Labour Market Outlook in LabradorLabour Market Outlook in Labrador

A Presentation for theA Presentation for theWorkforce Connex Forum: Labrador Workforce Connex Forum: Labrador

June 19June 19thth, 2006, 2006

Department of Human Resources, Labour & Employment

2

Objectives of the Presentation

To help facilitate discussion among participants in the Workforce Connex Forum by:

– Providing a high level overview of some key labour market trends for Labrador, including examples of sub-regional differences

– Providing an overview of some current concerns and opportunities as put forward by participants in the Fall 2005 Labour Market Information Workshops

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Background: Research on Provincial Labour Market Trends Changing labour demand

How many workers will be needed?

Employment growth Duration of employment

Part-year work/Seasonality

Unemployment spells

Where will workers needed? Industry distribution and

growth Occupational distribution

and growth Skill level and education Business size and

distribution Wage growth Recruitment and retention

issues Skill shortages

What’s going on elsewhere?

Quantity and quality of the labour supply

Where will workers come from? Demographics

Distribution/Growth/Decline Age

Out-migration Immigration and In-migration Expatriates Local Workflows

What skills and experience will workers have?

Formal education, workplace training, informal learning

Literacy and essential skills Post-secondary enrolments,

graduates, outcomes

Who is in the labour force? Participants, employed,

unemployed, not in the labour force

Marginalized groups & barriers

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General Labour Market Overview: Labrador Region

Many common trends with the island portion of the province and other jurisdictions:– Demographic change– Rural and urban and sub-regional differences– Out-migration, immigration– Education levels of the workforce– Increasing skills demands– Recruitment and retention of workers

However, many unique or different influences in the regional labour market:– Geographic distribution of the population

• Workflows• Local training

– Industry and occupational distribution & future opportunities– Rate of population change– Employment growth & employment income– Attraction and retention of workers– Aboriginal population

• Labour supply growth • Education levels

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Emerging Labour Market Opportunities & Concerns

“What We Heard: A Summary of Regional Perspectives on Labour Market Trends in Newfoundland and Labrador”, LMI Workshops Fall 2005

Overall outlook among participants in Labrador very optimistic

Future employment development opportunities cited for Labrador– Mining sector (e.g. IOCC Expansion)– Development of the Lower Churchill– Completion of the Trans-Labrador Highway– Developments in the oil and gas sector– Environmental clean-up at CFB Goose Bay

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Emerging Labour Market Concerns & Opportunities cont’d

Changing Demographics– Population Decline and Aging

• Growth in Aboriginal populations– Out-migration, Intra-provincial migration, Immigration

• Potential for in-migration in Labrador & changing retirement patterns– Skill shortages, recruitment and retention

• Limitation for continued growth and expansion• Retention was a major issue in Labrador, especially among some professional

organization• Anticipate increasing competition from Island portion of the province

– Older workers– Decline of rural communities, increasing urbanization, risks for one-industry towns– Increasing opportunities for development and employment in the service sector

(e.g. increasing health services/changing population demands)– Changing consumer demands may require retraining among the existing

workforce for new jobs and skill requirements– Loss of local leaders and volunteer base

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Emerging Labour Market Concerns & Opportunities cont’d

Education & Training– Responsiveness and capacity of the post-secondary education system– Apprenticeship, Local training– Rural/Urban differences

• Education levels among the urban workforce comparable to Canada– Education levels among the workforce, Workplace training – Distance education (e.g. MBA, INAP program)

Career Planning and Youth– Retention of youth

Gender issues– Women driving force behind labour force growth– Daycare, workplace quality issues, wage disparity

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Emerging Labour Market Concerns & Opportunities cont’d

Increasing participation– Older workers, Immigrants, Women, Persons with Disabilities, – Aboriginal Populations

• Education and literacy levels, widening mismatch between skills available and new entrants

• Limits capacity to take advantage of new opportunities

Labour market information– More information tailored to specific groups– Reaching employers– Increasing awareness of opportunities, especially among youth– Capacity building

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Labour Supply HighlightsPopulation Distribution– About 70% of population in Labrador lives in Laborador West or Happy

Valley-Goose Bay areas– 5.3% of provincial population in 2005 (little change since 1991, slight

increase by 2020)– 52% of the Aboriginal population in the province (Census 2001)– 65% of population is between 20 and 64 years old

Population Aging and Decline– Next to the Avalon Region, Labrador has the second lowest rate of

population decline– From 2005 to 2020, total population decline will continue but at a slower

pace– Decline of the working-age population is going to accelerate– Average retirement age has decreased to about 61 years old.– About 22% of the population (15-64 years old) are currently within 10 years

of the average retirement age.

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Population Change – Sub-Regional Differences

1991-2005 2005-2020f-11.0% -4.9%

RSR 1: Labrador Region -12.7% -1.5%10.8% 7.1%

-21.4% -2.2%-9.3% -0.6%

-13.2% -10.8%-12.1% -4.6%

Total Population Change (%)Period

RegionProvince

Economic Zone 1Economic Zone 2Economic Zone 3Economic Zone 4Economic Zone 5

1991-2005 2005-2020f-2.3% -12.4%-4.7% -7.2%25.3% 13.8%-9.2% -16.7%-5.8% -1.3%-1.2% -9.5%

-12.8% -11.4%Economic Zone 5

Region

Total Population Change (%) - Age 20-64 YearsPeriod

Economic Zone 1Economic Zone 2Economic Zone 3Economic Zone 4

ProvinceRSR 1: Labrador Region

Data Analysis/Presentation prepared by HRLE based on results from the Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch Population Projection System.Note: Medium scenario assumptions used for projections to 2020

The rate of population growth in Economic Zone 1 is higher than anywhere else in the province, including the St. John’s CMA.

12.6% of the population in Labrador resided in Economic Zone 1 in 2005Aboriginal population has a strong influence on Labrador population trends

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Population trends may lead to labour shortages…

Ratio of Potential New Labour Market Entrants (15-24yrs) for Every Potential Retiree (55-

64yrs), Province

0

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Population (15-24 Years & 55-64 Years), 1991-2020, Actual and Projected

Popu

latio

n

15-24 55-64

Ratio of Potential New Labour Market Entrants (15-24yrs) for Every Potential Retiree (55-64yrs)

RSR 1 Labrador

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019

Population (15-24 Years & 55-64 Years), 1991-2020, Actual and Projected

Popu

latio

n

15-24 Year Olds 55-64 Year Olds

However, there will be differences among regions and…

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There will be differences within regions

Ratio of Potential New Labour Market Entrants (15-24yrs) for Every Potential Retiree (55-64yrs)

Zone 1

0

1,000

1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019

Population (15-24 Years & 55-64 Years), 1991-2019, Actual and Projected

Popu

latio

n

15-24 Year Olds 55-64 Year Olds

Ratio of Potential New Labour Market Entrants (15-24yrs) for Every Potential Retiree (55-64yrs)

Zone 2

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019

Population (15-24 Years & 55-64 Years), 1991-2019, Actual and Projected

Popu

latio

n

15-24 Year Olds 55-64 Year Olds

Labour Supply Highlights: Workflows in Newfoundland and Labrador•The majority of workers in Labrador live and work in same community

Source: Prepared by Geostats. Based on 2001 Census Workflow data from custom tabulation provided by Statistics Canada

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Proportion of Population 25-54 Years Old Province

Labrador Region

10A: Pinware

River

10B: Labrador

East Coast

10C: Goose Bay

Area

10D: Labrador

West

10E: Labrador

NorthTotal - Highest level of schooling 100.0%Less Than High School 30.8% 26.7% 37.9% 32.3% 27.6% 20.7% 36.6%High School Diploma 9.3% 10.2% 14.1% 11.3% 6.5% 12.9% 7.6%Incomplete Post-Secondary 7.1% 8.2% 9.6% 5.6% 9.4% 6.7% 12.5%Post-Secondary Certificate or Diploma 40.0% 46.0% 31.1% 45.1% 47.2% 50.3% 33.0%University Degree 12.8% 8.9% 6.2% 4.9% 9.6% 9.5% 9.8%

Labour Supply: Education and Training

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Majority of workers do not participate in workplace training

Main Types of Formal Training

– Occupational health, safety and environmental protection

– Team building, communication

– Decision making, problem solving

Main Types of Informal Training

– Equipment– Computer

Applications

Workplace Training

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

RSR 1-Labrador

RSR 2 & 3-Corner Brook-St. Anthony

RSR 4-Stephenville-Port Aux Basques

RSR 5-GFW-Baie Verte-Harbour Breton

RSR 6-Gander-New Wes Valley

RSR 7-Clarenville-Bonavista

RSR 8-Burin Peninsula

RSR 9-Avalon

Total-Province

Proportion of Population

Both Formal and Informal Formal Training Only Informal Training Only No Training

Source: Preliminary Results, Newfoundland and Labrador Labour Activity Survey, NLSA (2004)

Labour Supply: Education and Training

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Labour Demand: Employment

Employment…Those with Employment Income

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002C

ount

(tho

se w

ith e

mpl

oym

ent i

ncom

e)

RSR 1 - Labrador

Labrador and the Avalon Regions are the only two regions where employment has met or exceeded 1990 levels in the past five years

Average employment income has also been increasing in the province and Labrador

Average employment incomes in Labrador are the second highest in the provinceNote again, there are sub-provincial differences

Source: Based on Canada Revenue Agency summary information as provided by Small Area and Administrative Data Division, Statistics Canada.

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Labour Demand: Part-year employment

NL has the highest percentage of part-year workers in the

country at 52%.

Distribution of FY & PY Workers (18-64 years old), Census 2001Reference Year

10.0%

30.0%

50.0%

70.0%

90.0%N

L

RS

R1-

Labr

ador

RS

R2

RS

R3

RS

R4

RS

R5

RS

R6

RS

R7

RS

R8

RS

R9

Agg

.C

MA

/CA

Agg

. Non

-C

MA

/CA

Worked part-year (1-48 weeks) Worked full-year (49 weeks or more)

•Part-year employment is a major influence on provincial labour markets

68% of workers in rural areas were employed in part-year jobs in 2001.

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Work Activity in 2000, Local Areas Within the Labrador Region (RSR 1)Population Age 18-64 Years, Census 2001

Local Areas (HRLE) Part-Year Full-YearTotal

Worked Did Not WorkPinware River (CCS 10A) 73.5% 27.0% 81.8% 17.8%Labrador East Coast (CCS 10B) 80.7% 19.3% 86.6% 13.4%Goose Bay Area (CCS 10C) 42.2% 57.8% 83.7% 16.4%Labrador West (CCS 10D) 41.2% 58.8% 76.7% 23.3%Labrador North (CCS 10E) 66.4% 33.6% 81.7% 18.3%

Labrador Region (RSR 1) 50.0% 50.0% 80.8% 19.2%

% of Total Worked % of Working-Age Population

In 2001, 68% of the Aboriginal Identity population in Labrador (15+ Years) worked part-year or part-time

Labour Demand: Part-year employment

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Duration of work has been increasing…

Weeks Worked, Census, Reference Year 18-64 Year Olds, RSR 1- Labrador Region

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

1 to 11weeks

12 to 14weeks

15 to 20weeks

21 to 48weeks

Worked full-year (49 weeks

or more)

1990 2000

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Labour Demand: Industry Employment

Province:

Total - Industry (based on 1980 SIC) 245,275

Division J - Retail Trade Industries 12.9%

Division P - Health and Social Service Industries 12.7%

Division E - Manufacturing Industries 10.2%

Division N - Government Service Industries 8.2%

Division O - Educational Service Industries 7.9%

Labrador Region:

Total - Industry (based on 1980 SIC) 14,945

Division D - Mining (including milling), Quarrying and Oil Well Industries 15.4%

Division J - Retail Trade Industries 11.5%

Division P - Health and Social Service Industries 9.9%

Division N - Government Service Industries 9.4%

Division R - Other Service Industries 7.4%

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Labour Demand: Top Three Industries for Employment within Region

CCS 10A-Pinware River

CCS 10B- Labrador East

Coast

CCS 10C- Goose Bay Area

CCS 10D- Labrador West

CCS 10E- Labrador North

Manufacturing (17.1%)

Fishing & Trapping (20.0%)

Health and Social Service (15.9%)

Mining (37.1%) Health and Social Service (16.0%)

Fishing & Trapping (15.7%)

Manufacturing (19.7%)

Government Service (15.6%)

Retail Trade (11.6%)

Government Service (15.6%)

Retail Trade (10.6%)

Construction (9.7%)

Retail Trade (12.7%)

Accommodation & Food Services (7.2%)

Educational Services (11.8%)

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Labour Demand: Top Five Industries for Growth 1995-2000

Source: Custom tabulation, 1996 and 2001 Census, Statistics Canada

Province:Labrador Region:Numbers of Workers•Construction Industries•Health and Social Service Industries•Business Service Industries•Wholesale Trade Industries•Fishing and Trapping Industries

Rate of Growth•Real Estate Operator and

Insurance Agent Industries•Business Service Industries•Construction Industries•Wholesale Trade Industries•Health and Social Service Industries•Agricultural and Related Service

Industries***

Numbers of Workers•Health and Social Service Industries•Business Service Industries•Fishing and Trapping Industries•Wholesale Trade Industries•Manufacturing Industries

•Fish ProcessingRate of Growth•Business Service Industries•Fishing and Trapping Industries•Wholesale Trade Industries•Health and Social Service Industries•Mining (including milling), Quarrying

and Oil Well Industries

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Labour Demand: Occupational DistributionDistribution of Employment by Custom Occupation (%, 1991 SOC); NL, Census

2001 (Reference Year)

Office and related14%

Sales and service

26%

Trades, transport and equipment operators and

related16%

Processing and manufacturing

7%

All other occupations

10%Management

8% Health6%

Education5%

Primary8%

Distribution of Employment by Custom Occupation (%, 1991 SOC); Labrador, Census

2001 (Reference Year)

Office and related12%

Sales and service

25%

Trades, transport and

equipment operators and

related22%

Processing and manufacturing

7%

All other occupations

10%Management8% Health

3%

Education4%

Primary9%

Source: Statistics Canada, custom tabulation; Census 2001

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Labour Demand: Top Three Occupations within region

CCS 10A-Pinware River CCS 10B- Labrador

East CoastCCS 10C- Goose

Bay AreaCCS 10D- Labrador

WestCCS 10E- Labrador

North

Sales and Service (21.2%)

Primary Occupations (25.9%)

Sales and Service (28.6%)

Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators (28.4%)

Sales and Service (29.7%)

Primary (19.8%) Sales and Service (19%)

Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators (17.7%)

Sales and Service (23.8%)

Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators (16.3%)

Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators (19.8%)

Processing and Manufacturing (19%)

Office and Related (16.5%)

Office and Related (11.0%)

All Other Occupations (16.0%)

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Labour Demand: Top Five Occupations for Growth 1995-2000

Province:Labrador Region:Numbers of Workers• Other - Management• Clerical occupations• Other - Primary• Other - Processing and manufacturing• Fishers

Rate of Growth• Other - Management• Other - Primary• Fishers• Other - Processing and manufacturing• Other - Office and related

Numbers of Workers• Fishers• Other - Management• Other - Health• Fish processing workers• Other - Office and related

Rate of Growth• Other - Office and related• Fishers• Other – Health (not nurrses)• Fish processing workers• Other - Management

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Labour Demand: Vacancies

Distribution of Firms With Reported Vacancies

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

NL RSR1 RSR2 RSR3 RSR4 RSR5 RSR6 RSR7 RSR8 RSR9

Note: To date, 5087 firms (mainly small, employing 10 or less employees) have been interviewed for the Wage Rate Survey.Source: Newfoundland and Labrador Wage Rate Survey, Special Tabulations by Bristol Group. Results are preliminary.

Vacant positions

•51% of firms in 2004 employed 1 to 4 employees, 29% employed 5 to 19 workers (Province: 60% and 35% respectively

•Labrador has 5.2% of all businesses in province, similar to population distribution

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Hard-to-Fill PositionsHard to Fill Vacancies by Occupation, NL

Processing, Manufacturing and

Utilities5%

Social Science, Education,

Government Service and

Religion6%

Management6%

Health6%

Natural and Applied Sciences

and Related3%

Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport; Primary

Industry Combined6%

Sales and Service38%

Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and

Related 21%

Business, Finance and Administration

9%

•Hard-to-fill positions or shortages cited by workshop participants in Labrador included: mining occupations, teachers, social workers, nurses, sales and services staff, and workers with generic skills/soft skills

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Thank You and For Further Information:

Pamela ToopeDirector, Labour Market Development DivisionDepartment of Human Resources, Labour and Employment3rd Floor, Confederation Building, West BlockP.O. Box 8700St. John’s, NL A1B 4J6

Phone: (709) 729-5184 or (709) 729-6516

Fax: (709) 729-5560

Email: labourmarket@gov.nl.ca

Web: www.labourmarketnetwork.nl.ca (Summer 2006)