Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE

Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICEEnergy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation CentreSchool of Environmental Sciences: University of East AngliaCRedSustainable Energy Conference23rd March 2004

Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology?The ProblemSome of the BarriersWhat is being done? Energy Security - Hard Choices AheadSustainable Technology And Renewability - the STAR of the EAST.

Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology?The Eastern Region the Energy Region of England and Wales.

Good Renewable ProspectsImportant GAS links (Russian Pipe Line).Major Employment Opportunities.

Climate and Energy in the East

Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology?Climate Change - The ProblemFuture Scenarios if we do nothing

Future Global Warming Rates

Chart1

195819581958195819581958315.86195819581958195819581958

195919591959195919591959316.55195919591959195919591959

196019601960196019601960318.18196019601960196019601960

196119611961196119611961318.58196119611961196119611961

196219621962196219621962319.61196219621962196219621962

196319631963196319631963319.74196319631963196319631963

196419641964196419641964320.44196419641964196419641964

196519651965196519651965321.21196519651965196519651965

196619661966196619661966322.4196619661966196619661966

196719671967196719671967322.55196719671967196719671967

196819681968196819681968324.14196819681968196819681968

196919691969196919691969325.89196919691969196919691969

197019701970197019701970326.35197019701970197019701970

197119711971197119711971327.37197119711971197119711971

197219721972197219721972328.05197219721972197219721972

197319731973197319731973330.87197319731973197319731973

197419741974197419741974331.18197419741974197419741974

197519751975197519751975331.91197519751975197519751975

197619761976197619761976333.05197619761976197619761976

197719771977197719771977334.93197719771977197719771977

197819781978197819781978336.54197819781978197819781978

197919791979197919791979337.73197919791979197919791979

198019801980198019801980339.56198019801980198019801980

198119811981198119811981340.49198119811981198119811981

198219821982198219821982342.06198219821982198219821982

198319831983198319831983343.99198319831983198319831983

198419841984198419841984345.4198419841984198419841984

198519851985198519851985346.56198519851985198519851985

198619861986198619861986347.94198619861986198619861986

198719871987198719871987349.52198719871987198719871987

198819881988198819881988352.39198819881988198819881988

198919891989198919891989353.9198919891989198919891989

199019901990199019901990354.82199019901990199019901990

199119911991199119911991356.17199119911991199119911991

199219921992199219921992357.03199219921992199219921992

199319931993199319931993357.57199319931993199319931993

199419941994199419941994359.55199419941994199419941994

199519951995199519951995361.9199519951995199519951995

199619961996199619961996363.65199619961996199619961996

199719971997199719971997364.47199719971997199719971997

199819981998199819981998367.64199819981998199819981998

199919991999199919991999369.25199919991999199919991999

200020002000200020002000370.04200020002000200020002000

200120012001200120012001371.48200120012001200120012001

200220022002200220022002373.87200220022002200220022002

Jan.

Feb.

March

April

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Annual

(ppm)

Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere

Sheet1

Jan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.AnnualAnnual-Fit

1958-99.99-99.99315.71317.45317.5-99.99315.86314.93313.19-99.99313.34314.67-99.99-99.99

1959315.58316.47316.65317.71318.29318.16316.55314.8313.84313.34314.81315.59315.98316

1960316.43316.97317.58319.03320.03319.59318.18315.91314.16313.83315316.19316.91316.91

1961316.89317.7318.54319.48320.58319.78318.58316.79314.99315.31316.1317.01317.65317.63

1962317.94318.56319.69320.58321.01320.61319.61317.4316.26315.42316.69317.69318.45318.46

1963318.74319.08319.86321.39322.24321.47319.74317.77316.21315.99317.07318.36318.99319.02

1964319.57-99.99-99.99-99.99322.23321.89320.44318.7316.7316.87317.68318.71-99.99319.52

1965319.44320.44320.89322.13322.16321.87321.21318.87317.81317.3318.87319.42320.03320.09

1966320.62321.59322.39323.7324.07323.75322.4320.37318.64318.1319.79321.03321.37321.34

1967322.33322.5323.04324.42325324.09322.55320.92319.26319.39320.72321.96322.18322.13

1968322.57323.15323.89325.02325.57325.36324.14322.11320.33320.25321.32322.9323.05323.11

1969324324.42325.64326.66327.38326.7325.89323.67322.38321.78322.85324.12324.62324.6

1970325.06325.98326.93328.13328.07327.66326.35324.69323.1323.07324.01325.13325.68325.65

1971326.17326.68327.18327.78328.92328.57327.37325.43323.36323.56324.8326.01326.32326.32

1972326.77327.63327.75329.72330.07329.09328.05326.32324.84325.2326.5327.55327.46327.52

1973328.54329.56330.3331.5332.48332.07330.87329.31327.51327.18328.16328.64329.68329.61

1974329.35330.71331.48332.65333.09332.25331.18329.4327.44327.37328.46329.58330.25330.29

1975330.4331.41332.04333.31333.96333.59331.91330.06328.56328.34329.49330.76331.15331.16

1976331.74332.56333.5334.58334.87334.34333.05330.94329.3328.94330.31331.68332.15332.18

1977332.92333.42334.7336.07336.74336.27334.93332.75331.58331.16332.4333.85333.9333.88

1978334.97335.39336.64337.76338.01337.89336.54334.68332.76332.54333.92334.95335.5335.52

1979336.23336.76337.96338.89339.47339.29337.73336.09333.91333.86335.29336.73336.85336.89

1980338.01338.36340.08340.77341.46341.17339.56337.6335.88336.01337.1338.21338.69338.67

1981339.23340.47341.38342.51342.91342.25340.49338.43336.69336.85338.36339.61339.93339.95

1982340.75341.61342.7343.56344.13343.35342.06339.82337.97337.86339.26340.49341.13341.09

1983341.37342.52343.1344.94345.75345.32343.99342.39339.86339.99341.16342.99342.78342.75

1984343.7344.51345.28347.08347.43346.79345.4343.28341.07341.35342.98344.22344.42344.44

1985344.97346347.43348.35348.93348.25346.56344.69343.09342.8344.24345.56345.9345.86

1986346.29346.96347.86349.55350.21349.54347.94345.91344.86344.17345.66346.9347.15347.14

1987348.02348.47349.42350.99351.84351.25349.52348.1346.44346.36347.81348.96348.93348.99

1988350.43351.72352.22353.59354.22353.79352.39350.44348.72348.88350.07351.34351.48351.44

1989352.76353.07353.68355.42355.67355.13353.9351.67349.8349.99351.3352.53352.91352.94

1990353.66354.7355.39356.2357.16356.22354.82352.91350.96351.18352.83354.21354.19354.19

1991354.72355.75357.16358.6359.34358.24356.17354.03352.16352.21353.75354.99355.59355.62

1992355.98356.72357.81359.15359.66359.25357.03355353.01353.31354.16355.4356.37356.36

1993356.7357.16358.38359.46360.28359.6357.57355.52353.7353.98355.33356.8357.04357.1

1994358.36358.91359.97361.26361.68360.95359.55357.49355.84355.99357.58359.04358.88358.86

1995359.96361361.64363.45363.79363.26361.9359.46358.06357.75359.56360.7360.88360.9

1996362.05363.25364.03364.72365.41364.97363.65361.49359.46359.6360.76362.33362.64362.58

1997363.18364364.57366.35366.79365.62364.47362.51360.19360.77362.43364.28363.76363.84

1998365.32366.15367.31368.61369.3368.87367.64365.77363.9364.23365.46366.97366.63366.58

1999368.15368.86369.58371.12370.97370.33369.25366.91364.6365.09366.63367.96368.29368.28

2000369.08369.4370.45371.59371.75371.62370.04368.04366.54366.63368.2369.43369.4369.39

2001370.17371.39372372.75373.88373.17371.48369.42367.83367.96369.55371.1370.89370.91

2002372.29372.94373.38374.71375.4375.26373.87371.35370.57370.1371.93373.63372.95372.93

Sheet1

Jan.

Feb.

March

April

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Annual

(ppm)

Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere

hawaii

YearJan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.AnnualAnnual-Fit

1958-99.99-99.99315.71317.45317.5-99.99315.86314.93313.19-99.99313.34314.67-99.99-99.99

1959315.58316.47316.65317.71318.29318.16316.55314.8313.84313.34314.81315.59315.98316

1960316.43316.97317.58319.03320.03319.59318.18315.91314.16313.83315316.19316.91316.91

1961316.89317.7318.54319.48320.58319.78318.58316.79314.99315.31316.1317.01317.65317.63

1962317.94318.56319.69320.58321.01320.61319.61317.4316.26315.42316.69317.69318.45318.46

1963318.74319.08319.86321.39322.24321.47319.74317.77316.21315.99317.07318.36318.99319.02

1964319.57-99.99-99.99-99.99322.23321.89320.44318.7316.7316.87317.68318.71-99.99319.52

1965319.44320.44320.89322.13322.16321.87321.21318.87317.81317.3318.87319.42320.03320.09

1966320.62321.59322.39323.7324.07323.75322.4320.37318.64318.1319.79321.03321.37321.34

1967322.33322.5323.04324.42325324.09322.55320.92319.26319.39320.72321.96322.18322.13

1968322.57323.15323.89325.02325.57325.36324.14322.11320.33320.25321.32322.9323.05323.11

1969324324.42325.64326.66327.38326.7325.89323.67322.38321.78322.85324.12324.62324.6

1970325.06325.98326.93328.13328.07327.66326.35324.69323.1323.07324.01325.13325.68325.65

1971326.17326.68327.18327.78328.92328.57327.37325.43323.36323.56324.8326.01326.32326.32

1972326.77327.63327.75329.72330.07329.09328.05326.32324.84325.2326.5327.55327.46327.52

1973328.54329.56330.3331.5332.48332.07330.87329.31327.51327.18328.16328.64329.68329.61

1974329.35330.71331.48332.65333.09332.25331.18329.4327.44327.37328.46329.58330.25330.29

1975330.4331.41332.04333.31333.96333.59331.91330.06328.56328.34329.49330.76331.15331.16

1976331.74332.56333.5334.58334.87334.34333.05330.94329.3328.94330.31331.68332.15332.18

1977332.92333.42334.7336.07336.74336.27334.93332.75331.58331.16332.4333.85333.9333.88

1978334.97335.39336.64337.76338.01337.89336.54334.68332.76332.54333.92334.95335.5335.52

1979336.23336.76337.96338.89339.47339.29337.73336.09333.91333.86335.29336.73336.85336.89

1980338.01338.36340.08340.77341.46341.17339.56337.6335.88336.01337.1338.21338.69338.67

1981339.23340.47341.38342.51342.91342.25340.49338.43336.69336.85338.36339.61339.93339.95

1982340.75341.61342.7343.56344.13343.35342.06339.82337.97337.86339.26340.49341.13341.09

1983341.37342.52343.1344.94345.75345.32343.99342.39339.86339.99341.16342.99342.78342.75

1984343.7344.51345.28347.08347.43346.79345.4343.28341.07341.35342.98344.22344.42344.44

1985344.97346347.43348.35348.93348.25346.56344.69343.09342.8344.24345.56345.9345.86

1986346.29346.96347.86349.55350.21349.54347.94345.91344.86344.17345.66346.9347.15347.14

1987348.02348.47349.42350.99351.84351.25349.52348.1346.44346.36347.81348.96348.93348.99

1988350.43351.72352.22353.59354.22353.79352.39350.44348.72348.88350.07351.34351.48351.44

1989352.76353.07353.68355.42355.67355.13353.9351.67349.8349.99351.3352.53352.91352.94

1990353.66354.7355.39356.2357.16356.22354.82352.91350.96351.18352.83354.21354.19354.19

1991354.72355.75357.16358.6359.34358.24356.17354.03352.16352.21353.75354.99355.59355.62

1992355.98356.72357.81359.15359.66359.25357.03355353.01353.31354.16355.4356.37356.36

1993356.7357.16358.38359.46360.28359.6357.57355.52353.7353.98355.33356.8357.04357.1

1994358.36358.91359.97361.26361.68360.95359.55357.49355.84355.99357.58359.04358.88358.86

1995359.96361361.64363.45363.79363.26361.9359.46358.06357.75359.56360.7360.88360.9

1996362.05363.25364.03364.72365.41364.97363.65361.49359.46359.6360.76362.33362.64362.58

1997363.18364364.57366.35366.79365.62364.47362.51360.19360.77362.43364.28363.76363.84

1998365.32366.15367.31368.61369.3368.87367.64365.77363.9364.23365.46366.97366.63366.58

1999368.15368.86369.58371.12370.97370.33369.25366.91364.6365.09366.63367.96368.29368.28

2000369.08369.4370.45371.59371.75371.62370.04368.04366.54366.63368.2369.43369.4369.39

2001370.17371.39372372.75373.88373.17371.48369.42367.83367.96369.55371.1370.89370.91

2002372.29372.94373.38374.71375.4375.26373.87371.35370.57370.1371.93373.63372.95372.93

Monthly values areexpressed inparts per million (ppm) andreported in the 1999SIO manometricmole

fraction scale. The monthly values have beenadjusted to the 15thof eachmonth.Missing values are

denoted by-99.99.The "annual"averageis thearithmetic mean of the twelve monthly values. Inyears

withone ortwo missing monthlyvalues,annualvalueswere calculated by substituting afit value

(4-harmonics withgain factor and spline) forthat month andthen averaging the twelve monthlyvalues.

I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems

Reasons for Concern I II III IV VIIRisks from Extreme Climatic EventsIIIDistribution of ImpactsIVAggregate ImpactsVRisks from Future Large Scale Discontinuities

Assumptions: 20% renewable generation by 2020, Demand stabilizes at 420 TWH in 7 years Electricity Scenarios for UK and implications on CO2 emissions.20 year growth in demand1.8-2% per annum2.2% in 2003

Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology?The Government ResponseLegislative Barriers

Government ResponseEnergy White Paper aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s ( but no indication of how this will be undertaken)

There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.- Energy White Paper: February 2003

UK Renewables Obligation > 10.4% by 2010in 2003 - 2004 -----4.3%, but in practice barely 3%Announced on 11th March 2004 - 3.139 p per kWh Revision of Building Regulations brought forwardEU Biofuels Directive for Transport2005 (2%) >>> 5.75% in 2010 Carbon Emission Trading - National Allocation Plans to be in place by 31st March 2004.

Legislative Barriers to SustainabilityCarbon Emission Trading - UK National Allocation PlanSeveral Serious FlawsDoes not reward Early ActionBased purely on Historical EmissionsShould be based (at least in part) on Technology employedFails to address issue of improved Load Factors of CHP where these are subsequently associated with adsorption chillingDoes not reward efforts towards energy conservation in past. Restrictions on Grants (Heat Recovery Heat Pumps)up to 80% of heat energy can be needed for ventilationexcluded from grants unless incorporated in a ground loop recovery system.

The Elizabeth Fry BuildingHeating provided by two domestic sized boilers.Energy requirement 20% of good practice for Academic Buildings.

Elizabeth Fry performance has improved over years. ZICER will be better and less than 70% of emissions of mid 90s best practice buildingPhotovoltaic cells will generate ~ 34 kW and save 20 tonnes CO2 per annum.Projected Performance of ZICER

Chart1

359

30.15.022

21.54.65

electricity

gas

kg CO2/m2/yr

Sheet1

0.2604166667

19527.0912

42048

700.4330.1500.4321.5

270.1865.022250.1864.65

35.12226.15

electricitygas

Elizabeth Fry (New)359

Elizabeth Fry (2002)30.15.022

ZICER21.54.65

Sheet1

00

00

00

electricity

gas

kg CO2/m2/yr

Sheet2

Sheet3

Performance of Elizabeth Fry and ZICERProblems with Building RegulationsNo incentive to improve: 8 out of 10 is really 8 out of 17.7Optional Renewable/Conservation Packages for New Homes?

Chart1

68.30849768591.1897273943

60.43375978121.6684834743

51.16181238092.3194867134

39.10591773653.3698176588

31.23268641644.2485159328

28.02321202274.672338786

23.10686871365.4263301286

127.9873687856

7.1710

105.022

104.65

1976

1990

1985

2002

1994

Elizabeth FryZICER

Theorectical Perfection in 2002 Regulations

pre-war

1955

1965

Carbon Index

kg CO2/m2/yr

Variation of Carbon Emission and Carbon Index with Building Regulations

Sheet1

17.79

900.1118174150.111817415

800.57219011710.5721901171

601.69663874651.6966387465

403.2814600783.281460078

205.9907300395.990730039

108.78.7

89.57219011719.5721901171

710.094117639910

610.696638746510

511.40926996110

412.28146007810

313.405908707510

214.99073003910

117.710

0.000153.710

pre war68.30849768591.18972739431.189727394368.308

195560.43375978121.66848347431.668483474360.434

196551.1622.31948671342.319486713451.162

197639.1063.36981765883.369817658839.106

198531.2334.24851593284.248515932831.233

199028.02321202274.6723387864.67233878628.023

199423.10686871365.42633012865.426330128623.107

2002127.98736878567.987368785612.000

7.1710.000327599107.170

Elizabeth Fry5.02211.3921096246105.0225.022

ZICER4.6511.692923424104.6504.65

Sheet1

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Sheet2

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

Sheet3

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

1976

1990

1985

2002

1994

Elizabeth FryZICER


pre-war

1955

1965

Carbon Index

kg CO2/m2/yr


00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

2002

Elizabeth FryZICER


Carbon Index

kg CO2/m2/yr

Variation of Carbon Emission and Carbon Index problems with current Building Regulations

Chart2

68.30849768591.1897273943

60.43375978121.6684834743

51.16181238092.3194867134

39.10591773653.3698176588

31.23268641644.2485159328

28.02321202274.672338786

23.10686871365.4263301286

127.9873687856

7.1710

105.022

104.65

2002

Elizabeth FryZICER


Carbon Index

kg CO2/m2/yr


Sheet1

17.79

900.1118174150.111817415

800.57219011710.5721901171

601.69663874651.6966387465

403.2814600783.281460078

205.9907300395.990730039

108.78.7

89.57219011719.5721901171

710.094117639910

610.696638746510

511.40926996110

412.28146007810

313.405908707510

214.99073003910

117.710

0.000153.710

pre war68.30849768591.18972739431.189727394368.308

195560.43375978121.66848347431.668483474360.434

196551.1622.31948671342.319486713451.162

197639.1063.36981765883.369817658839.106

198531.2334.24851593284.248515932831.233

199028.02321202274.6723387864.67233878628.023

199423.10686871365.42633012865.426330128623.107

2002127.98736878567.987368785612.000

7.1710.000327599107.170

Elizabeth Fry5.02211.3921096246105.0225.022

ZICER4.6511.692923424104.6504.65

Sheet1

Sheet2

Sheet3

1976

1990

1985

2002

1994

Elizabeth FryZICER


pre-war

1955

1965

Carbon Index

kg CO2/m2/yr


2002

Elizabeth FryZICER


Carbon Index

kg CO2/m2/yr


Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology?The Community ResponseTechnical SolutionsRenwable EnergyEnergy ConservationThe CRed Project Awareness Raising.

How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?5 hot air balloons per person per year.300 million each year for UK.On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.The Right LanguageCRed

A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging up to 25 kg CO2 a yearStandby on television > 60 kg per yearFilling up with petrol (~30 for a full tank) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one balloon)How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) emits as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour

1.6 miles

CRedSome facts:

Solar Energy - The BroadSol ProjectAverage daily Solar Gain to March 21st ~ 1.6 kWhSolar Collectors installed 26th January 2004

Duke Street RenovationNorwich led the way in 1940s: First ever Heat Pump Opportunity to reinstate a heat pump in the same building that John Sumner did his pioneering work.

Wind Turbines at UEA?Yare Valley Society have been universally opposed to any development in Yare Valley.BUT Using a careful consultation, opinions changed.

Emphasised turbines from BroadOn their questionnaire - 21% voted50% in favour

Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology?Difficult Choices Ahead

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable MethodsDifficult Choices Ahead

Sheet1

potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +

nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

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potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020

Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +

nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p

Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p

Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p

Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed

Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then

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Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycost in 2020Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020

On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2pOn Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p

Off Shore25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3pOff shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p

Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3pHydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ pPhotovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p

Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8pWave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barragesunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenTidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed

Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenGeothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then

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Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply after 2050Projected costs in 2020

On shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now and cost effective~ 2p

Off Shore Wind25-50%Technical developments needed- research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20 000 on shore.3 - 5 p

Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic50%Available but much research needed to bring down costsgreater than 10p

Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%Available - research needed in some area - competition with crops for petrol/diesel substitutes2.5 - 4 p

Wave/ Tidal Stream~100%Technology limited - extensive development unlike before 2015 - 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barrages~10%Technology available, costly, major environmental problems, unavailable before 2015 - 2020not costed in Energy Review

Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2040+

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Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supplycosts in 2020

On Shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now~2 p

Off Shore Wind25-50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20000 on shore3 - 5p

Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5-3p

Photovoltaic50%Available. But much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+p

Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%+available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4p

Wave/ Tidal Stream100%technology limited - extensive development unlikely before 2015 - 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barrages10%technology available, but costly - unlikely without Government interventionnot costed

Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2030 if then

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Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020

On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p

Off shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p

Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p

Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed


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Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costedTidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed


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Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costedTidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed


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Wave/ Tidal Str

Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE

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Transcript of Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE