Land Availability and Responsible Agricultural Investments...

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Land Availability and Responsible Agricultural Investments Food Security Challenges in the 21st Century: Focus on SSA

Mahendra Shah* and Gunther Fischer**•Director, Qatar National Food Security Programme and Senior Advisor, IIASA,

** Program Leader, Land Use Change and Sustainable Agriculture, IIASAAnnual Bank Conference on Land Policy and Administration

World Bank, Washington DC, 26-27th April 2010

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WHY

HOW WHERE

• Food Security• Energy security•Water Security• Government Investors• Private Sector Investors• Local Communities

• Land Purchase/Lease-RENT?• Large and Small Scale• Agricultural Technology.• Exports and Local Markets• Local Livelihoods• Responsible, Transparent• Benefits Sharing

• Developing Countries• Developed Countries• Cultivated Land: Yield Gaps

(Small Farms)• Grassland and Woodlands

(Small / Large farms)• Unprotected Forests ?

Responsible InvestmentsKnowledge: Informed Decisions

Responsible Domestic and International Agricultural Investments

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OVERVIEW

IIASA – FAO Agro-ecological (AEZ) and Socio-economic (BLS) Methodology and Modelling System

Global, Regional, National Results; SSA Regional and Country Results

For any food , fuel and feed crop or mix of crops assess and quantify sustainable rainfed production potential (Area, Yield, Production); + Irrigated Current and Potential Production

Low, Intermediate and High Agricultural Technology ( Seeds, Fertilizers, Labour, Mechanization etc)

Spatially demarcated current cultivated land and unprotected grasslands, woodlands and forest areas ( + Population Density; + Transport Costs to Local Market or Shipping Port ; Yield gaps on

current cultivated land); Impacts of future climate change : Adaptation and Mitigation Options

Information for Investors and RecipientsNet Value of production over temporal period; Land Rental Valuation; Land Purchase Valuation

AEZ-BLS: Impacts on International Prices, Land Use Change, Food Security and Hunger; Imports and Exports, GDP Ag, etc

2000 – 2010 - 2030 – 2050 – 2080 ( Annual Change)

A Proven AEZ – BLS Methodology

World Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture

IIASA - FAO METHODOLOGY and MODELING FRAMEWORK ( 1977-2010)Spatial Agro-ecological Assessment with world-wide coverage(AEZ)World Agriculture System Applied General Equilibrium Model(BLS)

Food Policy Analysis: global, regional, national, local

Land Resources for Populations of the Future, UNFPA/FAO/IIASA, 1983Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability, WSSD 2002 Johannesburg

Biofuels and Food Security, OPEC Seminar, 2009, ViennaCHINAGRO, 2007- 2010

Land Acquisition–Global Assessment, IIASA-WB, 2010 (in preparation)

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Land AcquisitionIIASA-WB

Forthcoming 2010

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IIASA Modeling Framework

Developmentscenario

Climate impactresponse relations

Production Demand

TradeGlobal

Food-Feed-Biofuel System

World Market

Climatemodel

De12

3

4

5

6

Agro-ecological suitability and land productivity

Spatial distribution of land use

FAO-IIASA Agro-ecological Zones Methodology

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1. Land Utilization types (LUTs) - Selected agricultural production systems with defined input and management relationships, and crop-specific environmental requirements and adaptability characteristics. These are termed Land Utilization Types (LUT);

2. Land Resources database - Geo-referenced climate, soil and terrain data which are combined into a land resources database;

3. Crop biomass and yield and LUT requirements matching - Procedures for the calculation of potential yields and for matching crop/LUT environmental requirements with the respective environmental characteristics contained in the land resources database, by land unit and grid-cell;

4. Assessments of crop suitability and land productivity, and

5. Applications for agricultural development planning.

Conceptual framework of Agro-ecological Zones methodology

Agro-ecological Zones MethodologyGeographical Data Layers

1. Monthly climatology 1960 – 1996; CRU at University of East Anglia; at 0.5 deg. latitude/longitude


2. Terrain slope database; USGS Eros Data Center; digital elevation at 30 arc-seconds latitude/longitude


3. FAO/Unesco digital Soil Map of the World; UN Food and Agriculture Organization; at 5 arc-min. latitude/longitude


4. Global land cover characteristics database; USGS Eros Data Center; at 1 km resolution.


5. Global gridded population distribution data of 1995; CIESIN; at 2.5 arc-min. latitude/longitude resolution.

Global Agro-ecological Zones

Environmental resources database

including climate, soil, terrain, and land cover

comprising 2.2 million grid cells,

assessing the agricultural potential

of all crops, pastures, trees, shrubs

at three levels of farming technology.

COUNTRY A

WORLD MARKETS

International pricesto satisfy:• commodity balances• financial transfer balance

COUNTRY B

COUNTRY ECOUNTRY DCOUNTRY C

EXCHANGEEQUILIBRIUM

Prices, consumption, stocks, netexports to satisfy:

• Budget constraint•Market clearance• Trade balance• Trade quota

GOVERNMENT POLICIESTarget price, tariffs, taxes, quota, etc.

PRODUCTIONNon-agriculture

productionAgricultureproduction

Production inputs:• Land • Fertilizer• Labour • Others• Capital

International commodity prices PW Net trade EA

PW

PWPWPW

EC ED EE

EB

The International Linkage in the World Food System Model

18 national models,2 country-group models,14 regional models

Commodities: wheat, rice, coarse grains, protein feed, bovine & ovine meat, dairy products, other animal products, other food, non-food agriculture, non-agriculture.

Linkage: trade, world market prices and financial flows

Environmental constraints to rain-fed agriculture, reference climate 1961-90

Environmental constraints to rain-fed agriculture, HadCM3-A1FI 2080s

Suitability for rain-fed cereals, reference climate 1961-90.

Change in suitability for rain-fed cereals, HadCM3-A1FI, 2080s

WHEAT MAIZE

MILLET,SORGHUM

Undefined> 25 % 5 to 25 %-5 to 5 %-25 to -5 %< -25 %Not suitableWater

Changes in Rain-fed Cereal PotentialReference climate vs climate of 2080sHadCM3-A2 Scenario

ALLCEREALS

India :Climate Change Yield Impact - 2080

Note: weighted yield impact for rain-fed and irrigated cultivation (% change).

Wheat Rice Maize Pulses Roots Oil SugarH3A1f -41.5 0.2 -2.5 6.1 -7.5 -5.3 -9.8H3A2 -36.6 -3.6 -3.1 1.4 -23.9 -8.8 -9.6H3B2 -20.8 -3.3 -2.8 3.0 -9.3 -6.5 -8.9H3B1 -15.6 0.5 -0.8 5.9 3.8 -0.6 -6.3

CSA1 -25.2 -0.1 -0.4 9.6 1.8 -2.4 -8.0CSA2 -25.8 -1.1 -1.0 6.7 -4.8 -4.5 -9.7CSB2 -18.3 -2.7 -1.2 5.6 -1.0 -4.7 -8.9CSB1 -17.3 -1.9 -1.6 5.3 -2.2 -4.0 -7.5

C2A2 -16.5 0.5 2.4 17.2 13.7 2.3 -9.9C2B2 -17.7 2.4 1.9 17.6 17.4 3.0 -7.5

NCA2 -32.5 4.5 0.6 13.7 19.7 0.3 -6.3NCB2 -19.4 4.0 -0.5 11.4 19.9 -0.4 -4.7

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Cereal GDP CerealProduction Agriculture Consumption

H3A1f -15.7 -4.8 -7.5H3A2 -15.9 -7.9 -6.4H3B2 -9.8 -4.4 -4.4H3B1 -5.7 -1.0 -3.8

CSA1b -9.6 -1.8 -4.6CSA2 -10.4 -3.9 -4.1CSB2 -8.2 -2.8 -4.9CSB1 -7.5 -2.7 -5.0

CSA2 -5.7 1.0 -2.2CSB2 -5.4 2.5 -1.2

NCA2 -10.3 0.9 -0.4NCB2 -5.7 1.9 0.1

India : Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture – 2080s

Note: percent change relative to respective reference projection without climate change

Table 3: Impact of climate change on land suitability and production of Cereals for rainfed culti

Current climate HadCM3 A2 2080s CSIRO A2 2080sArea Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield

mln ha mln tons t/ha % change % changeSub-Saharan Africa 188 1142 6.1 -8 -5 3 -11 -6 5Eastern Africa 67 402 6.0 -4 3 7 -10 5 17Middle Africa 34 224 6.6 -4 -3 1 -6 -2 5Western Africa 72 434 6.0 -10 -10 -1 -11 -13 -3Southern Africa 14 82 5.7 -24 -24 0 -25 -31 -8

Developed 446 401 5.8 1 -1 -1 2 6 4Developing 559 547 6.3 -6 -5 2 -5 -1 4

World 1004 6116 6.1 -3 -3 0 -2 2 4

Note: Results include CO2 fertilization and assume rational adaptation and transfer of crop types and

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Source: Fischer et al., 2002

Cereal Production, Net

Imports of Developing Countries

projected for different IPCC economic

development pathsPRODUCTION

NET IMPORTS,CEREALS

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

1990

2020

2050

2080

Cereal Production (million tons)

B1A1B2A2

0 100 200 300 400

1990

2020

2050

2080

Cereal Net Imports (million tons)

B1B2A2

Impacts of climate change on regionalnet irrigation water requirements in 2080

� 271 million ha irrigated out of total 1540 million ha cultivated (~ 18 %).� Agriculture uses 2630 billion m3 out of 3816 billion m3 annual water

withdrawals (~ 70%).� On average, annual global crop water deficit is 500 mm (i.e., 1350 billion m3 in

2000); about 970 mm water per irrigated hectare were applied.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

NAMWEUPAO

FSU+EEMDCAFRLAMCPASASPASLDC

WORLD

Irrigation (mm per year)

A2refClimateSeason

HADCM3 A2

South Africa: Climate Change Impacts (% change) on Indicators of Agricultural Water Use – 2080

Note: percent change relative to respective reference projection without climate change. Crop water requirements calculated as crop-specific potential evapotranspiration (plus extra allowance for paddy).

� 1.5 million ha irrigated out of total 15.7 million ha cultivated (~ 9.5 %)� Agriculture uses 8 billion m3 out of 12.5 billion m3 annual water withdrawals (~ 65%)� Internal WR 44.8 bln m3/yr, external WR 5.2 bln m3/yr, < 1000 m3 /cap/yr

Precipitation Crop Water Crop Water Internal WaterRequirements Deficits Resources

H3A2 -11,0 13,7 24,5 -26,1CSA2 -9,8 10,2 18,8 -22,3C2A2 -9,2 10,3 18,8 -21,4NCA2 -3,1 5,0 8,5 -9,2

H3B1 -11,0 9,6 18,6 -23,9CSB1 -6,3 7,3 13,1 -15,2

GLC2000(30 arc-seconds grid)

IFPRI(30 arc-seconds grid)

Potential agricultural production value for high

and intermediate input levelsCurrent cropping systems for rain-fed and irrigated

production

Production gaps between current production and potential productionunder respectively high and intermediate input levels

Nationalagricultural

statisticsby major crops(FAOSTAT and

AT 2015/30)

Current agricultural production value

Current cropping systems for rain-fed and irrigated

production

Shares Major Land Categories:(i) Rain-fed cultivated land, (ii) Irrigated cultivated land, (iii) Forest(iv) Pastures and shrubs, (v) Barren and sparsely vegetated land, (vi) Urban land + rural land required for housing and infrastructure

(5 arc-minute grid)

InventoryIrrigated areas

(30 arc-seconds grid)

2 1

7

9

12 11

Land cover ClassificationProcedures

Spatiallyexplicit estimation

of agricultural productionactivities

Spatial explicit prior information• Crop suitability (AEZ)• Population distribution• Farming system zones• Commodity prices• Availability of Inputs• Distance to market, etc.

Production GapAnalysis

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FRA2000(30 arc-seconds grid)

5

3

6

10

Protected areas and areas

required for settlement and infrastructure

4

8

0167333500667833100011671333150016671833200021672333250026672833300031673333350036673833>=4000

Down-scaling Results:Value of Agricultural Output per Grid-cell

OFID - IIASA Biofuels and Food Security Study, 2009

Mandates and TargetsCountry/Region

Mandatory, voluntary or indicative target

Australia At least 350 million liters biofuels by 2010

Canada 5 percent renewable content in gasolineby 2010

EuropeanUnion

5.75 percent by 201010 percent by 2020

Germany 6.25 percent by 201010 percent by 2020

France 7 percent by 2010, 10 percent by 2015,10 percent by 2020

Japan 0.6 percent of auto fuel by 2010;a goal to reduce fossil oil dependence oftransport sector from 98% to 80% by2030

New Zealand 3.4 percent target for bothgasoline and diesel by 2012

United States 12 billion gallons by 2010, risingto 20.5 billion gallons by 2015and to 36 billion gallons by 2022(with 16 billion gallons fromadvanced cellulosic ethanol) 26

Country/Region

Mandatory, voluntary or indicative target

Brazil Mandatory 25 percent ethanol blendwith gasoline; 5 percent biodiesel blendby 2010.

China 2 million tons ethanol by 2010increasing to 10 million tons by 2020;0.2 million tons biodiesel by 2010increasing to 2 million tons by 2020.

India 5 percent ethanol blending in gasolinein 2008, 10 percent as of 2009;indicative target of 20 percent ethanolblending in gasoline and 20 percentbiodiesel blending by 2017.

Indonesia 2 percent biofuels in energy mix by2010, 3 percent by 2015, and 5 percentby 2020.

Thailand 2 percent biodiesel blend by 2008, 10percent biodiesel blend by 2012; 10percent ethanol blend by 2012.

South Africa 2 percent of biofuels by 2013

OFID-IIASA study in a nutshell

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Upwards Pressure on World Food Prices: + 30 to 50% A Factor in Rising Hunger: + 140 Million peopleAbsorbing Cereal Production: + 260 Million tons (2030)

Benefits for Rural Development: + 3% to 8% GDPAMitigating Climate Change: -12.4 Gt CO2e over 50 yearsCompetition for Arable Land: + 30 to 45 Million haFueling Deforestation: + 15 to 18 Million haEnergy security: 6 to 12 % in transport fuel

Imperative for a transition from 1st to 2nd Generation Biofuels

Implications in 2020 of an accelerated biofuels production

Area % of globalCropland 243 mln ha 15.6Forests 519 mln ha 13.9Grass/woodland 1111 mln ha 24.4Other land 1074 mln ha 31.2TOTAL 2947 mln ha 22.1

Estimated Use of SSA Land in 2000

36%

18%

8% 1%

37% Grass/ShrubUnvegetatedForestCropsBuilt-up

29.5 29.126.7

21.5

11.0

10.5

5.2

2.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1 2 3 4 5

mill

ion

km2

Built-upCropsForestUnvegetatedGrass/Shrub

1 ... Total land (excl. Antarctica and Greenland)2 ... excluding built-up land3 ... excluding arable and perennial cropland4 ... excluding forests5 ... excluding barren land & water

Source: IIASA-LUC, 2007

How much land is available in SSA?

Too steep3%

Protected16%

Unproductive15%

Very marginal8%

Livestock& Bioenergy

58%

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Region TC< $30 TC $30 to $60 TC > $60 TOTAL GK$2000/Ha

SSA 30012 61285 106048 197345 1825

E. Africa 3691 15321 51848 70860 2022

M. Africa 2116 4781 28565 35462 1830

S. Africa 6308 7210 1335 14853 2041

W. Africa 17897 33972 24301 76169 1596

Suitable Area( VS + S + MS, 1000 Ha Average Yield

Region TC< $30 TC $30 to $60 TC > $60 TOTAL GK$2000/Ha

SSA 46912 109054 321396 477391 1760

E. Africa 14694 39795 157250 211740 1871

M. Africa 10195 21969 118323 150487 1772

S. Africa 5530 11026 6998 23554 1742

W. Africa 16492 36263 38826 91589 1491

Grassland and Woodland: Food Production Potential, High Technology

Current Cultivated Land: Food Production Potential, High TechnologyTranspsort Cost

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Region PD< 10 PD 10 to 25 PD> 35 TOTAL GK$2000/Ha

SSA 48509 48657 100197 197345 1825

E. Africa 19544 16702 34614 70860 2022

M. Africa 17689 9544 8229 35462 1830

S. Africa 4685 4998 5170 14853 2041

W. Africa 6592 17412 52165 76169 1596

Region PD< 10 PD 10 to 25 PD> 25 TOTAL GK$2000/Ha

SSA 224961 122368 130033 477391 1761

E. Africa 98785 54246 58709 211740 1871M. Africa 100487 33403 16596 150487 1772

S. Africa 12611 4642 6301 23554 1742

W. Africa 13078 30077 48427 91589 1491

Suitable Area( VS + S + MS, 1000 Ha) Average Yield

Current Cultivated Land: Food Production Potential, High Technology

Grassland and Woodland: Food Production Potential, High Technology

Population Density

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Population Density

< 10 per km210 - 25 per km2> 25 per km2Water

Density Of Ruminant Livestock in SSA

None< 11 - 55 - 1010 - 2020 - 5050 - 100100 - 200> 200Water

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Distance to Market

< 2h2h - 5h> 5hWater

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Transport Cost to Port ($/ton)

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Suitability for Rain-fed Maize

UndefinedSI > 85 : Very highSI > 70 : HighSI > 55 : GoodSI > 40 : Medium SI > 25 : ModerateSI > 10 : MarginalSI > 0 : Very marginalSI = 0 : Not suitableWater

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Suitability for Rain-fed Wheat


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Suitability for Rain-fed Sugarcane


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Suitability for Rain-fed Soybeans


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Suitability for Rain-fed Yams


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Suitability for Rain-fed Food Crops


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Potential Output Density of Food Crops (GK$/ha)

14%

48%

20%

18%

Protected

VS or S

MS

mS or NS

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Forest Land and its Suitability for Food Crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

(million ha)

Source: IIASA, 2010

514

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Water

Built-up

Barren

Non-forest

Forest

Cultivated

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Non-forest Land and its Suitability for Food Crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

(million ha)

Source: IIASA, 2010

1,085

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Water

Built-up

Barren

Non-forest

Forest

Cultivated

13%

25%

19%

43% Protected

VS or S

MS

mS or NS

14%

11%

13%62%

13%

25%

19%

43%Protected

VS or S

MS

mS or NS

45Source: IIASA, 2010

Food crops

Groundnut

Suitability of Non-forest Land in Sub-Saharan Africa

13%

2%

5%

80%

13%

21%

12%

54%

Wheat Maize

13%

20%

17%

50%

Soybean14%

4%

5%

77%

Sugarcane

Total Non-forest Land

=1085 mln ha

15%

27%

17%

41% Protected

VS or S

MS

mS or NS

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Non-forest Land and its Suitability for Food Crops in Eastern Africa

(million ha)

478

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Water

Built-up

Barren

Non-forest

Forest

Cultivated

Source: IIASA, 2010

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Non-forest Land and its Suitability for Food Crops in Western Africa

(million ha)

202

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Water

Built-up

Barren

Non-forest

Forest

Cultivated

Source: IIASA, 2010

9%

22%

23%

46%Protected

VS or S

MS

mS or NS

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Non-forest Land and its Suitability for Food Crops in Middle Africa

(million ha)

Source: IIASA, 2010

229

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Water

Built-up

Barren

Non-forest

Forest

Cultivated

14%

40%26%

20%

Protected

VS or S

MS

mS or NS

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Non-forest Land and its Suitability for Food Crops in Southern Africa

(million ha)

Source: IIASA, 2010

176

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Water

Built-up

Barren

Non-forest

Forest

Cultivated

15%

4%

9%

72%

Protected

VS or S

MS

mS or NS

21%

11%

9%

59%

Protected

VS or S

MS

mS or NS


78

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Water

Built-up

Barren

Non-forest

Forest

Cultivated

2%

27%

34%

37%Protected

VS or S

MS

mS or NS101

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Water

Built-up

Barren

Non-forest

Forest

Cultivated

Ethiopia

Sudan

Non-forest Land and its Suitability for Food Crops

18%

24%

38%

20%

Protected

VS or S

MS

mS or NS


D.R. Congo

Angola

Non-forest Land and its Suitability for Food Crops

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0.000

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

Water

Built-up

Barren

Non-forest

Forest

Cultivated

12%

61%

16%

11%

Protected

VS or S

MS

mS or NS

59

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Water

Built-up

Barren

Non-forest

Forest

Cultivated

17%

50%

18%

15%

Protected

VS or S

MS

mS or NS

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Suitability for Food Crops in Mozambique

Source: IIASA, 2010

6

25

45

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Water

Built-up

Barren

Non-forest

Forest

Cultivated

19%

49%

16%

16%

Protected

VS or S

MS

mS or NS

Million hectares

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Land by Classes of Population Density and Cost of Transport (million hectares)

Source: IIASA, 20101.7

3.72.6

2.5

3.1

1.1

2.7

2.7

0.6

1.2

1.6

1.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

< 30$ 30$ - 60$ > 60$

ProtectedPdens > 2510<Pdens<25Pdens < 10

2.9

7.86.2

3.4

5.0

2.33.7

4.4

0.9

1.8

3.1

3.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

< 30$ 30$ - 60$ > 60$

Protected

Pdens > 25

10<Pdens<25

Pdens < 10

Forest land (25 million ha)

Grass, scrub, wood land (45 million ha)

Note: The bars show the distribution of forest and non-forest vegetated land by broad classes of transport costs to port of export ($/ton). The color segments indicate broad classes of population density (persons/sqkm).

Mozambique

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Suitability of Land for Food Crops by Cost of Transport (million hectares)

Source: IIASA, 2010

Forest land (25 million ha)

Grass, scrub, wood land (45 million ha)

Note: The bars show the distribution of forest and non-forest vegetated land by broad classes of transport costs to port of export ($/ton). The color segments indicate suitability of land for rain-fed cultivation of food crops.

Mozambique

5.5

10.2

6.3

2.6

3.4

1.4

2.0

3.6

1.7

1.8

3.1

3.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

< 30$ 30$ - 60$ > 60$

Protected

mS or NS

MS

VS or S

4.15.7

2.7

1.7

2.1

0.7

1.1

1.7

1.0

1.2

1.6

1.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

< 30$ 30$ - 60$ > 60$

ProtectedmS or NSMSVS or S

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Concluding RemarksCurrent Cultivated Land

Closing the Yield Gap; Investments Partnerships and Contract Farming

“ New” Land Grasslands and WoodlandsCreate Opportunities for Nationals, reducing pressures in current cultivated land

Joint Venture partnerships with Investors, small and large farmsLand Lease Rental Valuation, Investors - Large Farms

Access to pertinent, comprehensive and timely information, Recipients and InvestorsPrinciples for responsible Domestic and International Agricultural InvestmentsCapacity building Recipients , assessment, policy analysis, negotiation skills

Due diligence and expert advise, multilateral institutions ( cf WB Inspection Panel)Universal Right to Food

Responsible International Agricultural InvestmentsAn end to a Century of Promises for a Food Secure World

Food Security: Ending a century of promises• 1905 International Institute of Agriculture• 1941 US Conference for Defense• 1943 Hot Springs Conference Food and Agriculture• 1948 Food as Human Right• 1972 Stockholm: Preserving & Enhancing the Environment

• 1973 First World Food summit• 1992 Rio Earth Summit• 1996 Second World Food summit• 2000 Millennium Summit• 2002 Third World Food Summit• 2009 World Food Security Summit

56Country Lead Food Security Programme

QNFSP

Qatar National Food Security Programme

FirstInvest in Enhancing Domestic Production

SecondResponsible International Investments


THANK YOU

QNFSP


FirstInvest in Enhancing Domestic Production

SecondResponsible International Investments

Land Availability and Responsible Agricultural Investments...

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