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Transcript of Kungsleden presents Financial statement 2012
Welcome to Kungsleden’s Financial Statement
and strategy presentation
15 February 2013
Thomas Erséus, Chief Executive
Anders Kvist, Deputy Chief Executive
Today’s agenda
1. The lettings and property market
2. The fourth quarter, operations and figures
3. Results for the full year 2012
4. Financial position
5. An update on tax
6. Strategic review and new strategy
7. Value creation in property management
8. Growth and concentration
9. Financial targets
10.Summary
Contents| 2
Q4—a turning-point, strategically and financially
■ Kungsleden has been obstructed by an impending tax threat for some
time
■ The effects of a fixed interest rate have impelled a defensive attitude
■ The Hemsö transaction takes care of a worst-case scenario for tax, and
the company is well positioned with financial flexibility
■ This transaction is part of implementing Kungsleden’s new strategy
■ The management of wholly owned properties has been a strong value
creator for Kungsleden over time
■ After seven years as Chief Executive, this is a good time to leave
■ Cost savings program initiated
■ The Board is proposing a dividend of SEK 1.00 per share
■ Very good prospects for future value creation
Q4—a turning-point| 3
1. The lettings and property market
Lettings market remains stable
■ Employment continues to grow in major city regions
■ A segmented office market, with strong demand in good locations
■ Rent levels for commercial properties in major city regions outside CBDs are stable
■ Big spread in required yields in major city regions outside CBDs
■ Unchanged vacancy levels and variations between sub-markets
Source: Newsec
| 5 The lettings and property market
Continued good lettings for Kungsleden in the quarter
■ Some new lease contracts with
annual rent exceeding SEK 9
m:
– The Port of Gävle
– Västmanland County
Council
– Cap Gemini, Västerås
– RB Glas & Plast, Partille
| 6 The lettings and property market
Increased new lettings for 2012 and continued
stability ■ New lettings of SEK 80 m* for
the full year
■ Västerås is one of our
expansive markets. SEK 17 m
of new lettings
■ Net lettings of SEK 15 m** for
the full year
■ Full-year economic occupancy
level 89.3 (89.2)%
■ Remaining average contract
term of 4.9 years
* New lettings are annual rents for contracts signed in Jan-Dec 2012
** Net lettings are signed contracts less signed terminations
| 7 The lettings and property market
Transaction volume up from SEK 85 bn to 106 bn*
| 8 The lettings and property market
0
35
70
105
140
175
210
245
280
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Transaction volume per segment - Sweden
Transactions ≥ 100 MSEK
Off ice Residential
Retail Logistics, warehouses and industrial
Nursery homes Others (for example hotel, soil, health care and school)
Nr of transactions Source: Newsec
BSEK Nr of transactions
Strong closing quarter for transactions in Sweden
■ Transaction volumes in Q4 were SEK 42 bn—the highest volume
since Q3 2008
■ Total transaction volumes for December were SEK 30 bn
■ Highly capitalised institutions and pension funds behind most
transactions on the buy and sell sides
■ Office market represented 40% of total volumes in 2012
■ Kungsleden was the biggest single seller in 2012 with its sale of
50:50 joint owned Hemsö
| 9 The lettings and property market
2. The fourth quarter, operations and figures
Kungsleden’s portfolio optimisation in the quarter
| 11
■ 15 properties were sold for SEK 552 m
■ These sales were at a property yield of 6.6%
■ The sold properties were located in Greater Stockholm, central and
southern Sweden.
■ A portfolio of 9 properties, sold for SEK 380 m, was the single
largest property sale
■ All sales were made at around book value
■ 11 properties were purchased for approx. SEK 1,549 m from Hemsö
– Total rental value of SEK 163 m, 143,000 sq.m. leasable area
– Remaining contract term 8 years
■ Earnings capacity of the remaining portfolio: 8%
The fourth quarter, operations and figures
Better positioning after the sale of Hemsö
■ Kungsleden sold its holdings in Hemsö after 11 years’ positive
progress, which has created substantial shareholder value over time
■ Total purchase price of SEK 3,320 m
– Price of the shares was SEK 1,820 m
– Repayment of shareholder loan was SEK 1,500 m
■ After the share sale, loan repayment and purchase of 11 properties
– liquidity strengthened by SEK 1,750 m
– Increased borrowing capacity, utilised by arranging a new SEK 1
bn loan over three years
■ The sale is part of the implementation of Kungsleden’s new strategy,
on wholly owned properties, and will contribute to increased returns
by reallocating funds
| 12 The fourth quarter, operations and figures
The quarter in brief
■ Net sales and gross profit decreased by 10% and 8% to SEK 494 m
and SEK 309 m respectively compared to Q4 2011, due to a smaller
property portfolio
■ Profit before tax was SEK 677 (348) m
■ Profit after tax was SEK 923 (303) m, or SEK 6.80 (2.20) per share.
The profit increase is sourced from the sale of Hemsö
■ Cash flow from operating activities was SEK 66 (136) m
■ Profit for calculating dividends for the fourth quarter was SEK 1,732
(241) m, or SEK 12.70 (1.70) per share
| 13 The fourth quarter, operations and figures
Kungsleden has a new principal owner
■ Welandson Gösta and companies 13.1
■ Länsförsäkringar fonder 3.2
■ Norges Bank Investment Management 2.9
■ Olle Florén and companies 2.5
■ Danske Invest fonder (Sweden) 2.0
■ BlackRock fonder (USA) 1.6
■ AP4 1.4
■ AP2 1.2
■ Swedbank Robur fonder 1.2
■ Avanza Pension Försäkring AB 1.0
30.1
Source: SIS Ägarservice, 31 December 2012
| 14 The fourth quarter, operations and figures
3. Results for the full year 2012
Income Statement SEK m
2012
Jan-Dec
2011
Jan-Dec Δ, %
Rental revenues 1,840 1,759
Sales revenues, modular buildings 270 288
Net sales 2,110 2,047 3
Property costs -533 -512
Production costs, modules -249 -258
Gross profit 1,328 1,277 4
Trading net 16 56
Sales and administration costs -257 -244
Profit/loss from participations in Hemsö 794 413 92
Net financial items -586 -559
Unrealised value changes, properties -60 241
Unrealised value changes, financial instruments -70 -491
Profit before tax 1,165 693 68
Tax -813 -55
Net profit for the year 352 638 -45
| 16
The large positive item
is from the sale of
Hemsö
Sales and gross profit
increased by 3 and 4%
respectively due to a
larger property portfolio
and milder start to the
winter
Results for the full year 2012
Substantial values realised through the sale of
Hemsö 2012 2011
SEK m Jan-Dec Jan-Dec
Gross profit 1,328 1,277
Sales and administration costs -257 -244
Net financial items -586 -559
Profit from property management 485 474
Realised items
Trading net on sale 16 56
Realised value changes, properties 129 65
Deduction for deferred tax on sale -20 -7
Sale of Hemsö 1,507 -
Realised value changes, financial instruments -81 -66
Realised items 1,551 48
Profit for calculating dividends from Hemsö 223 207
Taxes payable -342 -26
Profit for calculating dividends 1,917 703
| 17 Results for the full year 2012
Income Statement, wholly owned properties
SEK m
2012
Jan-Dec
2011
Jan-Dec Δ, %
Rental revenues 1,583 1,515 4
Property costs -489 -463
Gross profit 1,094 1,052 4
Trading net 16 56
Sales and administration costs -194 -184
Net financial items -528 -507
Unrealised value changes, properties 0 301
Unrealised value changes, financial
instruments -55 -380
Profit before tax 333 338 -1
Tax 182 -70
Net profit for the year 515 268 92
| 18 Results for the full year 2012
Income Statement, Nordic Modular
SEK m
2012
Jan-Dec
2011
Jan-Dec Δ, %
Rental revenue, modules 257 244
Sales revenue, modules 270 288
Net sales 527 532 -1
Property costs -44 -49
Production costs, modules -249 -258
Gross profit 234 225 4
Trading net 0 0
Sales and administration costs -63 -60
Net financial items -58 -58
Unrealised value changes, properties -60 -60
Unrealised value changes, financial instruments -5 -42
Profit before tax 48 5 860
Tax -13 -1
Net profit for the year 35 4 775
| 19 Results for the full year 2012
Income Statement, Hemsö
SEK m
2012
Jan-Dec
2011
Jan-Dec Δ, %
Profit/loss from participations, Hemsö 794 413 92
Net financial items 0 6
Unrealised value changes, financial
instruments -10 -69
Profit before tax 784 350 124
Tax 3 16
Net profit for the year 787 366 115
| 20 Results for the full year 2012
4. Financial position
Financial position—pro forma after Hemsö
transaction
| 22 Financial position
2012 2011
SEK m 31 Dec 31 Dec
ASSETS According to Interim
Report Pro forma after
Hemsö transaction
Properties 15,777 15,777
Other fixed assets 666 666
Receivable from AP3 3,363 -
Other current assets 373 373
Cash and bank balances 721 3,549
Total assets 20,900 20,365
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Equity 7,726 7,726
Interest-bearing liabilities 9,704 10,720
Derivatives 1,125 1,125
Other non interest-bearing liabilities 2,345 794
Total equity and liabilities 20,900 20,365
Maturity structure, credits
As of 31 December 2012
Utilised
credits,
SEK m
Un-utilised
credits, SEK
m
Total credits,
SEK m
2013 667 260 927
2014 1,459 1,459
2015 5,600 900 6,500
2016 1,978 1,978
Total 9,704 1,160 10,864
Average conversion term, years 2.3 2.2
| 23 Financial position
Maturity structure, fixed interest periods
As of 31 December 2012
Loans,
SEK m
Interest
deriv-
atives,
SEK m
Ave.
interest,
derivatives,
%
Ave. interest,
loans and
derivatives, years
Average fixed
interest term,
years
2013 9,704
2014 800 3.9
2015 1,400 4.2
2016 500 3.9
2017 500 4.1
2018 3,650 4.2
2019 800 3.5
2020 800 3.7
2021 400 3.8
2022 500 3.8
Total 9,704 9,350 6.8 6.8 5.1
Market valuation of loans and
derivatives 1,121
Total 10,825
| 24 Financial position
5. An update on tax
An update on tax proceedings
■ As previously reported, in November 2012, the Swedish Tax Agency
reported its decision to tax Kungsleden for capital gains on transfers or
participations in partnerships for the tax year 2007
■ As previously reported, the estimated profit effect would be SEK 1,380
m and the estimated liquidity effect would be SEK 1,360 m
■ In December 2012, the Swedish Tax Agency decided to make a
secondary claim (tax evasion) on the same transaction if the Agency’s
primary claim was unsuccessful
■ Given a negative outcome in tax evasion proceedings, the estimated
profit and liquidity effect would be approx. SEK 500 m lower than the
above amounts
■ The tax evasion proceedings will be conducted in parallel with
consideration of the primary claim
| 26 An update on tax
Estimate of maximum tax effects
SEK m Effect on equity Liquidity effect
Provision, Q2 2009 325 0
Provision, Q2 2012 725 260
Deposited in anticipation of ruling - -100
Total provisioned tax cases 1,050 160
Un-provisioned tax cases 2,930 2,920
Deposited in anticipation of ruling - -160
Total 3,980* 2,920
An update on tax | 27
* Please refer to quarterly report for explanation for change on the third quarter
6. Strategic review and new strategy
Strategic review
■ Kungsleden has been working on a strategic review for some time
■ This review has been driven by fundamental changes on the
property market, and the desire to concentrate its business
■ The new strategy is designed to clarify how Kungsleden creates
lasting value for shareholders
■ Managing wholly owned properties has been a strong value creator
for Kungsleden over time
■ Kungsleden is now concentrating on this, taking a new direction,
focusing on wholly owned properties on growth markets in Sweden
■ Value creation is achieved by satisfying customers’ needs for
premises, managing and enhancing properties, and optimising the
company’s property portfolio
Strategic review and new strategy | 29
A strategy that puts value creation in focus
Strategic review and new strategy | 30
Kungsleden will create value by satisfying customers’ needs for premises,
managing and enhancing properties and optimising the company’s
property portfolio
Satisfying customers’ need for premises
■ Providing premises where customers can operate and develop
■ Creating strong customer relationships through responsiveness, being flexible and having short
decision-paths
Managing and enhancing properties
■ Actively manage and enhance properties to increase stable cash flows, and thus the value of the
property portfolio
■ Attract good tenants and endeavour to secure long lease contracts, high occupancy levels and a
balanced cost level
Optimise the property portfolio
■ With good market knowledge and strong relationships with participants on the market, identify and
exploit the opportunities for purchases and sales to increase risk-adjusted returns
Strategic review and new strategy | 31
A platform for creating value for shareholders, customers, employees and wider society is a
strong corporate culture where people enjoy their work, develop and deliver.
Focusing geographically and by segment
Annual growth (%), total pay
Kungsleden will own, manage and enhance
properties that generate high risk-adjusted returns in
the warehouse/industrial, office and retail segments
in Greater Stockholm, the lake Mälaren region,
south western Sweden, and growth locations in
northern Sweden
■ One key precondition for value creation is where in
Sweden the growth is located
■ By focusing on three property types, Kungsleden will
increase its knowledge of customer needs and market
conditions in these segments, which will bring stronger
customer relationships, improved management and
enhancement of properties, and thus increase the value
of the property portfolio
Strategic review and new strategy | 32
The current portfolio, wholly owned properties
Segment No. of properties
Area, 000
sq.m.
Book value, SEK m
Operating net, SEK m
Property yield, %
Occupancy level, %
Average contract term,
yr.
Industrial/warehouse 116 1,197 6,058 511 8.4 91.0 5.3
Office 88 672 5,579 424 7.6 90.2 4.3
Retail 56 266 2,071 158 7.6 94.0 4.6
Other commercial 18 76 560 37 6.7 91.4 6.2
Total 278 2,211 14,268 1,130 7.9 91.1 4.9
Property portfolio as of 31 December 2012
Strategic review and new strategy | 33
Focus on locations outside CBDs offers attractive
property yields
Strategic review and new strategy | 34
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
%
Source: Newsec
Yields - offices in prime locations
Office Stockholm CBDOffice Göteborg PrimeOffice Malmö Prime
Interval: 4.0 - 7.0%
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
200
6
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
201
2E
%
Source: Newsec
Yields - offices in secondary locations
Office Rest of SwedenOffice Rest of Greater StockholmOffice Other Major Cities
Interval: 5.75 - 8.5%
Stable rents in locations outside CBDs
Strategic review and new strategy| 35
700
800
900
1 000
1 100
1 200
1 300
1 400
1 500
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
E
SEK/sqm
Source: Newsec
Market rent - offices in secondary locations
Other Major Cities
Rest of Greater Stockholm
Interval: 1 100-1 400 SEK/sqm
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
E
SEK/sqm
Source: Newsec
Market rent - offices in Stockholm CBD
Stockholm CBD
Interval: 3 500- 5 000 SEK/sqm
High property yields outside CBDs create a good
cushion
04
05
05
06
06
07
07
08
08
09
09
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
%
Stockholm CBD
Övriga Sverige
Source: Newsec
Strategic review and new strategy| 36
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
%
Source: Newsec
Yields - offices in prime locations
Stockholm CBD Rest of Sweden
Combination of high total returns and low market
risk
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Property yield 7.65% 7.50% 7.35% 7.25% 7.20%
Rent growth 1.50% 2% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Industrial & Warehouse established industrial estate, rest of Sweden
Total returns, 2014-2017: 11%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Property yield 7% 6.75% 6.75% 6.50% 6.50%
Rent growth 1.50% 2% 2% 2.50% 2.50%
FMCG retail, rest of Sweden Total returns, 2014-2017: 10.3%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Property yield 4.50% 4.50% 4.70% 4.90% 5%
Rent growth 2% 3% 5% 7% 5%
Total returns, 2014-2017: 6.7%
Office, Stockhom CBD
Source: Newsec Strategic review and new strategy| 37
Yield spread expected to reduce Attractive pricing currently in secondary segments
Strategic review and new strategy| 38
1,50
2,50
3,50
4,50
5,50
6,50
7,50
8,50
9,50
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Yield intervals 2002-2012
Min
Max
2012E
*2007-2012 Source: Newsec
7. Value creation in property management
How will Kungsleden create growing cash flows?
Management efficiency
Customer care and lettings
Develop operating net
Growing cash flows
Enhance
Value creation in property management| 40
Strong value creation over time—operating net/sq.m. up
25% since 2007
Value creation in property management| 41
200
300
400
500
600
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Driftnetto per kvmOperating net per sq.m.
8. Growth and concentration
Growth and concentration
Annual growth (%), total pay
Kungsleden will own, manage and enhance
properties that generate high risk-adjusted returns in
the warehouse/industrial, office and retail segments
in Greater Stockholm, the lake Mälaren region,
south western Sweden, and growth locations in
northern Sweden
Growth and concentration | 43
Reinvestment after the Hemsö sale
Investment volume of approx. SEK 5-6 bn achievable through individual
and portfolio acquisitions in a time horizon of approx. 1-2 years
New strategy captures properties and sub-markets exhibiting sustainable
and fairly stable sales over time
There is still a good supply of properties that fit the new strategy
Kungsleden sees good investment opportunities on the market with
property yields of 7.0-8.5%
Growth and concentration 44
Some transactions completed on the market that fit
the new strategy
Office and warehouse portfolio of approx. 16,000 sq.m. in Märsta.
Transaction volume approx. SEK 120 m. Property yield approx. 7.75-8.0%
Office portfolio of approx. 45,000 sq.m. in Linköping, Norrköping, Västerås
and Växjö. Transaction volume approx. SEK 320 m. Property yield approx.
7.5-8.0%
Logistics property of approx. 50,000 sq.m. in western Sweden. Lease
contract approx. 7 years. Transaction volume approx. SEK 300 m. Property
yield approx. 7.25%
Logistics property of 10,000 sq.m. in Greater Stockholm. Transaction volume
approx. SEK 90 m. Lease contract 3-5 yr. Property yield approx. 7.5-7.75%
Two logistics properties totalling approx. 80,000 sq.m. in western Sweden.
Sale and leaseback with lease contracts of 15 yr. Transaction volume
approx. SEK 400 m. Property yield approx. 8.75%
Growth and concentration |45
Kungsleden is concentrating its property portfolio
Growth and concentration |46
2012 2015
The non-strategic property share of portfolio
value will fall from 10% to 5% or less over
three years
Strategic properties
Non-strategic properties
Sale of Nordic Modular—a matter of time
As part of Kungsleden’s focus on wholly owned properties, Nordic Modular
will be sold when there is an opportunity, and on reasonable terms
Kungsleden has owned Nordic Modular Group since January 2007
Return on equity has been very positive over time, and averaged over 20%
per yr.
The capital transfers from Nordic Modular received to date exceed the
capital Kungsleden has invested
Nordic Modular has a strong cash flow and is a positive contributor to
Kungsleden’s earnings
There is no hurry to sell Nordic Modular, with the plan being to sell in a few
years, given positive conditions
Growth and concentration |47
9. Financial targets
Financial targets and limits for 2013-2015
■ The overall target is to maximise cash flow growth within the
financial limits set to secure a strong balance sheet for the short and
long term:
– Liquidity contingency (see below)
– Loan to value ratio (our prudent estimate is 60% on new credit
facilities)
– Equity ratio (should be over 30%)
The most important restriction in the short term is our liquidity
contingency. Kungsleden will maintain cash and available credit
facilities corresponding to the worst-case outcome of tax
proceedings until their outcome is clear. The total is SEK 2.9 bn,
which will cost an estimated 1% per year.
Financial targets| 49
Investing cash flows
■ Reinvesting the funds freed up by the sale of Hemsö, and investing
the free cash flows generated by operations, is the financial base of
Kungsleden’s value creation. Scope to invest is limited by the
liquidity contingency that should be maintained and the share
dividend (redemption, buy-backs) the Board considers appropriate
■ Alternative usages for cash flows:
– Purchasing new properties within our strategy
– Enhancing (converting, extending and developing)
– Reinvesting in the current property portfolio
Financial targets | 50
Review of costs to save 10%
■ General review of central administrative costs
■ Identify opportunities for shared services centrally
■ Take management organisation from five regions to four
■ Charge properties with relevant costs for property operations in the
accounts, to produce clearer profit centres and achieve better
comparisons with other property companies
■ Target of reducing costs by a total of 10%
Cost saving| 51
Managing by objectives
■ Kungsleden will be managed towards:
– The final target for the whole group’s profit from property
management for 2015
– Phase targets for 2013 and 2014
■ The phase targets and final target will be expressed at
– segment level (Properties and Nordic Modular with individual
administrative costs allocated)
– net financial position at group level
– central costs
■ Profit for calculating dividends will no longer be a target
Financial targets| 52
Kungsleden’s required return
■ Over the long term, Kungsleden should generate a return on equity
exceeding the required return applied by the stock market on the
company’s share
■ The 15% return on equity target used to date would be difficult to
attain in current market conditions
■ In the short to medium term, in current circumstances, the stock
market’s required return on Kungsleden is expected to be not less
than 10-12%
■ Accordingly, Kungsleden’s investments and usage of shareholders’
funds overall must always at least satisfy this required return in
advance and post-costings
Financial targets| 53
New dividend policy from 2013 onwards
■ The dividend policy will be differentiated considering the need for
liquidity contingency resulting from tax proceedings:
– In the medium term, dividend payments of up to 50% of profit
from property management will be permitted, which also reflects
the practice of listed property companies
– As long as the outcome of tax proceedings remains unclear
(probably until year-end 2015), a lower share of profit from
property management will be paid out
Financial targets | 54
10. Summary
Good prospects for future value creation
■ Strict control of central administrative costs will generate operational
leverage as the asset base grows
■ Investment strategy focusing on high-yielding property segments
with very moderate risks
■ Cash flow back to pre-Hemsö levels within 18 – 24 months, even
with higher liquidity reserves. Profit from property management
restored within three years
■ As tax risks decline, liquidity reserves will be freed up for
reinvestment in new properties. Average interest rates to improve
with new property purchases
■ Strong and growing underlying earnings capacity based on strong
cash flow from property management, visible in the bottom line
when tax proceedings are concluded and interest hedging costs
have tapered off
Summary| 56
Questions