Key Areas of Implementation Performance

Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, Transportation Development Division

TRB Innovations in Travel Modeling TRB Innovations in Travel Modeling ConferenceConference

The Path to a Staged The Path to a Staged Implementation of Integrated Implementation of Integrated

ModelsModels

May 22, 2006May 22, 2006


Key Areas of Implementation Key Areas of Implementation PerformancePerformance

• Outreach• Support for Program: internal and external• Strong Implementation Program• Models


OutreachOutreach

• Gain clear understanding of needs of decision makers

• Develop tool with needs in mind• Seek opportunities to use models to

address decision makers’ questions• Making connections with decision makers

will generate seeds of support later


SupportSupport

• Internal support is crucial• External support is useful• Data collection


Strong Implementation Strong Implementation ProgramProgram

• Choose projects wisely• Develop skilled staff• Use models efficiently, automate• Develop effective communication skills

– Use common language and terminology– Educate audience

• Relate findings in real world terms– Tell a logical story, intuitively make sense– Identify trade-offs and economic impacts


Statewide Integrated ModelStatewide Integrated Model

Key criteria

• Flexible geographic scale• Truly integrated

components• Hybrid formulation

– Dynamic activities– Static economy

• Activity-based models– Agent-based micro-

simulation– “Tight consistency”

• Affordable and tractable

Goals• Full integration

• Explicit representation of economy, land use, and transport

• Linkages to environ-mental analyses and performance indicators

• Build on lessons learned from first generation

• Connect with metropolitan modeling framework


Transitional Model StructureTransitional Model Structure

• Economic and demographic (ED)

• Production allocation and activity interaction (PI)

• Household allocation (HA)

• Land development (LD)• Person travel (PT)• Commercial travel (CT)• Transportation supply

(TS)• Utilities

Aggregate

Microsimulation

ED

HA

PI

LD

PT

TS

CTS

patia

l activity

Tra

nsp

ort


MetroscopeMetroscope

• Connection of economic, real estate, and transport models for the Portland metropolitan area– Regional econometric model– Residential real estate model– Nonresidential real estate model– Transportation model– GIS accounting and visualization

• Used for long-range land use and transportation studies


Land Use Scenario DevelopeR (LUSDR)Land Use Scenario DevelopeR (LUSDR)

• Stochastic microsimulation of household and business location

• Connects to standard Oregon metropolitan models (JEMnR) and Oregon small urban models (OSUM)

• Develops land use scenarios for risk analysis and land use and transportation policy testing

• Is being used in small metropolitan area long-range planning study


So, you want to develop So, you want to develop an integrated model?an integrated model?


Oregon Advice on Integrated Oregon Advice on Integrated ModelingModeling

Institutional• Build internal support• Build external support• Identify issues and questions of interest• Statewide collaboration, build bridges to other

agencies• Invest in staff


Oregon Advice on Integrated Oregon Advice on Integrated ModelingModelingTechnical• Think big, start small

– Prototypes– Building blocks– Simplest thing that can possibly work

• Short development cycles• Design integration with other models & data

systems at outset• Design user interface first, models second• Early applications• Build good communications skills for technical staff


For more information:

http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/TP/TMR.shtml

Bill UptonManager, Oregon Transportation Modeling Program(503) 986-4106 Email: [email protected]

Becky KnudsonSenior Transportation [email protected](503) 986-4113

Key Areas of Implementation Performance

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