Lak11 Opening Keynote
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Pragmatic analytics: insight, representation and structure
Tony HirstDepartment of Communication and Systems,
The Open University, UK
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Let us start….
…with a little context
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“Enterprise Driven” analytics
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http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/bi
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Contribute to development and delivery of robust models, tools, skills and resources to enable
segmentation, competitor and market analysis and data mining within the Campaign Planning Team
and more widely within Marketing and Sales.
Corporate Data and MI Analyst, Marketing
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For example... Experian's Mosaic UK combines over 440 separate data sources and divides the UK adult
population into 69 different types and fifteen groups … at household address
or postcode level.
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Contribute to optimising the University’s customer targeting capability via regular reappraisal of segmentation policy with a
view to increasing market share in high yield segments
Corporate Data and MI Analyst, Marketing
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Corporate Data and MI Analyst, Marketing
Segment the prospect data mart by developing key prospect indicators to provide Response, Reservation,
Registration, Retention and other key metric predictions for each.
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advertising
prospectus
registration
retention
graduation
fundraising
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“Course Choice Analytics”
The Goog Course Page
QualificationDescription
Course Search
Related Courses
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“Course Choice Analytics”
The Goog Course Page
QualificationDescription
Course Search
Related Courses
Oer disc
overy
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Looking for structure
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“Visual analytics”
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Graph based representations
Nodes: id, label
Edges: id(1), id(2)
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advertising
prospectus
registration
retention
graduation
fundraising
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advertising
prospectus
registration
retention
graduation
fundraising
AcadEmic analytics
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“Student Centred” learning analytics
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Descriptive reports
Prescriptive models
Predictive voodoo
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Descriptive reports
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via Dave Pattern @daveyp
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“Negative feedback, closed loop control system”
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Prescriptive models
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Time series demonstrating:
- trend- seasonality/periodicity- noise
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Linear detrend (green) and first difference (blue)
Autocorrelation
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Linear detrend (green) and first difference (blue)
Autocorrelation
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Voodoo Magic
(a.k.a. blackbox recommenders)
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supervised learning(desired output for given input)
Input patterns
Output Patterns
“recommendation engine”
Desired outputActual output
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Course Analytics(Google Analytics)
SitewideTracking(Site Analytics)
Library Analytics(Google Analytics)
VLEStats
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Beware headline figures…
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Do you really mean that?
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http://eagereyes.org/criticism/anscombes-quartet
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http://eagereyes.org/criticism/anscombes-quartet
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Simpson’s Paradox
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Segmentation is critical…
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http://code.google.com/apis/analytics/docs/gdata/gdataExplorer.html
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“Public signals”
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Facebook: Course Profiles
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Friendfeed
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Commenters
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“Discovered networks”
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Bipartite Graph
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Reach:Double hit audience for “To lie or not to lie”
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< questions? >