Kyaw Win's Papers + Kyaw Win's Public Lecture Photos

8/14/2019 Kyaw Win's Papers + Kyaw Win's Public Lecture Photos

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WHAT MATTER MOST IN BURMA POLITICS

I. CURRENT SITUATION

At this juncture –

1. The main opposition group, the National League for Democracy (NLD) is facing a deadly

deadlock. If they want to survive legally, they have no alternatives except participating in 2010

election by the Military Junta.

2. The Junta is also facing a dilemma. The legitimacy of their proposed 2010 election depends on the

participation of opposition groups, especially NLD. However, whether NLD participates or not,

they seen to determine to carry on their own roadmap. So it can be said that their problem is not

strategic, just moral. In politics, moral is usually inferior to strategic needs.

3. The west-driven international support has reached its limit. Beyond this limit, there may be only

one way, Neo-con model, which is proved unworkable in Iraq War.

Whether we like above situation or not, it is reality. Politics is a game based on reality.

II. HISTORICAL FEATURES

Why did Burma democracy movement lead to such bitter situation? The answer may be in the history.

There are very important historical particularities in Burmese politics. They are as follows:

1. The Role of Military

Since 1962, Burmese Military has occupied entire political matrix. To turn the Military from political

organ to professional organ is the main goal of democratic movement. However, this is not an easy

task, so it cannot be implemented during a short period of time. It may be protracted process which

needs not only courage but also tolerance. We have to pass a transitional period before we get our main

goal. During this period we inevitably accommodate the military.

2. The Role of Middle Class

The road to modernity in the East (including Burma) was very different from that of the West. In

Burma there were no historic events like Industrial Revolution or Enlightenment Movement of 18th and

19th century west. Burma engaged with modern social framework through western colonialism.

Therefore, Burma’s business middle class has never become independent social force as in the west. It

heavily depended on ruling parties, the military after 1962. For this reason we can not rely on this class

for the democratic transformation. Politically the most active force in Burma is intellectual middle

class.

3. Maturity of the democratic forces

However, the maturity of the democratic forces, including intellectual is not so good. Living under the

politically gelded condition for about 50 years, (from 1962 to now), democratic Knowledge level of

Burmese people (I mean both common people and party members) is disparately low. Moreover, theinfluence of radical ideology such as Marxism was so strong in Burmese political and literary circles

that most of the popular uprising often fell into the radical black hole ultimately led to complete

eradication by the rulers or violent revolution that means civil war. This kind of outbreak will

inevitably promote the role of military in Burma’s Politics.

4. Weakness of Institutions

In 1962, the military took over and ended civilian rule. The military government consolidated its

power by institutionalizing one party state. Since then, there has been no democratic institution with

check and balance mechanism. After 1988 pro-democracy movement, various political parties

Iowa City Public Library and the International Writing Program Panel Series-October 10,2008: Glaydah Namukasa (Uganda), Lee Jang Wook (South Korea),

Rogelio Saunders (Spain), Kyaw Win (Myanmar), Ioannis Skarags (Greece). For electronic text,please visit: http :// iwp.uiowa.edu



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reemerged but all of them (including NLD) could not institutionalize their organizations to become

strong political forces. Therefore, it can be said that all the institutions in Burma (both government

institutions and political parties) are in very poor conditions.

5. Weakness of Civil Society

In Burma there are some traditional kinds of civil society. However nearly all of them are based on

religious matter and not familiar with modern democratic principles. In late 20th century and early 21st

century, a new from of civil society such as NGOs and INGOs began to emerge. However, without

systematic institutionalization and less of moral and political norms, some of them often turned to

business or semi-business organizations.

Whether we like it or not these historical features are genuine characteristics of Burmese society.

III. POLITICAL SPECTRUM

Under these circumstances, what is to be done? To answer this question, we should understand the

roles and stances of both sides (military and democratic sides) thoroughly.

-Military Side

SLOC and later SPDC successively claimed it was a coup detat government. This is the major

difference between Gen, Nay Win’s military coup in 1962 and the current junta. Actually, the nature of

current junta is transitional. However, they themselves are reluctant for democratic transition, for they

would like to grip power if they can. Nevertheless, they also realize that under constant pressures

domestically and internationally, democratic transformation is inevitable. Their proposed 7-steps Road

Map may be the reflection of their aim and stance. Although their first priority is to extend the time as

long as possible, the monk-led 2007 September uprising accelerated the Road Map process and finally

reached this current situation.

According to this point of view coming 2010 election is the benefit of September movement, so we

should not neglect it. Although the junta’s intention is to protect their power and interests by using its

new constitution, they have to allow a political democratic forces since 1988. No matter how narrow

this space is, we should play carefully in it, because we have no other choice except this one.

Various pro-military elements will surely contest this election.

-Democratic Side

Depending on their roles and stance toward 2010 election, there may be four groups of civilian

politicians. They all are in the democratic Side but their ways of thinking are very different and thus

the outcomes may be very different too.

1. First Group ---------This group represents the hardliners among opposition movements. They will

reject 2010 election and refuse to participate. Most of them are exile. (I think they have their own

interest) Some of NLD leaders may be in this group.

2.

Second Group-------They are also hardliners but they see the election as a step towards aconfrontation with the military. According to their opinion the coming election is a tactical

playground for further escalation of the conflict. Some of NLD leaders and the veteran party

(CPB) may be in this group.

In my opinion the outcomes of these two groups will be the same, violent revolution that can lead

to civil war.

3.Third Group---------This group represents moderate political forces, so-called ‘third force’.

They see the coming election strategically and they tend to expect the 2010 election may offer an


Rogelio Saunders (Spain), Kyaw Win (Myanmar), Ioannis Skarags (Greece).



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opportunity to break through from current dead lock. They want to seek a common ground with

military (that may be economic development) and from that ground to start confidence building

and to seek much need reconciliation for the country.

In my opinion, their thinking may be the most possible trend for future democracy but

unfortunately they are the weakest group in democratic side. Although they have not emerged as

an institutionalized political force yet, they are likely to establish their political platform to contest

the 2010 election.

4. Fourth Group--------This group represents ceasefire groups. Most of them will seek to strengthen

their legitimacy through the exiting electoral process. They may become important ally for third

force.

CONCLUSION

Realistically, the junta’s Road Map is inevitable. The military will not drop its Road Map and seek an

alternative political settlement with opposition. Any political outcomes have to go through the

military-led transitional process. To reject this process means to reject reality. To continue the

democratic course without military is impossible. Politics is art of possible. What matter most in

Burmese Politics is to deal with reality and to choose possible way realistically.

SOCIAL CHANGE:

THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL

Kyaw Win

Whenever I think of social change, a monumental date appears in my mind.

November 9, 1989. This is the most significant date in my life and for our country and (I believe) for the

whole world too. This historic date marked the fall of the Berlin Wall. This meant not only the end of the





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there. We could not think about the world as a whole. When the wall disappeared, our ideologically

isolated eggshell broke, freeing our thinking and our future.

Reference------ The World Is Flat by Thomas Friedman

The Argumentative Indian by Amartya Sen



Kyaw Win's Papers + Kyaw Win's Public Lecture Photos

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