Kerry Obrien Obama Rudd

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Transcript KERRY O'BRIEN, PRESENTER: In the past two days in Washington, Prime inister Ke!in R"dd has had e#tensi!e ta$%s with President Bara&% Oama, Se&retary o( State )i$ary *$inton, and +e(ense Se&retary Roert ates- .nd .(ghanistan (eat"red in a$$ three &on!ersations - We' re to$d .meri&a hasn't yet (orma$$y as%ed (or a igger ."stra$ian &ommitment to the &ampaign against Ta$ian and a$ /aeda ins"rgents there, "t it seems it's 0"st a matter o( time- President Oama is ao"t to "n!ei$ his new po$i&y in .(ghanistan ased on an e#ha"sti!e re!iew- .nd one man with signi(i&ant inp"t to that re!iew was an ."stra$ian &o"nter1 ins"rgen&y e#pert named +a!id Ki$&"$$en, regarded in Washington as one o( the wor$d's most in($"entia$ e#perts on g"erri$$a war(are- )e was senior ad!iser to enera$ +a!id Petrae" s d"ring $ast year's s"rge in Ira2, and to *ondo$ee33a Ri&e- .t a time when ."stra$ia's +e(en&e inister 4oe$ 5it3gion appears to e spe&ta&"$ar$y o((side with his department, +a!id Ki$&"$$en is warning that ."stra$ian troops are ao"t to e#posed to greater ris% against the Ta$ian, and that the &on($i&t &o"$d $ast a de&ade- +a!id Ki$&"$$en has 0"st &omp$eted an e#ha"sti!e oo% on &o"nter1ins"rgen&y &a$$ed the '.&&identa$ "erri$$a', and I spo%e with him today o"t o( Washington- +a!id Ki$&"$$en, yo"' !e twi&e $ed 6S (ie$d assessment teams in 7889 and $ast year to re!iew the .( ghan &ampaign- What do yo" thin% President Oama's $atest re!iew wi$$ re&ommend +.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: I thin% what we're $i%e$y to see is a meas"red in&rease in oth &i!i$ian and mi$itary assets in .(ghanistan and I thin% primari$y it's going to e a training rigade and a &o"p$e o( additiona$ &omat rigades into the so"th o( .(ghanistan- KERRY O'BRIEN: .nd is that what yo" thin% sho"$d e re&ommended +.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: The re!iew's een !ery &omprehensi!e and in (a&t one o( the interesting things that oth ;i&e President Biden and Ri&hard )o$roo% ha!e said p"$i&$y is that we need to e (o&"sing on a&hie!a$e o0e&ti!es and ade2"ate reso"r&es- I thin% that's a !ery sensi$e way to approa&h the re!iew and they'!e "i$t on a n"mer o( re!iews that were done y the B"sh administration in the $ast twe$!e months- .nd I thin% one o( the %ey re&ommendations that's di((erent (rom 0"st troop n"mers or 0"st assets wi$$ e ao"t (o&"sing on prote&ting the .(ghan pop"$ation where it $i!es primari$y in &ities and sma$$ !i$$ages- That's proa$y the main shi(t that I thin% we=re going to see 0"st aside (rom the sheer n"mers- KERRY O'BRIEN: Yo"'!e written in the '.&&identa$ "erri$$a' that the .(ghan &ampaign may e approa&hing a tipping point, and a$tho"gh the &on($i&t might e winna$e, the o!era$$ trend is e#treme$y negati!e- What e!iden&e do yo" ase that on +.;I+ KI<*6<<EN : Three years sin&e 788> we'!e see ao"t a >88 per &ent in&rease in !io$en&e in .(ghanistan- In the same time(rame, the area that's a((e&ted y the ins"rgen&y has more than do"$ed- The &o"nter nar&oti&s &ampaign has, I wo"$d say, sta$$ed- Nar&oti&s hasn't got worse "t it's sti$$ sti&%ing at s"&h a high $e!e$ that )e$$man pro!in&e, the British pro!in&e, whi&h they are se&"ring, is now the wor$d &apita$ (or opi"m and heroin prod"&tion -

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.nd we'!e a$so seen a drop in s"pport (or oth the internationa$ presen&e and

the Kar3ai go!ernment o( 78 or ?8 per&entage points in that time (rame- So I

thin% o!era$$ we'd ha!e to say it's not going we$$-

KERRY O'BRIEN: .nd yo" point that a$$ the time the &on($i&t has een going on,

the Ta$ian ha!e een "i$ding the 2"a$ity and sophisti&ation and n"mers o(

their weapons arsena$-

+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: Yes, they are getting etter-

KERRY O'BRIEN: In yo"r oo% yo" des&rie one att$e in a mo"ntain !a$$ey in

6r"3gan in 7889 to ma%e a point ao"t a&&identa$ g"erri$$as and the ris% o(

p$aying into the hands o( what yo" &a$$ an a$ /aeda e#ha"stion strategy- *an

yo" rie($y e#p$ain that point

+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: The 1 we$$, two things- The (irst one is the att$e whi&h too%

p$a&e @Ath o( ay, 7889- It was a patro$ (rom third Spe&ia$ 5or&es gro"p- The

third atta$ion o( Spe&ia$ 5or&es gro"p, I sho"$d say, o"t o( 5ort Bragg, North

*aro$ina- They were mo!ing thro"gh a !a$$ey in northern 6r"3gan when they

were am"shed y ao"t @>8 Ta$ian- They were pinned down (or ao"t si#

ho"rs and one .meri&an was %i$$ed, se!en were wo"nded, and it too% them

&a$$ing "p (ighter 0ets to e#a&t$y e#tra&t themse$!es (rom the (ight- Theinteresting thing, tho"gh, was the reason they were pinned down was not so

m"&h the Ta$ian, it was e&a"se the $o&a$ peop$e in the !a$$ey went home to

their !i$$ages, got their weapons and &ame a&% and 0oined in 1 and assisted in

(ighting the patro$-

.(ter the att$e, we as%ed a $ot o( the $o&a$s, yo" %now, Why did yo" s"pport

the Ta$ian We didn't thin% yo" were on the Ta$ian side- .nd they said, We$$,

we're not- B"t they said, yo" %now, This is the most e#&iting thing that's

happened in o"r !a$$ey (or ao"t 78 years- .nd we &o"$dn't sit it o"t, that

wo"$d'!e een dishono"ra$e- .nd i( we're going to 0oin in, we're going to 0oin in

on the side o( the $o&a$ g"y, not the side o( the (oreigner-

.nd so this to me is a &$assi& e#amp$e o( what I &a$$ the a&&identa$ g"erri$$asyndrome, where a $ot o( the peop$e that are (ighting "s aren't (ighting "s

e&a"se they're ideo$ogi&a$$y &ommitted to a$ /aeda or to the Ta$ian or any o(

the other e#tremist gro"p, they're (ighting "s e&a"se we 0"st t"rned "p in their

!a$$ey and sort o( p"shed them into the arms o( a $o&a$ enemy-

KERRY O'BRIEN: Yo" gi!e one i$$"stration o( g"erri$$a $aw &o"rts operating

thro"gho"t so"thern .(ghanistan to show how e((e&ti!e$y the Ta$ian is

spreading its in($"en&e- *an yo" e$aorate on the point

+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: Yes, right now we ha!e ao"t @? Shari'ah $aw &o"rts

r"nning a&ross !ario"s parts o( the so"th o( .(ghanistan- .nd when yo" hear

the term Shari'ah $aw &o"rt, yo" thin%, yo" %now, women getting stoned (or

ad"$tery and hands getting &"t o(( and so on- .nd that does happen, "tinteresting$y ao"t A> per &ent o( the wor% o( these &o"rts are what we wo"$d

&a$$ &i!i$ or &ommer&ia$ $aw- They do property disp"tes, &on!eyan&ing,

inheritan&e, di!or&e $aw- They do a "n&h o( things that re$ated to water and

gra3ing and essentia$$y they're pro!iding disp"te reso$"tion and mediation

ser!i&es at the $o&a$ $e!e$ (or !i$$ages a&ross the so"th o( .(ghanistan-

Now the reason that they are doing it and not the go!ernment is two1(o$d-

5irst$y, the internationa$ &omm"nity spent a $ot o( e((ort "i$ding instit"tions at

the nationa$ $e!e$- So we went in and "i$t &o"rts and S"preme *o"rt 0"dges

and a po$i&e head2"arters in Ka"$ and so on- B"t the Ta$ian (o&"sed on the

$o&a$ $e!e$-

.nd se&ond$y, the other ma0or reason why it's een so e((e&ti!e (or them is thatthey (i$$ed a gap that we'!e &reated y sending the po$i&e to (ight the ins"rgents

rather than %eeping them with the peop$e to prote&t the pop"$ation-

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KERRY O'BRIEN: .nd in the pro&ess, are they gi!ing themse$!es a sense o(

$egitima&y in the eyes o( the peop$e .nd an i$$"sion o( go!ernment

+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: That's right to some e#tent- The most re&ent po$$ing in

.(ghanistan s"ggested that ao"t CC per &ent o( the .(ghan pop"$ation sti$$

(ears and dis$i%es the Ta$ian- On$y ao"t (o"r per &ent o( them want to see the

Ta$ian ta%e o!er- B"t o"r e#perien&e in Ira2 parti&"$ar$y and in a$so the

eastern1so"th o( .(ghanistan is that when p"sh &omes to sho!e, the pop"$ation

wi$$ go with whoe!er &an pro!ide them a sense o( predi&tai$ity and order and a

sense o( sa(ety, whi&h &omes (rom that order- .nd in the &ase o( a $ot o( !i$$ages

in the so"th o( .(ghanistan, that's the Ta$ian-

Now, one o( the things I do is when I go in the (ie$d, I as% peop$e a "n&h o(

2"estions designed to (ig"re o"t, yo" %now, where their $oya$ties $ie and what

they thin% ao"t the sit"ation- .nd I o(ten say to peop$e in .(ghanistan, I(

someone sto$e yo"r i&y&$e and one o( yo"r $i!esto&%, who wo"$d yo" report it

Wo"$d yo" report it to the po$i&e or wo"$d yo" report it to someone e$se .nd

they $a"gh when yo" s"ggest that they wo"$d report it to the po$i&e, they say,

They'd 0"st eat "s "p (or othering them- B"t i( we report it to the Ta$ian, we

%now we'd get it a&%- So that to me is an indi&ation o(, yo" %now, peop$e

don't ne&essari$y $i%e the Ta$ian, "t they tr"st in their ai$ity to de$i!er

se&"rity at the $o&a$ $e!e$-

KERRY O'BRIEN: +oes it rea$$y matter anymore whether Osama Bin <aden is

&a"ght or not

+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: We$$, Osama Bin <aden's in Pa%istan, and it's good to ring

that "p e&a"se i( yo" were to ta%e the pop"$ation o( Ira2 and the pop"$ation o(

Pa%istan, smash them together, yo" sti$$ add "p to on$y ao"t a third o( the

pop"$ation o( Pa%istan- Pa%istan's got @D? mi$$ion peop$e, it has @88 n"&$ear

weapons, it has an army $arger than the 6S army and it has a$ /aeda

head2"arters sitting there, right there in the two thirds o( the &o"ntry that the

go!ernment doesn't &ontro$- So i( Pa%istan were to &o$$apse and we were to see

an a$ /aeda ta%eo!er, that wo"$d e a pro$em that wo"$d dwar( anything we'!e

seen sin&e A@@ in terms o( s&a$e and se!erity- So I thin%, rea$$y, the (o&"s thatwe need to e p"tting in terms o( $ong1term iss"es in what we "sed to &a$$ the

war on terrorism is primari$y Pa%istan-

KERRY O'BRIEN: Yo" a$so ta$% ao"t the ease with whi&h ins"rgents &ross

etween Pa%istan and .(ghanistan, sometimes in road day$ight "nder the

noses o( Pa%istani mi$itary &he&%points- Pa%istan at the moment &$ear$y doesn't

ha!e the wi$$ or the &apa&ity to do m"&h ao"t that- B"t what &an .meri&a do,

rea$$y, to &hange the sit"ation

+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: We$$, this is easy to say "t e#treme$y hard to e#e&"te-

What we'!e done in re$ation to Pa%istan in the past has primari$y een (o&"sed

on %i$$ing or &apt"ring the senior $eadership o( a$ /aeda and the Ta$ian- We'!e

had %ind o( an instr"menta$ re$ationship with the Pa%istanis where we want atransa&tion where they de$i!er a$ /aeda and the Ta$ian and we pat them on

the heads and say they're good oys-

That is not where the Pa%istanis are at- The Pa%istanis ha!e a $ong history o(

s"pporting the Ta$ian as an "n&on!entiona$ &o"nterweight to Indian regiona$

in($"en&e- They are &ontin"ing to do that and I don't ta$% here ao"t the

Pa%istani &i!i$ian $eadership, whi&h is demo&rati&a$$y e$e&ted and genera$$y

(a!o"ra$e to internationa$ &omm"nity e((ort in .(ghanistan- I'm ta$%ing ao"t

se&tions within the mi$itary and the inte$$igen&e &omm"nity-

KERRY O'BRIEN: Whi&h yo" ta$% ao"t as a mi$itary state within a state-

+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: Yes and a rog"e state within a state at that- It doesn't(o$$ow the dire&tion o( the e$e&ted po$iti&ian- Yo" on$y ha!e to $oo% at what

happened a(ter the "mai atta&% in No!emer $ast year when President .si(

.$i Fardari, the president o( Pa%istan, to$d the Indians that enera$ Pasha, the

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head o( the inte$$igen&e ser!i&e, wo"$d go to "mai and he$p in the

in!estigations- The !ery same day, enera$ Kiyani, the head o( the army, said

no, that won't e happening-

That wo"$d e $i%e .ng"s )o"ston p"$i&$y gainsaying the Prime inister in a

matter o( internationa$ importan&e- So this is a sit"ation where the mi$itary

simp$y are not a&ting "nder the &ontro$ o( the e$e&ted &i!i$ian go!ernment-

KERRY O'BRIEN: )ow wo"$d yo" s"mmarise ."stra$ia's &ontri"tion to the

.(ghan &ampaign, and is it ine!ita$e that more wi$$ e e#pe&ted o( ."stra$ia

+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: We$$, the Prime inister was here in Washington this wee%

and I'm not aware o( any p"$i& statement y either the .meri&an or the

."stra$ian $eadership ao"t additiona$ re2"ests (or reso"r&es-

That doesn't mean those dis&"ssions ha!en't ta%en p$a&e ehind the s&enes,

and I'd !ery e s"rprised i( we are not as%ed to do more at some point- B"t

what I'd say is that that may not e mi$itary- . $ot o( the &o"ntries that are

&ontri"ting more to the &ampaign wi$$ e $oo%ing at po$i&e, at &i!i$

administrators and at aid- Those %inds o( things-

.nd the other point I wo"$d ma%e is that we wi$$ proa$y see a spi%e in!io$en&e in the ."stra$ian se&tor o( the &o"ntry, in Or"3gan Pro!in&e, o!er the

&oming (ew months regard$ess o( whether we &ommit more troops or not-

That's (or two reasons- 5irst$y, it's e&a"se o( the (ighting season that I ta$%ed

ao"t e(ore, where (ighting wi$$ 0"st nat"ra$$y in&rease as the weather

impro!es- B"t se&ond$y, yo" %now, the 6nited States is ao"t to p"t @D,888

e#tra troops into .(ghanistan- The ma0ority o( those g"ys wi$$ go into the east

and so"th o( the &o"ntry- .nd &o"nterins"rgen&y is $i%e s2"ee3ing a a$$oon,

when yo" p"t more o( o"r g"ys into one area, the enemy doesn't disappear,

they go e$sewhere and it wi$$ tend to p"sh towards the &entre o( the &o"ntry,

into the ."stra$ian and +"t&h se&tor- So I thin% we &an e#pe&t an in&rease in

!io$en&e rather than a de&rease in the ne#t (ew months-

KERRY O'BRIEN: Whi&h sad$y, "t ine!ita$y, is going to mean e#pos"re to

higher &as"a$ties, isn't it

+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: Yes, I thin% so-

KERRY O'BRIEN: E!en i( the *oa$ition (or&es do e!erything right (rom now on,

how $ong wo"$d yo" e#pe&t the .(ghanistan &on($i&t to $ast

+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: Best &ase, est &ase, @8 years- I wo"$d see three to (i!e

years o( ma0or &omat ahead o( "s- The ne#t year or two wi$$ e pretty intense-

I( that goes right, whi&h is a ig i(, i( that goes right, then we'$$ e into a

stai$isation phase whi&h &o"$d $ast (o"r or (i!e years- .nd then into a phase o(

handing o!er to the .(ghans and a$$owing them to ta%e the $ead ro$e in se&"ringthe &o"ntry-

So that is est &ase- .nd, yo" %now, I thin% it's important that we $e!e$ with the

."stra$ian peop$e and the .meri&an peop$e ao"t how m"&h this is going to

&ost, and how $ong it's going to ta%e- Whi&h is something that "n(ort"nate$y,

&ertain$y in .meri&a, wasn't rea$$y done in re$ation to Ira- .nd I thin% as we get

into this thing, we need to e &$ear on the (a&t that it &o"$d e an e#treme$y

$ong1term endea!o"r-

KERRY O'BRIEN: B"t yo"'re ta$%ing ao"t an enormo"s stress on the po$iti&a$

wi$$ o( &o"ntries $i%e .meri&a, Britain and ."stra$ia, aren't yo" Parti&"$ar$y sin&e

the $onger it goes, the more the &as"a$ties mo"nt

+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: Yes, a$tho"gh I thin% that pop"$ations in the West aren't

ne&essari$y &as"a$ty a!erse- I thin% what they hate to see is $osses not mat&hed

y any per&epti$e progress- One o( the things we (o"nd in Ira2 was that as we

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t"rned the &ampaign aro"nd d"ring the s"rge and we started to see some !ery

s"stantia$ progress on the gro"nd, that the wi$$ingness o( peop$e to to$erate

&omat operations e&ame higher- .nd I thin% we may see something $i%e that

in .(ghanistan pro!ided we &an t"rn this thing aro"nd- .nd that's a ig pro!iso-

KERRY O'BRIEN: In the end, are yo" an optimist or pessimist on the roader

regiona$ and g$oa$ &on($i&t etween the West and mi$itant Is$ami&

("ndamenta$ism

+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: In terms o( what we "sed to &a$$ the g$oa$ war on

terrorism, that is, the &ontrast etween ta%(iri terrorists s"&h as a$ /aeda and

the west, I'm an optimist-

  e've seen some extremely interesting developments in the Muslim

world in the last four or five years. King Abdullah of Jordan got 500

luma !slami" s"holars and politi"al leaders together in Armen#

Jordan# in $005. And they unanimously re%e"ted al &aeda's ideology#

and put forward a fatwa# a religious ruling# suggesting that people

who support al &aeda are in fa"t hereti"s.

hat's a very ma%or step( there's never been a unified# unanimous

%udgment li)e that in the Muslim world before. And al &aeda's

dis"ussions of %ihad and of terrorism have prompted a debate in

!slami" theologi"al "ir"les a)in to sort of %ust war debate in the

west# whi"h has really led to a shift and we've seen a drop of

popularity in al &aeda fairly substantially over the last year or two. !

thin) that provided we get out of the business of unilaterally po)ing

our nose into lo"al "ountry's affairs and we adopt instead a support

program where we wor) on a "ontinuous engagement basis to help

people solve their own problems# provided we do that# ! thin) this

thing is li)ely to die a natural death over time.

KERRY O'BRIEN: We$$, it wo"$d e ni&e to end this on a s$ight$y optimisti& noteat $east- +a!id Ki$&"$$en, than%s !ery m"&h (or ta$%ing with "s-

+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: Than%s, Kerry-