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Foro Iberoamericano de Logística y Puertos, Panama, September
19 2013
Latin American Ports:
Logistical Challenges for a Post
Panama Canal Expansion Era
Jean-Paul Rodrigue Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra
University, New York, USA
Los Puertos Iberoamericanos en las Nuevas Rutas de Transporte Marítimo
Potential Impacts of Transoceanic Passages and Canals
Operational Impacts
• Improved capacity, reliability and transit time.
• Lower unit costs.
Substitution Impacts
• Cargo diversion.
• Changes in routing and transshipment.
Induced Impacts
• New and expanded trade relations.
• Development of transshipment hubs and logistics zones.
Problem: Trying to Estimate Induced Impacts from a Derived
Demand Issue
• What merchandise trade will be the most impacted? Container, dry bulk or liquid bulk?
• Which opportunities for which countries and ports?
• Who benefits and who loses?
• What impacts on transshipment?
Induced impacts
questions
• Is the expansion a marginal or significant change?
• On the short and long term, how the expansion of the Panama Canal will impact the strategies of its existing and potential users?
Derived demand impacts
questions
The Panama Canal Expansion: Myths
MYTHS
More traffic.
Creates trade.
Economic development.
Magical effects.
The Panama Canal Expansion: Realities
REALITIES
Potential for economies of scale.
Potential for new shipping routes.
Potential for new trade relations.
Potential for more transshipment.
Evolution of Containerships: The New Panamax
Early Containerships (1956-)
Panamax (1980-)
Post Panamax (1988-)
New Panamax (2014-)
Fully Cellular (1970-)
Panamax Max (1985-)
Post Panamax Plus (2000-)
Post New Panamax (2006-)
Triple E (2013-)
500 – 800 TEU
1,000 – 2,500 TEU
3,000 – 3,400 TEU
3,400 – 4,500 TEU
4,000 – 5,000 TEU
6,000 – 8,000 TEU
12,500 TEU
15,000 TEU
18,000 TEU
200x20x9
137x17x9
215x20x10
250x32x12.5
290x32x12.5
285x40x13
300x43x14.5
366x49x15.2
400x59x15.5
397x56x15.5 ; 22–10–8 (not shown)
(LOA – Beam – Draft)
10
8
23
20
10
6
6
9 17
5
9 15
6
8 13
5
6 13
10
4
5
8 4
6 4
6 containers across
4 containers high on deck
4 containers high below deck
A
B
C
D
E
meters
Global Exports and Container Throughput, 1980-2011
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
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R² = 0.9675
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Cont
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r Th
roug
hput
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mill
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of T
EU)
Exports in Current $US
Billones
Global Trade Stalling and Diverging
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40.0
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120.0
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160.0
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CPB World Trade Index by Volume, 1991-2013 (2005=100)
World Trade
Imports (Advanced Economies)
Exports (Emerging Economies)
Latin America (Exports)
The North American East and West Coasts Dominate…
… but Growth has Shifted to South America / The Caribbean
Emerging Global Maritime Freight Transport System
Main Routing Alternatives between the Pacific and Atlantic
Main Routing Alternatives between East Asia and Northern
Europe
Panama’s Changing Role in the Global Transport System
Transit (Pre 1914)
Tollbooth and Connectivity (1914-1990s)
Transshipment Hub (1990s-
2000s)
Value-added Logistics Hub
(2010s-?)
Proposed Routes for the Nicaragua Canal
Constructions costs? Political risks? Market potential? Competition?
Challenges to the Expansion of the Panama Canal
Issue Challenge
Aggregate demand Potential shift in demand growth patterns (less growth in North America and
more growth in Latin America)
Maritime shipping Higher shipping costs and slow steaming; Tolls taking a large share of the
benefits of economies of scale
Economies of scale Less ship calls and traffic concentration
Transshipment hubs Changes in the transshipment dynamics (hub concentration);
"Funnel effect" towards Panama
West Coast Ports Improved competitiveness of West Coast ports through better hinterland
access
Railways Improved competitiveness of North American rail corridors;
Emerging dichotomy between East Coast and West Coast railways
Gateways New points of entry to service markets (e.g. Lazaro Cardenas, Prince Rupert)
Suez Canal Increasing competitiveness of the Suez Route;
Potential of the Cape Route
Sourcing Changes in sourcing strategies (e.g. near sourcing)