KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes · export shipments with “positive” long term outlook Weekly...
19
1| Page KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes Daniel O’Brien, Extension Agricultural Economist, Kansas State University For Radio Program to be aired 10:00-10:15 a.m., Friday, September 16, 2016 I. Grain Futures Closes, Changes & Carry on Thursday, September 15, 2016 Corn Futures Soybean Futures Ethanol Futures Month Close Change Carry/mo Month Close Change Carry/mo Month Close Change Carry/mo Dec 16 $3.30 $0.0175 --- Nov 16 $ 9.50 ½ $0.0775 --- Oct 16 $1.497 $0.008 --- Mar 17 $3.40 ¼ $0.0225 $0.03 417 Jan 17 $ 9.55 ¾ $0.0775 $0.02 625 Nov 16 $1.432 $0.011 No Carry May 17 $3.47 $0.03 $0.03 375 Mar 17 $ 9.58 ¾ $0.0775 $0.01 50 Dec 16 $1.389 $0.010 No Carry July 17 $3.54 $0.025 $0.03 50 May 17 $ 9.64 ½ $0.07 $0.02 875 Jan 17 $1.358 $0.010 No Carry Sept 17 $3.60 ¾ $0.025 $0.03 375 July 17 $ 9.70 $0.0675 $0.02 75 Feb 17 $1.363 $0.007 $0.005 Dec 17 $3.70 ¾ $0.025 $0.03 333 Aug 17 $ 9.67 $0.065 No carry Mar 17 $1.384 $0.007 $0.019 Mar 18 $3.81 $0.03 $0.03 417 Sept 17 $ 9.51 ¼ $0.07 No carry Apr 17 $1.410 $0.007 $0.016 May 18 $3.86 ¾ $0.06 $0.02 875 Nov 17 $ 9.39 $0.0825 No carry May 17 $1.417 $0.007 $0.007 Kansas HRW Wheat Futures Chicago Wheat Futures MGEX Spring Wheat Futures Month Close Change Carry/mo Month Close Change Carry/mo Month Close Change Carry/mo Dec 16 $4.16 $0.0225 --- Dec 16 $ 3.99 ½ $0.035 --- Dec 16 $4.91 ¼ $0.0175 --- Mar 17 $4.32 $0.025 $0.08 Mar 17 $ 4.22 ¼ $0.0225 $0.07 583 Mar 17 $5.01 ¾ $0.0175 $0.03 50 May 17 $4.42 ½ $0.025 $0.05 25 May 17 $ 4.37 $0.025 $0.07 375 May 17 $5.10 ¾ $0.0175 $0.03 July 17 $4.53 $0.02 $0.05 25 July 17 $ 4.48 ¼ $0.015 $0.05 625 July 17 $5.19 ¾ $0.0175 $0.03 Sept 17 $4.68 $0.02 $0.07 50 Sept 17 $ 4.64 $0.0025 $0.07 875 Sept 17 $5.29 ¾ $0.02 $0.05 Dec 17 $4.89 ¾ $0.015 $0.07 25 Dec 17 $ 4.84 ½ $0.005 $0.08 333 Dec 17 $5.44 ½ $0.0225 $0.04 917 Mar 18 $5.00 ½ $0.0175 $0.03 583 Mar 18 $ 4.99 $0.015 $0.04 833 Mar 18 $5.59 $0.04 917 May 18 $5.04 ½ $0.025 $0.02 May 18 $ 5.06 ¼ $0.015 $0.03 625 May 18
Transcript of KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes · export shipments with “positive” long term outlook Weekly...
1 | P a g e
KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes
Daniel O’Brien, Extension Agricultural Economist, Kansas State University
For Radio Program to be aired 10:00-10:15 a.m., Friday, September 16, 2016
I. Grain Futures Closes, Changes & Carry on Thursday, September 15, 2016
Corn Futures Soybean Futures Ethanol Futures
Month Close Change Carry/mo Month Close Change Carry/mo Month Close Change Carry/mo
Dec 16 $3.30 $0.0175 --- Nov 16 $ 9.50 ½ $0.0775 --- Oct 16 $1.497 $0.008 ---
Mar 17 $3.40 ¼ $0.0225 $0.03417 Jan 17 $ 9.55 ¾ $0.0775 $0.02625 Nov 16 $1.432 $0.011 No Carry
May 17 $3.47 $0.03 $0.03375 Mar 17 $ 9.58 ¾ $0.0775 $0.0150 Dec 16 $1.389 $0.010 No Carry
July 17 $3.54 $0.025 $0.0350 May 17 $ 9.64 ½ $0.07 $0.02875 Jan 17 $1.358 $0.010 No Carry
Sept 17 $3.60 ¾ $0.025 $0.03375 July 17 $ 9.70 $0.0675 $0.0275 Feb 17 $1.363 $0.007 $0.005
Dec 17 $3.70 ¾ $0.025 $0.03333 Aug 17 $ 9.67 $0.065 No carry Mar 17 $1.384 $0.007 $0.019
Mar 18 $3.81 $0.03 $0.03417 Sept 17 $ 9.51 ¼ $0.07 No carry Apr 17 $1.410 $0.007 $0.016
May 18 $3.86 ¾ $0.06 $0.02875 Nov 17 $ 9.39 $0.0825 No carry May 17 $1.417 $0.007 $0.007
Kansas HRW Wheat Futures Chicago Wheat Futures MGEX Spring Wheat FuturesMonth Close Change Carry/mo Month Close Change Carry/mo Month Close Change Carry/mo
Dec 16 $4.16 $0.0225 --- Dec 16 $ 3.99 ½ $0.035 --- Dec 16 $4.91 ¼ $0.0175 ---
Mar 17 $4.32 $0.025 $0.08 Mar 17 $ 4.22 ¼ $0.0225 $0.07583 Mar 17 $5.01 ¾ $0.0175 $0.0350
May 17 $4.42 ½ $0.025 $0.0525 May 17 $ 4.37 $0.025 $0.07375 May 17 $5.10 ¾ $0.0175 $0.03
July 17 $4.53 $0.02 $0.0525 July 17 $ 4.48 ¼ $0.015 $0.05625 July 17 $5.19 ¾ $0.0175 $0.03
Sept 17 $4.68 $0.02 $0.0750 Sept 17 $ 4.64 $0.0025 $0.07875 Sept 17 $5.29 ¾ $0.02 $0.05
Dec 17 $4.89 ¾ $0.015 $0.0725 Dec 17 $ 4.84 ½ $0.005 $0.08333 Dec 17 $5.44 ½ $0.0225 $0.04917
Mar 18 $5.00 ½ $0.0175 $0.03583 Mar 18 $ 4.99 $0.015 $0.04833 Mar 18 $5.59 $0.04917
May 18 $5.04 ½ $0.025 $0.02 May 18 $ 5.06 ¼ $0.015 $0.03625 May 18
2 | P a g e
3 | P a g e
4 | P a g e
5 | P a g e
II. U.S. & World Drought Monitor, Moisture Accumulations & Forecasts (Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin)
6 | P a g e
7 | P a g e
8 | P a g e
III. Corn Market Information Weekly DEC 2016 Corn Futures
Key Corn & Grain Sorghum Supply‐Demand Factors: U.S. Corn Exports: “Positive” short term MY 2016/17 U.S. corn
export shipments with “positive” long term outlook Weekly Export Shipments week of 9/8/2016 for MY 2016/17 = 44.43 mb
vs 41.65 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s September 12th projn of 2.175 bb exports
Total shipments through 9/8/2016 for MY 2016/17 = 56.2 mb i.e., 2.6% of 2.175 bb USDA projn with 2.2% of MY complete (1.14/52 weeks)
Total sales (9/8/2016) for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 671 mb i.e., 30.85% of 2.175 bb USDA projn w. 2.2% of MY complete (1.14/52 weeks)
U.S. Grain Sorghum Exports: “Negative” short term MY 2015/16 Export Shipments & “neutral” long term
Weekly Export Shipments wk of 9/8/2016 for MY 2016/17 = 2.3 mb vs 4.87 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s September 12th projn of 250 mb exports
Total shipments through 9/8/2016 for MY 2016/17 = 2.4 mb i.e., 1.0% of 250 mb USDA projn with 2.2% of MY complete (1.14/52 weeks)
Total new sales (9/8/2016) for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 28.6 mb i.e., 11.4% of 250 mb USDA projn w. 2.2% of MY complete (1.14/52 weeks)
World & U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand Fundamentals Mktg Yr World % S/U U.S. % S/U U.S. $/bu 2007/08 16.5% S/U 12.8% S/U $4.20 /bu 2008/09 18.3% S/U 13.9% S/U $4.06 /bu 2009/10 17.2% S/U 13.1% S/U $3.55 /bu 2010/11 14.5% S/U 8.7% S/U $5.18 /bu 2011/12 14.8% S/U 7.9% S/U $6.22 /bu 2012/13 15.3% S/U 7.4% S/U $6.89 /bu 2013/14 18.6% S/U 9.2% S/U $4.46 /bu 2014/15USDA 21.2% S/U 12.6% S/U $3.70 /bu 2015/16USDA 21.8% S/U 12.5% S/U $3.60 /bu 13.601 bln bu crop 2016/17USDA 21.6% S/U 16.5% S/U $3.20 /bu 15.093 bln bu crop
U.S. Grain Sorghum Supply‐Demand Fundamentals 2014/15USDA 67.6 bu/acUS 4.0% S/U $4.03 /bu 433 mln bu crop
2015/16USDA 76.0 bu/acUS 6.0% S/U $3.30 /bu 597 mln bu crop 2016/17USDA 75.7 bu/acUS 11.7% S/U $3.05 /bu 488 mln bu crop
DEC 2016 Corn (Weekly): $3.30 on Th., Sept. 15, 2016
Monthly Corn Futures Continuation
Chart
DEC 2016 Corn: $3.30 on Th., Sept. 15, 2016
$3.30$3.46$3.18$3.09
9 | P a g e
10 | P a g e
11 | P a g e
12 | P a g e
IV. Wheat Market Outlook Weekly DEC 2016 HRW Futures
Monthly Kansas HRW Wheat eFutures
Key Wheat Supply‐Demand Factors:
U.S. All Wheat Exports: “Positive” Short Term Export Shipments with “positive” long run export prospects in “new crop” MY 2016/17 (Started 6/1/2016)
– Weekly Export Shipments wk of 9/8/2016 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 26.0 mb vs 18.2 mb /wk needed to meet USDA’s September 12th projn of 950 mb exports
– Total shipments through 9/8/2016 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 278.0 mb i.e., 29.3% of 950 mb USDA projn with 28.8% of MY complete (15/52 weeks)
– Total shipments + new sales 8/25/2016 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 474.3 mb i.e., 49.9% of 950 mb USDA projn with 28.8% of MY complete (15/52 weeks)
U.S. HRW Wheat Exports: “Positive” Short Term Export Shipments with “positive” long run export prospects in “new crop” MY 2016/17 (Started 6/1/2016)
– Weekly HRW Export Shipments wk of 9/8/2016 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 8.8 mb vs 6.8 mb /wk needed to meet USDA’s September 12th projn of 370 mb exports
– Total HRW shipments through 9/8/2016 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 117.2 mb i.e., 31.6% of 370 mb USDA projn with 28.8% of MY complete (15/52 weeks)
– Total HRW shipments + new sales 8/25/2016 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 197.7 mb i.e., 53.4% of 370 mb USDA projn with 28.8% of MY complete (15/52 weeks)
“Negative” World & U.S. Wheat S/D Fundamentals Mktg Yr World % S/U U.S. % S/U U.S. $/bu
2007/08 20.8% S/U 13.2% S/U $6.48 /bu 1,263 mb exports
2008/09 26.5% S/U 28.7% S/U $6.78 /bu 1,015 mb exports
2009/10 31.2% S/U 48.6% S/U $4.87 /bu 879 mb exports
2010/11 30.4% S/U 36.4% S/U $5.70 /bu 1,291 mb exports
2011/12 28.6% S/U 33.4% S/U $7.24 /bu 1,051 mb exports
2012/13 25.7% S/U 29.9% S/U $7.77 /bu 1,012 mb exports
2013/14 28.1% S/U 24.2% S/U $6.87 /bu 1,176 mb exports
2014/15 30.6% S/U 37.3% S/U $5.99/bu 864 mb exports
2015/16USDA 33.9% S/U 50.7% S/U $4.89 /bu 775 mb exports
2016/17USDA 33.8% S/U 47.5% S/U $3.60 /bu 950 mb exports
DEC 2016 KC Wheat (Weekly) $4.16 on Th., Sept. 15, 2016
DEC 2016 KC Wheat$4.16 on Th., Sept. 15, 2016
$4.16$3.97$4.71
Monthly KS HRW Wheat
Futures Continuation
Chart
13 | P a g e
14 | P a g e
15 | P a g e
16 | P a g e
V. Soybean Market Outlook Weekly NOVEMBER 2016 Soybean Futures
Monthly Soybean eFutures
Weekly NOV 2016 Soybeans $9.50 ½ on Th., Sept. 15, 2016
Key Soybean Supply‐Demand Issues:
U.S. Soybean Exports: “neutral‐negative” Short Run Export Shipments in MY 2015/16 and “positive” Forward Sales o Export Shipments for week of 9/8/2016 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 36.7 mb
vs 38.1 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s September 12th projn of 1.985 bb exports
o Total shipments through 9/8/2016 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 45.1 mb i.e., 2.3% of 1.985 bb USDA projn with 2.2% of MY complete (1.14/52 weeks)
o Total new sales (9/8/2016) for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 865.1 mb i.e., 43.6% of 1.985 bb USDA projn with 2.2% of MY complete (1.14/52 weeks)
U.S. Soybean Meal Exports: “Negative” Short Run Export Shipments in MY 2015/16 and “neutral‐positive” Forward Sales o Export Shipments for week of 9/8/2016 for “current” MY 2015/16 = 204,500 mt
vs 349,000 mt/wk needed to meet USDA’s Sept. 12th projn of 10.705 mmt exports
o Total shipments through 9/8/2016 for “current” MY 2015/16 = 9.658 mmt i.e., 90.2% of 10.705 mmt USDA projn with 94.2% of MY complete (49/52 weeks)
o Total shipments & new sales (8/18/2016) for “current” MY 2015/16 = 10.687 mmt i.e., 99.8% of 10.705 mmt USDA projn with 94.2% of MY complete (49/52 weeks)
o Total new sales (8/18/2016) for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 1.882 mmt i.e., 16.9% of 11.158 USDA projn with 0.0% of MY complete (0/52 weeks)
World & U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand Fundamentals Mktg Yr World % S/U U.S. % S/U U.S. $/bu
2007/08 22.9% S/U 6.7% S/U $10.10 /bu 1.159 bb expts
2008/09 19.4% S/U 4.5% S/U $ 9.97 /bu 1.279 bb expts
2009/10 25.2% S/U 4.5% S/U $ 9.59 /bu 1.499 bb expts
2010/11 27.8% S/U 6.6% S/U $11.30 /bu 1.505 bb expts
2011/12 20.4% S/U 5.4% S/U $12.50 /bu 1.365 bb expts
2012/13 21.1% S/U 4.5% S/U $14.40 /bu 1.328 bb expts
2013/14 22.4% S/U 2.7% S/U $13.00 /bu 1.638 bb expts
2014/15 26.1% S/U 5.0% S/U $10.10 /bu 1.842 bb expts
2015/16USDA 23.0% S/U 4.9% S/U $8.95 /bu 1.940 bb expts 2016/17USDA 22.0% S/U 9.0% S/U $9.05 /bu 1.985 bb expts
NOV 2016 Soybeans $9.50 ½ on Th., Sept. 15, 2016
$9.50
$8.44 ¼ $7.76 ¼
17 | P a g e
18 | P a g e
19 | P a g e
