Bringing stand level fire risk to the landscape

level: Fire risk assessment using FFE-FVS with the Landscape Management System.

Kevin CederAnd

James McCarterWestern Mensurationists Meeting

22 June 2004

Overview

• Landscape organization– Stands and larger scale

considerations

• Overview of the Landscape Management System

• Examples of fire risk analysis using LMS with FFE-FVS and LMS-FFE Add On

Stands: The typical analysis unit

• A unit to create a unique area with relatively uniform characteristics– Vegetation type– Disturbance history

• Data collected at a stand level

• Tools developed to use stand level data– Growth models– Fire behavior and

effects models

Landscape: Ecological and Ownership Level

• An assemblage of stands• Planning and

management on ownerships occur at a multi-stand or landscape scale

• Wildlife often ignore stand boundaries and will use a multi-stand area

• Disturbances can operate at a multi-stand level– Wind: ’21 Blow on

Olympic Peninsula– Fire: Biscuit fire

Fires can work at landscape level

Scaling from Stand to Landscape

• Need to assess at larger than stand scale, but we know the most about inventory at the stand level

• The Landscape Management System (LMS) brings together stand level growth models and stand level tree lists and aggregates them into a landscape for growth, treatment, and analysis with a user-friendly interface.

The Landscape Management System

• A platform that bring together numerous programs – Growth models– Stand and

landscape visualization

– Stand treatment programs

– Analysis tables

LMS ComponentsLMS Interface

Analysis Tables

Over 50 analysis tables

Visualization

SVS

EnVision

Treatment and Disturbance Simulation

LMS Portfolio:Data Files

Tree List Inventories

Site and Topographic

data

Spatial Data (optional)

Growth Simulation

FVS

ORGANON

Other Models

LMS Data Requirements

• Stand level information– Site quality variables, age, area

• Tree inventory information– “tree list” (individual tree data with

expansion factors), Need Species, Diameter, and TPA, better to also have Height and Crown ratio

• Spatial information (for landscape analysis and visualization)– Need elevation model (USGS DEM, SDTS,

ESRI ASCII Grid – converted to PC-Plans DTM format), map of stand boundaries (ERSI shapefile or MOSS file), can add other spatial features (roads, streams, trails, etc)

Alternative Strategies for Design, Layout, and

Administration of Fuel Removal Projects

•Fremont National Forest

•502 plots

•928,499 forested acres

•Okanogan National Forest

•413 plots

•763,885 forested acres

Thinning prescriptions

1) Remove 9” and below2) Remove 50% Basal Area (BA) from

below3) Leave 45 ft2/acre BA from below4) Remove 12” and greater5) Wildfire Simulation6) No Action

Forest Condition 2000 2010 2035

Below 50% BA

Below 45 ft^2 BA

Below 9”

Forest Condition 2000 2010

2035

Above 12”

Wildfire

No action

Risk reduction performance of Half BA and BA 45 treatments may result from the addition of 10-12” DBH trees to what otherwise is the 9”& Under treatment.

Stands where 9”&Under is effective can be identified.

Simulations with regeneration demonstrate the need for future controlled burns or thinnings.

Okanogan high risk with regen

LMS-FFE Add On: Linking fire tools into

LMS• All variants of the Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE)

for the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) growth model

• The LMS-FFE Configuration Tool• LMS tables linked to FFE-FVS outputs• The Fire Scoping Tool

– The Fire Scoping Report spreadsheet– Risk Mapper ESRI ArcView project file

• The LMS-FFE Add-on is not installed with the main LMS install and must be installed separately after downloading from the LMS website: http://lms.cfr.washington.edu/ or from the LMS CD.

Enabling FFE-FVS in LMS

LMS - Fire Scoping Interface

• Used to View FFE Variable Distributions

• Select potential fire weather conditions

• Select risk classification variable and thresholds

• Create graphical and tabular or map output

Example of Using LMS with FFE

• ColvilleExam portfolio– Section of South Deep watershed on

Colville NF– Portfolio is installed with LMS

• Treat all stands removing all trees <9” DBH in 2005

• Simulate prescribed fire in 2010• Examine fire risk and risk change with

Fire Scoping Tool– Risk Scoping Report– Risk Mapper

Location of Colville Exam

• NE Washington• 4344 ac• 125 stands• 3039 – 4789

feet• Mixed conifer• QMD 1 – 9”• 55 stands with

SDI >=350

Steps

• Set up simulations– Scenario file for LMS– Set prescribed fire year and

conditions• Run simulations • Initial conditions and risk

classification variable examination• Select risk variable and limits• Fire scoping to assess risk

Risk Classification: Which Variable?

• Fire Scoping Tool allows use of 5 FFE output variables– Crowning Index– Torching Index– Fire Type– Flame Length– % BA Mortality

• Limits for risk class can be set for local conditions

• FFE Variable Distribution report lets user examine distributions to choose appropriate variable and class limits

Choosing Risk Classification: FFE

Variable Distributions

Initial Risk Conditions

Crowning Index:High: <25Moderate: 25 - 50Low: >50

BA Mortality:High: >50%Moderate: 15 – 50%Low: <15%

Initial Risk Conditions

• Set variable and limits in Fire Scoping Tool

• Run Scoping with output to Spreadsheet

• Fire Risk graphs and tables created in Fire Scoping spreadsheet

Fire Risk Graphs and Tables

• Fire conditions• Fire risk distributions• Stand attribute

distributions segmented by risk class:– Elevation– QMD– TPA– BA– SDI– Dominant species– Stand structure

• FFE variable distributions segmented by risk class– Crowning index– Torching index– % BA mortality– Flame length– Fire type– Canopy fuel base

height– Canopy bulk density

Fire Risk Graphs

Did the Risk Change?

Why Did the Risk Change

Moved to Low risk: Pre-treatment: CI=20Post-treatment: CI=75

Still High Risk: Pre-treatment: CI=18Post-treatment: CI=21

Where is the risk?Risk Mapping

• Custom ESRI ArcView project designed to make maps from data from LMS

• Python programs classify FFE output data and creates input file for mapping

Risk Mapping

Avenue ScriptArcView Map

FFE Output Python Program

ESRI ArcView GIS

Landscape Management System

Conclusions…

• LMS brings stand level data and tools together in a landscape context

• Stand level fire risk models are available and becoming more mature and usable

• Integration of tools provide enhanced analytical capability

• Stand level fire risk models don’t provide link between stands (contagion)

• Landscape level fire risk models also available, but need to be easier to use and access information

• Easy to use interfaces required for use and adoption of tools