Keeping You Current - May 2009
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Transcript of Keeping You Current - May 2009
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May 2009
Madeleine Romanello
Keeping You Current
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Many analysts believe that if the world
economy is going to rebound, the recoverywill begin with U.S. housing.
- Don Miller, Associate EditorMoney Morning
Source: Seeking Alpha 4/09/09
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Sales month over month
Category Percent
ageExistingSales
- 3Pending
Sales
2.1
NewConstruction
- 0.6
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On a month-over-month basis, the totaltransaction count increased 21%, its
largest increase during the month of
February since 2004.
Source: Radar Logic 4/23/09
RPX Monthly Housing Report
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Source: Seeking Alpha 4/08/09
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Don't Hunt for the BottomPinpointing a bottom in home prices is very
difficult, akin to picking the bottom
in the stock market. But dataand research indicate we're
getting close."
Wall Street Journal
Source: Wall Street Journal 4/18/09
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Interest Rates
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4/23/2009
Mortgage Rates 30 year fixed
Source: Federal Reserve
1/1/2009
Asset PurchaseAnnouncement
Asset PurchasesBegin
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Mortgaging
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Jumbo LoansJumbo Loans
Source: Market Watch 4/05/09
Bank of America recently began trumpeting jumbo programs,
offering 30-year fixed-rate jumbo mortgages with rates in the
high 5% range.
"To be honest, I'm not certain if [the low rates] will be around for
a while," Paola A. Kielblock, national product specialist forFairway Independent Mortgage said.
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Foreclosures
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Thousands of
mortgage loans that
were supposed to
reset at a higher ratethis spring won't be
changing, putting off
the grim threat of
foreclosure orbankruptcy for many
Americans by as
much as a year.
Source: Business Week 4/16/09
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A total of803,489
properties entered
some stage offoreclosure
during the first
quarter, and a
growing numberof these properties
are more expensive
homes.
Source: Realty Trac 4/09
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Source: OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report 4/3/09
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Source: OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report 4/3/09
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(A higher monthly payment)
increases the probability of a 90-day
delinquency by 7 to 11 percent,
depending on the borrower.
By contrast, a 1-percentage-point
increase in the unemployment rate
raises this probability by 10-20 percent,
while a 10-percentage-point fall in house
prices raises it
by more than half.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 4/13/09
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Jobless Rate
Source: Wall Street Journal 4/18/09
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Source: Global Insight 2008 4th Quarter Report 4/09
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Source: San Francisco Chronicle.com 4/08/09
Shadow Inventory?
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Pricing
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Source: Seeking Alpha, Tom Iacono 4/24/09
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-04-09-vacanthomes_N.htm -
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Source: Seeking Alpha, Tom Iacono 4/24/09
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Source: Altos Research & Real IQ 4/08/09
List Prices
The 10-City Composite Index was up 1.1% duringMarch and is also up 1.1% for the first quarter since
prices were effectively flat in January and February.
This represents the first monthly and quarterly increase
in listing prices since inception of the Composite Indexin January 2008.
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U.S. House Prices
will Drop Another
12.5%Before Hitting Bottom
The Fitch
Report
Source: Fitch.com 4/23/09
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- Jeannine Cataldi, senior economist
and manager of IHS Global Insight's
Regional Real Estate Service
"We expect prices to decline further through
2009 as consumers remain wary of taking on
housing debt in these uncertain economicconditions.
Source: IHS Global Insight 1Q Report 4/20/09
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We believe there is another 16% to go
in pricing before we hit the bottom.
- Karen Weaver, Deutsche Bank
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Whitney is known both for her bearish calls, and
thus far, for being largely correct. Which makes
her predictions worth paying attention to.
Source: Housing Wire 4/07/09
Analyst Meredith Whitney, well-known for her work at
Oppenheimer & Co. and now at her own firm, told cable
television news outlet CNBC that
she expects home prices to fall another 30%.
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http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-04-09-vacanthomes_N.htm