Key Workforce Challenges Moving from Dumping the Data to Sharing the Story: A Case Study LMI Forum...

Oregon Employment Department

Key Workforce Challenges

Moving from Dumping the Data to Sharing the Story:

A Case Study

LMI Forum

June 8, 2012


Introductory Comments

• Labor market information practitioners sometimes have the reputation of “dumping the data”.– “Here’s the data we have from our core programs. Hope it

meets your needs, because we sure don’t have anything else.”• Clearly, that’s not good enough in today’s world.• But it’s not enough to simply collect more data (vacancy

surveys, benefits surveys, green jobs surveys).• We need to take the next step: to transform the data,

not just into information, but into a complete “story” that makes sense to our core customers.


Pause for Conversation

• Thoughts on this basic premise?


The History of Key Workforce Challenges• Summer 2011: Oregon’s statewide Workforce

Investment Board embarking on strategic planning.• Oregon Research staff wanting to be sure that key

issues were considered and included in the strategic plan.– Started with a blank sheet: “What are the top ten things this

strategic plan should address?”– Did not start with “What data do we have?”– Tufte: “Whatever it takes”.

• Presentation formally unveiled October 2011.– Constantly evolving; 107 slides in generic version.– WIBs, legislative committees, business forums,

Governor’s cabinet, many other groups.


The “Great Eight” Workforce Challenges

• High levels of unemployment and high levels of long-term unemployment.

• Structural changes for some industries.• Slow employment growth.• Businesses struggle to find skilled workers.• Connecting training to jobs.• Younger workers damaged by recession.• Aging workers, baby boomers damaged by recession,

but will eventually retire.• Rural areas face special challenges.


Unemployment remains high. (A big deal.)Many Oregonians have been out of work for a very long time. (A very big deal.)

Challenge #1: Unemployment


There was an average of 188,000 unemployed people in Oregon in 2011. There were nearly six unemployed for each vacancy last fall.

60,000

100,000

140,000

180,000

220,000

260,000

Jan-76 Apr-79 Jul-82 Oct-85 Jan-89 Apr-92 Jul-95 Oct-98 Jan-02 Apr-05 Jul-08 Oct-11

Oregon Total UnemploymentSeasonally Adjusted

May 2009's 230,200 unemployed is an all-time record in Oregon

Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics


Two in five unemployed Oregonians have been without a job for six months or more. Long-term unemployment is a big challenge following the recession.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

Num

ber o

f Une

mpl

oyed

Unemployed 26 weeks or less

Unemployed 27 weeks or longer

The long-term unemployed:64,500 Oregonians in February 2012

36 percent of unemployed population



Oregon has roughly the usual number of “newly” unemployed. Those who can’t find a job quick soon join the ranks of long-term unemployed.

Length Unemployed 2007 2009 2011Less Than 5 Weeks 39,100 52,800 39,5005 to 14 Weeks 34,200 64,100 42,40015 Weeks to 6 Months 12,800 46,200 27,9006 Months - 1 Year 6,500 32,500 21,6001 Year or More 5,600 29,300 57,000Total Unemployed 98,200 224,900 188,400

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

Number of Unemployed in Oregon by Duration(2007, 2009, and 2011 Annual Averages)


Many of Oregon’s unemployed have been looking for work for a long time now.

We might assume they’ll have little problem finding jobs once the economy picks up…

… but that assumption might be wrong.


Some employers may be hesitant to hire applicants who are unemployed…

During the annual conference of the Oregon Employer Council, attendees were asked what reasons, if any, might prevent them from hiring the long-term unemployed. Responses included:

• The long-term unemployed may have a bad attitude and/or lack motivation.

• They may lack interview skills and/or do not properly prepare for an interview.

• In some cases, the laid-off “weren’t the cream of the crop” to begin with.• Their skills may have become stale.• In some cases, they lack soft skills, i.e. time management, self-

confidence, acting as a team player.


…but job seekers can address some of those concerns.

The majority of employers said they would consider hiring the long-term unemployed if they …

• … have the skill set to fill the position.• … were doing something productive - volunteering, attending

school, homemaking - during their period of unemployment• (It was noted that it’s very important the long-term unemployed

note these activities on their resume; otherwise, they don’t get to the interview and don’t have the opportunity to describe what they’ve done)

• … have a reasonable reason as to why they’ve been unemployed.


• Oregon recently passed a law that prohibits employers from advertising for vacancies that limit applicants to people who are not currently unemployed.

• Other states have passed similar laws.

Some employers specifically exclude the unemployed in their job vacancy ads. Policy makers are starting to take notice…


The 2008 recession caused a number of significant structural changes to Oregon’s and the nation’s economies.

Some industries may not see a return to prior levels of employment…

Challenge #2: Structural Changes in the Economy


Nearly all sectors of Oregon’s economy were hurt by the recession. Manufacturing and construction more so than others.

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

Jobs

Los

t....

-22.5%

-13.2%

-8.1%

-14.8%

-10.3%-11.1%

-36.8%

Job losses from each industry's post- 2001 recession peak to recession trough.

Manufacturing and construction have led Oregon's job losses.

-15.5%


Manufacturing added 3,000 jobs since the low point in October 2009. We’re still at the lowest levels since about 1970.

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Em

ploy

men

t

Seasonally Adjusted Employment in OregonManufacturing: 1990 - 2012

Discussion: productivity, profitability, employment


Construction employment is a clear case of a bubble bursting.

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

Construction Employment in Oregon

Construction Employment

Source: Oregon Employment Department, CES 1947-2011


Structural changes are not always gloomy. Health services employment has grown because of structural demographic changes.

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Em

ploy

men

t

Seasonally Adjusted Employment in OregonPrivate Educational and Health Services: 1990 - 2012


Employment growth has been slow, and will continue to be slow in the near future.

Challenge #3: Slow Employment Growth


The country is facing the longest return to pre-recession employment levels since World War II.


Oregon’s job losses were actually worse in the early 1980s, but this recovery could take just as long.

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

% Jo

b Lo

ss fr

om P

eak

Empl

oym

ent

Number of Years from Employment Peak

Oregon Employment Loss by Recession

1948195319571960196919731980199020012007Jun Baseline

Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, June 2012


Job gains since the end of the recession pale in comparison to the job losses during the recession.

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-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12

Oregon's Monthly Job Growth/Declineseasonally adjusted

Employment Low PointFebruary 2010


Roughly two-thirds of businesses expect no change in their employment levels in the next six months, similar to their expectations a year ago.

Increase11%

No change64%

Decrease14%

Don't know11%

Expected Change in Number of Employees Over Next Six Months

Source: Oregon Future Hiring Survey, Fall 2011

Why hire?- Turnover – 19%- Seasonal – 9%- Expansion – 8%- Restoration – 3%


Why aren’t they hiring?


Which industries are expected to grow the most from 2010 to 2020?


• It’s likely that 2010 was the "bottom." • Projections from the bottom of a recession tend to

have higher than average growth rates.• Seven out of 10 industry super-sectors are projected

to return to their pre-recession peaks by the end of the decade.

• Construction, Manufacturing, and Financial activities will grow; but are not projected to recover all of the jobs lost during the recession over the next 10 years.

• Health care is projected to grow faster and add more jobs than any other major industry in the coming years.

Here’s the broad overview of Oregon’s 2010-2020 employment projections.


Despite high unemployment, businesses sometimes struggle to find the qualified workers they need.

Challenge #4: Businesses Struggling to Find Workers


Available vacancies are still few compared to the number of unemployed.

October 2011:• 175,100

unemployed• 30,400 total

vacancies

Registered with OED:• 204,000 active job

seekers• 7,300 vacancies in

iMatchSkills

How can businesses be struggling to find workers?

47,888

18,242

29,974 30,384

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

May 2008 Spring 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011

Num

ber o

f Vac

anci

es

Vacancies Returned, But Are Still Below Pre-Recession Levels,Oregon Job Vacancies


An article by Reuters may explain why:• The manufacturing workforce is older, and facing more

retirements.• There are fewer science, technology, engineering and

math majors than in previous years.• College graduates are discouraged from pursuing

manufacturing jobs.• There’s an ongoing transition from medium-skilled,

repetitive tasks to more highly-skilled, high-technology work.

• Employers cite a disconnect between outdated vocational training and what’s required on the job.

Despite declining employment over the past few decades, manufacturers are saying they’re having a hard time finding skilled workers.


Only 5 percent of Oregon businesses said “lack of qualified workers” was a barrier to their hiring, in Fall 2011.

On the other hand …


• “With an abundance of workers to choose from, employers are demanding more of job candidates …”

• “… to get a job, you have to have that job already.”• “… drop the idea of finding perfect candidates and look for people who could do

the job with a bit of training and practice.”• “Some of the complaints … boil down to … employers can’t get candidates to

accept jobs at the wages offered.”• “There are plenty of people out there who could step into the jobs being

offered.”• The way forward:

– Work with education providers– Bring back aspects of apprenticeship (pay less while mastering the craft)– Promote from within– Organize work to give employees opportunities to learn new skills

Dr. Peter Capelli, Wharton’s Center for Human Resources


This is a complex question, some possible answers are…• Lack of worker mobility• Differing attitudes across generations• Businesses’ attitudes toward workers• Structural changes in an industry and overall economy• Not enough graduates in high-demand fields• Long-term unemployment may degrade skills

Employment Department starting targeted skills surveys in 2012.

With so many unemployed people, how can there be a gap between applicant qualifications and the education and skills employers want?


It’s essential that workforce-related training be very tailored towards businesses’ actual needs.

Challenge #5: Connecting Training to Workforce Needs


CompletersBusiness, Management, Marketing, And Related Support Services 10,235 Health Professions And Related Clinical Sciences 8,997 Liberal Arts And Sciences, General Studies And Humanities 5,271 Education 5,071 Construction Trades 2,945 Personal And Culinary Services 2,363 Social Sciences 2,360 Visual And Performing Arts 1,590 Psychology 1,382 Biological And Biomedical Sciences 1,162 Mechanic And Repair Technologies/Technicians 1,107 Engineering 1,101 Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies 1,000 English Language And Literature/Letters 911 Computer And Information Sciences And Support Services 902 Transportation And Materials Moving 888 Communication, Journalism, And Related Programs 807 Engineering Technologies/Technicians 803 Security And Protective Services 762 Public Administration And Social Service Professions 724 Legal Professions And Studies 687 Family And Consumer Sciences/Human Sciences 676 Foreign Languages, Literatures, And Linguistics 633 Natural Resources And Conservation 606 Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, And Related Sciences 571 History 504

Source: IPEDS, ODE Private Career Schools, BOLI, Job Corps

Top 2009-2010 Completers by Program (University, Community College, Apprenticeship, Job Corps, and Private Career School)

Oregon’s education and training system is preparing 57,000 people each year, up from 52,000 in 2007-2008.


Focusing primarily on the competitive education requirements …Oregon’s current population appears to have broadly sufficient levels of education for the jobs projected in 2020.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Population 25 and Over (ACS data)

Minimum Education Requirement

Competitive Education Requirement

Education Requirements of Oregon Jobs (2020)and Education Status of Oregon Population (2006-10)

Bachelor's Degree or Higher

Associate or Postsecondary

Related Work Experience

Long-term On-the-Job Training

Moderate-term On-the-Job Training

Short-term On-the-Job Training

High School

No High School Diploma


• Simply having about the right number of bachelor’s degrees (for example) does not imply that we have the right number of people with the right bachelor’s degrees.

• We know that some businesses struggle to find workers with the right technical and workplace skills to meet their needs, even in tough economic times.

• We know that in normal economic times, businesses are struggling to find workers with the right “soft skills” (or, as some workforce professionals describe them, “essential workplace skills”) to meet their needs.

On the surface it looks like Oregon is producing enough graduates to meet the demands of employers. Below the surface, things become more complicated?


Getting a slow start to their career leads to: – Lower wages, slower wage increases, and

lower lifetime earnings– Slower career progression– Less prepared to deal with unemployment – A career path they never knew they would be

on

Challenge #6: Younger Workers Damaged by Recession


Youth unemployment rates reached record highs during the recession. The effects could linger throughout their careers.

0%

5%

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15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Une

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ate

Unemployment Rates High for Younger Workers,Oregon

16 to 19 20 to 24 All Ages (16+)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey


Graduating from college during a recession may result in lower long-term earnings

According to a recent National Bureau of Economic Research article:

• Field of study matters. Those that majored in high-skill fields, such engineering or chemistry, were able to close the wage gap more quickly

• The least-advantaged graduates, including those majoring in humanities and those lacking work experience, may lose 8 percent of cumulated earnings in their first 10 years of employment

• A graduate’s first job strongly impacts long-term employment prospects , as low-paying firms reduce labor market mobility


• Percent of men age 25 to 34 living with parents:2005 = 14%2011 = 19%

• Percent of women age 25 to 34 living with parents:2005 = 8%2011 = 10%

• This trend began before the recession and has continued beyond it.

Living with their parents is one way to get by.


Roughly one-half the number of teenagers were getting hired during the last few summers.

0

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20,000

30,000

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70,000

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Teen Hiring Halved In Recession, Accelerating a Downward TrendOregon, Third Quarter New Hires Ages 14-18

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics


The aging workforce and baby boom retirements are almost forgotten issues…but will return as significant challenges.

Challenge #7: Aging Workforce and Looming Retirements


0

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600

16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65+

Thou

sand

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Oregon's Aging Population

1990 2000 2010

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Will Oregon have enough workers? There seems to be a steady supply of younger people…


The aging workforce means that more openings will be from replacements than from growth.

0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Nonclassifiable

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

Construction and Extraction

Production

Transportation and Material Moving

Management, Business, and Financial

Health Care

Sales and Related

Professional and Related

Office and Administrative Support

Service

Oregon Projected Occupational Openings 2010 - 2020

Growth OpeningsReplacement Openings


Area

Number of Workers 55

and OverPercent of

All Ages Area

Number of Workers 55

and OverPercent of

All AgesOregon 325,355 21%Wheeler 93 34% Linn 8,900 23%Lincoln 4,474 28% Josephine 5,022 23%Curry 1,739 28% Klamath 4,924 23%Wallowa 673 27% Benton 7,368 22%Grant 539 27% Lane 29,674 22%Gilliam 192 26% Marion 29,256 22%Coos 5,136 26% Jackson 17,390 22%Lake 517 25% Union 2,158 22%Tillamook 1,936 25% Columbia 1,983 22%Clatsop 3,662 25% Yamhill 6,216 22%Wasco 2,182 25% Malheur 3,198 21%Sherman 128 24% Polk 3,489 21%Harney 517 24% Umatilla 6,005 21%Morrow 871 24% Hood River 2,417 21%Jefferson 1,378 24% Clackamas 28,878 21%Douglas 7,776 24% Multnomah 82,584 20%Baker 1,271 24% Deschutes 10,681 19%Crook 1,207 23% Washington 40,924 18%

Rural Counties Have Higher Shares of Workers 55 and Over

Average for 3rd Quarter 2010 and prior three quarters.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics

At least one in five Oregon workers probably wants to retire within the next 10 years.


All or most of the things we’ve talked about so far … • Persistent unemployment• Structural changes in the economy• Slow employment growth• Businesses struggling to find workers• Connecting training to workforce needs• Younger workers damaged by recession• Aging workforce and looming retirements … are magnified in rural areas.

Challenge #8: Oregon’s Rural Areas Face Special Challenges


Persistently high unemployment is even higher in rural areas.

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2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

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14.0

Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12

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Oregon Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

Non-MetroBend, Corvallis, Euguene, Medford and SalemPortland



Job growth was faster in Oregon’s metro areas over the last 20 years.

80

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120

140

160

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Non

farm

Pay

roll

Empl

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ndex

(199

0=10

0)

Nonfarm Employment Index for Non-Metro Oregon, Portland, and Other Metro Counties Combined

Source: Current Employment Statistics

Non-metro Oregon

Bend, Corvallis, Eugene, Medford, and Salem

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro


Job growth is expected to be slower in rural areas over the next decade.


In 1979 Portland (and the Oregon counties that would later be added to the MSA) accounted for half of all manufacturing jobs.

Portland45%

Future Portland*4%

Salem7%

Eugene9%

Future Bend, Corvallis, andMedford MSAs

7%

Non MSA28%

Oregon Manufacturing Employment by Urban Area,1979

* Columbia and Yamhill counties


By June 2011, Portland accounted for two of every three manufacturing jobs in the state.

Portland MSA65%

Eugene MSA7%

Salem MSA7%

Medford MSA4%

Bend MSA2%

Corvallis MSA2%

Non MSA13%

Oregon Manufacturing Employment by Urban Area, June 2011


LAKE

HARNEY

MALHEUR

LANE

KLAMATH

GRANT

DOUGLAS

LINN

BAKER

CROOK

UMATILLA

WASCO

UNION

WALLOWA

COOS

JACKSONCURRY

DESCHUTES

MORROW

WHEELER

GILLIAM

CLACKAMAS

JEFFERSON

MARION

JOSEPHINE

POLK

LINCOLN

CLATSOP

YAMHILL

BENTON

TILLAMOOK

SHERMAN

COLUMBIA

WASHINGTONHOOD RIVERMULTNOMAH

Share of County WorkforceAge 55 and Over

Percent of All Ages18%-20%

21%-22%

23%-24%

25%-34%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics Average for 3rd Quarter 2010 and prior three quarters.

At least one in four workers is over 55 in some coastal and rural counties.


Coastal and eastern counties are losing their younger people.Youth Population Change by County Ages 15-24, 2000-2010 Percent Change

Percent Change-21.6% to -7.0%-6.9% to 0%0% to 7.7%7.8% to 29.1%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010

7.8%

Oregon Average


Oregon’s metro counties have three times the national “under 18” population growth rate since 1980, while it declined in rural counties.

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

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90%

U.S. Oregon OR Metro Counties OR Rural Counties

1980-2010 Change in Population by Age Categories

Under 18

18 to 64

65 and Over

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Some rural demographic trends are truly disheartening …

• Eight of Oregon’s 36 counties lost population between 2000 and 2010.– Sherman, Wheeler, Grant, Baker, Wallowa, Harney, Malheur, Gilliam

• Fourteen of Oregon’s counties have fewer young people today than they had ten years ago. – Grant, Wallowa, Sherman, Wheeler, Gilliam, Crook, Malheur, Tillamook, Lincoln, Baker,

Union, Morrow, Clatsop, Coos.

• In six counties, the median age is 50 or older.– Lincoln, Gilliam, Grant, Wallowa, Wheeler, Curry.


Conversation / Discussion

• Comments/input on the Key Workforce Challenges presentation.

• Have others developed similar “tell the story” presentations or reports?

• What might be the top ten things our customers need us to inform them about?

• Remember the principle: “Whatever it takes.”


Graham Slater, Research AdministratorOregon Employment Department

[email protected] (503) 947-1212

To find this presentation online, go towww.QualityInfo.org

and use the search box to look up my name

Join the conversation:OregonEmployment.blogspot.com

Twitter @OrEmployment

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.qualityinfo.org/

Key Workforce Challenges Moving from Dumping the Data to Sharing the Story: A Case Study LMI Forum...

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