Kjell AC Bergström¶m.… · Saab Automobile Powertrain Kjell ac Bergström Page 8. Energy...

Saab Automobile Powertrain Kjell ac Bergström

Framtida FramdrivningsteknikFramtida Framdrivningsteknik- flytande, gas, el eller ..?

Stockholm 2 december 2010 Kjell ac Bergström


Framtida FramdrivningsteknikerUtmaningar & Möjligheter- Utmaningar & Möjligheter

Framtida Globalt Energibehov

E i å f ld Energimångfald

Hybridteknikery

Elfordon


Challenges & Opportunities I

G th I d t

Challenges & Opportunities I

Growth Industry 2007: 70 million vehicle sales 2016: 94 million vehicle sales

Ch ll I E h t E i i l 1990Challenge I => Exhaust Emissions – early 1990 HC / CO / NOx emission regulations –US /California Federal Tier 1 started in 1994 PZEV & AT-PZEV 2000 - 2012+ Euro 5a - 5b / Euro 6a - 6b – ”Fuel neutral”


Challenges & Opportunities II

Ch ll II > G H G 2005

Challenges & Opportunities II

Challenge II => Green House Gases - 2005 CO2 taxations EU : 2012 – 130 g CO2 / km 2020 – 95 g CO2 / kmg 2 g 2 CAFE / PAFE-requirements in US

Ch ll III > S t i bilitChallenge III => Sustainability 35 % World´s Energy - Petroleum based 98 % Automotive Energy - Petroleum based98 % Automotive Energy Petroleum based 2 % Growth rate / year

70 %Needed Energy Level 2030 + 70 % vs 2007Key Challenge will be ENERGY Security


Future Automotive Fuels – The ChallengesFuture Automotive Fuels The Challenges

Energy Supply & Security Future Global Energy Demands exceeds our Prospective Supply Several Risks could disrupt Existing Supply Controlling Energy is Political Power

Environmental Challenges Stringent Regional ”Zero Emission” Requirements Stringent Regional Zero Emission Requirements Growing Concern over Green House Effects / CO2-emissions Potential for Regulations that exceed Technical Capabilityg p y

and Business Feasibility


Automotive Business DevelopmentAutomotive Business Development

Dynamic Development of the Business situationDynamic Development of the Business situation

Automotive Industry is facing huge Challenges

New more Environmentally Friendly Solutions

E ffi i t V hi l /P t i T h l i Energy efficient Vehicle/Powertrain Technologies

Quick adaptation towards New Low CO2 vehiclesp 2

New Alternative Fuels will be introduced to step-by-step

Combustion Research will for long time be a key issue


Energy Diversity – Blending Strategy

Energy Energy Propulsion

Energy Diversity Blending Strategy“Liquid Fuels/Electricity/Hydrogen” as the In-Vehicle Energy Carriers

Conventional ICE:Gasoline/Diesel

1st & 2nd Gen Biofuels

Petroleum FuelsOil (Conventional) LiquidFuels

gyResource Conversion

gyCarrier

pSystem

ICE Hybrid

Regional Niche ICE

1 & 2 Gen. Biofuels

SyngasCO, H2

Synthetic fuels (xTL)

Biomass

Oil (Non-Conventional)

on

Regional NicheGaseous Fuels

(e.g. CNG)

Plug-In Hybrid ICE

Range Extended EV: ttery

Coal

Natural Gas

ctrif

icat

i

Electricity

Battery Electric

Range-Extended EV:IC Engine/Fuel-Cell B

at

Renewables(Solar, Wind, Hydro)

Elec

Electricity

Fuel-Cell ElectricNuclear Hydrogen


Energy Diversity - Renewable FuelsEnergy Diversity Renewable Fuels

BioFuels Most significant Near-Term Solution to

Off t th i i V hi l E D d d Offset the rising Vehicle Energy Demands and Reduce Green House Gas Emissions

Next-Generation BioFuels Provide a clean, renewable Alternative to Petroleum Not just Replacing, but better Engine Fuel than Petroleum

P d i Ch ll Production Challenges The Growing, Gathering and Processing of sustainable

Feedstocks for these Future Fuels are critical Sustainable BioFuels made from Non-grain Sources could offset

substantial part of Future Vehicle Energy Demand by 2030


Renewable Fuels - A Real Alternative ?Renewable Fuels A Real Alternative ?

Energy Supply & Security Could be a part in Securing Future Energy Supplyp g gy pp y Dependent on Local and Regional Conditions Growth Possibilities for Local IndustriesGrowth Possibilities for Local Industries

Environmental ChallengesEnvironmental Challenges Could with right Process reduce the Net CO2-emissions Limitations with First Generation FuelsLimitations with First Generation Fuels Potentials with Second and Third Generation Fuels


Electricity BasicsElectricity Basics

Electricity is not an Energy source but an Energy CarrierElectricity is not an Energy source but an Energy Carrier

Produced from many Energy Sources

Relatively inexpensive

Cyclical Demand Cyclical Demand

Hard to Store

Electricity and Hydrogen are interchangeable


Electricity CO mixElectricity, CO2 mix

H th El t i it i d d i t th CO i iHow the Electricity is produced impacts the CO2 emissionsfrom Battery Electrically driven Vehicles (BEV) andf ( )from Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV)

• CO2 mix Sweden 0-5 g/kWh 0-1 g/kmNorway

CO i N di 100 /kWh 20 /k• CO2 mix Nordic 100 g/kWh 20 g/km• CO2 mix EU 500 g/kWh 100 g/km

CO i US 1000 /kWh 200 /k• CO2 mix US 1000 g/kWh 200 g/km


Battery Technology Improvements

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Saab Automobile Powertrain Kjell ac Bergström 13

Hydrogen Basics

Hydrogen is an Energy Carrier

Could be used in ICE and Fuel Cells

Large Global Infrastructure already exists Large Global Infrastructure already exists

Produced from many Sources

Can be competitive with Gasoline on cost-per-km Basis

Hard to Store Hard to Store

Electricity and Hydrogen are interchangeable


Powertrain Concepts vs Driving Range


Powertrain Concepts vs Driving Cycle


Strategic Technologies - Level of ElectrificationStrategic Technologies Level of Electrification

Liquid FuelDependence

Level ofLevel of Electrification

Start/Stop

ConventionalVehicle

Regeneration Electric Drive

Power from GridNovel Architecture

Power from Grid


Balancing the Electrification of Vehicles CO2 reduction vs System complexity

Electric Propulsion

CostPackaging

Combustion Engine Power

Electric PropulsionPower Cooling

Weight

Hybrid VehiclesPower

Cruise

0 15 4530 60 90 10575 135120 165150 kW

CruiseAssist Acceleration and cruising

Extended Range Electric VehiclesCruiseCh Pure electric drive and acceleration

0 15 4530 60 90 10575 135120 165150 kW

Charge Pure electric drive and acceleration


Pwt Concept versus Electric Range

Level of Electric RangeElectric Range

100 % Full RangeBattery Exchange

Full ICE Full RangeExtender ICE

/Simple Range

Extender Engine

HEV PHEV EREV

Legal Requirement (Calif)6 %

Full BEVLim. BEV

Degree of Battery System Maturity


Road Map to the Electrical Vehicle

Woods EV 1905

GM EV1EV 1996-1999

True Electric-SaabEV 2009

Level of Electrification EREVExtended Range Electrical Vehicle

PHEVPlug-In Hybrid Electrical Vehicle

Degree of Maturity for Battery SystemHEV g y y yHybrid Electrical VehicleLohner-Porsche

Series HEV 1900


Summary ac/dc

There is no singel Solution for our Energy needs We need to resort to all Energy Sources available We need to resort to all Energy Sources available

Todays gasoline and BioPower engines will continue to play a major role for the near term will continue to play a major role for the near term

The customer requirements on the vehicle remains But the choice of Power Plant will start to changeBut the choice of Power Plant will start to change Therefore HEV, PHEV, EREV and BEV will be part of main stream

Next (third or forth) Generations Battery powered or assisted e ( d o o ) Ge e a o s a e y po e ed o ass s edVehicles will play a certain role in the future for specific usage and customers

But we have to start NOW Without Children - no Grand Children


ac/dc

W l O B dWelcome On Board


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