Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100....

19
Key Transport Figures  2018 KiM | Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis

Transcript of Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100....

Page 1: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Kennisinstituut voor Mobiliteitsbeleid | KiM

Key Transport Figures 2018KiM | Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis

Page 2: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

ContentsReader’s Guide From Mobility Report to Key Transport Figures in 2018 3

Key Transport Figures 2018 4 Passenger transport 5 Freight transport 5 Accessibility 6 Traffic Safety 6 Environment1 6

Explanation Passenger Transport 7

Explanation Freight Transport 8

Explanation Accessibility 9

Explanation Traffic Safety and the Environment 10

Outlook 2018 – 2023 11

Sharp increase in hours of lost travel time due to steady growth of road traffic 12

Increasing passenger kilometres via rail 14

Continued growth of air transport 15

Freight transport growth despite rising uncertainties 17

Colophon 18

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 2

Page 3: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Reader’s Guide From Mobility Report to Key Transport Figures in 2018

The KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis has once again outlined the annual key developments in transport in the Netherlands. This year however that assessment is in the form of Key Transport Figures, which also routinely serve as the foundation of our Mobility Report. The Key Transport Figures 2018 incorporates the data series used in the most recent Mobility Report and supplements them with the latest figures from the field of transport in 2017.

The transport figures reveal how car traffic has grown, how the use of public transport and air transport has developed, whether people walk or cycle more frequently, whether traffic congestion and pressures are more or less problematic, and which developments play roles in freight transport. The Key Transport Figures 2018 report briefly explains the developments in passenger transport, freight transport, accessibility, traffic safety and the environment, while also outlining how transport is expected to develop over the medium-term: 2018-2023.

The Key Transport Figures 2018 report is more compact than the Mobility Report of previous years. The comprehensive Mobility Report that one is accustomed to will now be published every other year. In the intervening years, the Key Transport Figures offer an insightful overview of the latest figures and expected medium-term developments. Descriptions of the methods and data series used are found in an appendix on our website. Please refer to the Mobility Report 2017 for more detailed explanations of the figures.

The full version of the Mobility Report will be published in 2019, wherein we will both outline and explain how the figures developed.

Reader’s Guide From Mobility Report to Key Transport Figures in 2018

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 3

Page 4: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Key Transport Figures 2018

Key Transport Figures 2018

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 4

Page 5: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Passenger transport Source 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20174

Number of passenger cars (in million)1

CBS 7.0 7.6 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2

Transport in the Netherlands (in billion passenger kilometres)2

MON/OViN 182.5 183.5 185.5 185.5 185.5 186.0 186.5 188.0 188.5

Car driver2 MON/OViN 91.5 94.5 96.5 96.5 96.0 97.0 97.0 97.5 98.0

Car passenger2 MON/OViN 45.5 42.0 41.5 41.5 41.0 40.5 40.5 40.5 40.0

Public Transport2-3 MON/OViN 22.5 23.0 23.0 23.5 23.5 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.0

Cycling2 MON/OViN 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.5 15.5 15.5

Mopeds2 MON/OViN 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Walking2 MON/OViN 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Other2 MON/OViN 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Train3 NS, KpVV, estimate KiM

15.2 17.1 17.6 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.0

Bus, tram, metro3, 5 CROW/KpVV - 6.7 7.0 - - 5.2 5.4 5.5 n/a6

Air travel (in million passenger movements at Dutch airports)

CBS 46.5 48.6 53.9 55.7 58.0 60.9 64.6 70.3 76.2

Air travel (in billion passenger-kilometres Dutch people)

Schiphol9/CBS/ KiM

56.2 61.6 65.5 67.3 67.7 73.2 74.5 80.7 87.1

Freight transport Source 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20154 20164 20174

Freight transport on Dutch ter-ritory (in billion tonne-kilometres)

CBS/KiM 122.3 118.6 121.1 120.5 125.1 126.5 126.8 130.7 130.8

Road (excluding delivery vans) CBS/KiM 58.7 54.1 54.8 52.8 56.2 56.8 57.2 60.3 60.4

Inland Waterways CBS 43.1 46.6 47.3 47.5 48.6 49.4 48.5 48.8 49.0

Railways CBS 5.9 5.9 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.6 6.5

Pipelines CBS/KiM 14.6 12.0 12.6 14.1 14.3 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.0

Freight transport on Dutch territory (in million tonnes)

CBS 1717.0 1807.6 1830.0 1824.1 1834.5 1867.1 1886.2 1918.4 1948.4

of which air cargo handling CBS 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8

of which maritime cargo handling

Port- authorities

486.7 568.0 577.5 584.7 579.2 588.9 610.3 607.0 617.5

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 5

Page 6: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Accessibility Source 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20174

Trunk road network travel (in  billion vehicle kilometres)

RWS-WVL 60.4 62.8 64.8 64.5 65.0 66.3 67.8 69.9 71.1

Travel time lost through congestion and delay on trunk road network (index 2010=100)

KiM 85 100 82 70 65 69 85 93 96

Journey time on trunk road network (index 2010=100)

KiM 96 100 101 100 100 103 108 111 112

Unreliability of journey times on trunk road network (index 2010=100)

KiM 93 100 84 77 74 78 92 99 105

Traffic Safety Source 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Traffic fatalities (amount) CBS/RWS-WVL

817 640 661 650 570 570 621 629 613

Seriously injured casualties (amount)6

SWOV 16.000 19.100 19.700 19.500 18.800 20.700 21.300 21.400 n/a

Environment1 Source 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20174

Total road traffic (in billion vehicle kilometres)

CBS 128.3 132.4 132.8 132.4 131.8 132.2 134.1 137.7 140.8

Emissions CO2 by road vehicles (IPCC) (in billion kilogrammes)

CBS 33.8 32.9 32.9 31.4 30.6 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.7

Emissions NOx by road vehicles (in million kilogrammes)

CBS 130.6 107.1 101.9 95.7 88.4 81.7 77.7 74.2 70.3

Emissions PM107 by road vehicles (millions kilogrammes)

CBS 8.6 6.5 6.1 5.6 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.2

Emissions NMVOC8 by road vehicles (in million kilogrammes)

CBS 39.6 32.0 30.9 29.5 28.5 27.1 26.4 26.2 26.0

The Key Transport Figures in the table pertain to the territory of the Netherlands, with the exception of the air transport passenger kilometres.

1 Situation as of 1 January of the year in question.2 Because this pertains to a sample, the annual transport figures contain a statistical uncertainty, which has steadily increased over the past 15 years as the

(MON/OViN) data collection’s sample size has decreased. The figures indicate trends; they are not hard numbers from year to year. KiM has redetermined the developments and trends in transport based on the latest figures (including a revision of the OViN files from 2010 to 2012). The results differ from other transport data, such as that published by Statistics Netherlands at http://cbs.statline.nl. For more information about the nature and extent of these differences, please refer to the web appendix: Key Transport Figures 2018, Passenger Transport: Research of Trips in the Netherlands data (in Dutch language).

3 Because the data sources differ, the total figure for 'public transport' is not equal to the sum of the individual figures for 'train' and 'bus, tram, metro'. To ascertain the modal split for total mobility, KiM uses MON/OViN, the only source that measures uniformly across all transport modes and is subsequently countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they are more accurate for this purpose.

4 Italics: provisional figures.5 No data available for 2012 and 2013.6 Data for 2017 not yet available at time of publication of these Key Transport Figures.7 PM10 = suspended particles smaller than 10 micrometres; this pertains to both combustion particles and particles from tire, brake and road surface wear.8 NMVOC = non-methane volatile organic compounds.9 Calculations based on Continuous Research Amsterdam Airport Schiphol 2017 data.

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 6

Page 7: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Explanation Passenger Transport

• In 2017 car, bicycle and public transport (PT) use developed in line with the long-term trends forecasted for 2005 and beyond.

• In terms of total mobility, the modal splits for the various transport modes have consequently remained essentially unchanged.

• The number of passenger kilometres travelled as car driver in 2017 will also experience modest growth, which is in line with the average annual quarter percent growth rate occurring since 2012.

• Total car use (as driver and passenger) stabilised after 2011: the continuing increase in passenger kilometres as car driver is equal to the overall decrease in number of car passengers.

• In 2017 train use via NS Dutch Railways amounted to more than 18 billion passenger kilometres, an increase of 150 million (0.8 percent) compared to 2016. At present no figures pertaining to train use are available from the other Dutch rail transport companies; however, KiM assumes their growth rates to be equal to that of NS Dutch Railways. Total train use in 2017 therefore amounted to more than 19 billion passenger kilometres.

• Of the total kilometres travelled by bicycles, e-bikes accounted for 18 percent. The majority of e-cycling kilometres is attributed to Dutch people aged 65+; however, use of e-bikes is particularly increasing among people younger than age 65.

• Air transport from/to the Netherlands continued to experience strong growth in 2017. All Dutch airports combined handled 76.2 million passengers in 2017, with Amsterdam Airport Schiphol accounting for 68.4 million, which to date is the most passengers that airport has ever handled in a single year.

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 7

Page 8: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Explanation Freight Transport

• In 2017 freight transport increased by 1.6 percent to 1.95 billion tons, its highest-ever level.

• International transport particularly increased in 2017. Notably, international outbound transport by land decreased by 0.9 percent, from 356 million tons in 2016 to 353 million tons in 2017, a decrease due to the decline in rail transport (less coal transit) and pipelines (less export of natural gas).

• In addition, international inbound transport by land increased by 6.4 percent in 2017. International inbound transport increased across all transport modes.

• The modal split for the various transport modes remained essentially unchanged in 2017. Compared to 2005, road transport’s modal share decreased, while sea-shipping’s increased.

• In 2017 the total transhipment of goods at Dutch ports – measured in tonnes lifted – increased from 607 to 617 million tonnes, conforming to the long-term trend. The share of transhipments for Dutch ports in the Hamburg-Le Havre range decreased slightly, from 47.9 percent in 2016 to 47.5 percent in 2017.

• The transhipment of containers at the Port of Rotterdam set a new record in 2017, increasing from 12.4 to 13.7 million twenty feet equivalent units (TEU). The Port of Rotterdam’s share in the Hamburg-Le Havre range was above 31 percent.

• For the hinterland transport of containers, sea-sea transhipment experienced strong growth in 2017, accounting for 4.9 of the 13.7 million TEU transhipped at the Port of Rotterdam. Container transport by road, rail and inland waterway shipping from/to the Port of Rotterdam also increased, from 8.3 million to 8.8 million TEU.

• As in previous years, airborne freight continued to increase in 2017, reaching the current historic high of 1.8 million tons.

Development of freight transport modal split per transport mode (in tonnage).inner ring: 2005;middle ring: 2016;outer ring 2017.

2016: 1,918 million tons2017: 1,948 million tons (+ 1.6%)

total million tons2005 1.7172016 1.9182017 1.948

103 –> 108+4.3%in transit

198 –> 211+6.4%inbound transportby land

outbound transportby land356 –> 353+0.9%

domestictransport

652 –> 658+0.8%

190 –> 195+2.7%

outbound transportby sea and air

inbound transportby sea and air

418 –> 424+1.3%

sea-shipping

inland waterway shipping

road transport

rail transport

pipelines

air transport

32%32%

29%

19%19%

19%

41%40%

43%

2%6%

7%

7% 0%

0%

0%

2%

2%

2016 20172016: 1,918 million tons2017: 1,948 million tons (+ 1.6%)

total million tons2005 1.7172016 1.9182017 1.948

103 –> 108+4.3%in transit

198 –> 211+6.4%inbound transportby land

outbound transportby land356 –> 353+0.9%

domestictransport

652 –> 658+0.8%

190 –> 195+2.7%

outbound transportby sea and air

inbound transportby sea and air

418 –> 424+1.3%

sea-shipping

inland waterway shipping

road transport

rail transport

pipelines

air transport

32%32%

29%

19%19%

19%

41%40%

43%

2%6%

7%

7% 0%

0%

0%

2%

2%

2016 2017

2016: 1,918 million tons2017: 1,948 million tons (+ 1.6%)

total million tons2005 1.7172016 1.9182017 1.948

103 –> 108+4.3%in transit

198 –> 211+6.4%inbound transportby land

outbound transportby land356 –> 353+0.9%

domestictransport

652 –> 658+0.8%

190 –> 195+2.7%

outbound transportby sea and air

inbound transportby sea and air

418 –> 424+1.3%

sea-shipping

inland waterway shipping

road transport

rail transport

pipelines

air transport

32%32%

29%

19%19%

19%

41%40%

43%

2%6%

7%

7% 0%

0%

0%

2%

2%

2016 2017

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 8

Page 9: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Explanation Accessibility

• Hours of delay on the trunk road network increased by 3.2 percent in 2017, as compared to 2016, while traffic volumes on this road network increased by 1.7 percent. Hours of delay in 2017 thereby remained 7.7 percent below the historic peak reached in 2008 (index number 104 if 2010 = 100). Of note is the fact that the trunk road network currently handles 12 percent more traffic than in 2008.

• The total trip time on the trunk road network (the total number of hours that vehicles were on the road) increased slightly (0.9 percent) compared to 2016. Unreliability increased by 6.1 percent in 2017, as compared to 2016.

• The proximity of residences to places of employment has increased since 2008, due to the population being concentrated in the Randstad (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-The Hague-Utrecht conurbation) and major cities therein. A key part of this growth occurred on the outskirts of cities, thereby partially reducing the proximity. Over the longer 2005-2016 period, the proximity of residences to places of employment increased by approximately 3 percent (source: Infrastructure and Spatial Planning Monitor - 'Monitor infrastructuur en Ruimte 2018: Zicht op de effecten van de Structuurvisie Infrastructuur en Ruimte' – in Dutch language only) ; PBL, 2018).

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

unreliability of trip times on the trunk road network (index 2010 = 100)

trip times on the trunk road network (index 2010 = 100)

hours of delay due to traffic congestion and delays (index 2010 = 100)

2017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005

Development 'hours of delay', 'unreliability' and 'trip times' on the trunk road network (index number 2010 = 100)

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 9

Page 10: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Explanation Traffic Safety and the Environment

• The number of traffic fatalities decreased from 629 in 2016 to 613 in 2017. The number of people seriously injured in traffic accidents increased slightly in 2016, although this increase was less pronounced than in previous years. No data are available yet pertaining to numbers of people seriously injured in traffic accidents in 2017.

• According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) internationally recognized calculation method, CO2 emissions from road traffic increased slightly in 2017 compared to 2016 (+2 percent). These are preliminary figures. This increase pertains to the emissions of road transport fossil fuels refuelled on Dutch territory, regardless of where the fuel was subsequently used for driving.

• Another method, which assesses the actual CO2 emissions of road vehicles operating on Dutch territory, is a better indicator of transport performance and the composition of the vehicle fleet operating on Dutch territory. According to this measurement method, CO2 emissions from road traffic increased by 2 percent in 2017. This increase was primarily due to the fact that the number of road kilometres for gasoline-fuelled cars increased (+3 percent in 2017, as compared to 2016), while these cars’ efficiency (average CO2 emissions per kilometre) remained unchanged. The number of truck kilometres also increased (+2 percent), while the trucks’ average efficiency declined slightly (+2 percent CO2/km). These are also preliminary figures.

• Road traffic emissions of NOx and PM10 continued to decline in 2017. This decrease for both substances was primarily attributed to cleaner trucks and delivery vans; their average emissions per driven kilometre decreased considerably. Hence, between 2016 and 2017, the average NOx emissions per kilometre for trucks decreased by 13 percent, and for delivery vans by 6 percent.

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 10

Page 11: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Outlook 2018 – 2023

Outlook 2018 – 2023

• Sharp increase in lost travel time due to steady growth of road traffic.

• Increasing passenger kilometres via rail.

• Continued growth of air transport.

• Freight transport growth despite rising uncertainties.

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 11

Page 12: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Sharp increase in hours of lost travel time due to steady growth of road traffic

• In 2017 traffic congestion increased slightly more than did road traffic on the trunk road network. And since March 2018, traffic congestion has seemingly continued to increase more than road traffic. As of end of August 2018, traffic volume on the trunk road network was 1.4 percent above the level recorded at the end of 2017, and traffic congestion 5.1 percent above the level recorded at the end of 2017.

• Based on the actual development through August 2018, KiM estimates that road traffic will increase by 1.7 percent in 2018, and vehicle hours of delay by 7.3 percent. KiM expects traffic congestion to increase by 7.0 percent in 2019.

• According to the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Analysis, the Dutch economy will grow by 2.8 percent in 2018. Slightly lower economic growth of 2.6 percent is forecasted for 2019. Higher fuel prices are expected to partially impede road traffic’s growth in 2018, although real fuel prices are expected to decrease again in 2019, resulting in an expected 2.2 percent increase in road traffic on the trunk road network in 2019. For the 2020-2023 period, road traffic is expected to grow by an average of 1.5 percent per year. Compared to 2017, 10 percent more vehicle kilometres will be driven on the trunk road network by 2023. Total road traffic will experience slightly less growth of 8 percent between 2017 and 2023. For an explanation of this method and the assumptions, please refer to the web

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

realised

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

realised

estimate KiM

’23’19’18’15’10’05

estimate KiM

’23’19’18’15’10’05

Development of road traffic (in billions vehicle kilometres: left) and traffic congestion (in millions lost vehicle hours: right) on the trunk road network in the near future. Source: KiM/RWS.

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 12

Page 13: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

appendix: Key Transport Figures 2018: Additional explanatory data and methodology for ‘Sharp increase in hours of delay due to steady growth of road traffic’ (in Dutch: “Reistijdverlies loopt de komende Jaren fors op bij gestage toename wegvervoer. Nadere toelichting data en methodiek”).

• Expansions of road capacity through 2023 will only partly compensate for road traffic’s expected growth. Consequently, lost travel time could increase by a total of 35 percent compared to 2017. However, because traffic congestion figures can sharply fluctuate, this growth could also be a few percentage points higher or lower.

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 13

Page 14: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Increasing passenger kilometres via rail

• KiM expects the recent annual increases in train passenger kilometres to continue in the coming years: a 14 percent increase from 2017 to 2023. The primary driver of this growth is the expectation that the train product will continue to improve in future. If train passengers annually expend ¾ percent less effort and time (the generalised train travel costs), the number of train passenger kilometres is expected to increase by 1.1 percent annually. Moreover, population and real income growth will each generate an average growth rate of 0.4 percent per year. Increased traffic congestion on the trunk road network will also contribute slightly to the growth in train passenger kilometres.

• Public transport via bus, tram and metro is less dynamic than via rail. There is no set policy in place to achieve large-scale quality improvements for bus, tram and metro; consequently, we estimate passenger kilometres to increase by 6 percent from 2017 to 2023. Population and real income growth will each contribute 0.5 percent per year on average to the increase in passenger kilometres via bus, tram and metro.

• These medium-term public transport estimates were compiled using the National Model System (LMS) elasticities for various key drivers, including population, income, trip time and costs, as well as traffic congestion on the trunk road network. For an explanation of this method and the assumptions, please refer to the web appendix: Key Transport Figures 2018, additional explanatory data and the methodology for ‘Increasing passenger kilometres via rail’ (in Dutch: “Steeds meer reizigers op het spoor. Nadere toelichting data en methodiek.”).

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

estimated BTMestimated train

’23’22’21’20’19’18’17’16’15’14’13’12’11’10’09’08’07’06’05

realised BTMrealised train

Development of train use and use of bus, tram and metro (BTM) in the near future (in billions passenger kilometres). Source: KiM.

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 14

Page 15: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Continued growth of air transport

• Air transport continues to grow, as evidenced by the figures for passenger numbers at Dutch airports in the first eight months of 2018. These months saw significant increases, both in terms of European and intercontinental connections. Based on this development, KiM estimates Amsterdam Airport Schiphol’s 2018 growth at 4 percent, meaning by the end of 2018 total passenger movements will exceed 71 million. For 2018, KiM expects 10 percent growth for all regional airports. The total number of passenger movements at Dutch airports will therefore reach nearly 80 million by 2018.

• For 2019, KiM expects a 2.6 percent increase in passenger movements at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol and regional airports. Hence, the total number of passenger movements at Dutch airports is expected to increase to around 82 million.

• For 2023, KiM expects passenger movements to increase to nearly 81 million at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, and to more than 92 million for the entire Netherlands (see web appendix Key Transport Figures 2018: methodology for future development of air passengers in ‘Continued Growth of Air Transport’, in Dutch: “Voortgaande groei luchtvaart. Methodiek toekomstige ontwikkeling luchtvaartpassagiers”).

• The prognostication method does not take into account Amsterdam Airport Schiphol’s established capacity ceiling policy. Increasing air traffic at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is expected to exceed that capacity ceiling. When this will transpire depends on the sizes of the operating aircraft and their occupancy rates, among other factors.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

The Netherlands expected Amsterdam Airport Schiphol expected

'23'22'21'20'19'18'17'16'15'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05

The Netherlands realised Amsterdam Airport Schiphol realised Regional airports expectedRegional airports realised

Development in passenger numbers (in millions of passenger movements) at Dutch airports, without taking into account the capacity-limiting measures at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. Source: KiM.

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 15

Page 16: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

• Passenger numbers per aircraft at Eindhoven Airport have risen sharply in recent years. The number of flights could still remain below the capacity ceiling of 43,000 flights. In the first half of 2018 the average number of passengers per aircraft increased to nearly 170, as compared to 150 in 2015. In recent years, passenger numbers per flight at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport have increased by 2 percent per year on average.

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 16

Page 17: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Freight transport growth despite rising uncertainties

• For the 2018-2023 period, KiM expects 1.5 percent average annual growth in the weight carried in domestic freight and 1.2 percent average annual growth for international transport, resulting in an increase of 10 and 8 percent respectively from 2017 to 2023.

• Road transport’s performance in terms of loaded tonne-kilometres is expected to experience the strongest growth from 2017 to 2023, at 1.9 percent per year on average. Rail transport’s expected grow will be 1.1 percent per year on average, and inland waterway shipping 0.9 percent per year on average. Due to the impact of energy transition and reductions in natural gas extraction, international pipeline transport is expected to decrease by 1.2 percent per year on average.

• Due to the expected growth in relevant world trade, intercontinental sea and air transport could increase by a total of 9 and 29 percent, respectively, from 2017 to 2023. For air freight the question is whether such growth can be achieved given the capacity ceiling set for flights operating at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. In the first eight months of 2018, air freight at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol decreased by more than 3 percent compared to the same period in 2017.

Development of freight transport (total weight of goods carried by road, inland waterway shipping, rail, pipeline, sea-shipping and air) by type of flow(left, in millions tonnes) and by mode of transport (right, in billion tonne-kilometres) on Dutch territory. Source: CBS/Panteia/Significance/KiM

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

domestic

international

total

’23’19’18’15’10’050

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

pipelines

rail transportinland waterway shipping

road transport

’23’19’18’15’10’05

estimated pipelines

estimated rail transportestimated inland waterway shipping

estimated road transportestimation domestic

estimation international

estimation total

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 17

Page 18: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

Colophon

This is a publication of the Netherlands Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management. October 2018

KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis

ISBN/EAN

978-90-8902-202-8

KiM-18-A23

Project coordination:

Peter Bakker

With contributions from:

Jan Francke, Marije Hamersma, Lucas Harms, Olga Huibregtse, Saeda Moorman, Fons Savelberg, Johan Visser

KiM is responsible for the content and conclusions of this publication.

Design and layout

VormVijf, The Hague

KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy AnalysisP.O. Box 209012500 EX The Hague Telephone: +31 (0)70 456 19 65

Website: http://english.kimnet.nlE-mail: [email protected]

KiM publications can be downloaded as pdf files from our website: http://english.kimnet.nl.You may also contact one of our staff members.

Parts of this publication may be reproduced on the condition that KiM is cited as the source.

Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis | Key Transport Figures 2018 18

Page 19: Key Transport Figures 2018 - english.kimnet.nltransport+figures+2018.pdf · countable up to 100. KiM uses other data sources for analyses within the public transport market, as they

The KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport

Policy Analysis conducts mobility analyses that

are subsequently incorporated in national

transportation policy. As an independent

institute within the Dutch Ministry of

Infrastructure and the Environment, KiM

provides strategic research and policy analysis.

The content of KiM publications is independent

and does not need to reflect the views held by

the minister and/or state secretary of the

Infrastructure and the Environment ministry.

The KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis

This is a publication by the

Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management

P.O. Box 20901 | 2500 EX Den Haagwww.rijksoverheid.nl/ienw

http://english.kimnet.nl

ISBN/EAN: 978-90-8902-202-8

October 2018 | KiM-18-A23