latest 7 days 9 15th 15,076...Wrenthorpe and Outwood West 40 48 61 111 107 67 44 49 29 22 -7...
Transcript of latest 7 days 9 15th 15,076...Wrenthorpe and Outwood West 40 48 61 111 107 67 44 49 29 22 -7...
-
Page 1 Prepared by Wakefield Public Health Intelligence Team: [email protected]
Overview of COVID-19 in
Wakefield District Data Released: 21th December 2020. Latest data: 15th December 2020 (data is available up to 18th December but the last four days
are excluded because they are incomplete and therefore inaccurate).
Key facts about COVID-19 in Wakefield:
COVID local tier level: Tier 3 - Very High Alert
Cases data: latest 7 days 9th December – 15th December
536 cases in the last 7 days
(previous 7 days = 561 cases)
153.9 cases per 100k population
(previous 7 days = 161.1)
15,076 cases since beginning of March
Deaths data: latest 7 days 9th December – 15th December
28 deaths in the last 7 days (previous 7 days = 34 deaths)
567 deaths since beginning of March
Hospital data: latest snapshot day 15th December
117 Wakefield COVID-19 patients in a Mid-Yorkshire Hospital bed (previous date = 123)
mailto:[email protected]
-
Page 2 Prepared by Wakefield Public Health Intelligence Team: [email protected]
Local COVID tier level
Wakefield is currently classified as a Tier 3 – Very High Alert area.
Since the 2nd December a local restriction tier system has been in place in England. The local COVID
tier level is decided by assessing Local Authorities using a number of measures, including the case
rate, case rate trend, how many tests are returning a positive result and pressures on the NHS. Areas
are then categorised into one of three tiers:
Tier 1: Medium alert – for areas where national restrictions continue to be in place, with no
additional measures.
Tier 2: High alert – for areas with a higher or rapidly rising level of infections, where some
additional restrictions need to be in place.
Tier 3: Very High alert – for areas with very high or very rapidly rising level of infections, where
tighter restrictions are in place. In Tier 3 the restrictions include:
o You must not must not meet socially indoors or in most outdoor places with anybody
you do not live with, or who is not in your support bubble, this includes in any private
garden or at most outdoor venues.
o You must not socialise in a group of more than 6 in some other outdoor public spaces,
including parks, beaches, countryside accessible to the public, a public garden, grounds
of a heritage site or castle, or a sports facility – this is called the ‘rule of 6’.
o Hospitality settings are closed – they are permitted to continue sales by takeaway or delivery services.
o Indoor entertainment and tourist venues must close. o Leisure and sports facilities may continue to stay open, but group exercise classes
(including fitness and dance) should not go ahead. o Avoid travelling outside of your area, including for overnight stays other than where
necessary, such as for work, education, youth services, to receive medical treatment, or because of caring responsibilities.
The full list of restrictions and further details on each Tier can be accessed here: Local restriction tiers: what you need to know - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
The next review point for the current tier allocations will take place by Wednesday 30th December.
However, on 25th December only, you will be able to create a Christmas bubble with up to three households. It is important to be sensible and cautious when creating your bubble, avoiding contact with vulnerable and elderly people where possible. From midnight on 26th December, Wakefield will be back under Tier 3 restrictions.
Testing and positive cases (Data up to 15th December)
Background:
There are different ways people can be tested for COVID-19; some are done through NHS labs and
hospitals (known as Pillar 1), most is done through ‘community’ testing (known as Pillar 2).
mailto:[email protected]://www.gov.uk/guidance/local-restriction-tiers-what-you-need-to-knowhttps://www.gov.uk/guidance/local-restriction-tiers-what-you-need-to-know
-
Page 3 Prepared by Wakefield Public Health Intelligence Team: [email protected]
When COVID-19 testing data was first published it related only to Pillar 1, this has changed and
testing numbers now include both Pillar 1 and Pillar 2. The changes in the way testing data has been
reported means it can be difficult to compare rates, either over time or between areas, it’s really
important to check the rates being compared relate to the same testing data.
Cumulative testing information is often reported, although this tells us about how many people have
been tested and diagnosed since the pandemic started, it doesn’t reflect current infection rates, so
isn’t very meaningful when looking at what needs to be done now to make sure we protect our
population as best we can.
Since the start of the pandemic around 15,076 Wakefield residents have tested positive.
When looking at testing data, the most useful information is about what’s happening now and what
has happened in recent weeks. This is because it tells us something about how the virus is currently
affecting our population and if the situation is changing (improving or getting worse).
Latest data and trend:
In the last week 536 Wakefield residents tested positive for COVID-19, this is for the period 9th
December – 15th December. Wakefield had a positive case rate of 153.9 per 100,000, which is a
decrease on the previous week (rate of 161.1). Previous weeks’ figures may change due to PHE
validation processes.
Over the last few weeks the rate in Wakefield has started to decrease. This indicates that the tighter
restrictions are starting to have a positive impact on reducing community transmission in the district.
mailto:[email protected]
-
Page 4 Prepared by Wakefield Public Health Intelligence Team: [email protected]
Comparison with other areas:
Despite this large increase in cases, when comparing to similar areas Wakefield is around average. It’s
useful to compare against these areas as they have similar population structures and levels of
deprivation, so you would expect these areas to experience similar rates to Wakefield.
Please note the data used to compare Wakefield with other areas is slightly older than the latest
position available for just Wakefield (between 7th December and 13th December)1, therefore the rate
for Wakefield presented here is different to the rate shown above.
When comparing Wakefield to other areas in the Yorkshire and Humber the positive case rate is
around average, the rate is lower than West Yorkshire neighbours Calderdale, Bradford and Kirklees.
Areas within Wakefield District:
Positive cases and rates are highly affected by things like testing availability, proactive testing
programmes, testing choices, the characteristics of people living within areas and the size of the
population. All these things make it difficult to compare between small areas and caution needs to
be taken when looking at cases by ward. For example a higher number of cases in one ward could be
caused by more people living in that area or the result of increased testing. Testing groups of people
who don’t have symptoms, because they have been assessed as having an increased risk of exposure
to the virus helps stop the spread of the virus but can result in higher positive case rates.
To maintain confidentiality we are required to suppress numbers when they are below three, this
means zero counts may not indicate there have been zero cases. This is important when comparing
between areas, but also when looking at the number of cases within an area over time.
All wards within Wakefield District have had positive cases in the last 7 days; although numbers are decreasing this indicates there is still consistent community transmission occurring in the district.
1 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/covid-19-surveillance-reports
mailto:[email protected]://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports
-
Page 5 Prepared by Wakefield Public Health Intelligence Team: [email protected]
Pontefract North had the highest number of cases in the last seven days, however this is due to
specific outbreaks in that area rather than community transmission.
The number of people living in a ward impacts on the number of cases; more people will probably
result in more cases. Rates are used to take the size of the population into consideration making it
easier to compare between areas. However, these rates don’t take differences in testing or
differences in population characteristics (such as underlying health conditions) into account; caution
is still needed when interpreting this information.
mailto:[email protected]
-
Page 6 Prepared by Wakefield Public Health Intelligence Team: [email protected]
Most wards have seen a decrease in the number of cases in recent weeks. In the last 7 days the ward of Airedale and Ferry Fryston (+12) has seen
an increase. This is due to specific outbreaks, rather than community transmission. The majority of wards have had a decrease, this is a trend that
has continued for the last few weeks. These figures need to be interpreted with caution; they are subject to change because of the delays in data
processing and are highly affected by testing.
Number of positive cases by ward in the last 10 weeks
07/10/2020 14/10/2020 21/10/2020 28/10/2020 04/11/2020 11/11/2020 18/11/2020 25/11/2020 02/12/2020 09/12/2020
Ackworth North Elmsall and Upton 51 76 97 67 98 75 40 34 28 25 -3
Airedale and Ferry Fryston 26 34 64 91 75 53 25 27 17 29 12
Altofts and Whitwood 39 68 98 86 103 81 58 28 20 29 9
Castleford Central and
Glasshoughton 43 58 70 96 111 77 43 21 27 25 -2
Crofton Ryhill and Walton 48 45 57 72 71 48 41 33 31 34 3
Featherstone 49 89 90 78 66 65 57 31 23 23 0
Hemsworth 50 108 105 121 107 112 48 40 36 32 -4
Horbury and South Ossett 37 46 51 91 82 63 36 19 21 13 -8
Knottingley 35 52 54 81 75 66 52 38 19 27 8
Normanton 46 56 60 71 82 102 60 45 18 27 9
Ossett 48 49 65 60 138 95 35 33 21 29 8
Pontefract North 57 84 110 91 105 64 52 30 64 35 -29
Pontefract South 45 69 82 70 72 45 37 24 21 18 -3
South Elmsall and South Kirkby 51 87 94 77 93 71 51 28 21 20 -1
Stanley and Outwood East 43 65 77 89 96 68 46 18 15 22 7
Wakefield East 31 42 65 78 91 48 56 35 37 37 0
Wakefield North 51 35 62 92 66 53 69 42 21 17 -4
Wakefield Rural 41 69 61 85 78 68 48 33 22 23 1
Wakefield South 30 48 50 54 54 48 37 23 25 25 0
Wakefield West 18 59 42 65 47 50 49 42 45 24 -21
Wrenthorpe and Outwood West 40 48 61 111 107 67 44 49 29 22 -7
District average 879 1287 1515 1726 1817 1419 984 673 561 536 -25
Change in
cases from
previous 7
days
Week commencing
Ward name
OLDEST LATEST
Note:
Numbers below 3 have been suppressed to maintain confidentiality, zero may not mean zero cases.
These figures need to be interpreted with caution; they are subject to change because of the delays in data processing and are highly affected by testing. This is
particularly important when comparing areas or changes over time.
mailto:[email protected]
-
Page 7 Prepared by Wakefield Public Health Intelligence Team: [email protected]
Patients in hospital with COVID-19:
The number of people in a hospital bed with COVID-19, is an indicator of the additional pressure on
our health system caused by the virus. It’s an indicator of the pressure because not everyone who has
COVID-19 will require hospital treatment, many people will require other support from our health
system (including GPs and pharmacy services), but don’t get admitted to hospital. For those who do
get admitted to hospital, COVID-19 brings additional challenges. This is because it’s a highly infectious
disease and that means extra measures and resources are needed to minimise the risk of the
infection spreading.
Patients get admitted to, and discharged from hospital constantly. This can make measuring the
impact of COVID-19 difficult, because the picture is always changing. To allow us to look at the
current pressures and to look at how it’s changing a snapshot is taken. This is the number of
confirmed COVID-19 patients in a hospital bed at a specific point in time, we then look at this same
snapshot time over days and weeks.
The way hospital services are structured and paid for can also make it difficult. Hospitals often cover
much larger areas than a single local authority, they will look after patients who live in many different
places. In Wakefield our main hospital is provided by Mid-Yorkshire Hospitals NHS Trust (MYHT), who
run a network of hospital services across three sites, Pinderfields, Dewsbury and Pontefract. Patients
using these services will come from many of the surrounding areas, not just Wakefield. It’s important
to look at the total number of people in MYHT, because this will indicate the additional pressures on
the health system. On 15th December there were 193 patients in a MYHT hospital bed who had tested
positive for COVID-19, some of these may be receiving complex support. This is a decrease from the
previous snapshot in the previous week (203). Please note this data is subject to revisions and
previous weeks figures may be updated.
This trend is also shown when looking at patients in a MYHT hospital who are registered with a GP in
Wakefield.
mailto:[email protected]
-
Page 8 Prepared by Wakefield Public Health Intelligence Team: [email protected]
Deaths:
Since the start of the pandemic 567 Wakefield residents have had a death registered where COVID-19
contributed to the cause of death. This is a provisional figure and may change once the data has been
processed by ONS. There will be a delay in registration for some deaths, for example if it gets
referred to the coroner. In the last seven days 28 deaths were registered where COVID-19
contributed to the death.
We know that COVID-19 does not affect all population groups equally. Age has been shown to be the
most important risk factor in terms of death e.g. people aged 80 or older with COVID-19 were seventy
times more likely to die than those under 402.
Because age is such a big risk factor it’s important to take this into consideration when comparing
with other areas; areas with more old people are very likely to have higher rates of mortality. Data
from ONS shows that when age has been taken into consideration Wakefield has similar mortality
rates to other areas (for COVID-19 and all causes)3.
It’s not possible to provide ward level information about COVID-19 related deaths at the moment; the
number of deaths registered is currently too small to allow this.
2 PHE. Disparities in the risk and outcomes of COVID-19: Public Health England, 2020 3 Deaths involving COVID-19 by local area and socioeconomic deprivation: deaths occurring between 1 March and 31st July 2020
mailto:[email protected]://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/892085/disparities_review.pdfhttps://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand31july2020
-
Page 9 Prepared by Wakefield Public Health Intelligence Team: [email protected]
Frequently asked questions:
Why does the positive case rate vary so much between areas?
The positive case rate is influenced by the level of infection in an area and also by how well the
infection is being detected (the level of testing undertaken). Both of these things cause positive case
rates to vary between areas, but also over time. Because areas are undertaking different levels of
testing, it makes it impossible to say if higher positive case rates are because the virus is more active
in those areas, or if it’s because more testing has been done.
The positive case rate has changed, or it’s different to other areas, does this mean there is a
particular problem?
The level of infection in an area isn’t the only thing that influences the positive case rate. The amount
of testing that’s been done and the willingness of individuals to be tested also impact on the positive
case rate. In areas where lots of people choose to get tested or there have been proactive testing
drives, the positive case rate is likely to be higher compared to areas where this isn’t the case.
Why are there differences in the numbers being reported?
Information on testing and the positive case rate is available in different places, for example both
gov.uk and NHS Digital have data available on their websites. This is positive; it means information is
accessible to those wanting to understand more about the spread of the disease. However,
information published on different sites may not always cover the same time-period or show exactly
the same thing. It’s really important to look at the time period being used and the definition of the
measure being presented.
Why has the case rate that you reported for last week now changed?
The case rate is calculated for a 7 day period. Whilst the majority of tests are processed and returned
within a timely manner, there can be some cases that take longer to be reported. Cases are allocated
to a person’s area of residence (Local Authority that they live within), sometimes the data collected at
the time of sample can be insufficient to establish which local authority they are from. Subsequent
data cleansing and matching is carried out, which can result in people being assigned to a local
authority, or areas within a local authority later on. Both of these things mean that the number of
cases within a certain week can be updated after data quality checks have been carried out, and this
has the effect of changing the rates reported.
mailto:[email protected]
-
Page 10 Prepared by Wakefield Public Health Intelligence Team: [email protected]
Why is the case rate used to compare with other Local Authorities different to the latest
case rate reported here?
Local Authority case rates are published each week by Public Health England, this information is used
to compare Wakefield to other areas. More up-to-date information is available for Wakefield and
this is used to give the latest position for the number of infections and the case rate. The two sources
of information are based on slightly different time periods, therefore it’s unlikely the rates will be the
same.
How has the case rate been calculated?
The latest case rate information for Wakefield District has been calculated using the number of cases
detailed on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ and 2019 Mid-Year population estimates.
The number of cases are divided by the population, then multiplied by 100,000.
Why isn’t hospital information shown for people living in Wakefield?
The way NHS and hospital services are structured and paid for is different to local authorities. These
services often cover much larger areas than single local authorities. They look after patients who live
in many different places.
In Wakefield our main hospital is provided by Mid-Yorkshire Hospitals NHS Trust (MYHT). MYHT runs
a network of hospital services across three sites, Pinderfields, Dewsbury and Pontefract and patients
using these services will come from many of the surrounding areas, not just Wakefield.
As MYHT is our main hospital, they provide us with some summary information on hospital
admissions, as part of the contract that’s in place to pay for the services. However, some people living
in Wakefield District may also use hospital services that are paid for by other areas. It takes longer for
this information to be processed, it goes to the areas responsible for buying those services from those
hospitals first. This means it can take several months to collate information from all hospitals where
a Wakefield resident may have received treatment, we can’t provide an up-to-date picture for all
Wakefield resident admissions.
Why are the number of deaths different to those published elsewhere?
Information on the number of deaths involving COVID-19 is available in different places, for example
Public Health England4 and the Office for National Statistics3 have data available on their websites.
This is useful to those wanting to understand more about the impact of the disease on our
population. However, the numbers published on different sites may not show exactly the same thing,
or cover the same time period. It’s really important to look at the time period being used and the
definition of how the deaths data is being counted.
The Office for National Statistics count deaths that have been registered where COVID-19 is
mentioned anywhere on the death certificate5. Public Health England count deaths with a
laboratory-confirmed positive COVID-19 test. On the 12th August Public Health England introduced a
4 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ 5 https://www.ons.gov.uk/deathsinvolvingcovid19
mailto:[email protected]://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmay2020#measuring-the-data
-
Page 11 Prepared by Wakefield Public Health Intelligence Team: [email protected]
time limit on how long before a death a positive test needs to happen for it to be included6. This
change in definition used by Public Health England resulted in a smaller number of deaths being
counted and their published data was revised. The change in definition does not impact on the
figures we report.
In Wakefield we use the same definition as the Office for National Statistics; this means we can
produce up-to-date information and data isn’t delayed because of waiting for lab results or data
processing.
6 https://PHE_Data_Series_COVID-19_Deaths
mailto:[email protected]://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/908781/Technical_Summary_PHE_Data_Series_COVID-19_Deaths_20200812.pdf