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2004 Group of Eight Human Resources and Industrial Relations Conference

Forum: Work and life values in a world of choice

Bernard Salt

Author The Big Shift

Partner KPMG Australia

19 August 2004

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From the bush … out with RM Williams … in with Billabong & Rip Curl

• Suburban culture emerged during the 20th Century• Provincial coastal culture now ascendant • Underpinned by lifestyle-seeking baby boomers• Edna Everage; Neighbours 1985; Kath & Kim 2002

2001

Inner city5%

Suburbia58%

Rural18%

Coastal19%

1901

Inner city25%

Suburbia15%

Rural52%

Coastal8%

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0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

Baby boomers just won’t die!

Source: ABS Censuses; ABS Series B Projections September 2003

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It doesn’t get any better after 43-48

40

5430

25

70

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,0001

5

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

51

54

57

60

63

66

69

72

75

78

81

84

87

90

93

96

99

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Born 1931

‘Rich’ live longer

Boomer mid-pointTotal populationby single year

Pre-boomer’sslide

Boomers at their peak until June 2006 … then the slide begins

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Boom Baby Boom … get in the groove now

• Born July 1946 – June 1961

• Aged 43-58 in 2004

• Number: 4.1 million

• Fee free tertiary education: 1972–1987

• Married by 23 … left home at 18

• Property boom 1987–1989 and 1999–2003

• Did not consider not having children

• Youth culture yielded “Free Love”

• Hippies, Punks, Dinks, Yuppies and now Seachangers

• Peak income earning period 1996 - 2006

• About 2015 — redirect national budget towards PBS

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Generation Xcluded

• Born July 1961 – June 1976

• Aged 28 – 43 in 2004

• Number: 4.4 million

• HECS from 1987 … live with mum and dad

• Married by 30

• Missed the property boom 1999–2003

• No social prescription to have children

• Forged “urban chic” and the shift downtown

• Peak income earning period 2011–2021

• About 2015 — tell Boomers: “you should have provisioned better for retirement in your time, not ours”