Know4DRR vischi

AUTONOME PROVINZ BOZEN - SÜDTIROL PROVINCIA AUTONOMA DI BOLZANO - ALTO ADIGE

Ripartizione protezione antincendi e civile – Matteo Vischi Abteilung Brand- und Zivilschutz – Matteo Vischi

Matteo Vischi Chambéry 27.05.2015

KNOW4DRR Project Final Conference



Relativity of certainty



Black Swans – Uncertainty - Unespected

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan. The Impact of the highly Improbable

(Penguin Books, 2007) Les Fraser - www.photoradar.com

To be prepared for the unespected

Uncertainty

and decision making

Unespected situations

«Take as granted» limit

Intra/Interdependancies



There are no more simple (natural) risks anymore, the scenarios are always complex

€

Interreg IVA IT-AUT IRKIS Gefahren und Risikoanalyse Südtirol

INTERREG IVA IT–CH DESTINATION



Inter- & Intradependencies



Redundancies and Resilience

•  Complexity of redundancies

•  Intrinsic and systemic reliability of the redundancies

•  Sustainability of redundancies

•  Pareto Principle

„FAIL-SAFE“ „SAFE-FAIL“



Limit of «universal solutions»



Traffico veicolare

Trasporto merci

Trasporto ferroviario

Trasporto aereo

Trasporto pubblico

Impianti a fune

Alluvioni

Dighe

Fenomeni Idrogeologici

Cadute Massi

Terremoti

Incendi Boschivi

Valanghe

Vento Forte

Nevicate Abbondanti

Ondate di Calore

Acqua potabile

Telecomunicazioni

Corrente Elettrica

Telefonia

Carburanti

Rete internet

Servizi bancari

Servizi postali

Asporto rifiuti

Sostanze pericolose

Rischio industriale

Inquinamento

Radioattività

Eventi a grande afflusso

Incidenti NEV-‐MANV

Rischio biologico

Tossinfezioni alimentari

Emergenze veterinarie

Multi- Risk



A «Salutogenetic» approach to risk management

We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. (A. Einstein)

Process, Hazard Risk, Exposition, Damage, Vulnerability à Holistic Resilience



Residual Risk & Self-empowerment

From: www.ssi-ch.info, 2006

let's stop selling safety!

sell risk awareness and skills!



Self-empowerment Balance

Energy

Fuel Oxygen Response & Relief System

Public Administration

Government

Public Awareness



Integral Risk Management



Distributed Resilience We are all decision makers



Holistic, Stakeholder-Driven Approach

•  Family

•  Community

•  Business, Industries

•  University & Research

•  Providers

•  Government



Holistic Knowledge Pyramid



Different perception of expertise



Different perception of expertise

•  Local tradition •  Historical heritage •  Historical memory

•  Scientific knowledge •  Modeling •  Scientific community



Data / Information / Knowledge management



Usability of the knowledge

“If you want to have good answers you

need to make some good questions”

Albert Einstein

(1879-1955)

Corollary: Often we have the

right answers to the wrong questions



Efficient knowledge transfer for decision making process



The «Galilean relativity» of communication and knowledge transfer



The “Galileian relativity” of decision making and problem solving



Knowledge transfer gaps on different levels



knowledge transfer is a matter of means



Needs-oriented solutions



Artificial vs Human intelligence



CCA or Adaptive Minds Change?

The Climat

e?

Climate is going mad



Thank you!

Matteo Vischi

[email protected] +39 0471 416018



Rea

l W

orld

A

bst

ract

W

orld

Real Time

Abstract Time

Know4DRR vischi

Environment

Transcript of Know4DRR vischi