Land Use & Population Growth

in Belize, Central AmericaModeling Future Impacts on

Ecosystems

~Eve Robinson, Dept. of Marine Science

Why Belize?

• Thesis• Glover’s Reef Marine

Reserve• Copepod & Reef Blenny

• Unique environments• Biological diversity

• Recent development• Tourism

0

5000

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15000

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25000

January

February

March

April

May

June Ju

ly

August

September

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To

uri

st A

rriv

als

1998 2000 2002

Belize

• Caribbean coast of Central America• Mountainous region and

extensive coastline• 6 districts

Belize

• Caribbean coast of Central America• Mountainous region and

extensive coastline• 6 districts

Ecosystems

• Marine• Second largest barrier reef in the World• Home to rare species • High biodiversity

• Terrestrial

• Protected Areas

Ecosystems

• Marine

• Terrestrial• 93% under forest cover• Mangroves• Tropical rain forests

• Protected Areas

Ecosystems

• Marine

• Terrestrial

• Protected Areas• Approx. 47% available land• Encompasses breeding grounds,

marine reserves, forest reserves,and sanctuaries

Protected Areas

Project Plan

Land Use• Urban• Agricultur

e

Population estimates

• Historical data

• Exponential growth

Model Builder• Relate land km2/person• Estimate land use

increase from population increase

Project Plan

Land Use per District

Population per

DistrictLand

(km2) per capita

Population

IncreaseNt = N0ert

Land Use

Increase

Land Use

• .e00 files

• DrainageRoadsCitiesLand Use

• Import errors

Land Use

• .e00 files

• DrainageRoadsCitiesLand Use

• Import errors

Population

• Evenly distributedbetween urban & rural areas

• Proportional growthin most districts

• Estimation by district

Year 2004

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Belize Cayo Corozal OrangeWalk

StannCreek

Toledo

Districts

Po

pu

lati

on

Year 2004

Year 2000

0

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20000

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90000

Belize Cayo Corozal OrangeWalk

StannCreek

Toledo

Districts

Po

pu

lati

on

Urban Rural

Population

• Population growth by exponential equation• Growth rate = 2.39%• Double the current population in less than 30 years

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100000

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1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

Progress

• Population estimates & growth• Land use files ArcGIS compatible• Implications of growth on protected

habitats• Urban/agricultural encroachment• Habitat loss

• Importance of modeling