LAMPIRAN · 2015-08-29 · Lampiran 3. Data Penjualan ABS, PP dan PS tahun 2006 - 2010 . ABS (kg)...

LAMPIRAN

55

Lampiran 1. Fasilitas yang terdapat pada PT S-IK Indonesia

List of Production Facilities

a. Extruder

b. Blender

56

Lanjutan Lampiran 1. Fasilitas yang terdapat pada PT S-IK Indonesia

c. Middle Hooper

d. Others

List of Inspection Facilities

a. Injection Molding Machine

57

Lanjutan Lampiran 1. Fasilitas yang terdapat pada PT S-IK Indonesia

b. Physical Test

c. Attached Facilities

58

Lampiran 2. Struktur Organisasi

President Director

Masato Akai

Factory Manager

Kazuhiro Takagi

Mgt Rep

Tri Haryani

Quality As.

Abdianta Ginting

Steering Comm.

Team

DCC

Dwi Irwati

Logistic Dept.

Rudy Suryawan

Logistic Section

Suriwati

Exim & Inventori

Suriwati

Ware House

Aboy

General Affairs Dept.

Rudy Suryawan

Personnel Sect.

Slamet Widodo

EDP

Yoga H.

General Admin

Zuraidah - Roni

Production Dept.

Shuichi Uakawa

Maintenance Sect.

Dapri Suprapman

Prod. Section

MF. Ashidiq

Maintenance

Madnur

Production Opr.

Medarcus/Lismar

Weighing

Rahyono

QC Dept.

Abdianta Ginting

QC/Inspection

Fauzie

Physical Test

Afrijoni

Commercial

Abdianta Ginting

Commercial Sect.

M. Mauludi

Commercial

Vinca

Account & Fin.

Tan Hui Lie

59

Lampiran 3. Data Penjualan ABS, PP dan PS tahun 2006 - 2010

ABS

(kg)

PP

(kg)

PS

(kg)

ABS

(kg)

PP

(kg)

PS

(kg)

ABS

(kg)

PP

(kg)

PS

(kg)

ABS

(kg)

PP

(kg)

PS

(kg)

ABS

(kg)

PP

(kg)

PS

(kg)

Jan 447.842 161.122 718.237 491.077 321.629 424.403 611.321 635.307 832.952 110.225 802.765 319.430 615.967 1.134.166 302.692

Feb 615.243 117.118 588.479 403.474 282.539 275.253 596.018 414.243 656.938 164.107 777.106 224.797 486.186 1.197.499 376.401

Mar 286.614 199.671 317.686 392.319 304.914 470.139 589.098 662.600 541.516 264.977 801.807 290.275 609.853 1.409.743 242.230

Apr 469.908 75.079 473.460 430.676 282.627 580.843 646.819 749.412 600.024 411.673 792.398 346.077 452.551 1.366.726 343.468

May 399.220 168.946 818.293 452.448 283.221 785.823 571.711 749.792 512.750 543.300 1.027.515 466.653 527.341 1.533.419 341.474

Jun 432.836 194.606 351.468 527.871 242.760 719.497 674.443 704.749 532.982 581.685 1.197.911 535.147 568.322 1.533.370 349.137

Jul 442.012 221.537 188.573 636.596 373.694 875.675 685.805 750.189 572.303 702.640 1.004.559 512.253 754.315 1.325.572 342.907

Aug 540.238 231.684 250.417 749.482 317.743 1.148.252 523.298 1.112.455 506.172 588.667 1.404.340 489.439 787.598 1.478.666 411.790

Sep 623.308 394.827 563.050 769.247 467.705 1.035.594 490.807 1.113.902 605.105 571.051 1.126.813 636.028 742.425 1.093.771 331.292

Oct 528.942 168.884 757.487 702.406 404.286 981.148 418.862 1.078.683 700.859 743.761 1.412.735 764.074 1.096.320 1.299.982 348.439

Nov 663.507 286.706 616.266 768.940 482.640 909.604 453.095 1.050.742 469.075 640.036 1.197.386 540.031 1.034.244 1.406.493 365.871

Dec 433.761 341.326 469.622 596.296 512.281 822.593 312.392 916.124 343.818 607.963 1.285.900 501.342 881.256 1.375.141 255.992

5.883.431 2.561.506 6.113.038 6.920.832 4.276.039 9.028.824 6.573.669 9.938.198 6.874.494 5.930.085 12.831.235 5.625.546 8.556.378 16.154.548 4.011.693

20102006 2007 2008 2009

Lampiran 4. Uji Stasioneritas data dan Uji First Difference

1. ABS

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

ABS_

Null Hypothesis: ABS_ has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.725301 0.0758

Test critical values: 1% level -3.546099

5% level -2.911730

10% level -2.593551

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Null Hypothesis: D(ABS_) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant


t-Statistic Prob.*



5% level -2.912631

10% level -2.594027


61

Lanjutan Lampiran 4. Uji Stasioneritas data dan Uji First Difference

2. PP

11.2

11.6

12.0

12.4

12.8

13.2

13.6

14.0

14.4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

PP

Null Hypothesis: PP has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend


t-Statistic Prob.*



5% level -3.489228

10% level -3.173114


Null Hypothesis: D(PP) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant


t-Statistic Prob.*



5% level -2.912631

10% level -2.594027


62

Lanjutan Lampiran 4. Uji Stasioneritas data dan Uji First Difference

3. PS

12.0

12.4

12.8

13.2

13.6

14.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

PS

Null Hypothesis: PS has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant


t-Statistic Prob.*



5% level -2.911730

10% level -2.593551


Null Hypothesis: D(PS) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant


t-Statistic Prob.*



5% level -2.912631

10% level -2.594027


63

Lampiran 5. Uji Kausalitas Granger

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests

Date: 06/13/11 Time: 16:10

Sample: 2006M01 2010M12

Lags: 2

Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.

PP does not Granger Cause ABS_ 57 0.24442 0.8649

ABS_ does not Granger Cause PP 2.37299 0.0813

PS does not Granger Cause ABS_ 57 0.36918 0.7756

ABS_ does not Granger Cause PS 1.18651 0.3244

PS does not Granger Cause PP 57 0.21871 0.8830

PP does not Granger Cause PS 1.26458 0.2966

64

Lampiran 6. Penentuan Lag Optimum

VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria

Endogenous variables: ABS_ PP

PS

Exogenous variables: C

Date: 06/13/11 Time: 16:11

Sample: 2006M01 2010M12

Included observations: 58

Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ

0 -113.5871 NA 0.011183 4.020246 4.126821 4.061759

1 -16.14339 181.4470 0.000530 0.970462 1.396760 1.136514

2 2.709548 33.15517* 0.000378* 0.630705* 1.376728* 0.921296*

* indicates lag order selected by the criterion

LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5%

level)

FPE: Final prediction error

AIC: Akaike information criterion

SC: Schwarz information criterion

HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion

65

Lampiran 7. Uji Kointegrasi

Date: 06/13/11 Time: 16:12

Sample (adjusted): 2006M05 2010M12

Included observations: 56 after adjustments

Trend assumption: No deterministic trend

Series: ABS_ PP PS

Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 3

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)

Hypothesized Trace 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None * 0.328122 24.95816 24.27596 0.0410

At most 1 0.045937 2.688157 12.32090 0.8848

At most 2 0.000977 0.054723 4.129906 0.8480

Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level

**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

66

Lampiran 8. Estimasi VECM

Vector Error Correction Estimates

Date: 09/25/11 Time: 13:17

Sample (adjusted): 4 60

Included observations: 57 after adjustments

Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]

Cointegrating Eq: CointEq1

ABS01(-1) 1.000000

PP(-1) 0.930352

(0.47652)

[ 1.95240]

PS(-1) 2.870379

(1.10599)

[ 2.59531]

C -2795235.

Error Correction: D(ABS01) D(PP) D(PS)

CointEq1 -0.038906 -0.007035 -0.084682

(0.02248) (0.02904) (0.02752)

[-1.73044] [-0.24227] [-3.07669]

D(ABS01(-1)) -0.176024 0.300843 0.398248

(0.13978) (0.18053) (0.17111)

[-1.25930] [ 1.66641] [ 2.32738]

D(ABS01(-2)) 0.127201 0.142114 0.073032

(0.13435) (0.17352) (0.16447)

[ 0.94679] [ 0.81900] [ 0.44405]

D(PP(-1)) -0.170899 -0.508079 0.189922

(0.11245) (0.14524) (0.13766)

[-1.51971] [-3.49816] [ 1.37960]

D(PP(-2)) 0.013976 0.064464 0.330016

(0.11284) (0.14574) (0.13814)

[ 0.12386] [ 0.44231] [ 2.38903]

D(PS(-1)) 0.194146 -0.014591 0.036721

(0.10383) (0.13411) (0.12711)

[ 1.86978] [-0.10880] [ 0.28889]

67

Lanjutan Lampiran 8. Estimasi VECM

D(PS(-2)) 0.023303 -0.025579 -0.210194

(0.10618) (0.13714) (0.12998)

[ 0.21947] [-0.18652] [-1.61708]

C 14775.10 26776.16 -16950.82

(14869.7) (19205.1) (18203.1)

[ 0.99364] [ 1.39422] [-0.93120]

R-squared 0.216320 0.304112 0.305117

Adj. R-squared 0.104365 0.204699 0.205847

Sum sq. resids 5.52E+11 9.21E+11 8.27E+11

S.E. equation 106138.2 137083.7 129931.7

F-statistic 1.932215 3.059085 3.073631

Log likelihood -736.2018 -750.7852 -747.7310

Akaike AIC 26.11234 26.62404 26.51688

Schwarz SC 26.39909 26.91079 26.80362

Mean dependent 10432.32 20622.28 -1082.351

S.D. dependent 112151.9 153716.4 145801.9

Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 3.43E+30

Determinant resid covariance 2.18E+30

Log likelihood -2233.565

Akaike information criterion 79.31806

Schwarz criterion 80.28582

68

Lampiran 9. Uji Stabilitas Model

Roots of Characteristic Polynomial

Endogenous variables: ABS_ PP PS

Exogenous variables: C

Lag specification: 1 2

Date: 07/14/11 Time: 16:02

Root Modulus

0.959089 0.959089

0.790458 0.790458

-0.617894 0.617894

0.465037 - 0.213163i 0.511564

0.465037 + 0.213163i 0.511564

-0.156347 0.156347

No root lies outside the unit circle.

VAR satisfies the stability condition.

69

Lampiran 10. Impulse Response Function (IRF)

4. Apabila ABS di impuls (shock)

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Respon Variabel ABS Terhadap Shock Variabel ABS

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Respon Variabel PP Terhadap Shock Variabel ABS

-.3

-.2

-.1

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Respon Variabel PS Terhadap Shock Variabel ABS

70

Lanjutan Lampiran 10. Impulse Response Function (IRF)

5. Apabila variabel PP diimpuls (shock)

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Respon Variabel PP Terhadap Shock Variabel PP

-.30

-.25

-.20

-.15

-.10

-.05

.00

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Respon Variabel ABS Terhadap Shock Variabel PP

-.12

-.08

-.04

.00

.04

.08

.12

.16

.20

.24

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Respon Variabel PS Terhadap Shock Variabel PP

71


6. Apabila variabel PS di impuls (shock)

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Respon Variabel PS Terhadap Shock Variabel PS

-.30

-.25

-.20

-.15

-.10

-.05

.00

.05

.10

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Respon Variabel ABS Terhadap Shock Variabel PS

-.14

-.12

-.10

-.08

-.06

-.04

-.02

.00

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Respon Variabel PP Terhadap Shock Variabel PS

72


1. Response of ABS

Response of ABS01:

Period ABS01 PP PS 1 106138.2 0.000000 0.000000

2 84625.15 -27774.37 10504.31

3 92821.46 -9709.864 -4259.531

4 79042.10 -27828.82 -16138.20

5 72384.50 -25497.38 -22636.35

6 65625.42 -34266.21 -25997.53

7 61477.87 -32616.87 -28874.64

8 58843.07 -35796.92 -30600.33

9 57155.52 -35360.64 -31398.08

10 56360.01 -36412.82 -31746.44

11 55871.18 -36139.73 -31923.82

12 55706.68 -36434.73 -31992.03

13 55609.66 -36317.67 -31993.54

14 55607.96 -36391.56 -31976.71

15 55608.05 -36335.43 -31958.85

16 55627.49 -36350.71 -31944.44

17 55638.30 -36328.70 -31932.95

18 55650.56 -36331.47 -31925.41

19 55656.86 -36323.28 -31920.79

20 55662.02 -36323.83 -31918.22

21 55664.41 -36321.21 -31916.79

22 55666.08 -36321.46 -31916.10

23 55666.74 -36320.72 -31915.80

24 55667.14 -36320.87 -31915.70

25 55667.24 -36320.70 -31915.69

26 55667.29 -36320.79 -31915.72

27 55667.26 -36320.76 -31915.74

28 55667.25 -36320.80 -31915.77

29 55667.22 -36320.80 -31915.79

30 55667.20 -36320.82 -31915.80

31 55667.19 -36320.82 -31915.81

32 55667.18 -36320.83 -31915.81

33 55667.18 -36320.83 -31915.82

34 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

35 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

36 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

37 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

38 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

39 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

40 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

41 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

42 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

43 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

44 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

45 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

46 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

47 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

48 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

49 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

50 55667.17 -36320.83 -31915.82

73


2. Response of PP

Response of PP:

Period ABS01 PP PS 1 3519.977 137038.5 0.000000

2 32037.27 66259.75 -4430.528

3 23461.25 101647.7 -3980.139

4 27182.85 78812.82 -7034.302

5 21426.96 89542.88 -10231.47

6 20573.36 81245.70 -12472.71

7 17767.60 83938.62 -13536.87

8 17031.94 81282.23 -14315.74

9 15962.93 82138.56 -14777.90

10 15661.90 81277.56 -15030.72

11 15324.06 81543.38 -15127.51

12 15250.14 81295.53 -15175.18

13 15167.72 81397.09 -15189.70

14 15163.44 81328.26 -15191.19

15 15151.49 81366.24 -15185.19

16 15159.43 81349.21 -15179.82

17 15161.34 81363.84 -15175.14

18 15167.03 81359.72 -15171.93

19 15169.34 81364.92 -15169.65

20 15171.96 81363.92 -15168.34

21 15173.03 81365.66 -15167.57

22 15173.96 81365.35 -15167.18

23 15174.31 81365.87 -15166.98

24 15174.57 81365.74 -15166.90

25 15174.64 81365.89 -15166.88

26 15174.69 81365.83 -15166.88

27 15174.69 81365.86 -15166.89

28 15174.69 81365.83 -15166.90

29 15174.68 81365.84 -15166.90

30 15174.67 81365.83 -15166.91

31 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.91

32 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.91

33 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

34 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

35 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

36 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

37 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

38 15174.65 81365.83 -15166.92

39 15174.65 81365.83 -15166.92

40 15174.65 81365.83 -15166.92

41 15174.65 81365.83 -15166.92

42 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

43 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

44 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

45 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

46 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

47 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

48 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

49 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

50 15174.66 81365.83 -15166.92

74


3. Response of PS

Response of PS:

Period ABS01 PP PS 1 24593.73 7344.053 127371.4

2 53191.45 21058.82 101088.5

3 32214.32 32753.12 51580.63

4 17369.42 3681.178 36934.68

5 1164.198 -3146.621 33505.97

6 -7933.972 -7309.878 25966.73

7 -15351.10 -9106.543 19989.12

8 -19545.52 -12145.17 17674.20

9 -22132.24 -13061.16 16872.26

10 -23373.87 -13530.64 16262.83

11 -24050.88 -13654.41 15931.02

12 -24323.58 -13806.98 15871.87

13 -24424.53 -13806.82 15905.07

14 -24428.88 -13793.50 15934.60

15 -24409.31 -13766.36 15961.68

16 -24380.99 -13753.93 15988.35

17 -24357.44 -13739.48 16008.45

18 -24339.31 -13730.89 16020.41

19 -24327.58 -13724.73 16027.36

20 -24320.19 -13721.89 16031.46

21 -24315.99 -13720.00 16033.68

22 -24313.69 -13719.18 16034.68

23 -24312.58 -13718.74 16035.07

24 -24312.08 -13718.64 16035.18

25 -24311.92 -13718.60 16035.18

26 -24311.90 -13718.63 16035.13

27 -24311.93 -13718.66 16035.07

28 -24311.98 -13718.69 16035.03

29 -24312.02 -13718.71 16034.99

30 -24312.05 -13718.73 16034.97

31 -24312.07 -13718.74 16034.96

32 -24312.08 -13718.74 16034.95

33 -24312.09 -13718.75 16034.95

34 -24312.09 -13718.75 16034.95

35 -24312.09 -13718.75 16034.95

36 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

37 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

38 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

39 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

40 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

41 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

42 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

43 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

44 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

45 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

46 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

47 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

48 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

49 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

50 -24312.10 -13718.75 16034.95

75

Lampiran 11. Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD)

1. FEVD of ABS

Period S.E. ABS01 PP PS 1 106138.2 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000

2 138955.0 95.43333 3.995214 0.571461

3 167441.8 96.45401 3.087724 0.458270

4 187934.3 94.25508 4.643754 1.101171

5 204258.0 92.35023 5.489416 2.160358

6 218810.6 89.46985 7.235945 3.294205

7 231420.0 87.04283 8.455371 4.501797

8 243383.4 84.54130 9.807818 5.650878

9 254437.6 82.40111 10.90555 6.693340

10 265044.6 80.45944 11.93756 7.602996

11 275128.1 78.79372 12.80402 8.402266

12 284867.8 77.32194 13.57929 9.098772

13 294252.7 76.03995 14.25024 9.709814

14 303354.2 74.90584 14.84711 10.24705

15 312182.1 73.90229 15.37399 10.72372

16 320770.8 73.00516 15.84594 11.14890

17 329133.7 72.19994 16.26922 11.53085

18 337291.0 71.47217 16.65207 11.87576

19 345255.3 70.81149 16.99952 12.18899

20 353040.6 70.20864 17.31664 12.47471

21 360657.8 69.65640 17.60711 12.73649

22 368117.8 69.14852 17.87426 12.97721

23 375429.5 68.67988 18.12077 13.19935

24 382601.5 68.24605 18.34896 13.40498

25 389641.6 67.84330 18.56081 13.59589

26 396556.7 67.46840 18.75801 13.77359

27 403353.3 67.11855 18.94203 13.93942

28 410037.3 66.79133 19.11415 14.09452

29 416614.0 66.48460 19.27549 14.23991

30 423088.5 66.19651 19.42703 14.37647

31 429465.4 65.92539 19.56963 14.50497

32 435749.0 65.66981 19.70407 14.62612

33 441943.2 65.42845 19.83103 14.74053

34 448051.9 65.20016 19.95110 14.84873

35 454078.3 64.98391 20.06485 14.95124

36 460025.9 64.77878 20.17275 15.04847

37 465897.5 64.58392 20.27525 15.14084

38 471696.0 64.39858 20.37274 15.22869

39 477424.1 64.22208 20.46557 15.31234

40 483084.3 64.05381 20.55408 15.39211

41 488678.9 63.89320 20.63857 15.46824

42 494210.2 63.73974 20.71929 15.54098

43 499680.3 63.59296 20.79649 15.61055

44 505091.1 63.45244 20.87041 15.67716

45 510444.6 63.31778 20.94124 15.74099

46 515742.5 63.18862 21.00917 15.80220

47 520986.6 63.06464 21.07438 15.86097

48 526178.4 62.94553 21.13704 15.91743

49 531319.4 62.83101 21.19728 15.97171

50 536411.2 62.72082 21.25524 16.02395

76

Lanjutan Lampiran 11. Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD)

2. FEVD of PP


2 155654.5 4.287451 95.63153 0.081019

3 187421.6 4.524196 95.37482 0.100980

4 205247.9 5.526459 94.27188 0.201659

5 225185.3 5.496581 94.12945 0.373972

6 240599.5 5.546031 93.85764 0.596330

7 255798.2 5.389015 93.80336 0.807624

8 269322.4 5.261308 93.72760 1.011092

9 282408.4 5.104516 93.70210 1.193384

10 294672.3 4.970965 93.67273 1.356301

11 306504.1 4.844553 93.65825 1.497201

12 317831.1 4.735630 93.64401 1.620356

13 328790.0 4.638019 93.63441 1.727572

14 339378.6 4.552751 93.62543 1.821815

15 349654.8 4.476850 93.61824 1.904913

16 359633.7 4.409537 93.61164 1.978827

17 369346.2 4.349179 93.60589 2.044933

18 378809.0 4.294915 93.60063 2.104456

19 388042.2 4.245776 93.59590 2.158325

20 397060.5 4.201105 93.59156 2.207331

21 405879.0 4.160286 93.58761 2.252106

22 414509.8 4.122848 93.58397 2.293185

23 422964.6 4.088378 93.58062 2.331007

24 431253.7 4.056537 93.57751 2.365948

25 439386.4 4.027032 93.57464 2.398326

26 447371.4 3.999616 93.57197 2.428413

27 455216.3 3.974073 93.56948 2.456443

28 462928.2 3.950219 93.56716 2.482622

29 470513.8 3.927890 93.56498 2.507126

30 477979.0 3.906945 93.56294 2.530111

31 485329.4 3.887259 93.56103 2.551714

32 492570.2 3.868722 93.55922 2.572057

33 499706.0 3.851237 93.55752 2.591246

34 506741.3 3.834715 93.55591 2.609376

35 513680.3 3.819081 93.55439 2.626534

36 520526.8 3.804263 93.55294 2.642794

37 527284.4 3.790200 93.55157 2.658227

38 533956.5 3.776836 93.55027 2.672893

39 540546.3 3.764120 93.54903 2.686848

40 547056.7 3.752005 93.54785 2.700143

41 553490.5 3.740450 93.54673 2.712823

42 559850.3 3.729418 93.54565 2.724931

43 566138.8 3.718872 93.54462 2.736503

44 572358.1 3.708783 93.54364 2.747575

45 578510.6 3.699120 93.54270 2.758179

46 584598.3 3.689858 93.54180 2.768343

47 590623.3 3.680972 93.54093 2.778095

48 596587.5 3.672440 93.54010 2.787458

49 602492.6 3.664240 93.53930 2.796457

50 608340.4 3.656354 93.53853 2.805111

77

Lanjutan Lampiran 11. Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD)

3. FEVD of PS


2 174281.2 11.30634 1.637618 87.05604

3 187470.1 12.72426 4.467703 82.80804

4 191897.0 12.96324 4.300748 82.73602

5 194829.0 12.57956 4.198359 83.22208

6 196847.7 12.48533 4.250592 83.26407

7 198663.4 12.85524 4.383369 82.76139

8 200771.2 13.53449 4.657752 81.80776

9 203111.2 14.41179 4.964566 80.62365

10 205543.3 15.36591 5.281114 79.35297

11 208006.6 16.34106 5.587689 78.07125

12 210477.9 17.29508 5.887560 76.81736

13 212934.5 18.21403 6.172926 75.61305

14 215364.9 19.09189 6.444592 74.46351

15 217766.3 19.92956 6.702873 73.36757

16 220139.4 20.72879 6.949487 72.32172

17 222485.3 21.49254 7.185073 71.32239

18 224805.0 22.22348 7.410620 70.36590

19 227099.9 22.92413 7.626841 69.44903

20 229371.2 23.59661 7.834435 68.56895

21 231619.8 24.24281 8.033936 67.72326

22 233846.5 24.86434 8.225848 66.90981

23 236052.2 25.46269 8.410607 66.12671

24 238237.4 26.03915 8.588617 65.37224

25 240402.7 26.59492 8.760242 64.64484

26 242548.6 27.13111 8.925821 63.94307

27 244675.8 27.64874 9.085669 63.26559

28 246784.6 28.14875 9.240077 62.61117

29 248875.5 28.63204 9.389319 61.97864

30 250949.0 29.09941 9.533650 61.36694

31 253005.6 29.55166 9.673307 60.77503

32 255045.5 29.98949 9.808514 60.20199

33 257069.3 30.41360 9.939480 59.64692

34 259077.3 30.82460 10.06640 59.10900

35 261069.8 31.22311 10.18946 58.58743

36 263047.2 31.60967 10.30884 58.08149

37 265009.9 31.98483 10.42469 57.59048

38 266958.1 32.34908 10.53717 57.11375

39 268892.2 32.70289 10.64643 56.65068

40 270812.5 33.04669 10.75260 56.20071

41 272719.3 33.38091 10.85581 55.76327

42 274612.9 33.70595 10.95618 55.33786

43 276493.5 34.02218 11.05384 54.92399

44 278361.3 34.32994 11.14888 54.52118

45 280216.8 34.62958 11.24141 54.12901

46 282060.0 34.92141 11.33153 53.74706

47 283891.3 35.20574 11.41933 53.37493

48 285710.8 35.48285 11.50490 53.01225

49 287518.8 35.75301 11.58833 52.65866

50 289315.5 36.01648 11.66969 52.31383

78

Lampiran 12. Regresi Model Minitab

1. ABS

The regression equation is

ABS = 55082 + 0,271 ABSlag-2 + 0,603 ABSlag-1 + 0,152 PPlag-2 - 0,163

PPlag-1 + 0,046 PP - 0,194 PSlag-2 - 0,014 PSlag-1 + 0,212 PS

58 cases used, 2 cases contain missing values

Predictor Coef SE Coef T P

Constant 55082 65878 0,84 0,407

ABSlag-2 0,2707 0,1446 1,87 0,067

ABSlag-1 0,6030 0,1349 4,47 0,000

PPlag-2 0,1518 0,1142 1,33 0,190

PPlag-1 -0,1634 0,1106 -1,48 0,146

PP 0,0458 0,1150 0,40 0,692

PSlag-2 -0,1941 0,1113 -1,74 0,088

PSlag-1 -0,0143 0,1413 -0,10 0,920

PS 0,2116 0,1074 1,97 0,055

S = 108984 R-Sq = 68,4% R-Sq(adj) = 63,2%

Analysis of Variance

Source DF SS MS F P

Regression 8 1,25962E+12 1,57452E+11 13,26 0,000

Residual Error 49 5,82001E+11 11877561250

Total 57 1,84162E+12

Source DF Seq SS

ABSlag-2 1 7,80509E+11

ABSlag-1 1 3,38929E+11

PPlag-2 1 16190838817

PPlag-1 1 20417138809

PP 1 4595557033

PSlag-2 1 25655621983

PSlag-1 1 27234254538

PS 1 46088391978

Unusual Observations

Obs ABSlag-2 ABS Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid

37 453095 110225 384270 37215 -274045 -2,68R

58 787598 1096320 810258 52422 286062 2,99R

R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual.

79

Lanjutan Lampiran 12. Regresi Model Minitab

2. PP


PP = 3052 - 0,137 ABSlag-2 + 0,070 ABS + 0,230 ABSlag-1 + 0,506 PPlag-2

+ 0,439 PPlag-1 - 0,083 PSlag-1 - 0,013 PSlag-2 + 0,054 PS



Constant 3052 82318 0,04 0,971

ABSlag-2 -0,1365 0,1847 -0,74 0,463

ABS 0,0705 0,1770 0,40 0,692

ABSlag-1 0,2299 0,1958 1,17 0,246

PPlag-2 0,5064 0,1247 4,06 0,000

PPlag-1 0,4390 0,1254 3,50 0,001

PSlag-1 -0,0830 0,1750 -0,47 0,637

PSlag-2 -0,0127 0,1424 -0,09 0,929

PS 0,0539 0,1383 0,39 0,699

S = 135222 R-Sq = 92,3% R-Sq(adj) = 91,1%


Source DF SS MS F P

Regression 8 1,07516E+13 1,34395E+12 73,50 0,000

Residual Error 49 8,95967E+11 18285037386

Total 57 1,16476E+13

Source DF Seq SS

ABSlag-2 1 9,17696E+11

ABS 1 4,64125E+11

ABSlag-1 1 38991136766

PPlag-2 1 9,07958E+12

PPlag-1 1 2,43088E+11

PSlag-1 1 5089703302

PSlag-2 1 291130895

PS 1 2774251520


Obs ABSlag-2 PP Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid

32 674443 1112455 764775 36611 347680 2,67R

51 615967 1409743 1151796 45087 257947 2,02R

57 754315 1093771 1433272 43594 -339501 -2,65R


80

Lanjutan Lampiran 12. Regresi Model Minitab

3. PS


PS = 171560 - 0,154 ABSlag-2 - 0,114 ABSlag-1 + 0,347 ABS - 0,132 PPlag-2

- 0,011 PPlag-1 + 0,057 PP - 0,094 PSlag-2 + 0,786 PSlag-1



Constant 171560 81310 2,11 0,040

ABSlag-2 -0,1539 0,1903 -0,81 0,423

ABSlag-1 -0,1143 0,2042 -0,56 0,578

ABS 0,3467 0,1760 1,97 0,055

PPlag-2 -0,1317 0,1476 -0,89 0,376

PPlag-1 -0,0110 0,1447 -0,08 0,940

PP 0,0573 0,1471 0,39 0,699

PSlag-2 -0,0945 0,1463 -0,65 0,521

PSlag-1 0,7865 0,1418 5,55 0,000

S = 139500 R-Sq = 65,6% R-Sq(adj) = 59,9%


Source DF SS MS F P

Regression 8 1,81498E+12 2,26873E+11 11,66 0,000

Residual Error 49 9,53556E+11 19460317088

Total 57 2,76854E+12

Source DF Seq SS

ABSlag-2 1 70238068057

ABSlag-1 1 66097689382

ABS 1 51509908081

PPlag-2 1 6,58509E+11

PPlag-1 1 3802030617

PP 1 304722625

PSlag-2 1 3,65826E+11

PSlag-1 1 5,98695E+11


Obs ABSlag-2 PS Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid

5 286614 818293 537095 56472 281198 2,20R

6 469908 351468 801953 59984 -450485 -3,58R

20 527871 1148252 880311 49818 267941 2,06R


LAMPIRAN · 2015-08-29 · Lampiran 3. Data Penjualan ABS, PP dan PS tahun 2006 - 2010 . ABS (kg)...

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Transcript of LAMPIRAN · 2015-08-29 · Lampiran 3. Data Penjualan ABS, PP dan PS tahun 2006 - 2010 . ABS (kg)...