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Transcript of KENYA COUNTRY UPDATE - theargeo.orgtheargeo.org/presentations/countryupdates/Kenya.pdf · Ministry...
KENYA COUNTRY UPDATE
PEKETSA MANGI & DR. PETER OMENDA
ARGEO C6, 2ND – 6TH NOV 2016
1
Kenya In Africa
44 MILLION PEOPLE
LOCATION: Eastern part of Africa
INSTALLED CAPACITY: 2.3GW
POWER OUTPUT: 8,840 GWh
TOTAL GEOTHERMAL INSTALLED CAPACITY: 676.8
MW (30%)
GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL: > 10,000MW
2
Power Sector Overview
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Ministry of Energy and Petroleum
ERC
Energy Tribunal
KenGen Imports IPPs REA
GDC –steam developer
KETRACO – Transmission operator
KPLC – Distribution/Supply
Customers
Electricity sub sector
unbundled
3
Peak demand estimated to reach 7,000 MW by 2025, requiring 8,100 MW
generation capacity at a 15% reserve margin
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Peak demand
8,949
21
7,729
3,605
2025 23
7,729
22
7,041
Peak demand with
15% reserve margin 8,097
24
7,754
20
5,219
19
4,186
18 17 16
2,552
3,078
2015
2,299
7,754
Projected contracted capacity and peak demand
in MW
SOURCE: Team analysis; KPLC PPA list of projects, interviews with most developers, KenGen, ERC Kenya ten year power sector
expansion report
Capacity increases
significantly as Lamu (960
MW) and Kitui (960 MW)
coal plants come online
Demand and Supply for the Country
900 MW excess contracted capacity
expected by 2025 with 15% reserve
margin – speed will be key to
deliver projected plan
4
Geothermal Sites in Kenya
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
• 23 prospects
• Located within the Kenya rift
which is part of the continental
East African Rift system
• Three (3) fields are currently
under development, namely, (a)
Olkaria [KenGen, OrPower,
AKIIRA], (b) Eburru [KenGen],
and (c) Menengai [GDC]
• Other prospects are at
exploration stage
5
History of Geothermal Development in
Kenya
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
• Exploration wells drilled in 1959 – 1960;
1973-1975
• Discovery well was drilled in 1975 (OW-2)
• Appraisal and production wells drilled at
Olkaria between 1975-1981
• 1st geothermal power plant commissioned in
stages: 1981-1985 (45MW)
6
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
• Testing of well OW-X2 at Olkaria on 8th September 1971
• 1st geothermal well to discharge high pressure steam in
Kenya
7
Geothermal generation
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Public Sector
• KenGen
• GDC
Current Private Investments
• OrPower4 Inc. (Ormat)
(139MW)
• Oserian Development
Company (4.3MW)
Coming soon:
• AGIL
• Marine Power
(AkiiraOne)
8
3,4
42
1,9
04
1,3
33
1,0
05
901
895
676.8
664
537
275
208
204
104
97
56
42
29
29
8
# 7 WORLDWIDE
12,328 MW WORLDWIDE
Global Geothermal Development • First African country to develop commercial Geothermal Energy utilization
• One of the fastest growing geothermal markets in the World
• World’s seventh largest geothermal power producer
• Current installed interconnected capacity= 676.8 MWe
Modified from GEA, 2013: Geothermal Power International Market overview report
9
DRILLING AT OLKARIA GEOTHERMAL FIELD, NET ORPOWER AND AKIIRA WELLS 9
1 1 1 3 1 2 4 6 3 3 4 3 5 2 3 9 10 14
8 4 4 2 3 1 3 2 2 7 12 14 21 20
35 30 38
1 2 3 6 7 9 13 19 22 25 29 32 37 39 42
51 61
75 83 87 91 93 96 97 100 102 104
111 123
137
158
178
213
243
287
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
Wells Per Year Cummulative No. of Wells
287 DRILLED WELLS
10
TOTAL GEOTHERMAL INSTALLED CAPACITY 2016
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Olkaria Olkaria I 1981-1985 3 Operating 1F 45
Olkaria Olkaria II 2003 3 Operating 1F 70
Olkaria Olkaria II Unit 3 2010 3 Operating 1F 35
Eburru Eburru 2012 1 Operating B 2.4
Oserian Oserian-1 2003 1 Operating B 2.5
Oserian Oserian-2 2006 1 Operating 1F 1.8
Olkaria Olkaria Wellhead 2016 6 Operating 1F 81.1
Olkaria OrPower 4 Plant I 2000 6 Operating B 60
Olkaria OrPower 4 –Plant 2 2008 3 Operating B 45
Olkaria OrPower 4 –Plant 3 2014 1 Operating B 22.5
Olkaria OrPower 4 –Plant 4 2015 1 Operating B 11.5
Olkaria Olkaria IV Unit 1 2014 1 Operating 1F 75
Olkaria Olkaria IV Unit 2 2014 1 Operating 1F 75
Olkaria Olkaria I AU1 2014 1 Operating 1F 75
Olkaria Olkaria I AU2 2014 1 Operating 1F 75
Menengai Menengai 2014** 3 Construction Ongoing 1F -
Silali Silali 2017** NYD Planned - -
Longonot AGIL 2017** " Planned - -
Suswa Suswa 2017** " Planned - -
Olkaria AKIIRA One 2017** " Planned - -
Menengai Menengai 2017** " Planned - -
Eburru Eburru 2018** " Planned - -
Total 676.8
Key: 1F- Single Flash. B- Binary
11
Direct Uses in Kenya
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Use Installed
Capacity1)
Annual Energy
Use2)
(MWt) (TJ/yr = 1012 J/yr)
Individual Space Heating
District Heating
Air Conditioning (Cooling)
Greenhouse Heating 16 126
Fish Farming
Animal Farming
Agricultural Drying 1 10
Industrial Process Heat
Snow Melting
Bathing and Swimming 5.4 46
Subtotal
Geothermal Heat Pumps
TOTAL 22.4 182
12
Geothermal utilization
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Orpower4 -1998-2016 (139MW) Greenhouse heating
Panoramic view of the Olkaria Geothermal Spa
13
45 MW Olkaria I Power Plant
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
14
105 MW Olkaria II Power Plant
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
15
150 MW Olkaria IV
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
16
Olkaria I Units 4 and 5 (150MW)
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
17
5MW Wellhead Unit at Olkaria
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
18
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
(i) Cut Roses Greenhouse Heating (50 acres), (ii) Fumigation of soils and sterilization of liquid recycled plant fertilizers, (iii) carbon dioxide enrichment
19
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Eburru Geothermal field
20
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Geothermal Outlook: 2015-2017
21
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
• Estimated Potential =
10,000MW
• Installed capacity – 676.8 MWe
• Target by 2017: 1,967MWe
• Target by 2030: 5,000MWe
• Direct use energy growth from
current installed capacity of
22.4MWt to > 200MWt by 2020
Geothermal Growth Projections for Kenya
22
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Additional Power plants at Olkaria • 140 MW Olkaria V –
Ground breaking:
December 2016
• Expected
commissioning
2018
• 70 MW Olkaria 1 AU
6 by
2018/2019
• 140 MW PPP Project
Expected commissioning:
2018/2019
23
Additional capacity at Olkaria
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
46.3 MW Modular power plants (Package 1 &
2)
Advertised 22nd Sep 2016. Closing: 22nd
December 2016 Expected commissioning
2018
24
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Menengai Geothermal field: 105MW Phase 1
• Drilling ongoing for
105MW power plants
• 7 drill rigs being used
• Power plant
commissioning expected in
2017/18
• Additional 60MW plant
expected by 2019
25
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Menengai Geothermal Field
• 30 wells so far drilled
within caldera floor
• Maximum temp ~400oC at
2.3km depth – hottest well
in Kenya!
• Well output of up to
32MWe
• Dry and wet wells present
26
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Drilling Rig at Menengai Field
Photo of one of the 7 rigs currently drilling at Menengai field
27
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Baringo-Silali Geothermal Prospect
• Comprise Baringo,
Korosi, Paka and Silali
prospects
• Planned for 200MWe
Phase 1 development
• Road and water works
under construction
• Drilling expected to
commence in 2017
• Financing from KfW,
UNEP, JICA and
Government of Kenya
28
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Other Geothermal Projects
AGIL, Inc. to start exploration drilling at Longonot
prospect in 2017. Target 70MWe by 2019
GDC to develop Menengai Phase 2 - 60MWe by
2019
AkiiraOne, commenced exploration drilling at SE
Olkaria in 2015. Target 70MWe by 2019.
GDC is planning to undertake exploration drilling in
Suswa in 2017 (150MWe).
29
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Period Research & Development Incl. Surface Exploration & Exploration
Drilling
Field Development
Including Production Drilling & Surface
Equipment
Utilization Funding Type
Direct Electrical Private Public
Million US$ Million US$ Million US$
Million US$
% %
1995-1999 9 5 0 14 0 100
2000-2004 0.1 20 8 194 13 87
2005-2009 1.0 186 0 195 24 76
2010-2014 17 1,004 1 1,137 21 79
Total Investments in Geothermal in 2014
30
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Olkaria Model
KenGen
SURFACE EXPLORATION
EXPLORATION, APPRAISAL AND
PRODUCTION DRILLING
FEASIBILITY STUDY
CONSTRUCTION AND MANAGEMENT
OF STEAM GATHERING SYSTEM
CONSTRUCTION & OPERATION OF
POWER PLANT
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL
MANAGEMENT PLAN
31
GDC Model 1
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
GDC
SURFACE EXPLORATION
EXPLORATION, APPRAISAL AND
PRODUCTION DRILLING
FEASIBILITY STUDY
CONSTRUCTION AND MANAGEMENT
OF STEAM GATHERING SYSTEM
CONSTRUCTION & OPERATION OF
POWER PLANT
PRIVATE
ENTITY
Sale of steam
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL
MANAGEMENT PLAN
GDC & PRIVATE PLAYER
32
GDC Model 2
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
GDC & Private Sector
SURFACE EXPLORATION AND
EXPLORATION DRILLING
EXPLORATION, APPRAISAL AND
PRODUCTION DRILLING
FEASIBILITY STUDY
CONSTRUCTION AND MANAGEMENT
OF STEAM GATHERING SYSTEM
CONSTRUCTION & OPERATION OF
POWER PLANT
PRIVATE
ENTITY
Sale of steam
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL
MANAGEMENT PLAN
GDC & PRIVATE PLAYER
EPC
GDC
33
Conclusions
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
Kenya is the new global investment hub for
geothermal development.
Opportunities include the following:
- Supply of steamfield and power plant
equipment
- Supply of drilling materials and services
- Engineering and scientific consultancies
- EPC contracts
- IPP
34
GROWTH CATALYSTS Resource availability
Bilateral partners support
Regulatory framework – Both Public and Private
sector participation
Government commitment
Expertise and equipment
Environmental management- mitigation of
geothermal dev impacts
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
35
JOH-KGN001-20070825-JvW-P1
THANK YOU