Using systems thinking to understand food insecurity across fisheries and

agricultural systems in coastal communities within Southeast Asia

Research ObjectiveAssess the future vulnerability of island coastal communities who are reliant on

fisheries and agriculture to achieve a food secure future, by understanding the

ecosystem and socio-economic system interactions and dynamics

Food security or food insecurity?“Food security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic access to

sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet all their dietary needs and food preferences for

an active and healthy life” (FAO 2006)

Five aspects of food securityFive aspects of food security:

1. Availability: enough food to feed people2. Access: ability of people to physically obtain and

economically procure food 3. Utilisation: use of food for body’s nutrition and the

utility (pleasure) obtained from food4. Stability: people feel certain about where their next

meal is coming from5. Suitability: determining one’s quality of life, culturally

acceptable and preferences

Why systems thinking as an approach?

Source: Ingram (2011) A Food system approach to researching food security and its interactions with global environmental change

Why systems thinking as an approach?• Food security is a complex or wicked problem. • Cannot be addressed in isolation – part of a system• Practitioners do not have a singular framework to address food security

• Food security is intrinsically linked to livelihoods• Current research focuses on:

• global or regional levels – very little on local scales and impacts• agricultural or fisheries treated as separate systems • singular aspect focus with food systems

• Enables an exploration of food insecurity at the local level

The El Nido Case Study

El Nido Site

Research Approach & Results

1. Problem Articulation

Source: Sterman (2006), Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modelling for a complex world

Food Insecurity Drivers• Drivers:

• Increasing population brought about by increasing tourism

• Increasing demand on resources• Loss of agricultural land due to development• Habitat degradation• Resource depletion• Climate related incidence

2. Dynamic Hypothesis

Source: Sterman (2006), Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modelling for a complex world

2. Dynamic Hypothesis

Step 1: Systems Mapping

•Conducted Community Participatory Workshops (CPWs)

Community Participatory Workshops

18 barangays 54 CPWs 796 participants

2. Dynamic HypothesisStep 1: Systems Mapping• Created mental models or rich pictures of the problem using SESAMME tool • Resources• Resource use activities• Pressures influencing the resources and activities• The past, expected future and desired future trends• Interactions between these activities, resources and

pressures, and • Decisions that could be taken to address problematic

trends in these activities, resources or pressures

SESAMME

Resources

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Wild Chicken Wild Boar

Freshwater fish Whale Shark (butanding)

Lake Hot springs

Minerals (Manganese) Saging Coffee

Jelly Fish Forest over limestone

Planted trees Limestone cliffs

Creek Buri

Kugon Rattan Guano

Tamilok Irrigation Pandan

Latian (kaingin produce) Cashews

Shark Dolphin

Manta Rays Water system (stream)

Upland Rice (kaingin rice) Abalone

Octopus (Pugita) Sea Urchin River turtle

Caves (Pasimbahan) Rivers

Balansasayaw (birds nest) Manlet (giant clam)

Seahorse Waterfall

Sand and gravel Lobster

Honey / honey bees Squid

Prawns / shrimps Dugong

Beach (Lapus-lapus) Timber

Seaweed (Lato) Non Timber (rattan, buho, yantok)

Crabs (Alimasag) Wildlife Poultry

Piggery Rice

Sea Cucumber (Balatan) Turtle (Pawikan)

Nipa / Pawid Fruit

Vegetables Coral Crops

Shells / Shellfish Seagrass Livestock

Natural Water source Fish

Mangrove Coconut Palm

Forest

Resources: FGD Round One

% of barangays

Nbr of barangays who identified resources

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Fish resources

Forest over limestone

Limestone cliffs

Water system (stream)

Balansasayaw (birds

Caves (Pasimbahan)

Watershed

Balansasayaw (swfits)

Cashews

Rivers

Sand and gravel

Upland Rice (kaingin

Molluscs

Seaweed (Lato)

Coral

Timber

Nipa / Pawid

Livestock

Crops

Fruit

Rice

Fish

Shells / Shellfish

Crustaceans

Other important marine

Mangrove

Seagrass

Beach (Lapus-lapus)

Man-made water source

Non Timber (rattan,

Coconut Palm

Wildlife

Poultry

Vegetables

Forest

Natural Water source

Resources - FGD Round Two

% of barangays

Nbr of barangays

CLD for the Agricultural Food System

Population DeathsBirths

+

+R1

+

-B1

Emigration

Emigration rate

Immigration Immigration rate

+

-

+

+

B2

R2

+

+

Labour / Job ratio

Jobs

-

-

Labour

+

+

B3

Tourist Population Development

+

+

Attractiveness ofarea to tourists

++R3

Reclaimation

Mangrove Cover

Cutting & Logging

Demand for Charcoal

Demand fornon-timber resources

Illegal occupancyof forest

Clearing for landownership

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

Demand for timber

+

-

+

+

Demand for sand& gravel

Forest Cover

-

Land clearing fordevelopment

+

Quarrying

Erosion andSedimentation

Water Quality

+

+

-+

-

B5

+

-

B8

Coral Reef Cover

Tourist Activities

Boat anchoring andtrampling corals

+

+

-

+

Sewage

+

-Disease Outbreak

+

-

Price of locallyproduced Ag Products Demand for

Agricultural Products

Supply / Demand Ratiofor Agricultural Products

Supply ofAgricultural Products

Vertically IntegratedHotel Supply Chains

Import ofAgricultural Products

-

--B15

+

+

++

Demand for Water

Water Supply /Demand Ratio

Water Supply+

+

+

Water ShortagesAgricultural

Productivity (yieldper ha)

Fertiliser

Pesticide

Agrochemical Runoff

-

+

+

++

Agricultural Production

+

+

-

Agricultural Land

Land Clearing forAgricultural

Development

Land that can becleared for Agriculture

Total SuitableAgricultural Land

Demand forAgricultural Land

Income from Farming

++

Attractiveness ofFarming

Shift to Tourism andother Employment

Attractiveness ofother EmploymentIncome from other

Employment

+ -

+

+

+

-

+

++

-

+

+

-

-

-

B4

B6

B7

B9

B10

+

B11

B12

B13

B14

B16

+

CLD for tourism, development & habitat degradation

Livelihoods and alternative food sources impacting on the food system

3. Formulation of simulation models

Going from a conceptual qualitative understanding to..

To a quantitative dynamic model of the system

Thank you

Acknowledgements• Dr Carl Smith, The University of Queensland• Dr Russell Richards, The University of Queensland• Prof. Angela (Helen) Ross, The University of Queensland• Ms Noreen (Kubi) Follosco, University of the Philippines• Ms Miladel Quibilan, University of the Philippines• El Nido Foundation• Capturing Coral Reef and Related Ecosystem Services

Project• World Bank• Global Environment Facility