Land and Climate Goals€¦ · Cumulative differences in global land carbon stock (a) and land N 2O...

© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

StevenRose

EnergyandEnvironmentalAnalysisResearchGroup

Snowmass,COJuly21,2016

LandandClimateGoals

2 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Topics

§ Emissionssourceandabatementpoten9al

§ Realityandtryingtomodelitbe<er

§ Addi9onalmodelingissues


Emissionssourceandabatementpoten@al§ Prominentemissionssource§ Significantes9matedlong-runcost-effec9veabatementpoten9al–  e.g.,370-1250GtCO2cumula9veabatement2010-2100,15-40%oftotalabatement(ag,forest,&bioenergy)

§ Land-basedmi9ga9onexplicitlyincludedinmanyNDCs(n=117),e.g.,China,India,U.S.

§ But,–  Significantvaria9oninresults(abatementandland-use)–  Decliningabatementrolewithincreasedambi9on– Mostprojectedabatementoccurringindevelopingandtransi9onalcountries–  Idealizedpolicyassump9ons–immediate,comprehensiveglobalCO2epricingonalllandac9vi9es


Significantabatementpoten@al

IPCCAR5WG3Ch6(2014)


Land-usechangeuncertainty2030land-usechangeswithrespectto2005

IPCCAR5WG3Ch11(2014)


Bioenergy–landGHGtrade-offacceptableoverlong-run

-140-120-100-80-60-40-200

20

By2050 By2100 By2050 By2100

550ppm 450ppm

Diffe

renceincu

mulativeland

carbon

stock(GtCO

2)

G

I

M

R

T

W 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

By2050 By2100 By2050 By2100

550ppm 450ppm

Diffe

renceincu

mulativeland

N2O

emission

s(GtCO

2e)

G

I

R

Cumulative differences in global land carbon stock (a) and land N2O emissions (b) with default versus constrained bioenergy

Land carbon stock Land N2O emissions

Models are trading-off land carbon and increased N2O emissions for long-run

climate benefit of bioenergy


Reality

§ Accessingland-basedabatementpoten9alwillbedifficult§ Policyimplementa9onwillbechallenging– Coordina9on–sectors,regions,op9ons,9me,non-climatepolicies–  Ins9tu9ons–  Instruments

§ Issues–  Leakage– Costs– Non-climatesocialconcerns


Coordina@onchallengeb/wbioenergyandforest/agmi@ga@on

WITH global terrestrial carbon price From stabilization scenario with energy crop bioenergy incentives WITHOUT global terrestrial carbon price

Wise et al. (2009)

Price or protect all terrestrial carbon?

How?

Effect on the cost of bioenergy?

Other bioenergy feedstocks?


Coordina@onchallengeacrossregions

Staggered regional climate policies (w/ global terrestrial

carbon pricing) could produce land conversion

and emissions

Biomassfeedstock

land

Calvin et al. (2009)

Global land use in 2.6 W/m2 Delayed Accession with Overshoot scenario

(and terrestrial carbon pricing)


Coordina@onchallengeacrossregionsandac@vi@es

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055G

tCO

2(c

umul

ativ

e ga

ined

abo

ve b

asel

ine)

IdealAfforestationDC1 - developing aff to 2025DC2 - aff to 2025DC3 - nothing to 2025

Cumulative global forest carbon gains over time with different global forest carbon policy designs

($15/tCO2 + 5%/yr)

Idealized policy

Partial and delayed policies

Developed from Rose and Sohngen (2011)

Partial and/or delayed global forest carbon policies

could accelerate deforestation

Competition b/w avoided deforestation and afforestation, but

complementarities b/w afforestation and forest

management


Coordina@onchallengeacrossregionsandac@vi@es

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

0 1 2 3 4

$/tCO

2

GtCO2 /year

Brazil 2020 Intl Market Avoided Deforestation Supply

Economic potential

Sectoral-adjusted

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

$/tCO2

GtCO2

WithoutBrazilNAMAWithBrazilNAMAWithBrazilNAMAandDR

ROW 2020 Forest Sequestration Supply

Brazil avoided deforestation (RED) policy…

•  Reduces international abatement supply

•  Drives up forest carbon abatement costs for others

Copenhagen commitment: Reduce deforestation rate 80% by 2020 compared with the average rate over the

decade 1996–2005 (19,508 km2/year)


Ins@tu@onsaffectcosts–abatementprojectrisks

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Russia

Canada

Mexico and Tanzania Afforestation Russia & Canada Biomass Heat or Power

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Mexico

Tanzania

Rose et al. (in prep)

Projects have costs beyond those captured in global economic modeling – e.g., country and technology risks, transactions costs

100%=norisk

Current carbon project investment risks are

significant


Ins@tu@onsaffectcosts–abatementprojectrisks

Cumulative Carbon Gains* Above Baseline by 2020 ($15/tCO2)

Economicpotential(GtCO2)

Marketpotential(GtCO2)

%ofeconomicpotential

Prescribeddeliveryrate

India 11.6 10.6 91% 50%SEAsia 8.7 0.5 6% 37%Sub-SaharanAfrica 7.3 1.4 19% 22%RestofSAmerica 6.3 3.4 55% 38%Brazil 5.7 4.2 73% 46%China 4.5 4.2 94% 50%Russia 3.1 2.0 63% 51%Oceania 2.6 0.8 31% 29%CAmerica 2.6 2.5 97% 38%EAsia 2.2 0.2 10% 35%SAsia 0.6 0.1 16% 28%NAfrica/MiddleE 0.6 0.5 82% 25%Group2Total 55.7 30.4 55% n/a

* Note: Includes additional aboveground and below ground carbon sequestration

Risks change abatement supply

costs and importance of regions and technologies



PolicyinstrumentmaQers–mandatoryvs.voluntaryabatementincen@ves

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 100 200 300 400

$/tCO

2e

MtCO2e/year(annualized)

U.S. Forest GHG Mitigation Supply

Credit supply and net mitigation will depend on

the type of incentive!

With voluntary participation incentives, abatement likely

(a) less than with mandatory participation incentives, and (b) less than the credits supplied.

Voluntary part. credits (w/ no add’l req)

Voluntary part. Abatement (w/ no

add’l req)

Vol. part. credits/abatement (w/

perfect crediting)

Mandatory participation



Non-marketpolicyinstruments?

§ E.g.,landmanagementbestprac9cesorconserva9on(maybewithmul9pleobjec9ves)

§ Pragma9c?Economicallyefficient?§ Implementa9ons9llachallenge.Sameissueslurking:– Coordina9on–  Ins9tu9ons–  Instruments


Coordina@onchallengewithnon-climatepoliciesSomenon-climatepolicies§ Sustainabledevelopment§ Farm§ Conserva9on§ Trade§ R&D

Otherland-relatedsocialconcerns§ Food§ Fiber§ Water§ Soil§ Biodiversity§ Income§ Culture

E.g., bioenergy could drive up prices and motivate land conversion, so could forest protection or

enhancement, together even more so


Coordina@onchallengewithnon-climatepolicies

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Intensiveforestch

ange

RegionalrelativecropTFPgrowth

AEZ1 AEZ2

AEZ3 AEZ4

AEZ5 AEZ6

Future agricultural productivity

improvements could result in increased

deforestation

Rose, Golub, Sohngen (2013)

Regions & AEZs with crop TFP

growth greater than global average


Addi@onalmodelingissues

§ Historicaluncertainty–ignored,yetlarge– Biophysical–landconversion,carbondensi9es,marginallandproduc9vity–  Economic–landextensifica9on&intensifica9onbehavior,agriculturalproduc9vitychanges

§ Technologicalchange–howitismodeledma<ers– PFPvTFP:landsavingvlandusing.HistorysuggestsTFPchanging.

§ Expecta9onsaboutfuturemarkets

§ Land-useconversionconstraints–hidden,butcanbesignificant


Historicalunderstandingpoore.g.,1990snetland-use/coverchangeemissions

Houghton et al. (2012)

1990s

1.3 +/- 0.23 PgC/yr

(across studies)

Differences in LULCC rates and area, C densities,

included processes,

environmental change


Futuremarkets–expecta@ons

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CumulativeGtCO

2

Economic($15)

Economic($15+5%capped)

Economic($15+5%)

Economic(gradualrising)

Cumulative global forest carbon gains over time

Expectations of higher future carbon

prices can delay forest carbon gains.



Concludingthoughts§ Itwillbechallengingtoabatewithlandonalargeglobalscale–withmarketornon-marketpolicies–  Significantpolicyimplementa9onanddesignchallengesthataffectmi9ga9oncostsandnetGHGbenefits

–  Substan9alnear-termabatementseemsunlikely

§ Somenear-termpainmaybenecessaryforlong-termclimategain–  Significantpoten9althatoverlong-runcouldbenetbeneficial

§ Morerealis9cmodelingneededtoproperlyevaluateland’srole–  Ourunderstandingisfairlylimited

§ Importantmodelingissuestoconsider–  Includinguncertain9esinourbasicscien9ficunderstanding


ThankYou

[email protected]

Land and Climate Goals€¦ · Cumulative differences in global land carbon stock (a) and land N 2O...

Documents

Transcript of Land and Climate Goals€¦ · Cumulative differences in global land carbon stock (a) and land N 2O...