Kwa dukuza second imbizo catch up presentation 5 january 2014 v1 (1)
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Transcript of Kwa dukuza second imbizo catch up presentation 5 january 2014 v1 (1)
THE KWADUKUZA LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS
SECOND IMBIZO: CATCHING UP FROM THE FIRST IMBIZO
SCENARIOS PROCESS PLAN
PHASESPhase 1: Setting up the Conversation
Phase 2: Coming to terms with the challenges
Phase 3: Talking through the 2030 End State VisionPhase 4: Working the conversation back to today Phase 5: Closure
It is not yet here ?
It is has gone past ?
It is moving now ?
TRANSITION
Past Present Future
TRANSITION IMPLIES
• Systems that change in interconnected ways
TRANSITION IMPLIES
• An inevitable destination
• An unpredictable Journey
Transition is slow + simple• Past is clear
• Present is obvious
• Future can be predicted
Transition is fast + complex •Past needs thought•Present is not so obvious
•Future is uncertain : SCENARIOS
GLOBAL TRANSITION
DRIVERS
• reaching peak population
• facing the challenge of a transition to sustainability
• on the planet boundary
• life has been getting better for more people faster than ever before and will probably continue to do so
• technology and innovation: a matter of time & market
• one world one social network
• the off grid village
• multi polar global order
1771 Industrial Revolution
1829 Start of Age of Steam and Railways
1875 Start of Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering
1908 Start of Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production
1971 Age of Information & Telecommunications
2013 Midpoint of Age of Information & Telecommunications
2020 Era of Turbulence
2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?
MID CENTURY
Midpoint of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?
AFRICA IN TRANSITION
1,2 Billion Africans today
2,1 Billion Africans by 2050
1,23 Billion African City Dwellers by 2050
SOUTH AFRICA IN TRANSITION
Cheap Coal
Electricity
Cheap Labour
Minerals Export
Resource curse
Huge Carbon
Footprint
MINERALS ENERGY COMPLEX
A SMALL AFRICAN COUNTRY
• Population Stable & Ageing
• Gets dwarfed in the African context to MID CENTURY Country Population (millions)*
2012 2030 MID CENTURY
GAIN 2012 -MID CENTURY
SOUTH AFRICA
50 54 56 +6
TANZANIA
47 81 138 +91
NIGERIA 166 257 389 +223* UN Projections 2012
YEAR GLOBAL TRANSITION YEAR SOUTH AFRICA TRANSITION
1771 Industrial Revolution 1829 Start of Age of Steam &
Rail
1875 Start of Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering
1908 Start of Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production
1905 Mining Economy + Union of South Africa
1930 Resource Based Manuf. 1960 Republic of South Africa1971 Age of Information &
Telecommunications1971 Resource Based Services
Economy
2013 Midpoint of Age of Information & Telecp
1994 Democratic Elections
2020 Era of Turbulence 2020 A Perfect Storm ?
2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?
2030 An African Knowledge & Finance Capital ?
MID CENTURY
Midpoint of Age of Biotech and Renewable Energy?
2050 A Wealthy African Region ?
THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR 2030
• Additional 40 000 MW electricity required by 2030, at least 50% ( 20 000 MW) to come from Renewable Energy (RE)
• PGDS indicates 5,000 of that in KZN: sugar industry and timber industry has put 2000MW on the table
• Accelerate IPP (Independent Power Producer) procurement
• Durban Port Capacity from 3 to 20 million containers per annum by 2040 & expanded Richards Bay coal
export
• Peak Greenhouse Gas emissions by 2025
• Carbon Pricing Mechanisms to drive energy efficiency , economy-wide carbon price by 2030
• Zero Emission Building Standards by 2030
• Southern Africa Intra Regional trade to increase from 7 % to 25% by 2030
• SA Trade with regional neighbours to increase from 15% to 30%
If the SADC were to follow the Brazilian model over the next 20
years, with 60 percent of petrol being derived from ethanol and all growth in demand captured by ethanol….
• it would require the construction of about 120 mills that have the
capacity to produce 320 000 tons sugar per annum, create 1,8 million new direct jobs, and at least as many indirect jobs.
• The associated power generation would be equal to Medupi and Kusile
combined, which equates to approximately 9 500 MW.• For South Africa, it would provide between 13 and 25 percent of the
required carbon footprint reduction needed to meet the target
which the country committed to during COP 15 (Copenhagen, 2009).
• Large scale ethanol production requires a regional ethanol regime. Some 70 percent of the market for ethanol lies in South Africa, with the bulk of the production potential lying within other SADC countries such as Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Angola
KWADUKUZA IN TRANSITION
Corridor Transition
Period
World Transition Transport Driver Urban Response
1.Birth
1680 – 1840
Ox Wagon & Horse Kraal, Farm, Garrison Town
2. Urbanisation
1860 -1940
Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering
Hard Road & Railway Line
Factory & Traditional Villages & High Streets
3. City Integration
1940 – 1980
Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production
Commuter Rail / Bus Corridor Industrialisation
Satellite Towns & North Coast Corridor Emergence
4. Metro Sprawl
1980 – 2020
Age of Information & Telecommunications
Motor Corridor, Mini Bus Taxi, Airport & Tradeport
North Coast Corridor Fragmentation
5. Metro Compaction
2020 – 2030
Era of Turbulence Bus Rapid Transit, New Trains, Smart Transport Systems
Corridor Regeneration
6. Africanisation
2030 - 2040
Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?
Fast Rail, Smart Vehicles
Off Grid Satellite Towns
7. Regionalism
2040 +
Midpoint of Age of Biotech and Renewable Energy?
Walking & Cycling Urban Villages
DRIVERS
1. Cross border inter-governmental collaboration2. Compact settlement, growth management and public
transport3. Capacity building and awareness raising 4. Climate change adaptation5. Green building, green development and energy
efficiency6. Inclusive Growth and Green Job Creation7. Monitoring, Evaluation and Enforcement 8. Municipal capacity for effective planning9. Quality of life, resource security and access to services 10. Renewable Energy, Biofuel, Energy Cogeneration and
Green Industry11. Rural Development and Sustainable Agriculture
SARVA Map indicating minimum likely Climatic Changes for the period 2070-2100
• The mean annual temperature for KwaDukuza is projected to increase
between 1.7 and 2.7°C by 2060’s and 3.0 to 4.5°C by the 2090’s. • This warming is expected to be similar
throughout the year, although it will be more pronounced inland compared to the coastal regions.
• The number of “hot” days and nights will also continue to increase
• Dryer soils • Water availability • Flooding • Reduced • Heat stress • Pest and disease • Extreme events • Water quality - Changes in the frequency of
intense rainfall events, particularly following periods of dry weather, could contribute to increased nutrient runoff from agricultural land, which may affect local water quality. As well as harming biodiversity and ecosystems, this may affect the quality of water abstracted downstream.
KZN GREEN ECONOMY STRATEGY
• by 2025, KwaZulu- Natal will be a province where the economy provides ‘green’ economic growth.
• there is only one economy – the green economy, which means that the current economy must be re-orientated to become the green economy.
• become increasingly competitive and resilient, by:
• Increasing resource use efficiency
• Increasing the supply of renewable energy;
• Securing the supply of ecosystem services from the province’s natural assets; and
• Reducing environmental and climate related risks; and in so doing
• Create sustainable jobs for local people;
• Reduce poverty; and
• Address social equity throughout all regions of the province.
Participlan Exercise: what are the key low emission and development outcome possibilities and uncertainties for
KwaDukuza 2030?
Driver Impact Uncertainty Impact x Uncertainty
Ranking
Monitoring, regulation & evaluation (later added: incentives)
12 8 76 2
Educations 11 1 11 9Planning 4 4 16 8Quality of life 4 1 4 14Reduced use of fossil fuels 6 3 18 6
Inter-departmental collaboration
1 1 1 15
Public transport 6 3 18 6Sustainable development 6 5 30 4
Tourism 5 1 5 13Population growth 1 0 1 15Compact, dense city 9 1 9 10Green economy 11 2 22 5Mindset change 16 13 208 1Health 7 0 7 11Natural resource scarcity 9 6 54 3
Green buildings and development
6 0 6 12
42
Umuzi wengce
bo (House
of Wealth)
Umuzi Wobubh
a(House
of Poverty)
Umuzi Wenxushunxushu (House
of conflict)
Positive Shared Mindset towards Low Carbon Actions
Great monitoring, regulation & incentives
Bad monitoring, regulation & incentives
Negative Fragmented Mindset towards Low Carbon Actions
KWADUKUZA 2030 LEDS SCENARIOS
43
Umuzi wengce
bo (House
of Wealth)
Umuzi Wobubh
a(House
of Poverty)
Umuzi Wenxushunxushu (House
of conflict)
Positive Shared Mindset towards Low Carbon Actions
Great monitoring, regulation & incentives
Bad monitoring, regulation & incentives
Negative Fragmented Mindset towards Low Carbon Actions
• Collective Thinking & Partnership : Ubuntu
• indigenous knowledge systems whilst Embracing green technology
• Effective Growth Management
• Green Economy • Public Transport • Innovation • Biodiversity
• “Don’t give a damn” attitude
• arrogance• Weak leadership• Corruption• Mired in legal disputes • No concern for future
generations• Rigid in beliefs• illegal activities• Government /
Business / Community tensions
• Selfish, self-centered, pessimistic, careless, greedy values
• lack of accountability & responsibility,
• destructive non-compliant, reckless behaviour
• Chaotic Unplanned Development
• Old Economy • Motor Car is King
•
• Parallel world- good institutional set-up but lack of action
• Talk Shop • Inequality Remains • Non Compliant 20 %
cause 80% of the Problem
• Technically resourceful/efficient
KWADUKUZA 2030 SCENARIOS
15:15 – 15:45Revisiting the Four 2030 Scenarios: An Integrated Perspective
Shahid Solomon, Novation 2050
15:45 – 16:30Articulating the 2030 LEDS Vision and Agreeing Indicators of Success
Group Work
16:30 – 17:00Closing remarks and summary
Shahid Solomon, Novation 2050
UMUZI WENGCEBO VISION GROUPS
1. How will we be working together?• Local Partnerships • Regional Partnerships • Capacity building and awareness • Monitoring, Evaluation and Enforcement • Municipal capacity for effective planning
2. How will Kwadukuza look, feel and function?• Compact settlement, growth management and public transport• Green building, green development and energy efficiency• Quality of life, resource security and access to services
3. How will the economy be generating growth and jobs?• Inclusive Growth and Green Job Creation• Renewable Energy, Biofuel, Energy Cogeneration and Green
Industry
4. What will have happened to our natural resources? • Climate change adaptation
• Rural Development and Sustainable Agriculture
Day Two Back-casting: what milestones need to be achieved by 2020 in order to be on track to the 2030 Vision?
TeaParticiplan: what are the tough choices that need to be made in the next 6 months – two years in order to achieve the 2020 milestones?Proposal : Four 2020 Tough Choice Scenarios
LunchPlotting a Trajectory from 2013 to 2020 and 2030 to Achieve the Vision Scenario: The KwaDukuza Success Story as we want it to be written
TeaWhat levers (policy, regulations, partnerships, IGR mechanisms, funding sources) are available / can be put in place to deliver on the best 2020 choice scenario? What are reasonable time frames to get these levers in place?Key Next Steps and Responsibilities
THANK YOU