Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 1 Future of Repositories Workshop Kuopio 2 Steve O’Connor CEO...

Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004

1

Future of RepositoriesWorkshop

Kuopio 2

Steve O’Connor

CEO

CAVAL Collaborative Solutions

Melbourne, Australia

Scenario Planning Workshop CAVAL Collaborative Solutions

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LAWS OF UNCERTAINTY

• Laws and rules regulate behaviour and therefore reduce uncertainty

• We can act therefore more confidently and surely

• Laws are very structured and codified

• Nothing is more certain!!


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Future Thinking

What it is not…Strategic planning…Incremental planning

How not to change …Cling to present views of ‘our’ world… Not being able to conceive of other ways

of performing


4


5

The Future is…

• About sustainability

• About relevance

• About appropriateness

• About affordability

• About deliverability

• About minimising risk without being risk adverse


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“There are an infinite number of stories about the future; our purpose is to tell those that

matter”

Lawrence Wilkinson


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Tunnel Vision

• Light at the end of the tunnel• Vision gets narrower• Open it up ?• Think ‘outside the box’• “..to live is to change and to be perfect is to change often” Cardinal Newman

• There are no sacred cows !


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Weekend scenario


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10


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Growth of Digital…..

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Mix of media delivery

Web

Digital

Print


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Growth of Digital….

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Mix of Media delivery

Web

Digital

Print


14

Growth of Digital….

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Mix ofMedia Delivery

Web

Digital

Print


15


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Some thoughts ?What is going to be the operating environment for Repositories in 3 years?

What will the user see?

What are the implications for Repositories?

Published Output HeldPercentage of Australian holdings of English language monographs

published overseas 1975-1995

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

% h

eld


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Why… Future of our Libraries

• Enormous growth and use (value?) of consortia

• Pressure on libraries to achieve unit economies• Political impacts to deliver• Libraries on different turfs, similar game !


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Shift from Cooperation to Collaboration

• Strong inter-lending traditions

• ‘Big’ shared with ‘Smaller’

• Random collecting achieved

better coverage

• No reliance on central agency

• International possibilities

• More Futures than one !


21

Acquisitions and withdrawals

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

95 96 97 98 99 20 01

Monos

Withdrawals


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1. Professional Publishing and Information Universe

7,982

6,850

6,143

4,275

4,229

4,220

3,555

1,730

1,377

1,119

880

649

293

Reed Elsevier

Thomson

Pearson

VNU

McGraw-Hill

Reuters

Wolters Kluwer

Scholastic

Dow Jones

UBM

Springer

John Wiley

Taylor & Francis

(a)

STM

Legal & Tax

Financial

B2B

Education

Media/Marketing

Other

Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090(a)(a) Combined KAP/Springer entity.Combined KAP/Springer entity.

Total 2002 Sales (€ in m)Total 2002 Sales (€ in m)


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Shared profiling 1

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5

Subjects

Library One

Shared profiling 2

Percent Collect

ed

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5

Subjects

A Three-Library Shared Profile


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VDX


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Infrastructure Relationships - Levels of Interoperability to Information Access

Levels of Interoperability

Low

Hig

h

Local Model:highly

centralised,locally acquiredand managed

resources

Consortium Model:selective access to

distributed resources

NationalModel:

linked accessto widely

distributedresources

Acce

ss C

ap

acity t

o I

nfo

rma

tio

n A

sse

ts

Low High


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Overlapping Consortia

RegionalState

Local


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Culture Politics

FinanceTechnology

Structure


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Economic Technological

SocialPolitical

E X E R C I S E


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Emerging Trends in the BroaderEnvironment


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Economic Technological

SocialPolitical


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Service Cycle Model

DiscoveryTools/

Protocols

PaymentSystems

InformationRepositories

IntellectualProperty

Management

AuthenticationAuthorisation

CustomerInterface

Portals/User Profiles

DirectoryServices

ServiceDescriptions

InformationDescription(Metadata)

TransmissionSystems


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Factors


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Factors with guides


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Factors


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Matrix


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40


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Brief ScenarioConstruction


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INSERT BINOCULARS


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Aims of process

By involving you and your staffs By offering not one future but a number By empowering you and your colleagues as Users• TO PRODUCE A NEW ‘IFLA REPOSITORY’

FUTURE … THREE YEARS HENCE


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YOUR INPUT• What information service do you want to

be provided three years hence ?

• What do you want as a User for

your Repository’s resources and services?


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No answers, only possibilities

• Three Scenarios from each Group• Creative Name for each Scenario for eg.

‘From Here to Eternity’• One sentence description of each Scenario• Point characteristics for each Scenario inc.

community to serve, focus of delivery

• Have fun!


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URL• Digital Delivery 24/7 directly to end-user• Information for free (supported or minimal

charges)• Performance and retention public agreements • Strong local support of regional repositories in

close partnerships• Repositories focusing on existing strengths with

multilingual approaches• Virtual Union catalogue linking repository

catalogues• Develop local support to bridge into URL• International focal points


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How to bring scenarios into existence

• What would have to take place ?

• What kind of influence and attitude change would have to occur ?

• What kind of service would exist in 3 years time?

• Time to do your strategic planning…….


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What have we learnt ?

• The Future isn’t what it used to be

• The Future can be what you want it to be

• Techniques for developing Scenarios– Small ( within one of your repositories)– Large ( Global Generic level)

What will the future labels be for assessment and publishing?

My onlyparting

words !!!

Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 1 Future of Repositories Workshop Kuopio 2 Steve O’Connor CEO...

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