The Atlanta Regional Commission’s “The Quarter” looks at some of the leading indicators of overall economic health from a non-economist’s view. It compares Atlanta to other metropolitan areas and looks at the counties within the region where the data allow. While this is not a comprehensive look at the local economy, it is a gauge of the general direction the economy is moving.

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ATL

US

Source: BLS

Atlanta continues to outperform the nation in terms of year-over-year employment changes going into June 2013. This is an improvement from figures during the Great Recession (Dec 2007 – June 2009, officially), where Atlanta’s performance was worse than the national average.

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2

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6

Jan

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ATL

US

Atlanta continues to outperform the nation in terms of year-over-year employment changes going into June 2013. This is an improvement from figures during the Great Recession (Dec 2007 – June 2009, officially), where Atlanta’s performance was worse than the national average.

Source: BLS

Month-by-Month Total Employment (in thousands) September 2006 – June 2013

Source: BLS

2100.0

2150.0

2200.0

2250.0

2300.0

2350.0

2400.0

2450.0

2500.0

Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13

Overall employment levels continue to improve into June 2013, reaching ever-closer to the peak of pre-recession levels.

Month-by-Month Total Employment (in thousands) September 2006 – June 2013

Overall employment levels continue to improve into June 2013, reaching ever-closer to the peak of pre-recession levels.

Source: BLS

2100.0

2150.0

2200.0

2250.0

2300.0

2350.0

2400.0

2450.0

2500.0

Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13

DEC ‘07: 2477.6

JUN ‘13: 2412.8

Annual Percent Change: Employment in High-Paying Sectors in Metro Atlanta

Percent Change

Percent Change

Percent Change

Percent Change

Overall, employment in key sectors continues to remain in positive territory, on a year-over-year basis. Wholesale Trade experienced slight decline in second quarter.

Source: BLS

-12.0-10.0

-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0

De

c-0

8

Mar

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Jun

-09

Sep

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c-0

9

Mar

-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

De

c-1

0

Mar

-11

Jun

-11

Sep

-11

De

c-1

1

Mar

-12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

De

c-1

2

Mar

-13

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-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

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c-0

8

Mar

-09

Jun

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-09

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c-0

9

Mar

-10

Jun

-10

Sep

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c-1

0

Mar

-11

Jun

-11

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-11

De

c-1

1

Mar

-12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

De

c-1

2

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

De

c-0

8

Mar

-09

Jun

-09

Sep

-09

De

c-0

9

Mar

-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

De

c-1

0

Mar

-11

Jun

-11

Sep

-11

De

c-1

1

Mar

-12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

De

c-1

2

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Professional/Business

Information Finance

Wholesale Trade

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

De

c-0

8

Mar

-09

Jun

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9

Mar

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Jun

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Mar

-11

Jun

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Sep

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c-1

1

Mar

-12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

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c-1

2

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Total Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

Source: GA DOL

Initial unemployment insurance claims are spiky – with spikes usually occurring in January due to seasonal layoffs after the holidays. June figures are preliminary, but the trend of declining UI claims continues, and is starting to normalize toward pre-recession levels.

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jan

-01

May

-01

Sep

-01

Jan

-02

May

-02

Sep

-02

Jan

-03

May

-03

Sep

-03

Jan

-04

May

-04

Sep

-04

Jan

-05

May

-05

Sep

-05

Jan

-06

May

-06

Sep

-06

Jan

-07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan

-08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan

-09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan

-10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May

-13

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jan

-01

May

-01

Sep

-01

Jan

-02

May

-02

Sep

-02

Jan

-03

May

-03

Sep

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Jan

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May

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Sep

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Jan

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Sep

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Jan

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May

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Sep

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Jan

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May

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Sep

-07

Jan

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May

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Sep

-08

Jan

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May

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Sep

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Jan

-10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May

-13

Total Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

Initial unemployment insurance claims are spiky – with spikes usually occurring in January due to seasonal layoffs after the holidays. June figures are preliminary, but the trend of declining UI claims continues, and is starting to normalize toward pre-recession levels.

Source: GA DOL

Monthly Building Permits – Metro Atlanta

Source: SOCDS

The metro Atlanta housing market is still weak, but it is rebounding. There were 2,804 residential permits issued in June of this year. In contrast, there were over 6,100 residential permits issued in June of 2006.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Total Building Permits Issues – 2013 YTD (Through June) Top 15 Metros

Atlanta rises to the 4th highest in the nation in terms of residential permits issued into 2013. Permitting is still much lower compared to pre-recession levels, but these data indicate Atlanta’s resiliency in the midst of economic recovery.

Source: SOCDS

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Las Vegas

Chicago

Philadelphia

Boston

Charlotte

Orlando

Phoenix

Los Angeles

Austin

Miami

Washington DC

Atlanta

Dallas

New York

Houston

County-By County: Total Building Permits Issued 2011-2013 (2013 is Through June)

All jurisdictions are seeing significantly higher permitting activity through June of 2013, with some jurisdictions already surpassing 2012 (entire year) figures. Fulton County has issued the most residential permits thus far in 2013, with the majority in the City of Atlanta.

Source: SOCDS

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002011

2012

2013

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Metro Atlanta: 2000 - Current

Home prices have been rebounding since the beginning of 2012. In metro Atlanta, figures are up to 2001 levels, and are continuing to rise in the second quarter.

Source: Case-Shiller Index

80

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Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Metro Atlanta: 2000 - Current

Home prices have been rebounding since the beginning of 2012. In metro Atlanta, figures are up to 2001 levels, and are continuing to rise in the second quarter.

Source: Case-Shiller Index

80

90

100

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130

140

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Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Home Price Decline Since Peak

Atlanta’s decline in home prices is at 22.6% since the peak, but the trend indicates improving conditions from last quarter. Denver and Dallas have completely recovered from the recession, showing home prices higher today that are higher than the previous, pre-Recession peak.

Source: Case-Shiller Index

-51.4%

-41.7%

-40.7%

-39.3%

-33.3%

-30.1%

-28.3%

-27.9%

-24.4%

-24.3%

-23.3%

-22.9%

-22.6%

-26.4%

-20.1%

-18.6%

-16.6%

-11.2%

0.9%

-60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0%

NV-Las Vegas

FL-Miami

AZ-Phoenix

FL-Tampa

MI-Detroit

IL-Chicago

CA-San Diego

CA-Los Angeles

Composite-20

MN-Minneapolis

NY-New York

CA-San Francisco

GA-Atlanta

DC-Washington

WA-Seattle

OR-Portland

OH-Cleveland

MA-Boston

NC-Charlotte

CO-Denver

TX-Dallas

0.5%

-10.7%

Foreclosure Filings (Through June) 2010 – 2013

In every county, foreclosures are lower in 2013, thus far, when compared to the same period in the previous three years.

Source: Equity Depot

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2010

2011

2012

2013

Office Vacancy Rate – Metro Atlanta 2000 - current

The recession earlier this decade drove up office vacancy rates for the next few years, and they never returned to their pre‐recession levels. Vacancy rates continue to be higher than the highest levels experienced during the last recession. However, vacancy is continues to trend slightly downward.

Source: CoStar

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20

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Total Net Absorption of Office Space – Metro Atlanta 2000 - current

There have now been nine consecutive quarters with positive net absorption (more occupied office space at the end of the quarter compared to the beginning). Absorption levels still are significantly lower than they were pre-recession, however.

Source: CoStar

(3,000,000)

(2,000,000)

(1,000,000)

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

Number of Retail Buildings Under Construction– Metro Atlanta 2000 - current

As with residential building, construction of retail buildings is also way down when compared to historical trends, with practically no construction activity observed since the end of 2008.

Source: CoStar

0

50

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150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500