La Niña and Its Impact on South American Agriculture · USDA Office of the Chief Economist / World...

La Niña and Its Impact onSouth American Agriculture

Presented To

2018 Agricultural Outlook ForumGrain and Oilseeds Session

February 23, 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Mark D. BrusbergChief Meteorologist

USDA Office of the Chief Economist / World Agricultural Outlook Board

What is La Niña?



What is La Niña?

SOURCE: NOAA

ANCHORED: A file photo of fishing boats anchored in Paita, Peru. The warmer waters last year ensured a huge drop in the volume of cold-water anchovies that were caught by the coast. Peru is the world’s top producer of animal feed made of ground-up anchovy, known as fishmeal, and the lack of anchovies is one of the reasons that economic growth slowed to its weakest pace in five years. (Steff Gaulter – Gulf Times, July 26, 2015)

Photo: US Navy/Wikipedia

* NOAA. What are El Niño and La Niña. National Ocean Service website, https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html, accessed on 2/20/18.

* El Niño means The Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The name was chosen based on the time of year (around December) during which these warm waters events tended to occur.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/enso_cycle.shtml

• Easterly winds at surface in eastern Pacific (upwelling of nutrient rich water)

• Increased convection in western Pacific

• Weak easterly or reversal of eastern easterlies (impedes upwelling / deeper thermocline)

• Increased convection in central Pacific


La Niña means The Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply "a cold event.“

La Niña episodes represent periods of below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central Equatorial Pacific. Global climate La Niña impacts tend to be opposite those of El Niño impacts. In the tropics, ocean temperature variations in La Niña also tend to be opposite those of El Niño.

El Niño was named by Peruvian fishers who noticed that the warming of ocean surface waters reduced their anchovy catch. Here fishers pull a load of anchovies off the coast of Peru during normal ocean conditions

http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Da‐En/El‐Ni‐o‐and‐La‐Ni‐a.html


* NOAA. What are El Niño and La Niña. National Ocean Service website, https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html, accessed on 2/20/18.


• Easterly winds at surface in eastern Pacific (upwelling of nutrient rich water)


• Stronger surface easterlies in eastern Pacific (accentuates upwelling / thermocline closer to surface)


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/enso_cycle.shtml


From: The Walker Circulation: ENSO's atmospheric buddy (Tom Di Liberto, August 1, 2014)https://www.climate.gov/news‐features/blogs/enso/walker‐circulation‐ensos‐atmospheric‐buddy

Enhanced CirculationRedirected Circulation

Displacement of the southern jet stream during La Niña results in weaker spring

storms over Argentina with generally less moisture available.

dry

wet

dry


SOURCE:Long‐Term Weather & Agricultural Outlooks

Eric Luebehusen

Revisiting the 2016 La Niña&

Looking Ahead to Spring 2017

Agricultural Outlook ForumWashington, DCFebruary 24, 2017

Lalo de Almeida for The New York Times


Potential Impacts on South American Agriculture

Major

Soybean Production*Average (2005-09)

IntensityProductionMinor

*Source: MINAG / IBGE

Soybean ProductionBrazil

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Soybean crop calendar for most of Brazil & ParaguayPlanting

HarvestingFill

FlowerRio Grande

do Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato Grosso

Bahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

Para

Rondonia

Paraguay

Cr: Subtropical RainAw: Tropical wet and dry


Brazil: Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Late February

Mato Grosso

Parana


Sep 10 Sep 15 Sep 20 Sep 25 Sep 30 Oct 5 Oct 10

Mato Grosso, Brazil – Yearly Starts to the Rainy Season201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000199919981997199619951994199319921991199019891988

Sep 26Sep 24

Oct 10Sep 22

Sep 24Sep 16

Sep 14Oct 1

Sep 9Sep 25

Oct 2Sep 29

Sep 30Sep 30

Sep 7Sep 15

Sep 7Oct 5

Average = Sep 26 Oct 15Oct 3

Sep 9Oct 3

Oct 4

Oct 2Sep 21

Sep 26Oct 5

Sep 28Oct 22

Oct 15 Oct 20

Oct 10Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Measurable rain (accumulation < 30 mm)

Accumulation >= 30 mm

La Niña Year

El Niño

El Niño

Major

Soybean Area*Average (1990-92)

IntensityProduction

Minor

*Source: IBGE

Major

Soybean Area*Average (2012-14)

IntensityProduction

Minor

*Source: IBGE

Brazil Soybean Area1990‐92 versus 2012‐14

Shift in Area (% of Total Area)

Mato GrossoParanaRGDS

2012‐1430.7%17.9%13.6%

1990‐9217.5%21.5%26.2%

Mato Grosso

Parana

Rio Grande do Sul

Mato Grosso

Parana

Rio Grande do Sul


0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Center WestSoybean Yields

Observed Predicted Source: IBGE

El Niño

La NiñaSource: Climate Prediction Center


Center‐West1990‐92: 38%2012‐14: 50%

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MaPiToBaSoybean Yields


El Niño



“MaPiToBa” 1990‐92: 2%2012‐14: 10%

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

SouthSoybean Yields


El Niño



South1990‐92: 50%2012‐14: 33%

Brazil Corn Production

Major

Corn Production*Average (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinor

*Source: IBGE


1st Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil

In Northeast Brazil, 1st crop planted Dec - Jan (harvested May - Jul).

Period of Highest Intensity Plant

Harvest

Source: IBGE Brazil

* State-Level Production(as % of total)

Minas GeraisParanaRio Grande do SulSanta CatarinaGoiasSao PauloBahiaMaranhaoPiauiParaMato GrossoMato Grosso do SulCeara

Other States

20201410995222111

~4* 2011 to 2013 Average


2nd Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil

Plant

Harvest

Source: IBGE Brazil

* State-Level Production(as % of total)

Mato GrossoParanaMato Grosso do SulGoiasSao PauloMinas GeraisSergipeBahiaMaranhaoRondoniaOther States

39251512311111

~1

* 2011 to 2013 Average


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980

/198

1

1981

/198

2

1982

/198

3

1983

/198

4

1984

/198

5

1985

/198

6

1986

/198

7

1987

/198

8

1988

/198

9

1989

/199

0

1990

/199

1

1991

/199

2

1992

/199

3

1993

/199

4

1994

/199

5

1995

/199

6

1996

/199

7

1997

/199

8

1998

/199

9

1999

/200

0

2000

/200

1

2001

/200

2

2002

/200

3

2003

/200

4

2004

/200

5

2005

/200

6

2006

/200

7

2007

/200

8

2008

/200

9

2009

/201

0

2010

/201

1

2011

/201

2

2012

/201

3

2013

/201

4

2014

/201

5

2015

/201

6

Brazil Corn Production: Percent of Total Production by Season

1st CORN PRODUCTION 2nd CORN PRODUCTION

Source: 1980/81 to 2012/13 CONAB‐Series HistoricaAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Apr 10 Apr 15 Apr 20 Apr 25 Apr 30 May 5 May 10

Mato Grosso, Brazil – Yearly End to the Rainy Season201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000199919981997199619951994199319921991199019891988

Apr 16Apr 26

May 10May 6

May 25Apr 25

Apr 19Apr 17

May 5May 15

May 21May 7

May 28

May 4May 21

May 18May 2

Average = May 4

Apr 19May 17

Apr 9

May 11

Apr 14May 24

May 31Apr 6

Apr 12May 16

May 15 May 20

May 21


El Niño

El Niño

May 25

May 4

Apr 5

End of season:Last 10 mm before extended dryness

La Niña Year

Rainfall (mm)August - September 2017

Percent of Normal Rainfall (%)August - September 2017

Major

Soybean Production*Average (2005/06-09/10)

IntensityProduction

Minor

*Source: SAGPyA

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUGSEP OCT NOV DEC

Soybean crop calendar for most of Argentina

PLANT

HARVEST

FILL

FLOWER

(%)

BuenosAires

La Pampa

EntreRios

SantaFe

Cordoba

BuenosAires

La Pampa

EntreRios

SantaFe

Cordoba


Temperature Departure from Normal (C)October 2017

Percent of Normal Rainfall (%)October 2017

Major


IntensityProduction

Minor

*Source: SAGPyA



PLANT

HARVEST

FILL

FLOWER

(°C)(%)

BuenosAires

La Pampa

EntreRios

SantaFe

Cordoba

BuenosAires

La Pampa

EntreRios

SantaFe

Cordoba


Temperature Departure from Normal (C)November 2017

Percent of Normal Rainfall (%)November 2017

Major


IntensityProduction

Minor

*Source: SAGPyA



PLANT

HARVEST

FILL

FLOWER

(°C)(%)

BuenosAires

La Pampa

EntreRios

SantaFe

Cordoba

BuenosAires

La Pampa

EntreRios

SantaFe

Cordoba


Temperature Departure from Normal (C)December 2017

Percent of Normal Rainfall (%)December 2017



PLANT

HARVEST

FILL

FLOWER

(°C)(%)

Major


IntensityProduction

Minor

*Source: SAGPyA

BuenosAires

La Pampa

EntreRios

SantaFe

Cordoba

BuenosAires

La Pampa

EntreRios

SantaFe

Cordoba



JanuaryLockup

Wet Start

StabilizingRain

ExtendedDryness

2017/18

Average


Sporadic Heat

JanuaryLockup

2017/18

Average

35°C


2007/08

2010/112017/18


# Days >= 35°C

2007/08

2010/11

2017/18

2017/182010/11

Average

2007/08


JanuaryLockup

Source: PSD-Online

2007 2010


Temperature Departure from Normal (C)January 2018

Percent of Normal Rainfall (%)January 2018



PLANT

HARVEST

FILL

FLOWER

(°C)(%)

Major


IntensityProduction

Minor

*Source: SAGPyA

BuenosAires

La Pampa

EntreRios

SantaFe

Cordoba

BuenosAires

La Pampa

EntreRios

SantaFe

Cordoba



2017/18

Average

JanuaryLockup

Wet Start

StabilizingRain

ExtendedDryness

StabilizingRain

ExtendedDryness


2017/18

Average

JanuaryLockup

35°C

2017/18

2010/11Average

January Lockup

2007/08


2017/18

2010/11

Average

January Lockup

2007/08


CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO OutlookUpdated: 8 February 2018

A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during March-May). Thereafter, ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through fall 2018.

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)Issued: 18 February 2018

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) favors borderline ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018.


February

La Niña

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board https://iri.columbia.edu/our‐expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal‐climate‐forecasts/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png

https://www.markethallfoods.com/products/anchovy‐fillets‐iasaAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

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La Niña and Its Impact on South American Agriculture · USDA Office of the Chief Economist / World...

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