Kolkata Real Estate Report H2 2016 Presentation
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Transcript of Kolkata Real Estate Report H2 2016 Presentation
H1 2016, a recap
- A recovery predictedINDIA
REAL ESTATEJULY – DECEMBER 2016
KOLKATA
KOLKATAREAL ESTATE
H1 residential market recap
HAD STEADY LAUNCHES INA RESTRAINED MARKET;
SALES HAD DECLINED BY 10%
We predicted a 4% de-growth YoY in sales for H2 2016,
but Kolkata saw a steeper decline in H2 2016
New launches decline by 15%; Sales observe a fall of 20%
Half yearly trend in launches and sales
H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015 H2 2016 -
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
10,
720
8,1
57
15,
653
10,
680
9,0
93
Launches
No. o
f uni
ts
H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015 H2 2016 -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
8,1
63
6,8
74
8,6
07
9,1
70
7,3
08
Sales
No.
of u
nits
15%
20%
Substantial fall in H2 2016 has pulled the annual numbers to
below 2015 performance
New launches witness a relatively controlled decline of 8%; Sales fall by 14%
Yearly trend in launches and sales
2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2204
7
2044
1 3026
4
2275
3
2098
4.25
Launches
No.
of u
nits
2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1639
4
1555
3
1875
1
2061
8
1764
6.8
Sales
No. o
f uni
ts
8%14%
While city sees subdued new launches overall, Rajarhat and
South Kolkata lead launches share in H2 2016
Rajarhat continues to lead in launches; South sees considerable growth YoY
in H2 2016Micro-marketwise half yearly trend in share of launches
Central East North Rajarhat South0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1%
10%
20%
42%
27%
1%
10%
15%
40%
34%
H2 2015 H2 2016
Demand slackens in the city; South follows Rajarhat closely in
share of sales
Host of affordable projects in the Southern peripheral locations and upcoming metro rail
drive the demand Micro-marketwise half yearly trend in share of sales
Central East North Rajarhat South0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1%
7%
21%
46%
25%
2%
11%
18%
35% 34%
H2 2015 H2 2016
QTS on a gradual decline;2.1 years to offload the unsold inventory
QTS trend
Jun-1
4Ju
l-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-1
5
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-1
5Ju
l-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-1
6
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-1
6Ju
l-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
8.5
10.411.1
12.012.5 12.1
10.7 10.4 10.09.5
8.3
QTS Unsold inventory
at 37,459 units
Impact of Demonetisation
New launches fall by 25% YoY in Q4 2016; Sales decline by 20%
Quarterly trend of new launches and sales
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
8347
6265
9739
5914 6523
55515562 4675
62135679 5587
3506
52654879
42124395
56645784
4684 42665241
50993895 3413
New Launch Absorption
No. o
f uni
ts
Q4 revenue loss for both State exchequer and industry
Average # units sold in Q4 2014 & Q4 2015 4,331
# Units sold in Q4 2016 3,413
21% fall in sales
Notional REVENUE LOSS to real estate industry
INR 500 cr
State government notional LOSS ON STAMP DUTY
INR 30 cr
Key takeaways
Launches go downhill, sales weaken in H2 2016 on a YoY basis
Garia, Baruipur and Narendrapur in South, Sodepur, BT Road and Madhyamgram in North, as well as Rajarhat
attract buyers due to affordable prices
Uncertainty likely to continue for the next quarter
Reduction in home loan interest rates, RERA, GST and ‘possible’ tax benefits in the upcoming budget likely to bring in a ‘feel good factor’
among buyers
Download the complete report from the link below:bit.ly/IREH216-SS