La Crosse ASHRAE MeetingDecember 9, 2008

Larry ButzGEA Consulting

Environmental UpdateEnvironmental Update

Agenda

• Ozone Depletion• Refrigerants• Global Warming/Climate Change• Energy Alternatives• Buildings Energy Use• Water Shortages

Ozone Hole Stabilizes

The size of this year's Antarctic ozone hole is slightly above the 10-year average in both depth and overall area. Last year's ozone hole broke records for both ozone loss within the critical layer and for the size of the area affected

Nov 2008

Radiative ForcingLong-Lived GHGs

WMO GHG Bulletin 2008

Halocarbon Concentrations

WMO GHG Bulletin 2008

Refrigerants• Coke deploys 100,000 CO2 units by 2010• Ben & Jerry’s tests 50 HC units• GE unveils plans for first HFC-free household

refrigerator to be built and sold in the U.S.; Submits hydrocarbon refrigerant for EPA approval (isobutane)

• HCFC 22(new equipment) phaseout 1/1/2010• DuPont and Honeywell make HFO-1234yf

progress

GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Christopher B. Field, Corinne Le Quéré, Richard A. Houghton, Gregg Marland, Michael R. Raupach

Last update: 26 September 2008

Carbon Carbon BudgetBudget20072007

Global Warming & Climate ChangeGlobal Warming & Climate Change

Emissions from Fossil Fuel + Cement

Data Source: G. Marland, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andres, and J. Gregg at CDIAC

1990 - 1999: 0.9% y-1

2000 - 2007: 3.5% y-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Fo

ssil

Fu

el E

mis

sio

n (

GtC

/y) Emissions

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

2007 Fossil Fuel: 8.5 Pg C

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

Raupach et al 2007, PNAS (updated)

Regional Shift in Emissions Share

Perc

enta

ge o

f Glo

bal A

nnua

l Em

issio

ns

KyotoReference Year

FCCC

KyotoProtocolAdopted

KyotoProtocolEnter intoForce

Current

J. Gregg and G. Marland, 2008, personal communication

62%57%

49.7%

47%38%

43%50.3%

53%

Carbon Intensity of the Global Economy

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Carb

on in

tens

ity

(KgC

/US$

)Kg Carbon Emitted

to Produce 1 $ of Wealth

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006

Phot

o: C

SIRO

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005

Tropical Americas 0.6 Pg C y-1

Tropical Asia 0.6 Pg C y-1

Tropical Africa 0.3 Pg C y-1

2000-2007

Tropical deforestation

13 Million hectares each year

Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change

1.5 Pg C y-1

Born

eo, C

ourte

sy: V

iktor

Boe

hm

[2007-Total Anthropogenic Emissions:8.5+1.5 = 10 Pg]

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2007)

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)

1.5 Pg C y-1

+7.5 Pg C y-1

Atmosphere46%

4.2 Pg y-1

Land29%

2.6 Pg y-1

Oceans26%

2.3 Pg y-1

Climate Change at 55% Discount

Natural CO2 sinks absorb 55% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions slowing down climate change significantly.

They are in effect a huge subsidy to the global economy worth half a trillion US$ annually if an equivalent sink had to be created using other climate mitigation options (based on the cost of carbon in the EU-ETS).

1. The rate of CO2 emissions.

2. The rate of CO2 uptake and ultimately the total amount of C that can be stored by land and oceans:

– Land: CO2 fertilization effect, soil respiration, N deposition fertilization, forest regrowth, woody encroachment, …

– Oceans: CO2 solubility (temperature, salinity),, ocean currents, stratification, winds, biological activity, acidification, …

Factors that Influence the Airborne Fraction

Springer; Gruber et al. 2004, Island Press

% C

O2 E

miss

ions

in

Atm

osph

ere

1960 200019801970 1990

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

2006

Decline in the Efficiency of CO2 Natural Sinks

Fraction of all anthropogenic emissions that stay in the atmosphere

Emissions1 tCO2

400Kg stay

Emissions1 tCO2

450Kg stay

Efficiency of Natural Sinks

Land Fraction

Ocean Fraction

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

65% - Increased activity of the global economy

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

17% - Deterioration of the carbon intensity of the global economy

18% - Decreased efficiency of natural sinks

2000 - 2007: 2.0 ppm y-1

1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1

1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1

1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1

Drivers of Accelerating Atmospheric CO2

To:• Economic growth• Carbon intensity• Efficiency of natural sinks

(calculations based on the period 2000-2006)

• Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are growing x4 faster since 2000 than during the previous decade, and above the worst case emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

• The carbon intensity of the world’s economy is improving slower than previous decades.

• Less Developed Countries are now emitting more carbon than Developed Countries.

Conclusions (i)

• The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by 5% over the last 50 years (and will continue to do so in the future), implying that the longer it takes to begin reducing emissions significantly, the larger the cuts needed to stabilize atmospheric CO2.

• All these changes have led to an acceleration of atmospheric CO2 growth 33% faster since 2000 than in the previous two decades, implying a stronger climate forcing and sooner than expected.

Conclusions (ii)

Global Warming

• 2008 Set To Be About 10th Warmest Year – La Nina kept a lid on temperatures in 2008 despite

an underlying warming trend,• Carbon dioxide was up most in 2007. It increased to

383.1 ppm, ½ % more than the 2006 amount. Methane and nitrous oxide rose by lesser amounts,

• "CO2 alone is responsible for 90 percent of the greenhouse gas warming over the last five years,"

Water Vulnerabilities

FreshwaterFreshwater• Global water consumption is doubling every 20 years,• Water, unlike oil, has no substitute• Climate change is altering the patterns of freshwater availability in

complex ways • It is often grossly underpriced—and hence squandered• The water footprint of China is about 700; Japan 1150; U.S. 2500 m3 per

year per capita.• Producing biofuels will further deplete the world's already overtaxed

water supply. – For 1 gallon of ethanol up to 4,000 gallons of water are required.

Water ShortagesWater Shortages

• by 2025, two-thirds of the world's population will face periodic and often severe water shortages

• In sub-Saharan Africa 42% of the region's population lacks access to a safe water supply

• aging infrastructure, inadequate treatment facilities, and contamination pose more problems.

• Freshwater already is exported via tankers between France and Algeria and Turkey and Israel.

To Produce

- 1 cup of coffee we need 140 liters of water - 1 liter of milk requires 1,000 liters of water - 1 kg of rice requires 3,000 liters of water - 1 kg of beef we need 16,000 liters of water

Producing biofuels will further deplete the world's already overtaxed water supply.

For 1 gallon of ethanol up to 4,000 gallons of water are required.

WaterFootPrint Network

Seven global groups, including WBDSC, joined forces to set up the Water Footprint Network, with the aim of working towards a common approach to water footprint measurement, accounting and reporting.

Clean Energy 2008

Clean Energy 2008

Clean Energy 2008

Renewables

• Benchmark EUAs traded down to 14.45 euros a tonne on Friday, the lowest level since March 2007 and 50 percent below a 2-year high of 29.69 euros hit last July.

• "In places that rely on carbon credits to support new projects, such as China, India and Latin America, the fall in price will delay or possibly kill the marginal, less economically viable projects,

In 2007 new investment in sustainable energy

reached record levels of $148.4 billion, 60%

higher than in 2006.

• New international agency to promote renewable energies – International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). – is meant to be the first truly international

organisation offering both industrialised and developing countries support

• The EU has adopted a binding target to source 20% of its energy needs from renewables by 2020

Renewables

Energy Efficiency

• the only by-product of energy efficiency is wealth, in the form of lower fuel bills and less spending on power stations, pipelines. Etc

• greater efficiency accounts for two-thirds of anticipated emissions savings

• energy intensity is lower in countries where electricity prices are higher

Energy Efficiency in Buildings

Buildings

Buildings already account for up to 40% of primary energy use up to 40% of primary energy use

and demand will grow rapidly with economic

development, population growth and changing lifestyles

The vast majority of energy consumption occurs during a

building’s occupation.

Costs to LEED Certify

Cost of Efficiency Gains

Information Links

• IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch/• World Meteorological Organization: http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html• Waterfootprint: www.waterfootprint.lorg• International Energy Agency: www.iea.org• Alliance to Save Energy: www.ase.org• World business Council for Sustainable Development: www.wbcsd.org• American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy: www.aceee.org • California Institute for Energy and Environment: www.ciee.ucop.edu • Center for Energy and Climate Solutions: www.energyandclimate.org • CleanEdge: www.cleanedge.com • Consortium for Energy Efficiency: www.cee1.org • Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. DOE: www.eere.energy.gov• Energy Information Administration, U.S. DOE: www.eia.doe.gov• ENERGY STAR, U.S. EPA: www.energystar.gov• Industrial Assessment Center, U.S. DOE: www.iac.rutgers.edu • Industrial Technologies Program, U.S. DOE: www1.eere.energy.gov/industry• International Association of Energy-Efficient Lighting: www.iaeel.org• North American Insulation Manufacturers Association: www.naima.org • Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships: www.neep.org • U.S. Green Building Council: www.usgbc.org • World Energy Efficiency Association: www.weea.org

Environmental Update Environmental Update Newsletter

Contact

LButz@GEA-Consulting.comor

www.gea-consulting.com