Kieper (The Cadmus Group) Project Results...Standardization and data preservation Enables reliable...
Transcript of Kieper (The Cadmus Group) Project Results...Standardization and data preservation Enables reliable...
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Evaluating ESPCProject Results
Alice G. Dasek (DOE), Robert Slattery (ORNL), Peter Larsen (LBNL), and Torsten Kieper (The Cadmus Group)Better Buildings ESPC Webinar SeriesSession 5 – Evaluating ESPC Project ResultsSeptember 13, 2018
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Overview
Overview of the ESPC Toolkit
Guidelines for ESPC Measurement & Verification
ESPC Project Benchmarking
Tools for Economic Impact Analysis
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Accelerator Profile
Timeframe2014-2016
Partners25 partners (18 states, six cities, one school district)
PurposeExpand access to Energy Savings Performance Contracting (ESPC) as a promising option for financing energy efficiency retrofits in the public sector
OutcomeMore than $2 billion invested in MUSH ESPC contracts3
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Area 1: Streamlining the ESPC Process• Partners reviewed existing model ESPC documents
Area 2: Empowering the Market• Partners participated in ePB feedback & training
Area 3: Resolving Individual ESPC Barriers• Support successful, permanent, innovative, and
replicable resolution of individual partner barriers
Accelerator Activity Areas
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The ESPC Toolkit
Considering ESPC
Implementing ESPC
Establishing ESPC
Expanding ESPC
Evaluating ESPC5
https://betterbuildingssolutioncenter.energy.gov/energy-savings-performance-contracting-espc-toolkit
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Guidelines for M&V -- Overview of Economic Impact Analysis Tools
Benchmark Sheets State & Local Governments K-12 Schools Colleges & Universities Public Housing
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Evaluating ESPC Project Results
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Guidelines for ESPC Measurement & Verification
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8U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Webinar: Evaluating ESPC ResultsFEMP M&V Guidelines v4.0Bob Slattery - Oak Ridge National Laboratory (supporting DOE FEMP)Sept 13, 2018
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9U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
FEMP M&V Guideline v4.0
https://betterbuildingssolutioncenter.energy.gov/evaluating-espc
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10U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
M&V Throughout the Federal Contract Process•Acquisition Planning Phase 1
•ESCO Selection 2
•Preliminary Assessment 2
•Notice of Intent to Award 2
•Request for Proposal 3
•Investment-Grade Audit 3
•Proposal 3
•Task Order Award 3
•Final Design and Construction 4
•Project Acceptance 4
•Post-Acceptance Performance Period 5
• Outline of M&V Plan established
• Baselines established per M&V Plan
Government Witnessing
Government Witnessing
Government Witnessing
• Full M&V Plan part of Proposal
• Post Installation Report – M&V per Plan
• Annual M&V Report per M&V Plan
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11U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
DOE FEMP M&V 4.0 Guidance - Structure
• Overview of M&V Implementation– 6 process steps (ex: develop M&V plan,
define baseline, etc.)
• Risk and Responsibility in M&V• Detailed M&V Methods (A, B, C, D)• Selecting an M&V Approach
– Key considerations, cost/rigor, uncertainty
• Guidance For Specific ECMs – 19 ECM examples
• Appendix– Federal Requirements– M&V Plan Outline– Post-Installation Report Outline– Annual Report Outline
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12U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
FEMP v4.0:1. Condenses the document, moving many auxiliary sections to stand-alone documents
available on the FEMP website, federal requirements moved to appendix – i.e. Guidance no longer specific to federal projects.
2. Strengthens Option A by defaulting to annual measurement of a key parameter (draws on IPMVP concept of “Operational Verification” – ensure performance to intended function)
3. Refocuses Option C to stress short-term applicability (IPMVP acknowledges challenge of facility changes, silent on alternate options in performance period)
4. Clarifies Option D approach in performance period - revert to other M&V options (More aligned with IPMVP)
5. Adds M&V approaches for 19 ECM examples (IPMVP has 12 examples in 2012 vol. 1)6. Modifies M&V annual report template for added transparency in documenting
customer impacts to savings7. Integrates customer “witnessing” requirements throughout M&V process
M&V v4.0: Changes from v3.0 & IPMVP alignment
FEMP M&V Guideline 4.0 and IPMVP continue to be in alignment. Subtle nuances exist
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13U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
•Interest Rates•Construction costs•M&V confidence•Energy-related cost savings•Delays•Major changes in facility
Financial
•Operating Hours•Loads•Weather•User Participation
Operational
•Equipment performance•Operations •Preventative Maintenance•Equipment repair & replacement
Performance
FEMP Risk and Responsibility and Performance (RRPM) Matrix
Addresses 14 risk topics and assigns responsibility for each between contractor and customer
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14U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
DOE FEMP RRPM Example
Template language Agreed Upon Approach
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15U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
• RRPM ensures that important risks are addressed and responsibilities assigned
• Dialog fosters mutual understanding of the deal• RRPM is a key item for review in Preliminary
Assessment (Walk Through Audit)• Use the RRPM to guide final proposal review ―
details in M&V plan and other parts should not conflict with RRPM
• Don’t take a responsibility that your organization can’t handle well!
Lessons Learned on RRPM
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16U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
M&V 4.0: Annual Reporting TemplateFEMP M&V Guidelines v4.0 provides a template for M&V reporting. • Structured to convey all critical project
performance metrics within executive summary– Project background/overview– ECM descriptions– ECM proposed and verified savings– Customer impacts to savings– Performance / O&M issues summary
• Body of report goes into detail by each ECM– M&V approach– M&V activities conducted– Calculations– Summary of O&M and R&R (items to be addressed)
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17U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
M&V Reporting: Transparency of Customer Impacts to savings
1.5 Performance and O&M Issues Note effect of operating deficiencies or enhancements on generation of savings. Note effect of maintenance deficiencies on generation of savings. Detail any deficiencies that need to be addressed by ESCO or government in Table E-4.
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18U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Standardized M&V Reporting & Annual Monitoring of Program Performance
Annual Review of M&V Reports• Full accounting of program ”reported” savings from all
active projects in performance period phase• Of 172 M&V reports examined for FY16, projects
reported achieving • 99% of estimated cost savings • 108% of guaranteed cost savings
151 projects above guarantee 7 projects at guarantee
14 projects below guarantee
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19U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Additional tools for ensuring long term integrity of M&V objectives
M&V Witnessing:Guide to Government Witnessing and Review of M&V Activities
M&V Report Review:Reviewing Post-Installation and Annual Reports For Federal ESPC Projects
O&M Verification Guide:How to Determine and Verify O&M Savings in ESPCs
Energy Escalation Rate Tool:Standard for setting energy escalation rates for federal ESPC
M&V Plan Review:Reviewing Measurement and Verification Plans For Federal ESPC Projects
https://www.energy.gov/eere/femp/resources-implementing-federal-energy-savings-performance-contracts
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20U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Bob SlatteryOak Ridge National Laboratory
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21U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
ESPC Project Benchmarking
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ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AREA ENERGY ANALYSIS AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS DIVISION
Benchmarking the Performance of Projects Installed by the U.S. ESCO Industry
Peter LarsenResearch Scientist/Deputy Group Leader
September 13, 2018
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E NE R G Y T E C HNO L O GIE S AR E A E NE R G Y ANAL Y S I S AND E NV I R O NME NT AL I M P ACT S D I V I S I O N
Benchmarking Timeline 3
Before 2013
• 2000s: DOE-WIP funds LBNL to collect ESCO project information—and write reports about interesting project-level trends, statistics, etc.; Partnership with NAESCO
• 2011: DOE-WIP supports creation of project “benchmarking sheets”• 2012: DOE-FEMP and WIP support developing online, standardized ESCO project
development and tracking system (eProject Builder)
2013-14
• 2014: eProject Builder (ePB) Version 1.0 released• 2014: As part of ESPC Accelerator – LBNL and our partners begin collecting
state/local feedback on design, functionality, and performance of eProject Builder
2015 and beyond
• 2015-17: ePB made more flexible for state/local market based on feedback• 2018: NAESCO transitions to ePB to collect project-level data for accreditation• 2018: ePB hits milestone of 500+ projects and 1,000 users trained• 2018: ePB named finalist for R&D 100 Award (“Oscars of Innovation”)• 2019: Planned updates to benchmarking sheets and online statistics
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E NE R G Y T E C HNO L O GIE S AR E A E NE R G Y ANAL Y S I S AND E NV I R O NME NT AL I M P ACT S D I V I S I O N
Benchmarking Sheets (circa 2011) 3
• Created using LBNL/NAESCO database of ESCO projects (predecessor to ePB)
• Range and median of observed values for key project metrics including:
Project installation costAnnual saved energy (kBtu)Annual saved electricity (kWh)Annual % savings relative to baselineSimple payback time
• Six different sheets: Federal Govt, State/Local Govt, K-12 Schools, University/College, Healthcare, Public Housing
• Projects completed from 1990 through 2008
• Part of the U.S. DOE ESPC Toolkit
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E NE R G Y T E C HNO L O GIE S AR E A E NE R G Y ANAL Y S I S AND E NV I R O NME NT AL I M P ACT S D I V I S I O N
Plan for Benchmarking Project Performance
PastData source:LBNL/NAESCO database of projects (1990-2008)Distribution method: PDF files meant to be printed; ESPC Toolkit
Present/Near-termData source:LBNL/NAESCO database of projects (1990-2018)Distribution method: PDF files and online access via ePB and ESPC Toolkit
Future/Long-termData source:eProject BuilderDistribution method:Online access via ePB and hyperlinks provided via ESPC Toolkit (?)
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E NE R G Y T E C HNO L O GIE S AR E A E NE R G Y ANAL Y S I S AND E NV I R O NME NT AL I M P ACT S D I V I S I O N
eProject Builder (ePB) Overview
Secure, online energy project data tracking & reporting system Funded by U.S. DOE: FEMP and WIP Free tool developed/maintained by LBNL Enables ESCOs and their customers to securely:
Preserve, track and report project information (including M&V) in perpetuity
Generate range of reports on portfolio of projects Develop project scenarios using standardized calculations Benchmark proposed projects against historical information Enter and track ESPC, UESC, ESA, and other contract types Be audit-ready
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E NE R G Y T E C HNO L O GIE S AR E A E NE R G Y ANAL Y S I S AND E NV I R O NME NT AL I M P ACT S D I V I S I O N
Overview (continued)
Who is using it? Federal: FEMP ESPC, UESC, ENABLE; Army Corps MATOC State ESPC programs: State Energy Offices/Dept of General
Services ESCOs: free/flexible data archive, easy access for proposals NAESCO Applicants: upload projects for accreditation applications
Why ePB is being offered beyond the federal government? The long game: grease the skids for market/savings growth Standardization and data preservation Enables reliable reporting to stakeholders, ability to tout project
success stories; M&V data holds ESCO and agency staff accountable
Overcome skepticism, smooth transaction costs, and enable market growth
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E NE R G Y T E C HNO L O GIE S AR E A E NE R G Y ANAL Y S I S AND E NV I R O NME NT AL I M P ACT S D I V I S I O N
Overview (continued)
Inputs and database content Collects data at project- and ECM-level Available data includes: Key project dates Financing and guarantee terms; escalation rates Implementation price (i.e., project installation cost) Baseline usage; estimated and guaranteed savings M&V savings over time
Outputs – report and analysis features Project financial and savings schedules Other project-related documents Portfolio-level analysis: data in form of summary tables and graphs M&V savings results – each year and cumulative
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E NE R G Y T E C HNO L O GIE S AR E A E NE R G Y ANAL Y S I S AND E NV I R O NME NT AL I M P ACT S D I V I S I O N
ePB Status
Participation
Contains 552 projects representing implementation costs of $4.9B and cumulative guaranteed savings of $10.6B
397 federal projects (IDIQ, ENABLE, Army Corps, UESC, GSA Area-wide)
155 state/local/educational/commercial/industrial/other
> 1,000 individuals have trained on ePB: agency, ESCO, and facilitator staff
Partners, Requirements, and Endorsements
Required for DOE-FEMP IDIQ Version 3 contracts
Used for DOE Qualified List of ESCOs accreditation process
Required or being used by increasing number of state ESPC programs
Endorsed by Energy Services Coalition; ESC is a key training/outreach partner
Endorsed by NAESCO – ePB required as platform for annual accreditation process
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E NE R G Y T E C HNO L O GIE S AR E A E NE R G Y ANAL Y S I S AND E NV I R O NME NT AL I M P ACT S D I V I S I O N
ePB Benchmarking Page (online)
Benchmarking statistics for different combinations of metrics, market segments, and years
Users query aggregated data from the LBNL/NAESCO database of ~ 6,000 ESCO projects (not projects in ePB)
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E NE R G Y T E C HNO L O GIE S AR E A E NE R G Y ANAL Y S I S AND E NV I R O NME NT AL I M P ACT S D I V I S I O N
Near-term Upgrades to Benchmarking Sheets/ePB 3
•New sheets will incorporate data from projects completed over the past decade (2009-2018).
•PDFs provided via ESPC Toolkit and online access via eProject Builder
•Individual sheet for each of six markets: Federal government, State/Local Government, K-12 Schools, University/College, Healthcare, Public Housing
•Range and median of the following metrics:
Project cost/sq. ft. (without financing)Annual saved energy (kBtu) and electricity (kWh) per sq. ft.Annual % savings relative to baselineSimple payback timeAnnual saved energy (kBtu) per dollar invested—NEW Annual saved electricity (kWh) per dollar invested—NEW
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ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AREA ENERGY ANALYSIS AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS DIVISION
Peter Larsen, PhDEmail: [email protected]: (510) 486-5015
https://eprojectbuilder.lbl.gov/
https://emp.lbl.gov/projects/energy-saving-performance
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33U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Analyzing the Economic Impacts of ESPC Projects
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Economic Impact Analysis: Analytical Approaches
Torsten Kieper, Cadmus
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Why Economic Impacts?
• Enriched perspective of program benefits• Enhanced cost-effectiveness reviews• Positive messaging to stakeholders, regulators, investors, and customers
• Improved resource planning• Demand-Side Management (DSM) within context of multiple resource options
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Model Options
• RIMS II• Static regional input-output multiplier matrix
• IMPLAN• Static regional economic impact model
• REMI PI+• Dynamic regional economic impact and forecasting model
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Regional Input-Output Modeling System II (RIMS II) Multipliers
Benefits
• Ease of use• Cost (low)• Transparency
Limitations
• Accuracy• Granularity/Flexibility• Static economic conditions• Geography (single region)• No time dimension
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IMPLAN
Benefits
• Ease of use• Cost (medium)• Geography (can support multi-
region IO)• Granularity/Flexibility• Transparency
Limitations
• Cost (medium)• Static economic conditions• No time dimension
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REMI PI+
Benefits• Dynamic economic conditions• Geography (multi-region)• More variable levers (econometrics and
general equilibrium models)• Granularity/Flexibility
• REMI has many fewer sectors than IMPLAN (for U.S.). IMPLAN has ~540, REMI has ~140 at most
• Time dimension (regional economic forecast baseline)
• Net impacts – Automatically compares gross impacts to baseline “business as usual” scenario
• E3 is new model designed for assessing environmental policies. Optional Emissions Module with energy consumption forecast and CO2 emissions
Limitations
• Cost ($48,000 CAD for 1 year PI+ subscription for Ontario region)
• Complexity of underlying model equations
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https://www.focusonenergy.com/sites/default/files/Marketing_Resources/FocusOnEnergy_EconomicImpact_Final_0.pdf
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https://www.focusonenergy.com/sites/default/files/WI%20FOE%202015%20to%202016%20Econ%20Impact%20Report-%20Summary-%20Final.pdfhttps://www.focusonenergy.com/sites/default/files/WI%20FOE%202015%20to%202016%20Econ%20Impact%20Report-%20Final.pdf
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Wisconsin Focus on Energy TV Ad
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hq1VBRaI5tg