Latin America Economic Outlook - coface.com.ecCoface+Latino+Americ… · Latin America –...
Transcript of Latin America Economic Outlook - coface.com.ecCoface+Latino+Americ… · Latin America –...
Latin America – Economic Outlook
May, 2015
Patricia Krause
Latin America – Breakdown
Others
Ecuador
Peru
Venezuela
Chile
Colombia
Argentina
Mexico
Brazil
8%
2%
4%
4%
5%
7%
11%
22%
39%
Regional GDP Composition (Latam and Caribbean – 32 countries)
8 countries contribute with 92% of regional GDP
Global representativeness: 8.3% of world GDP
Source: IMF
Macro fundamentals improved in
recent decades
Major commodity exporter
Poor infrastructure
Lower commodity prices
Freefall oil prices
Strengthening US dollar
Features vs Current Scenario
2015 - Sluggish and Uneven Growth
5.4% 5.5%
3.8%
-1.3%
6.1%
4.2%
2.7% 2.7%
1.3%
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Latin America Pacific Countries Mercosur
Source:National Statistic Institutes
Exports – Dependence on Exports
Latam Exports as a share of GDP Commodities as a share of Latam Exports (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mexico Brazil Argentina Chile Colombia Ecuador Peru
Mining/Metals Agro Oil Exports
Mexico Chile Ecuador Peru Colombia Argentina Brazil
31% 29%
27%
19%
14% 13%
10%
Strong Currency Depreciation
Currencies vs USD (% from 30/04/2014 – 30/04/2015)
Where it comes from?
Impacted by the US dollar recent strengthening
Lower commodities prices
Notably stronger in Brazil due to confidence crisis
Who could be benefited by the strong depreciation?
Manufaturing industry
Latam Main Commodities
Price Variation 1 Year 5 Years
Iron Ore -50% -67%
Crude Oil (Brent) -48% 34%
Soya -34% 0.6%
Copper -11% -23%
Sources:Indexmundi and CentralBanks
Brazil Colombia Mexico Peru Chile
-33%
-24%
-18%
-11%
-8%
Lackluster manufacturing segment
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
jan/14 feb/14 mar/14 apr/14 may/14 jun/14 jul/14 aug/14 sep/14 oct/14 nov/14 dec/14 jan/15 feb/15
Colombia
-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
jan/14 feb/14 mar/14 apr/14 may/14 jun/14 jul/14 aug/14 sep/14 oct/14 nov/14 dec/14 jan/15 feb/15
Peru
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
feb/14 mar/14 apr/14 may/14 jun/14 jul/14 aug/14 sep/14 oct/14 nov/14 dec/14 jan/15 feb/15 mar/15
Mexico
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
feb/14 mar/14 apr/14 may/14 jun/14 jul/14 aug/14 sep/14 oct/14 nov/14 dec/14 jan/15 feb/15 mar/15
Brazil
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
feb/14 mar/14 apr/14 may/14 jun/14 jul/14 aug/14 sep/14 oct/14 nov/14 dec/14 jan/15 feb/15 mar/15
Chile
Poor Infrastructure undermines the manufacturing segment
Investment Rate (%)
Sources:IMF and World Economic Forum *data from the Survey of 2013-2014 (148 countries)
Quality of Infrastructure
Peru
Colombia
Argentina
Ecuador*
Brazil
Panama
Chile
89
88
84
79*
76
46
49
91
75
72
94
71
40
35
2006 (sample: 125 countries) 2015 (sample: 144 countries)
15,0
17,0
19,0
21,0
23,0
25,0
27,0
29,0
31,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Equador Mexico Peru
Up to now controlled current account deficit
The Fed rate hikes will have a negative impact on capital flows into the region
Sources:National IMF and Central Banks
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru
-0,9%
-3,9%
-1,2%
-5,2%
-0,6%
-2,1%
-4,1%
1,0%
2,9%
8,5%
4,2%
0,8%
1,8%
3,7%
Current Account (%of GDP) Foreign Direct Investment (% of GDP)
GDP Forecast Along the Region
Sources:Coface
Argentina Brazil Chile Colômbia Equador México Peru Venezuela
2.9% 2.7%
4.2%
4.9% 4.5%
1.4%
5.8%
1.3%
-1.5%
0.1%
1.9%
4.6%
3.8%
2.1% 2.4%
-3%
-1% -0.5%
2.5%
3.8%
1.5%
3.1%
4.2%
-7%
2013 2014 2015
Country assessments: Latin America economies
11
2011 2012 2013 2015
March March March March June October December March
Chile A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2
Brazil A3 A3 A3 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4
Colombia A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4
Mexico A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4
Panama A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4
Peru A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 B
Uruguay A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4
Ecuador C C C B B B B B C
Argentina C C C C C C C C C
Bolivia C C C C C C C C C
Paraguay C C C C C C C C C
Venezuela C C C C C D D D D
Country
Assesment
2014
Business
Climate
Latam – Sectoral Assesment
Sectorial Assesment October 2014 March 2015
Agro-food
Retail
Textile-clothing
Metals
Automotive
Construction
Chemicals
Pharmaceuticals
Moderate risk High risk
Medium risk Very high risk
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