Lake States Wildfire Hazard Assessment July 2020 · 2020. 7. 9. · SLEEPER LAKE 2007 19,800.0...

Lake States Wildfire Hazard Assessment July 2020

Eastern Area Coordination Center

Predictive Services

2020 Lake States Wildfire Hazard Assessment of 22

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 3

Introduction and Background ................................................................................................ 4

Stakeholders ..................................................................................................................................4

Tasking ..........................................................................................................................................4

Team Members and Assignments ...................................................................................................4

Fire History ............................................................................................................................ 5

Summary Statistics .........................................................................................................................5

Notable Summer Fires ....................................................................................................................7

Landscape Hazards ................................................................................................................ 9

Seasonal Landscape Flammability ...................................................................................................9

Vegetation and Fuels of Concern .................................................................................................. 11

Current Fire Danger and Fuel Availability ............................................................................. 12

Weather Forecasts and Outlooks ......................................................................................... 13

7-Day Precipitation and Fire Danger Forecast ................................................................................ 13

Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for July .......................................................................... 14

Fire Behavior ....................................................................................................................... 15

Recent Fire Activity ...................................................................................................................... 15

Expected Fire Behavior ................................................................................................................. 18

Potential Fire Problems ....................................................................................................... 19

Increased Ignition Potential .......................................................................................................... 19

Response Capacity ....................................................................................................................... 19

Wildfire Smoke and COVID-19 Risks ............................................................................................. 19

Summary & Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 20

Recommendations ............................................................................................................... 21

References........................................................................................................................... 22


Executive Summary Hot and dry weather in June and increasing fire occurrence requiring significant initial attack and extended mop-up in both Michigan and Minnesota have led to concerns for fire management in the region. Though there have been dry periods and places in recent summers (e.g. lower peninsula of Michigan in 2018), problem fire activity has been limited since the summer of 2012. To reinforce the concerns in the region, this hazard assessment has been conducted with focus on the lake states through the rest of the summer (July through September). This assessment was conducted with assistance from the USDA Forest Service Eastern Region, the Eastern Area Coordination Center, and interagency partners from Michigan and Minnesota.

Summer seasons in the lake states are uneven and irregular from year to year and place to place. Most significant summer fire activity occurs in high hazard fuel areas of the northern forests, with the potential to burn large areas and threaten values at risk over short periods. This is possible with as little as 2-3 weeks of drying weather patterns.

Current fire danger indicators suggest that high hazard fuels of Michigan’s lower peninsula are of greatest concern based on observed fire activity and behavior. Forecasts and outlooks suggest that persistent hot and dry weather may produce intensifying drought conditions there. Additionally, recent rains in the Minnesota’s Arrowhead have reduced fire danger there, though outlooks suggest that a rebound is possible. Reported fire activity suggest that larger problems are developing quickly.

This all leads to the conclusion that the potential for a significant summer season in at least part of the lake states exists and that the next fire may produce large fire growth, depending on where it starts and whether winds to support it develop. To describe that potential, these three prognostic scenarios are compared:

• Worst Case (20%): Extended widespread drought persists. 500 initial responses. 10 large incidents (100 or more acres). 10,000 or more acres burned. Out of region responses.

• Most Likely Scenario (50%): Persistent very high fire danger in multiple high hazard areas. 275 initial responses. 3 large fire (100 or more acre) responses. Up to 3,000 acres burned. Out of area support.

• Best Case (30%): Moderating interludes during the rest of the summer. As few as 150 summer responses. Very few, if any, large fire (100 acres or more) responses producing less than 500 acres burned overall.

Based on the “Most Likely Scenario” these recommendations should be considered:

1. Each new fire response should be attacked with heightened concern for firefighter and public safety.

2. Confirm interagency response needs and expectations with both local and regional partners, anticipating significant fire problems this summer.

3. Support severity requests for units with high hazard fuel areas, summer fire history, and fuel availability/flammability indices above the 90th percentile.

4. Within two weeks, the situation at the time as well as this assessment and its recommendations should be reviewed.


Introduction and Background Fire seasons in the Lake States are highly variable from year to year, due in large part to summer fire activity. Michigan and Minnesota have both demonstrated the potential for problem summer seasons with multiple large fires of 100 acres or more and some of the largest individual fires in the historic record.

Forecasting the likelihood of these summer fire problems is challenging. Most dry years exhibit several weeks of precipitation deficits. Yet only rarely does this persist through the entire summer season. Ignition frequency and overall landscape flammability are decidedly moderated in the summer, due to green-up and vigor of deciduous and herbaceous vegetation throughout the season across the region.

The 2020 summer season has already been variably hot and dry with high pressure dominating for much of June and into July. This assessment is intended to anticipate future problems and inform strategic preparedness and response decisions in the near term.

Stakeholders

• USDA Forest Service, Eastern Region • Eastern Area Coordination Center • Michigan Department of Natural Resources • Minnesota Department of Natural Resources • Bureau of Indian Affairs • National Park Service • US Fish and Wildlife Service

Tasking

Eastern Area Coordination Center Predictive Services requested a Long Term Fire Analyst to assist Eastern Area’s interagency partners with long-term planning for wildfire response by evaluating historical fire occurrence and assessing fuels and weather conditions in the Lake States, specifically Michigan and Minnesota. Analysis from the Lake States Wildfire Hazard Assessment will assist Eastern Area’s Land and Fire Managers facilitate risk informed decisions and enhance awareness at interagency national levels.

Team Members

• Robert “Zeke” Ziel, Team Leader, Long Term Fire Analyst (LTAN), Strategic Operational Planner (SOPL)

• Ray Parrish, Eastern Region Fire and Budget Planner, Strategic Operational Planner-Trainee (SOPL-T)

• Steve Marien, Eastern Area Coordination Center, Fire Weather Program Manager • Travis Verdegan, Minnesota DNR, Predictive Services Coordinator, Long Term Fire

Analyst-Trainee (LTAN-T) • Jeremy Ash, Eastern Region Air Resource Specialist


Fire History Summary Statistics

It is important to understand the distribution of wildfire activity across the seasons and across the years. Fire occurrence and area burned help characterize the size of impacts on values in the region and the demands on the fire management community responsible for protecting those values. These statistics, however, provide only a frame of reference when considering how the 2020 season may play out.

Annual Wildfire Activity Among the three lake states, as shown in Figure 1, Minnesota demonstrates the greatest annual load, frequently topping 50,000 acres in a year. More importantly, note the relative frequency and importance of the summer fire load. Again, Minnesota has demonstrated the greatest summer load with 5 significant years since 1992 (1995, 1996, 2006, 2011, and 2012). None of the last 4 years since 2015 have exhibited notable summer seasons.

Figure 1. Annual Lake States Wildfire Burned Area by season. A) for Michigan, b) for Minnesota, and c) for Wisconsin.


Large Fire Load While dry summers first bring an increase in fire starts and more mop-up difficulty, eventually the problem transitions to potential for large fire growth, extreme fire behavior, resistance to control, and smoke events that impact communities both near and far.

Figure 2 compares the distribution of large fire (>100 acres) activity across the months from 1992-2015 in the three states. As expected, large fires predominately occur in the spring months of March, April, and May. Again, Minnesota has shown the most potential for large fires in the summer. Michigan demonstrated again in 2006 that it has some potential for large fire growth on its northern landscape in its history. Only 3 large summer fires (2 in Minnesota and one in Michigan) have been noted in the 4 years since.

Figure 2. Monthly distribution of large fire activity in the Lake States. a) Number of fires. b) Area Burned


Notable Summer Fires

There are 82 fires larger than 100 acres in the three states since 1992, totaling more than 230,000 acres. Most notable among them are these five fires that help highlight years when significant summer drought affects wildlands in the region.

FIRE_NAME FIRE_YEAR FIRE_SIZE Date of Discovery Cause SAG CORRIDOR 1995 12,600.0 08/10/95 Campfire

CAVITY LAKE 2006 31,830.0 07/14/06 Lightning SLEEPER LAKE 2007 19,800.0 08/03/07 Lightning

PAGAMI CREEK 2011 92,682.0 08/18/11 Lightning NORTH MINNIE 2012 25,396.0 09/30/12 Missing/Undefined

The 1995 Sag Corridor Fire (MN) burned on both sides of the Canadian border in the Boundary Waters wilderness of the Superior National Forest.

The 2006 Cavity Lake Fire (MN) burned over 8 days in mid-July through an area impacted by the massive 1999 blowdown event in the Boundary Waters wilderness. Exceptionally hot and dry conditions pushed the Buildup Index (BUI) to record levels over a 2-week period.

Figure 3. Buildup Index (BUI) trend for 2006 compared to climatology at the Ely, MN RAWS


The 2007 Sleeper Lake Fire (MI) burned much of its area in the first half of August in a large marsh and fen landscape at the end of a season long drought that produced record BUI levels in May, June, July, and August.

Figure 4. Buildup Index (BUI) trend for 2007 compared to climatology at the Spincich, MI RAWS

The 2011 Pagami Creek Fire (MN) lived on the landscape for 3 weeks before awakening in September under all-time record BUI levels to produce a one-day growth event of more than 80,000 acres.

Figure 5. Buildup Index (BUI) trend for 2011 compared to climatology for the Fernberg, MN RAWS.

The 2012 North Minnie Fire (MN) burned primarily in October in northern peatlands where record setting BUI levels through late August and September highlighted drought conditions that impacted these heavy duff fuels.

Figure 6. Buildup Index (BUI) trend for 2012 compared to climatology for the Baudette, MN RAWS.

These fires all showed large fire growth, extreme fire behavior, and resisted control for a number of burn periods after weeks or months of cumulative drying during the summer months.


Landscape Hazards Seasonal Landscape Flammability

Greenup The most important factor distinguishing seasonal trend in fire activity in the Lake States is the phenological green up of deciduous and herbaceous vegetation across the landscape. As seen in Figure 7, much of the forested region of the three states in nearly fully green, as depicted by Green Vegetative Fraction (GVF) derived here from VIIRS satellite sensor.

Figure 7. Current Green Vegetative Fraction

There is year to year variation in the vigor of green vegetation in the summer in the Lake States, based on drought during the green up period and after. As shown in Figure 8, the US ForWarn system of forest change detection shows that there is a negative departure in both NE Minnesota and lower Michigan using MODIS NDVI departures.

Figure 8. Departure from 10-year average Normalized Difference Greenness Index. Note red highlights in NE lower Michigan, departure due to gypsy moth defoliation.

Unlike much of the western US, the Great Lakes fire problem is not typically characterized by summertime curing of live vegetation, resulting in much lower ignition efficiency and lower fire spread potential than in that western region. However, as referenced in the fire history section, there are numerous summer wildfires that exhibited rapid spread, extreme fire behavior, and significant resistance to control associated with extended drying periods developing into drought on high hazard fuelscapes and/or exceptional fuel accumulations.


Summer Hazard Areas Once green up occurs, the wildfire hazard is significantly reduced for much of the summer due to reduced ignition potential and lowered spread rates. However, as drought develops and deepens in the summer, the threat increases primarily in the high hazard fuels depicted in Figure 9. These fuel types were identified in the Eastern Region Risk Assessment after calibration workshops in the winter of 2019.

TU5 (green) represents a predominance of pine, spruce, and fir forests primarily in northern Minnesota. SH4, SH5, and SH9 (brown shades) represent dry sandy soils where pines and pine-oak forests can support large fire growth. These areas exist primarily in central Minnesota, north and central Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. GR2 (yellow) and GS5 (orange) represent graminoid barrens, marshes, and fens especially on the Northern Peatlands of NW Minnesota, in eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

Note the predominance of large fire growth summer fire activity (red highlights) in Northern Minnesota and the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

Figure 9. Lake States High hazard wildland fuels. Red bordered highlights are large summer fires. ERRA 2019 (Pyrologix)


Vegetation and Fuels of Concern

Pine, Spruce and Fir These forests of the Minnesota Arrowhead comprise a widely varying mix of conifer forests on shallow soils over bedrock. There are important admixtures of hardwood species such as trembling aspen, paper birch, and red maple. These shallow soils dry rapidly because their water holding capacity is limited. Under significant summer drying over 2 weeks or more, surface fuels can burn with intensity, promoting torching and spotting spread that is necessary to breach numerous embedded water barriers. With significant summer drying, active crown fire is expected under extremes of temperature, humidity, and windspeed. Critical fire weather patterns play an important part of the fire history for this landscape.

Pine and Pine Oak Forests and Barrens More widespread than the pine, spruce and fir forests of the arrowhead, the deep sandy soils that underlay these Pine and Oak communities are subject to deep drying in even the early stages of developing drought. These communities are more open due to their lower productivity and support a number of species with resinous vegetation that can burn readily under favorable conditions. Open barrens communities of grasses and shrubs under widely spaced oak and pine support active surface spread that can become rapid and intense under windy conditions. Torching and spotting spread are common. These active fires can spread rapidly in concentrations of jack pine, transitioning to crown fire in conifers under summer heat and critical fire weather patterns. Multiple burnover incidents have occurred in these fires.

Boreal Peatlands Some of the largest fires in the region have occurred on bottomland marshes, fens and swamps in the region under severe drought conditions. Under normal conditions, soil moisture remains high and abundant live vegetation inhibits active fire spread. But as upper duff layers dry under drought conditions, live vegetation is stressed and heavy dead fuel loads become more flammable. Again, large fire growth is dependent on critical fire weather patterns of extreme drought, high pressure heat, and frontal winds associated with the breakdown of the upper ridge. Notable examples are the Seney/Walsh Ditch fire of 1976, the Sleeper Lake fire of 2007, and the North Minnie fire of 2012. Summer fires on these landscapes can hold fire, smolder, and produce problem smoke events.

Figure 10. Pine, Spruce and Fir Forest Figure 11. Pine and Oak Forest/Barrens Figure 12. Boreal Peatlands


Current Fire Danger and Fuel Availability In the Eastern Area with significant periodic rain events throughout the fire season, monitoring departures from normal rainfall can be a critical factor in the determination of current fire danger. In Figure 13, precipitation for large swaths of the Minnesota Arrowhead and the lower peninsula of Michigan for the month ending on July 5th before the recent storms.

Figure 13. 30-Day Precipitation Anomaly for the Lake states as of July 5, 2020

The close correspondence of both ERC and BUI levels in Figure 14 to those areas of precipitation deficit show the importance of precipitation in both the development and mitigation of summer fire danger in the region. These are from July 5 and do not include most recent rains from July 6th in northern Minnesota, across northern Wisconsin and Michigan’s UP.

Figure 14. Fuel availability and flammability indices. a) is the NFDRS Energy Release Component (ERC) Spatial Preparedness Level (SPL) percentile classes and b) is the FWI Buildup Index (BUI) with Lake States conifer thresholds.


Weather Forecasts and Outlooks 7-Day Precipitation and Fire Danger Forecast

Figure 15 projects some precipitation across the lake states with the highest amounts over Minnesota and in Wisconsin, reinforcing rain recently fallen. Widespread fire danger, represented as ERC percentiles in Figure 16, is expected to persist in Michigan’s lower peninsula through this 7-day period and beyond.

Figure 15. 7-day precipitation forecast through July 14th.

Figure 16. Forecasted Energy Release Component (ERC) percentile classes for July 12.


Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for July

Both the 8-14 day outlook for July 14-20 (Figure 17) and the 30-day outlook for July (Figure 18) offer reinforcing concerns for hot weather that supports enhanced evapotranspiration on these landscapes. Probabilities this high suggest near certainty of continuing high pressure through much of the next few weeks. Precipitation outlooks are much less reliable, though these suggest persistent drying in Michigan’s lower peninsula is more likely than not.

Figure 17. CPC 8-14 day temperature and precipitation probability outlook for July 14 through July 20.

Figure 18. CPC 30-Day Temperature and Precipitation probability Outlook for July.


Fire Behavior Recent Fire Activity

Buck Creek Pond Fire (5.2 acres), July 1

Location: Huron-Manistee National Forest, East Zone.

Fuels & Terrain: Pine/Blueberry component, Blueberry was primary carrier. North aspect, 5 degrees slope.

Weather: Wind Speed Avg 7.0; Direction Avg SE; Gust 24.0, Air Temp Mean 89.0; Fuel Moisture Mean 5.3%; RH Mean 37%; Total Precip. 0.00”.

Fire Observations: Flame Lengths 2-4', 7-10' at the head. Full consumption of 10- and 100-hour fuels and 1000-hour fuels were actively consuming.

Suppression Notes: Direct attack with heavy equipment supported by engines, hoselays and firing to connect fingers. Long and persistent mop-up - 3 days for 5 acres. The area received a prescribed fire treatment in 2019 and it thermally thinned the lower branches in the Red pine and Jack pine very well. If not for last year’s RX treatment, there would had been torching and the fire would have severely challenged suppression efforts and had grown to a larger size.

Outlook for Fire: It is on the downward slide. With the continuation of hot, dry and windy conditions, maintain in patrol status longer than normal to confirm it’s out. Overall feeling, it’s dryer than normal.

Figure 19. Silver Creek RAWS for July 1-4.


Carlstrom Fire (14 acres), July 3

Location: Huron-Manistee National Forest, West Zone

Fuels & Terrain: Grass and Scotch Pine stringers (abandoned Christmas tree plantation). Flat.

Weather: Wind Speed Avg 4.0; Direction Avg NE; Gust 11.0, Air Temp Mean 85.0; Fuel Moisture Mean 6.4; RH Mean 41%; Total Precip. 0.00”.

Fire Observations: Single and group tree torching.

Suppression Notes: Other Jurisdiction, Forest has Protection Responsibility. Structure fire spread to wildland. Aggressive direct attack in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI). Less duff layer and light mop-up.

Outlook for Fire: It is on the downward slide. With the continuation of hot, dry and windy conditions, maintain in patrol status longer than normal to confirm it’s out. Overall feeling, it’s dryer than normal.

Figure 20. Wellston RAWS for July 3-6


Sundial Fire (8 acres), July 4

Location: Superior National Forest, East Zone.

Fuels & Terrain: Young Jack Pine stand, 24-year-old Whitefeather fire scar. 1000-hours fuel moistures low. Flat and interspersed with rocky outcroppings, wetlands and creeks. Fuels & Terrain: Immature Jack Pine

Weather: Wind Speed Avg 5.0; Direction Avg SE; Gust 17.0; Air Temp Mean 72.0; Fuel Moisture Mean 7.4%; RH Mean 83%; Total Precipitation 0.02”. If there had been wind, fire would have spread and been larger, possibly 100 acres. Overnight RH recovery was excellent and contributed to checking spread.

Fire Observations: Single and group tree torching. Fire did not burn deep into the duff. Drought codes in the moderate range. Weather:

Fire Observations:

Suppression Notes: 2 Type 1 helicopters dropped approximately 85,000 gallons (2 fuel cycles each). Mop-up in heavy fuels due to “jack-straw” Jack Pine.

Outlook for fire: Fully suppress the fire at the smallest size possible. The current size and fuels conditions present good opportunities to control the fire successfully. If the fire spreads into the mixed conifer fuel type, the fire will be reevaluated from a planning and tactical standpoint. Showers are likely Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Figure 21. Meander RAWS for July 4-6.


Expected Fire Behavior

Uncertainty in forecast and outlooks make it difficult to specify any particular scenario looking forward this season. The three incidents described above suggest that the areas highlighted in this analysis, high hazard fuels of the Northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan and the Arrowhead of northeast Minnesota, are of heightened concern.

Forecasts and outlooks discussed earlier do not suggest widespread reduction of hazard, with precipitation deficits persisting in some important hazard fuel areas. With that, ERC and BUI levels are expected to remain above critical levels and setting new daily records through July, especially on the sand plains in the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan where summer fire problems are not uncommon.

Here are indicators and concerns to watch for as the season progresses:

• Increased frequency of fire activity including new ignitions, initial attack (IA) and extended mop-up in high hazard areas with elevated indices. Increasing numbers of IA fires and holdover smoldering suggest first stages of problem drying. Monitor occurrence numbers, examine fire behavior and fire effects reports and relate observations to index thresholds and trends.

• Escape of initial attack fires in high hazard fuels. When fires demonstrate an ability to exceed capabilities of IA response, advancing drought and fuel flammability should be assessed and prepared for. Assess roles of increased flammability and resistance to control as well as other factors such as travel time and response complements. Again, monitor thresholds for key indicators to reinforce

• With the occurrence of extended attack fires and persisting extreme levels of key fire indices, fire managers should anticipate and plan for the potential of large fire growth and significant smoke production in conifer fuels that most frequently produce crown fire behavior. Consider high hazard areas, critical fire weather patterns such as breakdown of the upper ridge, expanding areas of drought, and forecast wind events as situations of special concern.


Potential Fire Problems Increased Ignition Potential

• “Every weekend is Memorial Day Weekend!” Deputy Forest FMO • Increased attendance and recreation activity after COVID-19 stay at home orders or

restrictions moderated. • Increased lightning ignition efficiency.

Response Capacity

• Competition for resources due to increased activity nationally. • Resources staying home. • Hiring delays, and staff turnover and development.

Wildfire Smoke and COVID-19 Risks

Based on long-term weather forecasts and expected dry conditions, 2020 is projected to be a higher than average year for wild land fire,” Kaari Carpenter, a spokesperson with the USDA Forest Service Fire and Aviation Management. Prospective large fire growth in the lake states this summer has the potential to create significant smoke problems due to heavy fuel loads burning in crown fires and holdover fire in deep organic duff layers.

• Community exposure to wildfire smoke has been directly linked to deaths in the United States.

• Exposure to air pollutants in wildfire smoke can irritate the lungs, cause inflammation, alter immune function and increase susceptibility to respiratory infections, likely including Covid-19, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and NIFC.

These risks from wildfire smoke and COVID-19 combined are an important consideration for both the health and safety of communities and fire personnel. Carpenter said, “We will work closely with communities to assist with forecasting and preparation for wildfire smoke.”

• Wildland Fire Response Plan, COVID-19 Pandemic, Eastern Geographic Area, Appendix G, Wildfire Smoke and COVID-19

• Interagency Wildland Fire Air Quality Response Program (IWFAQRP), (https://wildlandfiresmoke.net)

• Tools are being developed to assist Air Resource Advisors and others evaluate the joint risks of wildland fire smoke and Covid-19.

https://wildlandfiresmoke.net/


Summary & Conclusion Prognosis: Current fire danger suggests that high hazard areas in the lower peninsula of Michigan pose the greatest threat to values at risk. Only days ago, conditions in the Arrowhead of northeast Minnesota were considered the most important due to longer term rainfall deficits dating to May. But rains early in the week of July 5th and expectations for more during the week have temporarily mitigated the threat there. Extended outlooks through the end of July suggest that there is a very high likelihood that temperatures will continue to be well above normal and that precipitation is likely to be below normal in the driest sandy soils of Michigan’s northern lower peninsula for the rest of July and into August. Crown fire potential is very real.

All of this suggests a persistent and building wildfire threat for at least lower Michigan and potential for a rebound in northeast Minnesota.

Reference Seasons: Because weather forecasts in these circumstances suffer low confidence when extended more than a few days, strategic decisions are more effective when those forecasts are tempered with historic perspective and respect for the uncertainty that is identified.

• Median overall summer fire activity for the three lake states is 200 fires that burn approximately 2,000 acres. 90th percentile year was 2007 and included the Sleeper Lake fire in Michigan’s UP. It included 500 summer fires that burned over 22,000 acres.

• Median number of large summer fires (100 acres or more) is between 2 and 3, burning a little over 1000 acres. 90th percentile year was 1995, with 3 large fires burning over 22,000 acres and included the 12,000-acre Sag Corridor fire in NE Minnesota.

Prospective 2020 Summer Season: In support of strategic decisions, this assessment offers three descriptive scenarios to consider.

Worst Case (20%)

Extended widespread drought persists in multiple high hazard areas in the Lake States, perhaps even into the mid-Atlantic region. High pace of initial and extended attack, possibly 500 initial responses. As many as 10 large incidents (100 or more acres) that burn 10,000 or more acres and require out of region responses.

Most Likely Scenario (50%)

Persistent very high fuel availability and flammability conditions exist in multiple high hazard areas. Above average number of initial and extended attack responses, approximately 275. Large fire (100 or more acre) responses will be more limited, with 3 occurring and up to 3,000 acres burned. Out of area support may be required.

Best Case (30%)

Moderating weather passes periodically through most high hazard areas of the lake states, bringing fuel availability and flammability conditions down below very high levels several times during the rest of the summer. Below normal levels of summer fire activity, perhaps as few as 150 summer responses. Very few, if any, large fire (100 acres or more) responses producing less than 500 acres burned overall.


Recommendations 1. In situations like these, when fire danger is elevated and conditions may be changing

ahead of what recent wildfire occurrence might suggest, each new fire response should be attacked with the heightened concern for firefighter and public safety.

2. Especially this year, when many standard operating plans have been adjusted and typical practices put in reserve, confirm interagency response needs and expectations with both local and regional partners this summer.

3. With anticipated increase in preparedness and response actions this summer, support severity requests for units with high hazard fuel areas, summer fire history, and fuel availability/flammability indices above the 90th percentile.

4. This assessment is focused primarily on near term forecasts and outlooks through July. Within two weeks, the situation at the time as well as this assessment and its recommendations should be reviewed to determine if it is still valid, if it needs to be updated or if it is no longer needed.


References Hargrove, William et al., ForWarn II: Satellite-Based Change Recognition and Tracking, https://forwarn.forestthreats.org/

Horel, John et al, Great Lakes Fire and Fuels Fire Weather Assessment System, https://glff.mesowest.org, University of Utah.

Jolly, W.M. et al, Wildland Fire Assessment System, http://www.wfas.net/

National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center, 168-hour Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1594285992

Scott, Joe et al, Eastern Region Risk Assessment Deliverables (prepublication), 2019, Pyrologix.

Short, Karen C. 2017. Spatial wildfire occurrence data for the United States, 1992-2015 [FPA_FOD_20170508]. 4th Edition. Fort Collins, CO: Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2013-0009.4

https://forwarn.forestthreats.org/

https://glff.mesowest.org/

http://www.wfas.net/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1594285992

https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2013-0009.4

Lake States Wildfire Hazard Assessment July 2020 · 2020. 7. 9. · SLEEPER LAKE 2007 19,800.0...

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Transcript of Lake States Wildfire Hazard Assessment July 2020 · 2020. 7. 9. · SLEEPER LAKE 2007 19,800.0...