Kramer land use

Land Use Change: Impacts on Ecosystem Services

(or why we need to plan)

Liz KramerDirector- Natural Resources Spatial Analysis

Laboratory

What is Green Space?

It Depends on Who You Ask!

To a ConservationistTo a Recreation Director

Agriculture

Buffers

Forest

Active &Passive Recreation

Critical Habitat

What is Green Space? What is Green Space?

MANY TYPES OF GREEN SPACE MANY TYPES OF GREEN SPACE

As there are many types of Green Space,when planning for it or purchasing it, be

clear as to its intended use and management

Farm Preservation? Buffer Areas Habitat Protection

What is Green Space?

Recreation Trail Natural Corridor

What is Green Space? What is Green Space?

or or

“Green Space” must therefore be clearly defined for public discussions

“Green Space” must therefore be clearly defined for public discussions

Conservation

• The act or process of conserving• Preservation or restoration from loss, damage or neglect.• The protection, preservation, management or restoration

of wildlife and of natural resources, such as forest soil or water.

• The maintenance of a physical quantity such as energy or mass during a physical or chemical change.

• American Heritage Dictionary of the English language 4th edition

• Conservation = Environmental Protection

Conservation is not a new Concept

• Conservation is a state of harmony between men and nature Aldo Leopold

• Conservation means the wise use of the earth and its resources for the lasting good of men Gifford Pinchot

• The conservation of natural resources is the fundamental problem. Unless we solve that problem it will avail us little to solve all others Theodore Roosevelt - 1906

Environmental Protection: Do our current tools meet the needs for the future?

Land Acquisition – • How much is

enough? • Area = environmental

quality?

Environmental Protection: Do our current tools meet the needs for the future?

Regulation – What we do with or on the land• Regulation sets

basements not ceilings

• Most environmental degradation is due to population and choices

• Blunt tool and heavy handed

Environmental Protection: do our current tools meet the needs of the future?

• New ideas– Incentives, markets, and education– New players, new tools, different scales– Devolved responsibility from fed, to state, to

local governments– Process based, public input is critical– Must make economic sense for land owner,

government, and community

Ecosystem Services

• Benefits people obtain from ecosystems– Provisioning services

• Food, water, fuel, and fiber

– Regulating and supporting services• Climate, water, disease regulation, and pollination• Soil formation, nutrient cycling, and decomposition

– Cultural services• Educational, aesthetic, cultural heritage, recreation and

tourism

Green Infrastructure

• “the substructure or underlying foundation, especially the basic installations and facilities on which the continuation and growth of a community depend” – gray infrastructure - roads, sewers, utility lines,

hospitals, schools, prisons, etc– Green infrastructure – waterways, wetlands,

woodlands, wildlife habitats, natural areas, greenways, working farms, ranches and forests, wilderness, etc.

Positive Impacts of Green Space

• Environmental Impacts– Decrease stormwater runoff & improved

water quality– Protection of wildlife habitat and wildlife– Keeping working landscapes (forest &

farm)– Improved air quality– Reduces contributes to climate change

• Economic Impacts• Social Impacts

• Environmental Impacts• Economic Impacts

– Increase property values & tax base in cities– Lower taxes for community services in

suburbs– Lower construction and maintenance cost– Lower health care costs

• Social Impacts


• Environmental Impacts• Economic Impacts• Social Impacts

– Increase in economic opportunity– Improved feeling of sense of place and community– More access to open space– Increased social interaction (“public life”)– Less traffic and shorter commutes– Inner-city redevelopment


Why Manage Growth?

• Some growth will come to your city or county whether you want it or not.

• Some growth won’t come to your city or county no matter what you do.

• Then there is a middle ground you can impact– This part will decide

your fate

Economic Benefits of Farm and Forest Lands

• These lands produce valuable products for consumers, generate jobs and tax revenues– 1/6 of all jobs and gross state

product in GA

• These lands attract businesses and families

• These lands also provide a net surplus to local government finances

Economic Benefits of Green Space

• Green spaces increase property values of surrounding land

• Green and open spaces can provide environmental amenities for free

• If green spaces contribute to quality of life, you attract people and jobs to community

Development by Type

• Many counties and cities think that growth and development mean an increasing tax base and better financial health for the local government.

• Unfortunately a growing tax base is not enough to guarantee financial health, you must get revenue to grow faster than expenditures.

Revenues to Cost by Land Use

• Using results compiled by AFT, the national averages are:– Residential: $0.87– Commercial/Industrial:

$3.45– Farm/Forest/Open: $2.70

• These figures are $’s of revenue for each $1 of expenditures.

Some Southeastern US Results

Revenue:Expenditure Ratios

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

Resid. Comm. Farm/for.

Oconee

Hall

Thomas

Carroll

Jones

Cherokee

Union (NC)

Leon (FL)

Manufactured Housing

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

Dollars of Revenue per $1 of Service Cost

Colquitt

Grady

Hall

Mitchell

Thomas

Break-even Home Values

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

County

1 kid

2 kids

3 kids

1000 $

JonesThomasCherokee

Development Patterns

• Development patterns have an impact on the cost of service delivery: sprawl is expensive to service.

• The same growth done more densely and contiguously saves both money, farmland, and provides environmental amenities.– New Jersey, South Carolina,

California studies

How to Change the Numbers

• Cost of service goes down by 50% of land savings (use half the land, save 25%).

• Avoid leapfrog development.• Build where infrastructure already

exists (infill is much cheaper than extensive growth).

• Multifamily is less expensive per unit until density gets very high.

• Design so service costs are low.

Jobs, Commuting, and Home

• 31% if workers in Rural South work in a different county than where they live.

• 52% of employment growth in metro areas was from in-commuters.

• 27% of employment growth in rural areas was from in-commuters.

• jobs ≠ housing growth

• Source: Mitch Renkow, NC State

Changing the Numbers

• The ways to change the numbers sure sound a lot like the LCI concept– Commutes would be short– Density would be higher– Sometimes done as infill or redevelopment

Knowing where not to build is as important as

where to build

Green space planning identifies where not to build and allows us to

take advantage of nature in providing key services

1734 Georgia Colony

Circa 1732

Circa 1831

Railroad andCounty Map Of Georgia

1920

State HighwayMap 1939

Thomas County1895

Gwinnett County 1912

Franklin County 1956

http://dlg.galileo.usg.edu/cgi-bin/vanga.cgi?userid=public&dbs=vanga&ini=vanga.ini&action=retrieve&recno=59&rset=004&numrecs=15



Land Cover Change 1974 - 2008

1974 1985 1991 1998 2001 2005 20080

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

Open Water

Low Den Urban

High Den Urban

Clearcut/sparse veg

Deciduous Forest

Evergreen Forest

Mixed Forest

Agriculture

Forested Wetlands

Year

Hecta

res

1974 -2005 Ag Change Statewide

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sand/b

each

/mud

open

water LIU HIU

Clear

cut

Min

es/q

uarri

es/o

utcro

ps

ever

green

fore

st

decid

uous

fore

st

mix

ed fo

rest

agric

ulture

fore

sted

wet

land

s

mar

sh/b

rack

ish w

etla

nds

fresh

water

wet

lands

Per

cen

t

agriculture

Distribution of Converted Ag Lands

Tree Canopy Change

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

County

Per

cen

t

percent canopy 1992

percent canopy 2001

Percent canopy 2005

Metro Atlanta

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

CO SOx PM10 O3 NO2

tons removed 91

tons removed 01

tons removed 05

Metro Atlanta

$0

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

CO SOx PM10 O3 NO2

1991 Dollars Saved

2001 Dollars Saved

2005 Dollars Saved

Results from Ben Map Models(EPA)

Forest Fragmentation

Impervious Change: Top 10 Counties in Acres Per Day

• 1991 – 2001– Gwinnett (6)– Fulton (5)– Cobb (4)– DeKalb (2)– Forsyth (1)– Clayton (1)– Henry (1)– Chatham (1)– Cherokee (1)– Richmond (1)

• 2001 – 2005– Gwinnett (9)– Fulton (8)– Cobb (6)– DeKalb (5)– Henry (4)– Clayton (3)– Chatham (3)– Paulding (3)– Cherokee (3)– Muscogee (2)

Top 10 Impervious Surface as Percent of County

1991 2001 2005 2008

Clayton (14) Clayton (20) Clayton (25) Clayton (28)

DeKalb (13) DeKalb (18) DeKalb (22) DeKalb (25)

Fulton (10) Cobb (16) Cobb (20) Cobb (24)

Cobb (10) Fulton (15) Gwinnett (19) Gwinnett (24)

Gwinnett (7) Gwinnett (15) Fulton (18) Fulton (22)

Muscogee (7) Muscogee (9) Muscogee (12) Muscogee (14)

Richmond (6) Richmond (9) Richmond (10) Richmond (12)

Bibb (6) Clarke (8) Clarke (10) Clarke (11)

Clarke (5) Bibb (6) Rockdale (9) Rockdale (11)

Rockdale (4) Rockdale (4) Bibb (8) Bibb (10)

Water Balance

Pre-development Post-development

Urban Hydrograph

Urban Growth Modeling

• SLEUTH - Slope, Land-use, Exclusion, Urban-extent, Transportation, Hillshade

• Brute-force simulations• Types of growth – spontaneous growth,

new spreading centers, edge growth, and road-influenced growth

• Growth coefficients – dispersion, breed, spread, slope, and road gravity

Scenarios

1. Current Trends2. Future Land Use Alternative3. Service Delivery - Cluster Alternative

Current Trends Scenario Exclusion

Future Land Use Scenario Exclusion

Service Delivery – Clustered Scenario Exclusion

Scenario Results

(1) (2) (3)

Scenario Comparison•Current Trends Scenario– 2001: 13% urban, 4.3% impervious– 2025: 33% urban, 6.7 % impervious

•Future Land Use Scenario– 2001: 13% urban, 4.3% impervious– 2025: 31% urban, 6.4% impervious

•Service Delivery Cluster Scenario– 2001: 13% urban, 4.3% impervious– 2025: 26% urban, 5.8% impervious

Pettit Creek Simulated Hydrograph

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Year

Tot

al I

mpa

ired

Stre

am L

engt

h, K

m

3

2

1

Is all land the same?

Georgia encompasses 37 million acres of land

If you can read this you’re pretty much screwed

Where are the forests, farms, and wetlands that:

• have the highest values related to water quality, habitat, economy, and culture?

• are most vulnerable to loss?

Based on the above, what are the highest priority areas to preserve?

Resource Lands Assessment

Habitat fragmentation is a serious threat to biological diversity and is the primary cause of the present extinction crisis.

Habitat Preservation & Connectivity (“Critical Habitats”)

Watershed Protection (“Water quality”)

Our watersheds not only provide us with quality drinking water, but also provide healthy streams for fishing and swimming.

Why are we doing this?

?

Economic Sustainability of Forests

Protecting the best forests helps maintain a strong, resource-based economy.

Preservation of Quality Farm Land (“Economic Viability”)

Protecting the best farm land enables crop production for many generations to come.


Understanding Development Pressures

Large tracts of forests, wetlands, and farmlands are threatened with fragmentation and parcelization due to urban development pressures.

Cultural Viability

Preserving heritage and traditional values, cultural lands often define a sense of place.


Polluted air and drinking water can lead to devastating health problems and degrades overall quality of life.

Declining Environmental Quality

Nutrient Cap Maintenance

Nutrient reductions will have to be capped despite expected growth in the region.


Green Infrastructure Approach

SoutheasternEcological

Framework

Introduction to Resource Land Assessment

• What is it?– Where are the lands that:

• Have the highest values related to water quality, habitat, economy, culture, etc.?

• Are most vulnerable to loss• Based on the above, what are the highest priority

areas to preserve?

Landscape Models• Ecological Network (hubs and

corridors)• Water Quality/Quantity• Forest Economics• Air Quality• Biodiversity/Wildlife• Cultural Assets• Prime Farmland• Vulnerability

Can define many different types of nodes (cores) and hubs

• Goal• Assumptions• Data• Approach• Results

Model Overview

Ecological Network(Hubs and Corridors)

Goal

Identify, evaluate, and prioritize an interconnected network of the best remaining examples of forest and wetland habitat.


• Land Cover• Streams• Wetlands• Roads• Protected Lands• Biological Conservation

Database (element occurrence points)

Data Layers


Results

Water Quality Model

Identify those forests and wetlands that, if lost, would have the greatest potential to compromise or degrade watershed and water quality.

Goal

Regional/Watershed Factors(“Context”)

Assumptions

Water Quality Model

Local or Site Factors(“Content”)

Assemble Data Layers

Approach

Water Quality Model


Assign Score to Values within Each Data Layer

Approach

Water Quality Model



Assign Weights to Each Data Layer

Approach

Water Quality Model



Calculate Composite Score

Assign Weights to Each Data Layer

Approach

Water Quality Model

Local Parameters

1. Proximity to Water2. Erodible Soils

3. Net Primary Productivity

4. Slope

5. Wetland Function

6. Forest Fragmentation

7. 100 Year Floodplains

8. Hydrogeomorphic Regions

Regional Parameters (summarized by HUC 11 watershed)

9. Stream Density (m/sq km) 10.Percent Forested 11.Percent Impervious 12.Water Quality Rank

13.Municipal Water Supplies

Data Layers

Water Quality Model

Water Quality Model

Results

LibertyReservoir

Loch RavenReservoir

Baltimore City

A Model 12-Step ProcessA Model 12-Step Process

A green space planning processA green space planning process

1. Take charge 1. Take charge

2. Conduct a Community Resource Inventory2. Conduct a Community Resource Inventory

3. Categorize green space areas by function3. Categorize green space areas by function

4. Review previous plans & documents4. Review previous plans & documents

5. Develop clear objectives5. Develop clear objectives

Creating a Draft PlanCreating a Draft Plan

6. Take an initial stab at priority areas for preservation6. Take an initial stab at priority areas for preservation

A Model 12-Step ProcessA Model 12-Step ProcessA green space planning processA green space planning process

Fine Tuning & Selling the PlanFine Tuning & Selling the Plan

7. Contact landowners that might be affected7. Contact landowners that might be affected

8. Prioritize areas for conservation based on inventory, objectives, & landowner considerations


10. Develop an implementation scheme, including fiscal plan, regulatory aspects, and procedures

10. Develop an implementation scheme, including fiscal plan, regulatory aspects, and procedures

9. Create an inventory of priority parcels9. Create an inventory of priority parcels

11. Pepper the community with education11. Pepper the community with education

12. Fold the plan into appropriate plans and regulations12. Fold the plan into appropriate plans and regulations


1. Take charge!!1. Take charge!!

Someone has to start a discussionSomeone has to start a discussion

Someone has to take chargeSomeone has to take charge

Develop a teamDevelop a teamPlanning CommissionPlanning Commission

Chamber of

Commerce

Chamber of

Commerce

Greenspace CommissionGreenspace Commission

??


2. Conduct a Community Resource Inventory

2. Conduct a Community Resource Inventory

• committed open land• committed open land

• priority natural resource areas• priority natural resource areas

• areas that might be protected through regulation• areas that might be protected through regulation

• unique historic, archeological, or aesthetic sites• unique historic, archeological, or aesthetic sites

• areas suitable/desirable for future active recreational use• areas suitable/desirable for future active recreational use


3. Categorize green space areas by function

3. Categorize green space areas by function

1. Clean and abundant water

2. Clean air

3. Biodiversity protection

4. Cultural Identity

5. Outdoor recreation and education

1. Clean and abundant water

2. Clean air

3. Biodiversity protection

4. Cultural Identity

5. Outdoor recreation and education


4. Review Previous Plans & Documents

4. Review Previous Plans & Documents

• there is probably more out there than you think!

• there is probably more out there than you think!

• don’t waste time recreating the wheel• don’t waste time recreating the wheel


5. Develop clear goals & objectives5. Develop clear goals & objectives

• What type of green space does it address?• What type of green space does it address?

• why is the plan being developed?• why is the plan being developed?

• What will be the end result?• What will be the end result?


6. Take an initial stab at priority areas for conservation

6. Take an initial stab at priority areas for conservation

inventoryinventoryobjectivesobjectives

Local political and fiscal realities

Local political and fiscal realities


7. Contact landowners that might be affected

7. Contact landowners that might be affected

• this should be done prior to any public discussion!

• this should be done prior to any public discussion!

• point out that their property has been identified as being important, after a careful study

• point out that their property has been identified as being important, after a careful study

• determine their interest (or lack thereof) in preservation

• determine their interest (or lack thereof) in preservation

• explain that this is NOT a land grab!• explain that this is NOT a land grab!


9. Create an Inventory of Priority Parcels

9. Create an Inventory of Priority Parcels

• I.d. number• I.d. number

• owner• owner

• reason for priority listing• reason for priority listing

• assessed value• assessed value


10. Develop an implementation scheme

10. Develop an implementation scheme

• how will green space protection be funded?• how will green space protection be funded?

• what changes to regulations are needed?• what changes to regulations are needed?

• what is the role of each “player”? • what is the role of each “player”?

• what are the management needs of acquired properties?

• what are the management needs of acquired properties?

• what mechanisms are needed to keep implementation moving?

• what mechanisms are needed to keep implementation moving?

10. Develop an implementation scheme10. Develop an implementation scheme

Preservation TechniquesPreservation Techniques

• fee simple purchase• fee simple purchase

• purchase of conservation restrictions (easements)

• purchase of conservation restrictions (easements)

• donation• donation

• “bargain” sale • “bargain” sale • fair market value sale• fair market value sale

• upon death by owner • upon death by owner • outright• outright

• with lifetime use• with lifetime use

• land exchange/foreclosure/eminent domain• land exchange/foreclosure/eminent domain

• regulation (zoning, subdivision dedication, etc.)• regulation (zoning, subdivision dedication, etc.)


11. Pepper the community with education

11. Pepper the community with education

• Develop outreach materials• Develop outreach materials

• Hold proactive public meetings• Hold proactive public meetings

• Listen! Review & revise, if needed• Listen! Review & revise, if needed


12. Fold the plan into appropriate plans and regulations

12. Fold the plan into appropriate plans and regulations

Green Space Plan

Green Space Plan

Comprehensive Development

Plan

Comprehensive Development

Plan

Zoning regs?Zoning regs?

Wetlands regs?Wetlands regs?

Sudivision regs?Sudivision regs?

The Ideal Planning Process

The Ideal Planning Process

Inventory

Analysis

Plan

Implementation

A Simple Example…A Simple Example…

1. Inventory1. Inventory

Base MapBase Map

Land CoverLand Cover

WetlandsWetlands

Water ResourcesWater Resources

Unique/FragileUnique/Fragile

CommittedCommitted

Inventory

Analysis

Plan

Implementation



Inventory

Analysis

Plan

2. Analysis2. Analysis• Developed• Developed

• Regulated• Regulated

• Committed OS• Committed OS

Implementation

Areas available to be

developed in GRAYAreas available to be

developed in GRAY



Inventory

Analysis

Plan

2. Analysis2. Analysis

3. Develop the Plan3. Develop the Plan

• Linkages• Linkages

• ID Resources at Risk• ID Resources at Risk

Implementation

• Windows/Additions• Windows/Additions

Developed, regulated, committedDeveloped, regulated, committed AvailableAvailable



Inventory

Analysis

Plan



• Linkages• Linkages

• ID Resources at Risk

• ID Resources at Risk

Implementation

• Windows/Additions• Windows/Additions• ID Parcels• ID Parcels• Prioritize• Prioritize

Developed, regulated, committedDeveloped, regulated, committed AvailableAvailable



Inventory

Analysis

Plan



4. Implementation4. Implementation

Implementation

AdditionAddition

Link Large TractsLink Large Tracts

Committed OS Committed OS

Available Available

Fill in windows Fill in windows

Questions?

Kramer land use

Technology

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