Ken Pryor Department of Meteorology University of Maryland · Introduction o Produced heavy damage...
Transcript of Ken Pryor Department of Meteorology University of Maryland · Introduction o Produced heavy damage...
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The Development of the College Park Tornado of 24
September 2001
Ken PryorDepartment of Meteorology
University of Maryland
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Introduction
o Third in a series of three tornadoes produced by a supercell storm
o Developed 3-4 km southwest of College Park at approximately 2116 UTC, dissipated over eastern Howard County at 2150 UTC
o The supercell tracked 120 km from Stafford County, Virginia to eastern Howard County, Maryland in about 126 minutes
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Introductiono Produced heavy damage from just west of the
campus of University of Maryland to downtown Laurel.
o Damage in Maryland was estimated to be over $73 million :o Univ. of MD: $15 million - 10 destroyed trailers,
several heavily damaged buildings, many tossed and destroyed vehicles and two fatalities.
o U.S. Department of Agriculture Research Center: $41 million
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Previous Research
o 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado:o Strong tornado that had a major impact on
a metropolitan area o Data from multiple radars at close range to
the tornado o Investigate the structure, evolution and the
rotational flows surrounding the tornado as well as the relationship of the radar signatures to tornado intensity
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Previous Research
o Other events that served as a model for this study:o Union City, Oklahoma tornado of 24 May
1973o Stillwater, Oklahoma tornado of 13 June
1975, o Binger, Oklahoma tornado of 22 May 1981
o Identified TVS, low-level reflectivity maximum
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Synoptic Overview
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2000 UTC MM5 Surface Analysis
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MM5 300 mb winds (knots) overlying GOES-8 visible satellite imagery
1915 UTC 2115 UTC
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MM5 700 mb height and winds overlying GOES-8 water vapor image
0015 UTC 25 September 2001
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2200 UTC Surface Analysis: MM5 vs. Observed
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2200 UTC MM5 θe and Winds
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Mesoscale Overview
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Dulles Airport (RAOB) at 1200 UTC
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Dulles Airport (RAOB) at 2100 UTC
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MM5 soundings at 2000 UTC and 2100 UTC
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Radar Morphology
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KLWX WSR-88D
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KLWX WSR-88D
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KLWX WSR-88D
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KBWI TDWR reflectivity
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KBWI TDWR reflectivity
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Time-height section of TCS Delta-V
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KLWX reflectivity cross-section
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Model Prediction
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MM5 simulated radar reflectivity2100 UTC 2130 UTC
2200 UTC 2230 UTC
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MM5 cross sections of theta, cloud liquid water, flow vectors
2000 UTC 2200 UTC
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Conclusions
o GOES imagery revealed many critical elements of the tornadic event o Environment: Buoyancy and Wind Shear
o WSR-88D and TDWR signatures were shown to have utility in detecting and monitoring the College Park tornado:o TCS, echo evolution, flow field
surrounding the tornado
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Conclusions
o The MM5 forecast, initialized at 1200 UTC, captured many observed key factors on the synoptic scale and mesoscale.
o Identified a solitary wave associated with a density current-cold front:o Role in triggering deep convection during
the afternoon of 24 September.
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