L04 Evolution of Technology

Evolution of Technology"The way to build a complex system that

works is to build it from very simple systems that work.”

- Kevin Kelly

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson


Innovation


Ideas build upon IdeasEvery generation of technology becomes a source for new innovations


Adjacent PossibleThe untapped potential of what could be...


The 10/10 Rule10 years to build a newplatform, 10 years for itto be adopted

Steven Johnson


The Liquid networkA good idea is a network. Innovations happens with collaboration

Steven Johnson


The Slow HunchA lot of ideas linger on, sometimes for decades, in the back of people’s minds

Steven Johnson


SerendipityThe accident of finding something useful or good without looking for it

Steven Johnson


Evolution How does technology evolve over time?


Cycles


Industries Paradigms Technology Products

Theories of InnovationThe study of innovation can be applied on different things:


Nikolai Kondratiev


Technology innovations are in long cycles, 40-60 years, each representing the application of new group of technologies, which eventually will lead to another wave

Kontrativ Wave

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave

Kontrativ Wave


Wave Years1 First Industrial Revolution 1787–

18422 Railroad and Steam Engine Era 1842–

18973 Age of steel, electricity and internal

combustion1897–1939

4 War and Post-war Boom: Suburbia 1939–1982

5 Post Industrial Era: Information Technology

1982? – ??

Kontrativ Wave


Diffusion of InnovationInnovation grows in three stages

1. Slow growth – The early phase of exponential growth

2. Rapid growth – The late explosive phase of exponential growth

3. A leveling off as theparticular paradigm matures

Technology S-Curve

Based on the notion of Technology Life Cycle– Improvements in performance varies throughout the

life of the technology



TimelineEach wave creates number of new inventions


The Digital RevolutionFirst computers were built using vacuum tubes

Today our cell phone is a powerful computer

Transistor, 1947

Integrated circuit, 1959

Intel 4004, 1971


The Digital Revolution

IBM System/360

360/20 with 24K of memory

Computers in 1964


Number of transistors onan integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months.

Moore’s Law



Technological growthaccelerates


The Fifth Paradigm

30 Years of Product Performance

1977 Apple II $1,2984000 bytes memoryMotorola 6502 1MHz

2007 iMac 17-inch $1,1991GB memoryIntel 2.0GHz


iPad 2 as fast as Cray 2 supercomputer, fraction of the size

Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4

Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011


http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/


ExponentialGrowth

Slow growth in the beginning than accelerates

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri RagnarssonFlickr picture by spwelton

Second half of the Chess board


The Legend of theAmbalappuzha Paal Payasam

Number of transistors onan integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months.

Moore’s Law


Explonential growth


Computers will be faster


Computers will be smaller


Computers will be cheaper


Computers will be everywhere


Things that once were impossible become possible


From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009


63 years later



Source: http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.htm

Bill Buxton’s Long nose of Innovation

The Long Nose of Innovation


Growth ofTechnologyEvolutionary processes – bothbiology and technology, tend to a c c e l e r a t e

Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from TED.com)



The Law of Accelerating ReturnsEvolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage.

As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.

“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological

change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will

be more like 20,000 years of progress

(at today's rate).” - Ray Kurzweil


Technology S-Curve

Based on the notion of Technology Life Cycle– Improvements in performance varies throughout the

life of the technology


Technology S-Curve

Exponential trends can be composed of a sequence of S-curves where each curve is faster


Technology S-Curve


Technology Life Cycle



Technology Life Cycle

In the early daysThe innovators and technologyenthusiasts drive the marketThey demand technologySmall percentage of the market

In the later daysThe pragmatists and

conservativesdominate; they want solutions

andconvenienceThe big market


Technology Adoption Life Cycle

Is this evolution of technology good?



Kranzberg’slaws of technology


1. Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral

2. Invention is the mother of necessity

3. Technology comes in packages, big and small


4. Although technology might be a prime element in many public issues, nontechnical factors take precedence in technology-policy decisions

5. All history is relevant, but the history of technology is the most relevant

6. Technology is a very human activity - and so is the history of technology.

What is the impact of technological change?


Technology is one of the major factors

in change



Opportunity Threat

Example: Digital Photography



Economist article: The last Kodak moment?Kodak is at death’s door; Fujifilm, its old rival, is thriving. Why?

READING ASSIGNMENT


Think about thisThink of a technology that has changed your life


Why did Western Union turn down the telephone?

L04 Evolution of Technology

Technology

Transcript of L04 Evolution of Technology