Land Use/Cover Change Effects on Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks

Josep CanadellCSIRO, Canberra, Australia

[pep.canadell@csiro.au]

• APN project and GCTE/GCP• Carbon Emissions

• Indonesia• China• Fire emissions• Erosion and Riverine transport• Future emissions

• Carbon Sinks• Sink Mechanisms• Forest sinks in Japan

Outline

APN-GCTE Special Journal Edition:Land Use/Cover Change Effects on the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle in the Asian Pacific Region

“Science in China, Life Sciences – Series CEditors: Josep Canadell, Guangsheng Zhou, Ian Noble

APN Project: “Land Use Change and the Carbon Cycle in Asia [APN2000-02]”

Workshop: Kobe, January 2001

Commissioned Studies:Land Use Change and Carbon Cycle in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of East and Central Asia. Chuluun.

Carbon Budgets of Forest Ecosystems in Southeast Asia Following Disturbance and Restoration. Lasco.

Support the development of two Research Proposals for GEF-IPCC:An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Watershed areas

and communities in Southeast Asia. Lasco.Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment for Grassland Ecosystem and

Livestock Sector in Mongolia. Chuluun.

Carbon Emissions

HistoricallyTotal emissions of C

[deforestation and fossil-fuel burning]

450 PgC

From 1850 to 1990

Houghton et al. 1999, Houghton 1999, Defries et al. 1999, IPCC-TAR 2001

Global Emissions from Land Use Change

[180-200 PgC from land use change]

+ 90 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere

[40 ppm due to changes in land use]

90% due todeforestation[20% descrease

Forest Area]

124 Pg emitted due to land use change60% in tropical areas

%40 in temperate areas

1 Pg C = 1,000,000,000,000,000 g C(a billion tones)

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Annu

al N

et F

lux

of C

arbo

n (P

g)Net Annual Flux of Carbon from Changes in Land Use

Year

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

China

Africa

Latin America

Tropical Asia

Houghton 1999Houghton 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue, 2002

North America

6,3Fossil Fuel

An

nu

al E

mis

sio

ns

of

Car

bo

n (

Pg

C y

r

)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Land-use change

Land-use change & fossil fuels

Fossil fuels

Tropical Asia

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Land-use change

Land-use change & fossil fuels

Fossil fuels

China

-1

Annual C EmissionsTropical Asia andChina [1850-2000]

Houghton 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990An

nu

al f

lux

of

carb

on

(T

g C

yr

-1)

CroplandsShifting CultivationPlantationsIndustrial harvestFuelwood harvest

Tropical Asia

Houghton 2002 APN-GCTE Special Issue

Annual Flux of Carbon in Tropical Asia and China

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

An

nu

al f

lux

of

carb

on

(T

g C

yr

-1)

Degradation

Croplands

Industrial harvest

Fuelwood harvest

Plantations

China

[1850-2000]

Land cover C density

% of Natural Forest*

Carbon Pools Measured

Source of data

Oil-palm (10yrs)Oil-palm (10 yrs)Oil-palm (14 yrs)Oil-palm (19 yrs)CoffeeNatural forest

62311019618325

191031306-

Aboveground biomass

[30]

 

Mature agroforest (rubber jungle)5-yr old rubberOil palm plantationCoffee mixed gardenUndisturbed rainforest

104 

15.662.418390

27 4165-

Aboveground and below ground

[18]

Rubber agroforestsRubber agroforests with selected planting materialRubber monocultureOil palm monocultureNatural forest

116103

 9791254

4641 

3836-

Aboveground biomass and upper 30cm of soil

[17]

Rubber jungle 35.5 14* Aboveground biomass

[32]

Home gardens 35-40 20* Tree biomass [30]

Oil palm (30 yrs) 40.3 16* Aboveground biomass and necromass

[34]

Cinnamon 39 15* Aboveground biomass

[31]

Cinnamon 44 17* Aboveground biomass

[31]

C Density of various

land covers in Indonesia

Lasco 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issueand Commissioned Study 2001

Forest Fires and Carbon Emissions

30N-25N

25N-20N

20N-15N

15N-10N

10N-5N

5N-EQ

EQ-5S

5S-10S

10S-15S

15S-20S

20S-25S

25S-30S

Rel

ativ

e C

O m

ixin

g ra

tio (

ppb)

(a) Carbon monoxide (CO)100ppb

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3(b) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

SOI

Matsueda 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue

CO over Western Pacific at 10 Km [1993-2001]

Murdiyarso 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue

Frequency of Hot Spots

Jambi Province, Sumatra

River Transport of Carbon in the Godavari Basin, India

Fig. 2

Taiga

TemperateTropical

Semiarid Total

TO

C (

1012

g C

yr-1

)

0

25

50

75

200

300

400Global River Transport of C

60%

Con

cent

ratio

n (m

g C

l-1

)

0.1

1

10

DICPOCDOC

Flux

(x10

9 g C

yr

-1)

1

10

100

1000

Tributaries Main stream

Fig. 5

C Fluxes and ConcentrationsIn the Godavari Basin, India

Sarin

200

2AP

N-G

CTE

Issu

e

0.24 Pg yr-1

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1970

1995

2020

2045

2070

2095

Year

To

tal f

ore

st a

rea

(Mh

a) B1

A2

A1b

A1b_fastmigration

A1b_nonegfb

Land Covers and aCO2 in 2050 using IPCC-SRES

Agricultural Land Forest Area

CO2 Emissions [714 ppm – 1009 ppm]

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970

1995

2020

2045

2070

2095

Year

To

tal C

O2

emis

sio

ns

(Pg

C/y

r)

Scenarios:‘material consumption’ (A); ‘sustainability and equity’ (B)'globalisation’ (1) ‘regionalisation’ (2)

Leemans 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue

Carbon Sinks

% Difference in Net Primary Production [1870-1990][Existing - undisturbed land cover]

NPP loss NPP gain DeFries et al. 1989

- 0.8 - 1.7

IPCC 2001Schimel 2001

Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks [1990’s]

Pg C/yr

+ 0.6+ 0.3 + 0.7

- 0.8 - 1.7

IPCC 2001Schimel 2001

Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks [1990’s]

Pg C/yr

- 0.6- 0.3 - 0.7

Current Terrestrial Sinks Potential Driving Mechanisms

• CO2 fertilization• Nitrogen fertilization• Climate change• Regrowth of previously harvested forests

– Reforestation / Afforestation• Regrowth of previously disturbed forests

– Fire, wind, insects• Fire suppression• Decreased deforestation• Improved agriculture• Sediment burial• Future: Terrestrial Carbon Management (e.g., Kyoto)

Land Use/Cover Change

Canadell 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue

Carbon Stocks in Live Forest Vegetation [1950-1995]

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Live

Veg

etat

ion

(Pg

C)

Canada

Coterminous USEuro Russia

China

Asian Russia

Europe

Goodale et al 2002

Forest Expansion• Cropland abandonment• Declining logging• Reforestation

Fang et al. 2001

Between 1940’s and 70’s, C storage declined by 0.68 Pg C due to

forest exploitation policies

From late 1970’s to present, C storage has increased by 0.4 Pg C

due to policies of protection and timber production[+ 0.021 Pg C/yr]

0.38 Pg C comes from planted forests

Changes in Forest Carbon in China [1949-1998]

-175

-150

-125

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

Paddy land

Dryland

Forest

Scrubs and dwarf w

oodland

Others w

oodland

Grassland

Water

City, resident and construction

land

1992

1996

2000

Vegetation

Soil

1992 1996 2000

Land Use Change and C loss in NE China [1992-2000]

Wang 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue

Decrease forest area: 2.76104km2

Increase urban area: 2.32104km2 Potential max. loss of 273.2 Tg C

Alexandrove & Yamagata 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue

Net C Gain from Managed Forests in Japan [2000-2015]

70-yr RotationSink: 16 MtC/yr4% FF emissions

 Land use change and carbon cycle in arid and semi-arid lands of east and central Asia - Chuluun 

Changes in annual fluxes of CO2 in South Korea from 1990 to 1997:

contributions of energy consumption, land-use change, and forest regrowth – Dowon

Carbon Emissions and Sinks from and into Agro-Ecosystems– Lind Erda   

Carbon balance along Northeast China Transect (NECT-IGBP Transect). Guangsheng Zhou  

Carbon stock assessment for a forest-to-coffee conversion landscape in Sumber-Jaya (Lampung, Indonesia): from allometric equations to land use

change analysis. Meine van Noordwijk. 

Nepstad et al. 1999

Landsat TM image, Paragom.,1991, classified as forest and non-forest[Brazilian Government reportingmethodology] – 62% Forest

Same image,classified after ranch owners interviews:only 1/10 of the above forest was classified as undisturbed forest by human practices – 6.2% Forest

Hidden Deforestation: Carbon Implications

Forest Impoverishment:

- Surface fires (could be responsible for doubling C emissions during El Nino years)- Logging (4-7% of that of forest conversion)

Guo and Gifford 2002

Soil Carbon Responses to various Land Use Changes

Global - Meta-analyses of 71 studies

GCTE Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems [gcte.org]

GCTE Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems [gcte.org]

Global Change Effect s on Vegetation and Disturbance Regimes

Global Change, Agroecological Processes and Production Systems

Contemporary and Future Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks

Changing Biodiversity and itsConsequences on Ecosystem Functioning