Kodi Monroe Sea Grant Weather & Climate Extension Agent National Severe Storms Laboratory Norman, OK...
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![Page 1: Kodi Monroe Sea Grant Weather & Climate Extension Agent National Severe Storms Laboratory Norman, OK CI-FLOW Project Coastal & Inland Flooding Observation.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032723/56649d085503460f949d9a95/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Kodi MonroeSea Grant Weather & Climate Extension Agent
National Severe Storms LaboratoryNorman, OK
CI-FLOW ProjectCoastal & Inland Flooding Observation and Warning
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Origin of the CI-FLOW ProjectInitiated in response to Hurricanes Dennis & Floyd in Sep 1999• 20-25 in of rain over 10 days• River crests up to 24 ft above flood
stage• Storm surge as high as 10 ftImpacts• 52 lives lost in North Carolina• Homes: 7,000 destroyed; 17,000
uninhabitable; 56,000 damaged• 30,000 hogs, 700,000 turkeys, &
2.4 million chickens drowned• Warnings that tap water may
contain high levels of fecal coliform bacteria
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History of the CI-FLOW Project
2000: NOAA OAR & National Sea Grant Meeting• Increase collaboration between Sea Grant
Extension Network & OAR research labs• Established Inland FLood Warning (IFLOW)
Project to force OU hydrologic model with NSSL precipitation estimates
National Sea Grant OfficeNorth Carolina Sea Grant
S.C. Sea Grant Consortium
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History of the CI-FLOW Project
2001: NCSU joins IFLOW• Coupled hydrologic model forced with NSSL precipitation
estimates to Coastal & Estuary Model & Environmental Prediction System (CEMEPS)
2006: IFLOW becomes CI-FLOW• Sea Grant funds Weather & Climate Extension Agent position
at NSSL• NWS hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) implemented
National Sea Grant OfficeNorth Carolina Sea Grant
S.C. Sea Grant Consortium
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History of the CI-FLOW Project
2008: CI-FLOW expands• NOAA SECART funds nowCOAST portal• OU & UNC researchers join CI-FLOW to include ADvanced
CIRCulation model + unstructured Simulating WAves Nearshore model
2010: Hurricane Earl is first real-time test of CI-FLOW• Established relationship with EPA2011: Hurricane Irene is first robust test of CI-FLOW
National Sea Grant OfficeNorth Carolina Sea Grant
S.C. Sea Grant ConsortiumTexas Sea Grant
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CI-FLOW Partners
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Increasing Hydrologic Forecasting Capabilities In Coastal Watersheds
Current NWS Forecast Points CI-FLOW Forecast Points
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CI-FLOW PrecipitationPast rainfall: NSSL’s Next Generation QPE (Q2)• Best practices of OHD’s Multi-
sensor QPE (MPE) & NSSL’s National Mosaic & Multi-sensor QPE (NMQ)
• Gauge-adjusted 1-hour accumulation
• Uncorrected QPE available every 5 min at 1-km resolution
Future rainfall: Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s QPF• 6-hour accumulation
http://nmq.ou.edu
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CI-FLOW Hydrologic Modeling• Tar-Pamlico & Neuse river basins• Hydrology Laboratory –
Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) by NWS
• Hybrid conceptual-physical distributed watershed model:– Sacramento Soil Moisture
Accounting model (SAC-SMA)– Kinematic Wave Model for routing– 4-km resolution– 19 parameters; 6 state variables
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CI-FLOW Hydrologic Model Ensemble
1. “Event-based” parameter set (Isabel) x 16 rainfall multipliers (0.8-1.2, uniformly distributed)
2. “Automatic” parameter set x 16 rainfall multipliers3. Multiple basin scale parameter set x 16 rainfall multipliers4. A-priori model (uncalibrated) x 5 rainfall multiplier x 16
channel routing perturbations = 80
Total Number of Members = 16x3 + 80 = 128
• Runs every 6 hours with rainfall forcing from NMQ/Q2 observations for past & HPC QPFs for future times
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CI-FLOW Storm Surge ModelADvanced CIRCulation + Simulating WAves Nearshore
• Asymmetric Vortex Wind Model– Uses official track, forward speed, radius to maximum winds,
central pressure & other information from NHC advisories• 2-D ADCIRC
– Tides & tidal potential– River input provided by HL-RDHM at 4 hand-off points– Wind waves– Wetting/drying of elements
• SWAN: Spectral wave model– Waves in all 360 degrees– Wave action balance equation with sources/sinks
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CI-FLOW Storm Surge ModelADvanced CIRCulation + Simulating WAves Nearshore
• Unstructured finite element grid
• High resolution for the Tar & Neuse Rivers, Outer Banks, & Pamlico Sound (down to 30 – 60 m)
• Dynamic coupling between ADCIRC & SWAN– Predictions of total water
level, maximum inundation, wave height, wave period, & tides
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Distribution of InformationNSSL Password-protected Website – mimics NWS AHPS
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Distribution of InformationCoastal Environmental Risks Assessment
http://nc-cera.renci.org/cgi-cera_nc/cera_nc.cgi
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Distribution of InformationCoastal Environmental Risks Assessment
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Distribution of InformationGoogle Earth kmz files – available via OPeNDAP
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Distribution of InformationNOAA nowCOAST
http://nowcoast.noaa.gov/ciflow/
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CI-FLOW User Engagement
Primary Users• Raleigh, NC NWS Weather Forecast Office• Newport/Morehead City, NC NWS Weather Forecast
Office• NWS Southeast River Forecast CenterSecondary Users (briefed by NWS forecasters)• Local Emergency Managers (communities & universities)• State Emergency Management
– North Carolina & Virginia– NC Central & Eastern Branches
• North Carolina Department of Transportation
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Future CI-FLOW Work
• Account for rainfall over ADCIRC domain• Water quality modeling• Expand to other regions: South Carolina,
Texas, Louisiana
Kodi [email protected]://www.nssl.noaa.gov/ciflow/