Labor Market Risks of a Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake in Alameda County

Richard Holden, U.S. DOL/BLSDonna Bahls, California EDDCharles Real, Cal. Geological Survey

Research Question:

Can existing detailed labor market information be mapped against earthquake shaking intensities to produce estimates of economic exposure?

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)

Developed through a cooperative program between the states and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Data include detailed industry level establishment counts, annual employment, and annual and weekly wages for every county, Metropolitan Statistical Area, and state

QCEWApproximately 96% of business establishments in California are geocoded to physical location Data are confidential in CaliforniaThe data can be aggregated by geographic areas to provide information on business establishments, industry, employment, and wages

QCEW

California

Over 1.2 million Business Establishments

Over 15 million Employees

Almost $200 billion in Quarterly Wages

Earlier uses of QCEW data in disaster areas

Southern California Fires 2003 and 2007

Businesses and Employment within burn areas

Hurricane Katrina – Louisiana and Mississippi

Businesses and Employment within flooded and wind damaged areas

Southern California Wildfires 2003 and 2007

Hurricane Katrina 2005

A Collaboration between

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

California Geological Survey

California Employment Development Department

Labor Market Risks of a Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake in Alameda County

Shaking Intensity Zones in the San Francisco Bay Area

Employers in Shaking Intensity Zones in the San Francisco Bay Area

25,776 Employers400,521 Employees$5.1 B in Quarterly Wages

Zone 8+: Severe Shaking, Moderate/Heavy Damage

Zone 7: Very Strong Shaking, Moderate Damage

11,567 Employers208,709 Employees$3.1 B in Quarterly Wages

Approximately 90 percent of the businesses, employees, and payrolls are in most intense shaking zones on the map.

Hayward Event Losses Compared to Hurricane Katrina in 2004

Early map-estimated losses from Katrina

Employers: 31,000Employees: 500,000Payroll: $4.7 B quarterly wages

Less than estimated exposure in MMI 7 and 8+ zones

Industry Exposures in Alameda County (MMI 8+)

Health care and social assistanceManufacturingTrade (wholesale and retail)Educational servicesOthers

Hayward 6.9 Earthquake

Potential for major economic dislocation to businesses, employees and economyPossible wide-ranging multiplier effects across industriesEffects felt in Bay Area and California

www.bls.gov (search for Hayward Earthquake)