Lack of Responsiveness Impacts Mood - … 2015...Lack of Responsiveness Impacts Mood August –...
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Page 1 Lack of Responsiveness Impacts Mood August – September 2015 Survey Findings
Transcript of Lack of Responsiveness Impacts Mood - … 2015...Lack of Responsiveness Impacts Mood August –...
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Lack of Responsiveness Impacts Mood August – September 2015 Survey Findings
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• National Survey – August 12-September 3, 2015
– 2000 respondents
• 500 Baghdad respondents
• 500 South respondents
• 500 West/IDP* respondents
• 500 Kurdistan respondents
– Margin of error on total sample: +/- 2% • +/- 4.4% in Baghdad; +/- 4.4% in South; +/- 4.4% in West; +/-
4.4% in Kurdistan
The research
* West/IDP is abbreviated to West throughout the rest of the presentation; Sunni refers to Non-Kurd Sunni
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• “West”: 79 Diyala (Baquba, al-Muqdadiya, al-Khalis, Balad Ruz) + 77 Kirkuk (Kirkuk Central/South and al-Hawija) + 344 IDPs; results weighted according to governorate population estimates
• IDP original governorate and location of interviews:
West sample design
Original governorate # of interviews Governorates of displacement/interview # of interviews
Anbar 86
Baghdad 50 Erbil 12
Sulaymaniyah 10 Kirkuk 14
Ninewa 180
Dohuk 120 Najaf 20 Erbil 20
Karbala 20
Salah ad-Din 78 Kirkuk 46 Erbil 20
Sulaymaniyah 12
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1. Would security concerns diminish, leading to greater focus on economic issues and basic services?
2. Could Abadi maintain high favorable ratings?
3. Would Sunni perception of sectarian tensions continue to improve?
4. Would Kurdistan strengthen relations with Baghdad?
Critical questions asked in December 2014
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Iraqi Mood in Brief – 4 key measures
Metric/survey question Current % Change Movement Country direction, % right, total 26 -8 Worse Security, % better, total 29 -3 Stable Electricity supplies, % better, total 23 -39 Much worse Job opportunities, % better, total 11 -11 Worse Abadi favorability, % favorable, total 54 -2 Stable Abadi job approval, % approve, total 65 -10 Worse Abadi’s favorable ratings, % among Sunni 39 -7 Worse Gov’t fairly represent Sunni, % among Sunni 36 -14 Worse Sectarianism, % better, total 35 +8 Better Iraq is mostly unified %, total 44 -9 Worse Relations between KRG/Baghdad, % better 12 -27 Much worse K’stan become independent country, Kurds 82 +3 Stable
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1. Would security concerns diminish, leading to greater focus on economic issues and basic services?
Ø Security perceptions improve slightly while increasing services and corruption concerns lead to worsening mood
Ø Lack of responsiveness on these issues leading to disillusionment with politics and political leaders, but faith in democracy still high
Critical questions asked in December 2014
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45
41 41 37
48
40 31
41 34
26
44
50 50 50
44
54
65
51 55
65
0
20
40
60
80
Nov-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Sep-15
Right direction Wrong direction
Right direction at all-time low Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?
Right direction Shia 39%
Sunni 13% Kurd 3%
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0 2
3
5
12
15
30
37
43
48
0 10 20 30 40 50
Central government and the KRG
Education and schools
High prices
Sectarianism and the division of the
Internally displaced Iraqis
Jobs and unemployment
Basic services like electricity and
Corruption
Security
Which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address. ∆ Dec’14
-13
+9
+27
-3
-7
-2
-4
-3
N/A
N/A
Jump in services, corruption concerns, drop in security
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Service concerns up to earlier levels, corruption all-time high Which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address.
36
16
32
27
27 31
50 52 61
48
22
33
27
30
23
28 31 29
34 43
29
48 41
35 42
28 24
14 10
37
0
20
40
60
80
Nov-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Sep-15
Security Corruption Basic Services
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Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.
94 74
49 66
90 83 84
58 63
78 43
59
3
10 46
14 5 4 11 9
31 6
53 19
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Kurdistan West
South Baghdad
Kurdistan West
South Baghdad
Kurdistan West
South Baghdad
Worse Better
Security
Corruption
Electricity
Improved security driven by South; corruption, electricity worse
∆ Dec’14 Better
-26
+16 -6 --
-28
-4 -9 -5
-59
-36
-29
-28
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Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.
70
66
72
59
85
50
68
35
23
21
22
33
9
20
24
37
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Kurdistan
West
South
Baghdad
Kurdistan
West
South
Baghdad
Worse Better
Iraqi government’s responsiveness to the people’s needs
Local government’s responsiveness to the people’s needs
Government responsiveness worsening
∆ Dec’14 Better
-5 -5 --
-7
∆ Feb ’13 -16
-44
-16 +6
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36 20 18 15 14 14 11 10
6 4
43 49 57 56 57 59 62 66 71
34
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Badr al-Ahrar Da'wa PUK ISCI KDP Goran Mvmt.
Mutahidoon Iraqi Nat. Acc.
Al-Amal
% Favorable % Unfavorable
Except for Badr, all party favorable ratings down
Δ Dec’14 +6 -9 -10 -4 -13 -9 -4 N/A -3 N/A
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Still a desire for democracy I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.
58 65 67 69
30 27 20 21
0
20
40
60
80
Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Sep-15
Democracy is the best form of government for Iraq, even if it has flaws. Another form of government aside from democracy is better for Iraq.
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2. Could Abadi maintain high favorable ratings?
Ø Abadi favorable rating remains high and not getting
the negative impact of other political leaders
Ø At this time, Abadi remains the single political leader that can potentially appease all sects, though Kurds remain difficult
Critical questions asked in December 2014
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65
13 21
29
81 71
0
20
40
60
80
100
Abadi Council of Rep. Local Gov't*
Approve Disapprove
Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job [leader or institution] is doing?
Abadi job approval fell, but remains high
Δ Dec’14 -10 +10
*Local government approval not asked in Kurdistan
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58
76 76
42
14
78
46
12 21
8 11 17
77
10 17
65
0
20
40
60
80
Total Baghdad South West North Shia Sunni Kurds
I want to continue in the direction Haider al-Abadi is taking Iraq.
I want to go in a very different direction than Haider al-Abadi is taking Iraq.
Plurality of Sunni want to continue in Abadi direction
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54 30 17 16 15 11 10 9 5
31 45
57 73 68 63
75 68 79
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Abadi Sadr Hakim Maliki M. Barzani Jabouri Allawi Massoum Nujaifi
% Favorable % Unfavorable Δ Dec’14 -2 -5 -13 -9 -16 -22 -4 -14 -8
Abadi favorable rating higher than other political leaders I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.
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75 49
30 28 2 15 30
49 56
92 -100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Abadi Sadr Hakim Maliki Allawi
% Favorable % Unfavorable Δ Dec’14 +4 -8 N/A -17 -5
Abadi high favorable ratings among Shia I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.
Among Shia only
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75
39 5
15 34
82
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Among Shia
Among Sunni
Among Kurds
% Unfavorable % Favorable Δ Dec’14 +4 -7 -13 -5 +5 -16 +15 -12 +17
Abadi relatively strong among Shia, but weakening with others
84
53
17 13
35
74
0
20
40
60
80
100
Shia Sunni Kurd
Approve Disapprove
78
46
12 10 17
65
0
20
40
60
80
Shia Sunni Kurd
I want to continue in the direction Haider al-Abadi is taking Iraq.
I want to go in a very different direction than Haider al-Abadi is taking Iraq.
Abadi job approval Abadi favorability
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3. Would Sunni perception of sectarian tensions continue to improve?
Ø Sunnis worried that Abadi reverting to previous government’s lack of inclusiveness
Ø Openings for reconciliation with a focus on judicial reform and on “fairness” and “equality” issues
Ø Decentralization not the answer in itself – lack of trust in local government
Ø Contradictory attitudes among Sunnis toward Iraqi Army and PMU
Critical questions asked in December 2014
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Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.
88
61
46
9
28
47
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Kurds
Sunni
Shia
Worse Better
Sectarianism perceived as worsening, but some improvement
∆ Dec’14 Better
+12
+6 -2
Sectarianism
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67
25
2
36 36
24
12
53
23
0
20
40
60
80
More inclusive About the same Less inclusive
Shia Sunni Kurds
Weakening perception of Abadi inclusivity among Sunni Compared to Maliki's government, do you think the Abadi government is being more inclusive of Sunnis, less inclusive of Sunnis, or is it about the same as the previous Maliki government?
Δ Dec’14 +2 -15 -3 -4 +7 +19 +0 +8 -6
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81 91
80 83
36 30
83
54
4 14 3 8 11
58 53
8 27
88
0
20
40
60
80
100
Shia Sunni Kurds Shia Sunni Kurds Shia Sunni Kurds
Fairly represented Unfairly represented Δ Dec’14 -6 +4 +1 -1 +2 -1 +0 +0 -14 +13 +3 +4 -3 -2 -6 +3 -19 +22
I would like to ask you about the Abadi government and how it represents various sects, ethnicities, and religions. For each one, please tell me if you think the Abadi government fairly or unfairly represents that specific sect, ethnicity, or religion, or if it unfairly represents that group.
Majority of Sunni, Kurds feel unfairly represented in gov’t
Sunni Shia Kurds
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44
64
24
12
41
26
50
74
0
20
40
60
80
Total Shia Sunni Kurd
Iraq is mostly a unified country. Iraq is mostly a divided country.
Majority of Sunni, Kurds see a divided country
Δ Dec’14 -9 +6 -5 +1 -23 +13 -10 +17
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Generally speaking, how likely do you think it is to have reconciliation/political accommodation between the various sects in Iraq?
Weak optimism on reconciliation, accommodation
17 25
7 7 12 15 14 2
58
73
44
30
45 49
45
33
0
20
40
60
80
Total Shia Sunni Kurds Total Shia Sunni Kurds
Very Somewhat
“Reconciliation” “Political accommodation”
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There are several laws the Council of Representatives is currently debating. Which one of the following laws being debated do you think will be most important to achieve political accommodation in Iraq?
Amnesty Law most important for political accommodation
12 13 10 11
Total Shia Sunni Kurds
26 27
36
9 0
10
20
30
40
Total Shia Sunni Kurds
16 21
5
15
Total Shia Sunni Kurds
Federal Court Law General Amnesty Law National Guard Act
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14
18
34
37
38
49
43
54
80
76
73
78
0 20 40 60 80 100
Decentralizing power to provincial administrations
Giving provinces more power to handle their affairs
Equitable sharing of political power among sects
Equitable sharing of resources among sects
Improving the economy
Ensuring a fair judicial process
Very effective Somewhat effective
Here is list of ways to achieve political accommodation between the various sects in Iraq. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a very effective way to achieve political accommodation between the various sects in Iraq, somewhat effective, not very effective, or not an effective way at all to achieve political accommodation between the various sects in Iraq.
Fair judicial process most effective for accommodation
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26
20
19
19
37
27
16
14
40
52
40
59
11
20
36
33
37
51
0 20 40 60
Decentralizing power to provincial administrations
Giving provinces more power to handle their affairs
Equitable sharing of political power among sects
Equitable sharing of resources among sects
Improving the economy
Ensuring a fair judicial process
Shia Sunni Kurds
Fair judiciary, equitable resources most popular among Sunni
Very Effective
Here is list of ways to achieve political accommodation between the various sects in Iraq. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a very effective way to achieve political accommodation between the various sects in Iraq, somewhat effective, not very effective, or not an effective way at all to achieve political accommodation between the various sects in Iraq.
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19 15 13
42
30 32
23
37 40 46 47
8 0
10
20
30
40
50
Total Shia Sunni Kurds
Very Somewhat Little/not
Decentralization least important among Sunni Now, I would like to ask you about decentralization of government - that is, taking some of the power from the central government and giving it to local governments. Generally speaking, how important is it to you that the central government allows local governments to assume more responsibility for decisions in the provinces?
49% 47% 36% 80%
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51 62
49
13
25 24 6
60
0
20
40
60
80
Total Shia Sunni Kurds
The central government should have greater authority over decisions that matter to my life than the local governments.
The local governments should have greater authority over decisions that matter to my life than the central government.
Central gov’t preferred over local gov’t among Shia, Sunni
27% of Sunni say “Both”
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27 29 8 17
66
45 50 50
73
20 0
20
40
60
80
Total Shia Sunni Think central govt should have more authority
Think local govt should have
more authority
Series1 Series2
I think local governments should have greater authority over decisions than the central government because local governments are less corrupt.
I worry that spreading out authority over decisions to local governments will only give more people the chance to steal from the public budget.
Local government preference linked to corruption perceptions
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Generally speaking, how effective do you think the local government is in bringing progress to your province?
Sunni, Shia do not view local gov’t as effective, but important
11 7 5
35 29
21 30
53 38 35
19
70 60
49
68
85
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Shia Sunni Kurds Total Shia Sunni Kurds
Very Somewhat
Generally speaking, how important do you think the local government is in bringing progress to your province?
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24
29
35
41
43
44
60
66
31
35
39
52
30
33
32
22
45
36
26
7
27
23
8
12
0 20 40 60 80 100
Basic services like electricity and water
Infrastructure, roads and bridges
Public health
The fight against corruption
Public education
Creating jobs
Security
How the budget is allocated
Central government
Now, I want to read you another list of issues. For each one, please tell me if you think the central Iraqi government or your provincial administration should have more control over that particular issue in your province.
Sunni more likely to want central gov’t than Shia
38
36
30
47
57
50
62
70
29
6
18
2
19
18
4
11
0 20 40 60 80 100
Both/Dk/Refused Provincial administration
Shia Sunni
Sunni-Shia for central
+4
+2
+6
+14
+6 -5
+7
+14
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60
90
29
14
29 7
58 60
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Shia Sunni Kurd
Generally speaking, the Iraqi Army is composed of and represents all Iraqis.
Generally speaking, the Iraqi Army is mainly composed of and only represents Shia.
Majority of Sunni, Kurds see Army composed mainly of Shia
Δ Dec’14 0 +4 -1 +1 +1 +10 0 +11
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54 66
34
8 21 22 23 13
22 12
37
64
0
20
40
60
80
Total Shia Sunni Kurds
Iraqi army Both/Neither Local forces
Who do you trust more to keep you safe - the Iraqi Army or your local forces?
Who do you trust more to keep you safe the Iraqi Army or the Popular Mobilization Units or PMUs?
Sunni, Kurd distrust of Iraqi Army and PMUs
-28 +6 -24 +3 -34 +13 -9 -17
35 30
48
0
31
45
4 1 25 23 27 32
Total Shia Sunni Kurds
Iraqi army PMUs Both/Neither Δ Dec’14
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Generally speaking, do you support or oppose the use of Popular Mobilization Units, or PMUs, to fight Da'esh?
Based on what you know, how important are the Popular Mobilization Units in the fight against Da'esh?
Slight majority of Sunni support, see importance of PMUs
81
100
52
5 15 0
41
78
Total Shia Sunni Kurds
Very/Somewhat Important Little/Not Important
81
99
50
6 16 1
42
80
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Shia Sunni Kurds
Support Oppose
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22
31
23
6 1 4
15
24
30
5 3 7
17
41
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
Within 6 months 6-12 months 1-2 years 2 years or more Never
Shia Sunni Kurds
Shia most optimistic about the fight against Da’esh How long do you think it will take for Iraq to defeat Da'esh?
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4. Would Kurdistan strengthen relations with Baghdad? Ø KRG-Baghdad relations worsening Ø Desire for independence among Kurds steady as
perception of KRG direction worsens Ø High levels of political polarization between KDP
and PUK/Goran voters, which could portend internal conflicts
Critical questions asked in December 2014
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Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.
68
71
83
95
64
70
67
17
8
2
2
7
16
17
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Shia
Sunni
Kurds
Kurdistan
West
South
Baghdad Worse Better
Relations between KRG, Baghdad viewed as worsening
∆ Dec’14 Better -44
-21
-26
-15
-14
-33 -28
Relations between the KRG
and the central government
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28
82
22 13
60
9
56
78
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Kurds Sunni Shia
Kurdistan should become an independent country.
Kurdistan should remain an autonomous region of Iraq.
Kurds’ desire for independence remains strong
Δ Dec’14 +0 -3 +3 -5 +0 -7 +1 -1
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33
16
46
36
53
75
38 41
0
20
40
60
80
Kurdistan total KDP PUK Goran
It is more important for the Kurdistan Regional Government to resolve the budget crisis with Baghdad.
It is more important for the Kurdistan Regional Government to develop a new constitution.
Partisan divide on importance of budget crisis and constitution
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Kurdistan direction: all-time high wrong direction Generally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?
85
72 74 78
65 63 74
63 56
43
9 21 22
15
30 29 23
33
20
49
0
20
40
60
80
100
Nov-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Sep-15
Right direction Wrong direction
Kurdistan only
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99
31 7
57
79 83 89
52 43
1
67
87
39
21 17 9
48 57
0
20
40
60
80
100
KDP voters
PUK voters
Goran voters
KDP voters
PUK voters
Goran voters
KDP voters
PUK voters
Goran voters
Approve Disapprove
Partisan divide on job approval Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job [leader or institution] is doing?
Massoud Barzani Kurdistan Parliament KRG
Page 44
41 38 36 32 31
46 40 50 49 45
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20
0 20 40 60 80
100
M. Barzani Mohammed N. Barzani Kosrat Rasul F. Massoum
% Favorable % Unfavorable Δ Jan’15 -10 N/A -14 N/A +5
Barzanis’ favorability ratings drop I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.
Kurdistan only
Page 45
95
45 39 22 24
56 56 45
6 20 20
90
2 32 29 47
63
37 24
34
84
60 66
7
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
M. Barzani Kosrat Rasul Massoum Mohammed M. Barzani Kosrat Rasul Massoum Mohammed M. Barzani Kosrat Rasul Massoum Mohammed
% Favorable % Unfavorable
Kurdistan leaders’ favorability ratings among partisans
KDP voters PUK voters Goran voters
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44 38 36
34 50 45
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
PUK KDP Goran
% Favorable % Unfavorable
KDP’s favorability rating drops; PUK, Goran stable
Δ Jan’15 +1 -7 -1
Kurdistan only
Page 47
96
42 24 18
86
35 8
37
93
2 35
55 67
7 41
83
31 7
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
KDP PUK Goran KDP PUK Goran KDP PUK Goran
% Favorable % Unfavorable
Kurdistan parties' favorability ratings among partisans
KDP voters PUK voters Goran voters
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39
94
17 4
51
6
74
89
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total KDP PUK Goran
Approve Disapprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the extension of President Massoud Barzani's term?
Partisan divide on extending Barzani’s presidential term
45
99
16 15
49
0
77 82
Total KDP PUK Goran
Yes No
Do you think that President Massoud Barzani should remain president until the crisis with Da'esh is over?
Kurdistan only
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36
10
56 62
33
82
9 19
13 0 11 10 7 3 12 7 0
20
40
60
80
100
Total KDP PUK Goran
Kurdish parliament President Peshmerga KRG PM
Which of the following institutions do you think should have the greatest authority over decisions in Kurdistan?
Partisan divide on Kurdish authority, presidential election
47
98
19 16
46
0
72 79
Total KDP PUK Goran
Direct Parliament
Do you want to directly elect your president or do you want Parliament to elect the president?
Kurdistan only
Page 50
46
19
52 58
50
77
44 39
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total KDP PUK Goran
Divided Unified
Generally speaking, do you think there are significant divisions within the Peshmerga forces or do you think the Peshmerga are a mostly unified fighting force?
Split on Peshmerga divisions; concerned about KRG tensions
94 94 94 93
5 5 6 7
Total KDP PUK Goran
Concerned Not concerned
How concerned are you that the tensions among the political parties in Kurdistan will lead to internal conflict in the KRG?
Kurdistan only
