Kira Radinsky, Sagie Davidovich, Shaul Markovitch Computer Science Department Technion – Israel...
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Transcript of Kira Radinsky, Sagie Davidovich, Shaul Markovitch Computer Science Department Technion – Israel...
Predicting the News of Tomorrow Using Patterns in
Web Search Queries
Kira Radinsky, Sagie Davidovich, Shaul MarkovitchComputer Science Department Technion – Israel Institute of technology
Goal
"We find that changes in oil prices strongly predict future stock market returns in many countries in the world... The impact of this predictability on stock returns tends to be large.“ (“Striking Oil: Another Puzzle?”Gerben Driesprong, Benjamin
Maat and Ben Jacobsen)
Oil Peaks and Stock Market Crashes
NEW YORK – Crude-oil futures shot up as commodities
markets benefited from a surge in investor confidence.
Light, sweet crude for January delivery settled $4.57, or
9.2%, higher at $54.50 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. January Brent crude on the ICE
futures exchange settled $4.74, or 9.6%, higher at
$53.93 a barrel.
Humans can predict eventsCan it be done automatically?
Solution OutlineIdentify events that occur today
More than 0.5 billion daily searches on the web (2008)
Many queries are related to current events
Analyze what events tend to follow today’s events in the pastHistory repeats itselfQuery log archives
July 08
Aug 08
Sep08
Identifying EventsHurricane Ivan
Hurricane Wilma Hurricane
Dean
Hurricane Gustav
Hurricane Katrina
Peak Detection AlgorithmEach maximum point my has at most two neighboring minimumpoints. We consider a maximum point as a peak if:
1. Local maximum my> Δ1 (high-pass filter).2. The difference between the point my and the lowest of its neighboring minimum points is above Δ2.
Prediction
Indication Weight1. : How many of the peaks of w2 (future
candidate) appeared k days after w1 (today’s term)
2. Saliency of w1: Significance of the peak in the search volume.
hurricane
Storm
Flood
Weather
Evacuation
Gas
Economics
TalibanWar
South Asia
china
pope
texans
0.85
0.40
0.10
0.36
0.12
0.30
0.05
0.01
0.08
Goal: For each candidate term evaluate the likelihood of it to appear in the future, given today’s terms.
Likelihood to appear in k days
Future candidate
terms
Today’s salient
terms
Indication weight on
the candidate
0.9
0.7
212 | tktt wPwwP
Hurricane
Gas
Oil, Gas May Soar as Storm Shuts U.S. Gulf ProductionCrude-oil and natural-gas prices may soar after Hurricane Katrina moved into production regions of the Gulf of Mexico, forcing companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. to close operations
Gas Prices Rise
as Industry Assesses Storm
Damage HOUSTON — Gasoline prices rose
Saturday by an average of five
cents a gallon across the country as
the oil industry anticipated
disruptions at several refineries
along the Texas coast because of
Hurricane Ike.
Hurricane
Empirical MethodologyTesting on aggregation of 4500 online news
sources
What is “to appear in the news”Appear significantly more times than its
average in the past year
Precision at 100
Empirical Evaluation
• Baseline method - What happens today happens tomorrow• Each point is how many of the 100 appeared• A total of 30 days of experiments
Empirical Evaluation
• Baseline method - What happens today happens tomorrow• Each point is an average of results from 30 days of tests
Empirical Evaluation
• Baseline-related – 100 terms which are related to today’s terms are selected randomly• Each point is how many of the 100 appeared• A total of 30 days of experiments
Baseline - Related
Baseline - Related
Empirical Evaluation
• Cross-Correlation - Not using indication weights• Each point is how many of the 100 appeared• A total of 30 days of experiments