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KENYAPressing Problems and Promising Solutions
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Outline
Overview and Statistical Indicators Political Issues Economic Issues Foreign Relations Issues Humanitarian Issues Policy Recommendations Reasons For Hope
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Overview
Independence: 1963 Population: 37 million (California 36 million) Population Density: 59 per squared km (US
31) Government
Republic Unicameral Legislature Multi-Party President & Legislators serve 5 year terms
Next election December 27th
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Economic Indicators
Income Inequality Top 10% control 42% of total income (Gini: 44.5) US: Top 10% control 48.5% (Gini: 45)
Population Below Poverty Line: 50% (US 12%) GDP: $41.48 Billion (92/229) Unemployment Rate: 40% (187/199) Top Industries: Small Scale Consumer Goods,
Agriculture, Horticulture, Oil Refining, Tourism Current Account: -$1.119 billion (118/163) Exports: Tea, Horticultural Products, Coffee,
Petroleum Products Imports: Machinery and Transportation Equipment,
Petroleum Products, Motor Vehicles, Iron and Steel Aid: $768.3 million
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GDP Growth
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Inflation
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Corruption Perception Index
1 Finland 9.620 Belgium 7.3 Chile 7.3 USA 7.3142 Angola 2.2
Kenya 2.2 Kyrgyzstan 2.2 Nigeria 2.2 Pakistan 2.2 Sierra Leone 2.2 Tajikistan 2.2 Turkmenistan 2.2160 Guinea 1.9 Iraq 1.9 Myanmar 1.9163 Haiti 1.8
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POLITICS: Historical Context
Colonization Arab occupation 8th century Portugal in 1498 Britain in 1895
Independence: 1963
Multiparty general elections: 1992
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Jomo Kenyatta[1st President of Kenya 1963-78]
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Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi[1978-2002]
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President Mwai Kibaki[2002- ? ]
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POLITICS: Contemporary Problems Censorship of media outlets
Unequal representation of minority groups
Corruption
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Media Censorship
2003 crackdown on unregistered newspapers and radio station harassment
2006 raid of Standard media group press
Fear within populace and Western donors
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Minority Group Representation
Political representation
Unequal distribution of land and resources Land clashes of 1993
Risk of ethnic conflict Kikuyu 22%, Luhya 14%, Luo 13%, Kalenjin
12%, Kamba 111%, Kisii 6%, Meru 6%, other African 15%, non-African 1%
Over 40 ethnic groups, each of which speaks a more or less distinct language or dialect.
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Corruption
Corruption Perception Index [see chart]
Anti-Corruption Commission 2003 http://www.kacc.go.ke/
Corruption scandals of 2006
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ECONOMY: History
After Independence, Rapid Growth 1963-1973: 6.6% GDP growth/year Small scale agriculture, FDI
Stagnation 1974-2002 1997-2002: 1.5% GDP growth/ year Poor agricultural polices, poor credit, import
substitution Rebound 2003-Present
2003-2006: 9.9% GDP Growth/ year Privatization, export-led growth, removal of
government controls, stable monetary and fiscal policies
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ECONOMY: Key Issues
Corruption Infrastructure Privatization Trade Barriers
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CORRUPTION
Hurts Foreign Direct Investment Low Investor Confidence
Aid Agencies Flee World Bank, IMF, Foreign Countries delay or cancel
loans Inefficient Markets
Underground Markets distort prices, create economic inefficiency
Financial Support Not Passed Down Aid does not make it to those who need it most
Business Distrust of Government Government seen as enemy to growth, not
facilitator Creates and Sustains Income Inequality
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INFRASTRUCTURE
Poor Transportation, Communication Infrastructure Neglect of Rural Areas Lack of Funding, Investment Development
Outside Agriculture Agriculture Mis-Practice
Poor Land Use Policies Little Education about Best Practices Overgrazing, Irrigation Issues
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PRIVATIZATION
Import Substitution Government Controlled Business Wide-spread Government Regulation of Business High inefficiency, Poor Business and Investor
Environment Move Towards Privatization
Deregulation of Railroad, Air Travel, Electricity Reduction in amount of Civil Servants, Business
Regulation Continued Deregulation Needed
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TRADE BARRIERS
Developed Countries High Tariffs on Imported Agricultural Goods Hurts Kenya Little Progress in Reducing Tariffs at Doha Need for Kenyan Industry to Diversify
(Fewer Subsistence Farmers) Need for Farmers to network (take
advantage of economies of scale, access to larger markets, increased information transmission)
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Foreign Relations
Create Regional Stability to Ensure Own Stability Worked in Sudan to stabilize Southern
Region Provided UN Peacekeepers to African
Conflicts in Somalia
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Foreign Relations
Credit Worthy African Nation The IMF Identifies Kenya as having a
positive Credit Worthiness Though they have massive debt for a
developing nation, it has been paid back on time
Amassed SDR 136.4 Million in Loans from the IMF
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Foreign Relations
Kenyan/US Relations Very Strong Relationship since the 1998
Nairobi bombing Ally in the war on Terrorism Kenya is involved in the rebuilding of
Afghanistan and Iraq African Union has some contempt for Kenya
for its strong ties to the US
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Humanitarian Obstacles to Development
Health Education Women’s Rights
Education Property Rights
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Health
HIV/AIDS Pandemic Health Care
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HIV/AIDS
Lowers productivity Treatment is inaccessible and expensive Women are being forced to fill
untraditional roles as men are lost to the disease
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Health Care
Insufficient funding Inadequate infrastructure makes
it inaccessible Shortage of trained health
workers Lack of money in the public
sector reinforces inequality as professionals move to the private sector to make money
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Education
Limited access Especially for women Most inaccessible in the North Eastern
Province
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Low Income
No fees for primary education Instead there are funds, books, and
clothes Families can’t afford to send all or any
children
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Limited Access for Girls
When forced to choose, families send sons Sons are the main recipients of family
assets Cultural
Especially in the North Eastern Province Islamic influence has set up separate education
system that promotes submissive behavior in girls
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Other Problems
Environment Teachers perpetuate gender stereotypes Girls are not given access to subjects
that will get them absorbed into the labor market
Physical and sexual abuse
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Property Rights
Women are filling untraditional roles as men are lost to HIV/AIDS or move to urban areas in search of paid employment
Women have less access to education Women cannot inherit land, are given
poor plots of land, and can be evicted without cause
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Repercussions
Low agricultural production, food shortages, underemployment, and rural poverty
Women are asked to fill men’s roles without the same resources
Slows development
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Corruption Reduction: Key Elements Strengthening institutional structure Enforcing accountability and
transparency Educating the populace about corruption
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SOLUTIONS: Corruption
• Case Study: TI Teachers Service Commission May 2006• TI integrity study recommendations:– Increase public education– Cooperate with outside actors (KACC, T.I.-Kenya)– Publicize anti-corruption policies & punishment of
offenders– Develop monitoring and evaluating systems– Hire based on publicized ‘objective’ criteria/ audit and
review existing staff– Lessen the ‘suspicion divide’ between junior and
senior officials
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SOLUTIONS: Corruption
TI integrity study recommendations continued Strengthen Integrity Division
Hire officers trained by KACC Remove ALL former officers and conduct
transparent recruitment Conduct corruption internal risk
assessment to guide policy Disseminate Code of Ethics
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SOLUTIONS: Corruption
Conclusion Applicability of recommendations to other
institutions Importance of strong judiciary for
enforcement Increase judges salaries Expedite judicial process Eliminate monopolies of prosecution agencies
Interconnectedness of problem
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SOLUTIONS: Privatization/Devolution
Privatization Less Government Control over Business Sector Reduced Government Regulation, Red Tape,
Reduction of Civil Servants Restructures Incentives in favor of business
Devolution More Local Control, Less Centralized Give Localities more sovereignty, allows them to
directly address own problems, improves efficiency Already Occurring: Constituency Development
Fund, Local Authorities Transfer Fund
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SOLUTIONS: Foreign Relations Take A Leading Role in East African
Affairs Stabilize Violent Regions to North Trading Partners, Regional Markets Economies of Scale, Leverage in Negations
with Developing Nations Responsible Management of Aid
Organization Monies Encourages More Aid More Sovereignty
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SOLUTIONS: Other
Infrastructure Utilize money saved on corruption for investment
in transportation/communication infrastructure Especially to Northeast Region and other rural regions
Lack of infrastructure stalling economic development, reducing access to medical and emergency care, slowing information transmission
Agriculture/Environment Need to Educate Farmers on “Best Practices” Bring Farmers together- spread information,
economies of scale Education
Curriculum change Streamline education spending to improve
efficiency and reallocate resources to other sectors (healthcare)
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Reasons for Hope
Australian company and China funding search for oil
Fiber optic internet cable Recent success for Kenya Anti-Corruption
Commission Successful by-elections in May Nairobi as regional hub Recent macroeconomic growth, surging
bond and stock market