La prise de décision
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Transcript of La prise de décision
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“45 % of all our decisions
are wrong”
WHY?
Roger Claessens, Prof. UBI
www.rogerclaessens.be
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Could your neighbour introduce
YOU?
Why than such a high
%?3
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You may remember the…
1. Define
2. Measure
3. Analyse
4. Innovate or Improve
5. Control
5 Steps
DMAIC
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7 Stages
1 Define2 Causes of problem3 Possible solutions4 Decide5 Responsibilities6 Evaluate results7 Test
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3 R’s
Reflect RespondRevise
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Maths
2
m
miim
im
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We have TOOLS, don’t we?
THE COMPLEXITY OF DECISION
MAKING
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MARGIN CALL
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• You are in the Arizona desert in the hottest time of the year. You know that you are about 125 km from the nearest town. Fortunately you have some pieces of equipment and items left that you could use for your survival.
• The decision to make is: either to stay put and wait for help or move and walk the 75 miles to the nearest town. Whatever the decision it needs to be taken unanimously!
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• Compass
• Small transistor radio
• Shaving mirror
• Snake repellent
• 1,5-liter of water per person
• 4 square meter of plastic
• Mosquito netting
• 1 case of rations
• Maps of the desert
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• Cushions• 5 litre of an
oil/gas mixture • 1 bottle of rum• Two boxes of
chocolate• 5 meter of ropes• One boomerang
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Decision making
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Intuition is the ability to acquire knowledge without inference or the
use of reason
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Decision Making
Intuition = Recognition
We are often wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are
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Decision Making• System 1 operates automatically and quickly
with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control. It includes the innate skills that we share with other animals.
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• System 2 allocates attention to the effortful
mental activities that demand it, including complex computations. It requires attention and effort.
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Decision Making
Decision Making
Overestimation of intuition and underestimation of what we need for the analytical part of the decision making process will induce:
IRRATIONAL PERSEVERANCE
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Decision Making
When people believe a conclusion is true,
they are also very likely to believe
the arguments that appear to support it,
even when these arguments are unsound.
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Decision Making
High intelligence does not make people immune to
biases!
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Decision Making
The illusion that one has understood the
past feeds the further illusion that one can predict and control the future.
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Decision Making
• It is natural for System 1 to generate
overconfident judgements, because
confidence is determined by the coherence of the best story you can tell from the evidence at hand.
• Therefore your intuitions will deliver predictions that
are too extreme and you will be inclined to put far too much faith in them.
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Decision Making Expertise depends essentially on the quality and
speed of feedback, as well as on sufficient opportunity to practice.
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Decision Making
• When faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without
noticing the Substitution
• There are several ways human choices deviate from
the rules of Rationality
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We have the illusion of making decisions! MIT _ TED Talks
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SO,
WHAT DO WE DO?
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Think Different
Kick start your brain.
New ideas come from
watching something,
talking to people,
experimenting, asking
questions, getting out
of the office
- Steve Jobshttp://steve-jobs-biography.pics-grabber.appspot.com/
Stev
e W
he
ele
r, U
niv
ers
ity
of
Ply
mo
uth
, 20
11
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WHAT MOTIVATES YOU?38
•DO YOU FEEL YOU THINK EFFECTIVELY?
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•DO YOU KNOW WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW?
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This is the result of a way of thinking:
Better
Faster
Cheaper
Smaller
Simpler
Smarter 41
CONSEQUENCES!
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• What were the CONSEQUENCES of the wrong decisions?
• What would have beenCORRECT decisions?
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Discussion
GSM MERCHANT BANK
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CAR DEALERSHIP
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The 20 steps for good DECISIONS
Examine every alternative
Use previous decisions if the are still applicable
Make long term
decisions with the short term
in mind
Change decisions that are no longer appropriate
Consider the implications
of each decision
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The 20 steps for good DECISIONS
Try to foresee and prepare
for any changes
Always ask what can go wrong with
your decision
Always consider the
possible outcomes
Always try to balance
intuition and logic
Avoid making decision that have a large element of chance in
them
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The 20 steps for good DECISIONS
Follow a precedent
when it works
Challenge the
company culture if need be
Be aware of politics behind
decisions
Weigh the impact of decisions on people
Do not be afraid to delegate
the process
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The 20 steps for good DECISIONS
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Do not be afraid of
rejection, think about
an alternative
Build your trust in
decision making
Never make decisions
under pressure
If it proves to be a wrong
decision, take fast action
Never postpone vital
decisions –make them
quickly
Decisions…, don’t forget the
MYTHS
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WHAT YOU WILL BE ABLE TO DO AFTER A GOOD DECISION
« Thinking, fast and slow, Daniel Kahneman,; Penguin Books, 2011
« Blink » Malcolm Gladwell, Back Bay Books, 2005
« Inside Steve’s Brain », Leander Kahney, Atlantic Books, 2008
« The black swan », N.Taleb, Pinguin 2007
« Organisational culture and leadership », Edgar H, Schein, Jossey-
Bass, 2010
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