LAPS Initialization of Models for Numerical Weather Prediction
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LAPS Initialization of Models for Numerical Weather Prediction
Isidora JankovModeling efforts related to HMT and simulations of MCSs
LAPS workshop Boulder, CO 25-27 October, 2010
Collaborators: Zoltan Toth, Tim Schneider, Dan Birkenheuer, Allen White, Martin Ralph, Steve Koch, Steve Albers, Huiling Yuan, Ed Tollerud, Tara Jansen, John Halley
Gateway
ESRL/PSD, NCAR/DTC, California DWR, NSSL, OHD, Western region WFOs and many others
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Goal is to improve forecasts of rain and snow and associated hydrology Uses local-state-federal, and private-public-academic partnerships
HMT WEST - Cool Season
HMT EAST – All Season, including Hurricane Landfall
HMT CENTRAL – Warm Season
Benefits: Accelerates improvements in QPF and flood forecasting, with impacts on transportation, ecosystems, emergency management, flood control and water supply. Science and field tests will advise on how best to fill gaps in observational and modeling systems.
HMT Overview
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o During the winter season significant precipitation events in California are often caused by land-falling “atmospheric rivers” associated with extra tropical cyclones in the Pacific.
o Atmospheric rivers are elongated regions of high values of vertically integrated water vapor over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans that extend from the tropics and subtropics into the extratropics and are readily identifiable using SSM/I.
o Due to the terrain steepness and soil characteristics in the area, a high risk of flooding and landslides is often associated with these events.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
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EXPERIMENT DESIGN 2009-2010
Nested domain: • Outer/inner nest grid spacing 9 and 3 km, respectively.• 6-h cycles, 120hr forecasts foe the outer nest and 12hr forecasts for the inner nest • 9 members (listed in the following slide)• Mixed models, physics & perturbed boundary conditions from NCEP Global Ensemble
• 2010-2011 season everything stays the same except initial condition perturbations?
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CORRESPONDING LAPS ANALYSIS FOR BOTH OUTER AND INNER NEST
Total Precipitable Water analyses
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QPF
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Example of 24-h QPF9-km resolution
9 members:ARW-TOM-GEP0ARW-FER-GEP1ARW-SCH-GEP2ARW-TOM-GEP3NMM-FER-GEP4ARW-FER-GEP5ARW-SCH-GEP6ARW-TOM-GEP7NMM-FER-GEP8
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HMT QPF and PQPF24-hr PQPF
0.1 in.
1 in.
2 in.
48-hr forecast starting at 12 UTC, 18 January 2010
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Xsect Reflectivity 06 Oct. 2010 18UTCLAPS GEP1 GEP2 GEP3 GEP4 GEP5 GEP6
00 hr
03 hr
06 hr
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9
00Z 06Z
LAM Forecast
Global Model Forecast
Global Model Analysis interpolated on LAM grid
PerturbationLegend
Forecast Time
Cycling Initial Perturbations –Link with DET
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00hr
03hr
06hr
Wind SpeedJuly 30 2010 00UTC
LAPS CYC NOCYC
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11
Cloud CoverageJuly 30 2010 00UTC
00hr
03hr
06hr
LAPS CYC NOCYC
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Initial Perturbations for HMT-10/11 “Cycling” GEFS (or SREF) perturbations
12
00Z 06Z
Global Model Analysis interpolated on LAM grid
LAM forecast driven by global analysis
Forecast Time12Z
Perturbations
Perturbations adjusted toward LAPS
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High resolution simulations of IHOP MCSs when using LAPS hot-start initialization
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Analysis6-hr Diabatically (LAPS) initialized
WRF-ARW forecast
13 June 2002
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Bias & ETS June 13 2002
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16 June 2002
3-hr ForecastAnalysis
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Bias & ETS June 16 2002
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2hr HOT FcstAnalysis 2hr NO-HOT Fcst
850 mb Analyzed and Simulated Reflectivity
16 June 2002
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W
L
800mb Radar Reflectivity
W is Windsor Tornado
L is Laramie Tornado
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00-03hr simulated reflectivity for 22 May 2005 initialized at 17 UTC
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QUESTIONS???
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Individual frame for the 17 UTC WRF run 00 hr 00 min
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Individual frame for the 17 UTC WRF run 00 hr 30 min
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Individual frame for the 17 UTC WRF run 01 hr 00 min
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ETS and Bias averaged over 8 events for configurations using various convective parameterizations
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Threshold (in.)
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LAPS IC
NAM IC
Jankov et al. 2007
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DATA AND METHODOLOGY
• Simulations of 8 International H2O Project (IHOP) MCS events were performed by using 12 km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with ARW dynamic core.
• Both diabatic Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) ‘hot’ start and 40km NAM analyses were used as initial conditions, while the boundary conditions were always from 40 km NAM output.
• The simulations were performed for various combinations of Convective, Microphysics and PBL schemes.
• The integrations were performed over the 24 hour period and over a limited domain of approximately 1500x1500 km.
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Downward Solar Radiation Fcst. vs. Observations
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ETS d
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IC- Initial Conditions (LAPS-Eta)PP- Physical Parameterization
Red-95%, Dark blue -90%, Grey-80%
ETS diff.
Initial conditions were changed and the model configuration was kept the same
Jankov et al. 2007
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ETS diff. 12-18 hr