KBC Group Organisation...Current situation (at end 1Q12) Including State core capital securities of...
Transcript of KBC Group Organisation...Current situation (at end 1Q12) Including State core capital securities of...
May 2012
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This company presentation is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security issued by KBC. A decision to purchase or sell our securities should be made only on the basis of a prospectus or offering memorandum prepared for that purpose and on the information contained or incorporated by reference therein.
KBC believes that this presentation is reliable, although some information is summarised and therefore incomplete. Financial data is generally unaudited. KBC cannot be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from the use of the information.
This presentation contains non-IFRS information and forward-looking statements with respect to the strategy, earnings and capital trends of KBC, involving numerous assumptions and uncertainties. The risk exists that these statements may not be fulfilled and that future developments may differ materially. Moreover, KBC does not undertake to update the presentation in line with new developments.
Much of the information in these slides relates to the KBC Group and may not, therefore, be wholly relevant to the performance or financial condition of KBC Bank and its subsidiaries. Those interested in KBC Bank should not place undue reliance or attach too great importance to the information contained in these slides relating to KBC Group.
By reading this presentation, each investor is deemed to represent that they understand and agree to the foregoing restrictions.
Important information for investors
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Main strengths of KBC Group
• Well-developed bancassurance strategy and strong cross-selling capabilities • Strong franchise in Belgium with high and stable return levels (ROAC of 37% in 1Q12) • Access to growth in ‘new Europe’ (most mature markets in the region)
• Strongly improved underlying 1Q12 results: 455m EUR, thanks to markedly lower impairments and strong dealing room income. Core profitability in home markets remains intact in difficult conditions. We are sticking to our guidance for loan loss provisions in Ireland of 500-600m EUR for the full year 2012
• Decisive progress on divestments, with capital gains to come in 2H12
• Further reduction of volatile elements: • CDO/ABS exposure further reduced by roughly 2.2bn EUR notional in 1Q12 • PIIGS exposure further down by 42% since the end of 2011
• Strong capital position: pro forma core tier-1 ratio of 13.6% at KBC Group, which is a significant improvement compared to the end of last year. First 500m EUR repayment to the Federal Government in January 2012 at 15% premium. Working towards further repayment(s) in 2012
• Strong liquidity position: Unencumbered assets are double the amount of the net recourse on short-term wholesale funding maturing in 1 year
• Funding needs 2012 covered and additional buffer in place thanks to the issuance of 2.25bn EUR unsecured long-term debt (1.25bn EUR 2y and 1.0bn EUR 5y), strong growth in customer deposits (+4% q-o-q) and additional buffer established with participation in LTRO2
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Strategy and business profile of KBC Group
Financial performance of KBC Group
Asset quality of KBC Bank
Liquidity and solvency of KBC Bank
Wrap-up
Appendices
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Contents
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KBC at a glance KBC Group has a successful track record in bancassurance in its domestic market of Belgium
and has been expanding to Central & Eastern Europe over the last 10 years
Key data on KBC Group Total market cap (11 May 2012): 5bn EUR Total assets: 291bn EUR at the end of 1Q12 Total equity: 18bn EUR Tier-1 ratio: 13.1% (11.4% core)
Key data on KBC Bank Total assets: 247bn EUR at the end of 1Q12 Total equity: 13bn EUR Tier-1 ratio: 12.1% (10.1% core)
Credit ratings of KBC Bank
Underlying net group profit of KBC Group in 1Q12: 455m EUR, strongly improved q-o-q
thanks to markedly lower impairments and strong dealing room income
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S&P (Dec 2011)
Moody’s (Feb 2012)
Fitch (Jan 2012)
Long-term A- / Stable A1 / under review, down A- / Stable
Short-term A-2 Prime-1 F1
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• Over 50% of KBC shares are owned by a syndicate of core shareholders, providing continuity to pursue long-term strategic goals. Committed shareholders include the Cera / KBC Ancora Group (co-operative investment company), the Belgian farmers’ association (MRBB) and a group of industrialist families
• The free float is held mainly by a large variety of international institutional investors
41%
11%
13%
23%
7%
FREE FLOAT
MRBB
KBC Group (Treasury shares) 5%
Other Core
KBC Ancora
Cera
Stable shareholder structure
Group’s legal structure
Group’s legal structure
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Overview of capital transactions with the Belgian State and the Flemish Regional Government
KBC Group NV
KBL EPB (The sale has already been announced)
KBC Bank KBC Insurance
99.9% 100% 100%
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Business profile of KBC Group
KBC is a leading player (retail and SME bancassurance, private banking, commercial and local investment banking) in Belgium and our 4 core countries in CEE
26%
Group Centre 22%
Merchant Banking (incl. Belgian corporates, Ireland and International activities) 31%
Central and Eastern Europe 21%
Retail, SMEs and Private Banking Belgium
Breakdown of capital allocation as of 31 March 2012 per business unit
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Market shares of KBC Bank in core markets
Belgium* Czech
Republic Slovakia Hungary Bulgaria (Inhabitants) (10 million) (10 million) (5 million) (10 million) (8 million)
Loans and deposits 19% 20%** 10% 9% 3%
Investment funds 41% 31% 10% 20% -
Market shares, as of end 2011***
* Excluding Centea and Fidea ** Including 55% of the joint venture with CMSS *** Market shares are based on preliminary figures
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% of assets 2011a 2012e 2013e
SK 2% +3.3% +1.5% +2.2%
BE 57% +1.9% +0.2% +1.4%
CZ 13% +1.7% 0.0% +2.0%
BG 1% +2.1% +1.2% +2.5%
HU 3% +1.7% -0.3% +1.0%
Real GDP growth outlook for core markets Source: KBC data, May 2012
KBC’s geographical presence
KBC’S CORE MARKETS Belgium (Moody’s Aa3) Total assets: 167bn EUR
Czech Republic (A1) Total assets: 39bn EUR
Hungary (Ba1) Total assets: 9bn EUR
Slovakia (A2) Total assets: 6bn EUR
Bulgaria (Baa2) Total assets: 1bn EUR
SPAIN
FRANCE
BELGIUM
NETHERLANDS
GERMANY CZECH REP
POLAND
SLOVAKIA
HUNGARY
SERBIA BULGARIA
ROMANIA
RUSSIA
UK
IRELAND
ITALY
GREECE
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
ESTONIA
Macroeconomic outlook Based on GDP, CPI and unemployment trends Inspired by Financial Times
KBC’s core markets In Belgium and CEE-4
KBC’S NON-CORE MARKETS
Ireland (Moody’s Ba1) Total assets: 19bn EUR
Poland (A2) Total assets: 12bn EUR
Russia (Baa1) Total assets: 2.3bn EUR
Serbia (not rated) Total assets: 0.3bn EUR
Romania (Baa3) Total assets: 0.03bn EUR
PORTUGAL
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Current situation (at end 1Q12)
Including State core capital securities of 6.5bn EUR, the core tier-1 ratio for KBC Group was at a comfortable 11.4% level at the end of 1Q12. At KBC Bank, the core tier-1 ratio amounted to 10.1% at the end of 1Q12
4. New Team & Strategy
1. Adequate Capital
2. Mitigated ‘Toxic’ risk
3. Adequate Loan Quality
Remaining structured credit risk is largely covered by a State guarantee* in order to prevent new market turbulences putting the capital position at risk again
2011 and 2010 loan losses were significantly lower than in 2009 We are sticking to our guidance for loan loss provisions in Ireland
of 500-600m EUR for the full year 2012
The new management team is implementing a new strategy, focusing on core businesses and structurally reducing risk, whilst maintaining sound growth/returns
* Additional disclosure in appendices 10
Strategy and business profile of KBC Group
Financial performance of KBC Group
Asset quality of KBC Bank
Liquidity and solvency of KBC Bank
Wrap-up
Appendices
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Contents
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Earnings capacity
38013
1Q12 FY11 FY10
1,860
FY09
-2,466
FY08
-2,484
FY07
3,281
FY06
3,430
Reported net profit
4559696220
1Q12 FY11
1,800
1,098
290
FY10
1,710
FY09
1,724
FY08
2,270
FY07
3,143
FY06
2,548
Underlying net profit Underlying gross operating income (pre-impairments)
Amounts in EUR million for KBC Group
879
1Q12 FY11*
3,830
FY10
3,912
FY09
4,223
FY08
3,581
FY07
4,317
FY06
3,762
Core earnings power intact, with a significantly reduced risk profile (trading), despite drastic RWA reduction (including B2.5 impact) since the end of 2008: 36.2bn EUR per end 2011 and 44.5bn per end 1Q12
Excl. exceptional items Excl. exceptional items and cyclical
effects of credit provisions
* FY11 with neutralisation of impact of 5-5-5 bonds One-off impairments for Bulgaria
Impact new FX law Hungary
Impact 5-5-5 product
Impairments Greek government bonds
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Good level of net interest income Net interest income from lending and deposit-taking fell by 4% y-o-y in 2011, largely due to divestments
(Centea and Secura) and the reduced government bond portfolio. Excluding Centea and Secura, net interest income fell by 2% y-o-y in 2011. The NIM increased 4bps y-o-y to 1.96% at the end of 2011, partly thanks to some technical items. The NIM in 1Q12 amounted to 1.93%
Higher loan volumes in 2011 compared to year-earlier level (+2%). Increase in volume of Belgian and CEE retail loans (+6% y-o-y) partly offset by intentional scaling down in Russia and international corporate loan book. In 1Q12, loan volumes rose by 3% y-o-y on a comparable basis. In 2011, customer deposits were down by 14% y-o-y for the group due to outflows of corporate and institutional investors outside core markets linked to EUR-zone and Belgium risk aversion (fully situated in Merchant Banking), with Belgium posting a 5% growth and CEE 4%. Note that deposit volumes in the Merchant Banking BU recovered 18% q-o-q in 1Q12
+12% +10%
+16bp -4bp
Underlying net interest income (worldwide)
Net interest margin (worldwide)
Amounts in EUR million for KBC Group
1Q12
1,211
FY11
5,404
FY10
5,603
FY09
5,497
FY08
4,910
FY07
4,459
1Q12
1.93%
FY11
1.96%
FY10
1.92%
FY09
1.84%
FY08
1.68%
FY07
1.72%
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+8bp +2%
-4% +4bp
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Continued tight cost control, loan loss provisions significantly lower
Lower operating expenses (-3% y-o-y) in 2011, reflecting divestments and deduction from the Hungarian banking tax related to the FX mortgage impairments. Excluding all these and other one-off items, operating expenses rose by 3% y-o-y due to inflation-linked expenses. In 1Q12, operating expenses also rose by 3% y-o-y, excluding one-offs
In 2011, loan loss provisions were significantly lower (-10% y-o-y): consistently low in the Belgium BU and substantially lower in Group Centre. Sharply higher loan losses in CEE (-137m EUR y-o-y), driven mainly by Bulgaria and Hungary (FX measures in 2H11). Loan losses in Merchant Banking remained at a high level in 2011, mainly attributable to KBC Bank Ireland. In 1Q12, substantially lower impairments were recorded, despite the 195m EUR loan losses booked at KBC Bank Ireland (in line with guidance)
-13% +8%
+194%
+146%
Amounts in EUR million for KBC Group
Underlying operating expenses (worldwide)
Underlying loan loss provisions (worldwide)
1Q12
1,110
FY11
4,686
FY10
4,832
FY09
4,888
FY08
5,591
FY07
5,164
261
641
185
1Q12 FY11
1,335
FY10
1,481
FY09
1,883
FY08 FY07
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Amounts in EUR million for KBC Group
-1% -20%
-3% -10%
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Loan loss experience at KBC
1Q12 credit cost
ratio
FY 2011 credit cost
ratio
FY 2010 credit cost
ratio
FY 2009 credit cost
ratio
Average ‘99 –’10
Peak ‘99 –’10
Belgium -0.02% 0.10% 0.15% 0.15% 0.16% 0.31%
CEE 0.60% 1.59%* 1.16% 2.11% 1.05% 2.75%
Merchant 1.57%** 1.36%** 1.38%** 1.19% 0.55% 1.38%** Group Centre 0.34% 0.32% 1.17% 1.58%
Total 0.66%*** 0.82% 0.91% 1.11% 0.45% 1.11%
Credit cost ratio: amount of losses incurred on troubled loans as a % of total average outstanding loan portfolio
* The high credit cost ratio at CEE is attributable entirely to Bulgaria (very illiquid domestic real estate market) and K&H Bank (impact of new law on FX
mortgages) in 2H11
** The high credit cost ratio at Merchant Banking is due in full to KBC Bank Ireland
*** Credit cost ratio fell to 0.66% in 1Q12 (from 0.82% in FY11). Excluding KBC Bank Ireland, the credit cost ratio stood at a very low 0.18% in 1Q12
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Satisfying FY results in home markets
2011
1.0
0.8
0.1 0.1
2010
1.1
2009
1.1
2008
1.1
2007
1.4
2006
1.1
2005
1.1
Underlying net profit Belgium (retail)
2011
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.1 0.1
2010
0.6
2009
0.2
2008
0.5
2007
0.6
2006
0.4
2005
0.3
Underlying net profit CEE
2011
-0.1
2010
0.1
2009
0.3
2008
0.5
2007
1.0
2006
0.9
2005
0.8
Underlying net profit Merchant Banking (BE +Intl) (affected by Ireland)
2011 ROAC: 27%
Amounts in bn EUR
Underlying performance
Consistent performer 2011 ROAC: 11%
Impact 5-5-5 product Impairments Greek government bonds One-off impairments Bulgaria
Impact new FX law Hungary
Impairments Greek government bonds
Consistent performer
Underlying net profit MEB excluding Ireland
2011
0.34
0.21
0.11
0.02
2010
0.34
2009
0.25
2008
0.38
MEB underlying net profit excluding Ireland
Impact 5-5-5 product
Impairments Greek government bonds
Consistent performer
Strategy and business profile of KBC Group
Financial performance of KBC Group
Asset quality of KBC Bank
Liquidity and solvency of KBC Bank
Wrap-up
Appendices
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Contents
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Parent shareholders’ equity: 12bn EUR
Tangible & intangible fixed assets (incl. Investment property): 4bn EUR
Loan book: 136bn EUR (Loans and advances to customers)
Trading assets: 22bn EUR
Investment portfolio: 41bn EUR
Funding and deposit base: 171bn EUR
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Balance sheet risks? (KBC Bank consolidated at end 1Q12)
1. Credit quality
Total Assets: 247bn EUR Total Liabilities & Equity: 247bn EUR
2. Trading exposure
3. ‘Toxic’ assets
4. Sovereign bonds
Capital adequacy
Liquidity position
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Other (incl. interbank loans): 44bn EUR
Trading liabilities: 20bn EUR
Other (incl. interbank deposits): 44bn EUR
Tangible & intangible fixed assets
Loan book (loans & advances to customers)
Trading assets
Investment portfolio
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Credit quality
1. Credit quality (esp. in CEE)
Total Assets Customer loan book: 136bn EUR at end 1Q12
• 40% residential mortgages
• 2% consumer finance
• 10% other retail loans
• 48% SME/corporate loans
Largely sold through own branches
Total NPL at 5.2% at end 1Q12 (5.6% in CEE)
NPL cover ratio at 63% at end 1Q12 (70% in CEE)
2. Trading exposure
3. ‘Toxic’ assets
4. Sovereign bonds
4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
1Q12 4Q11
0.3%
4.9%
3Q11
0.3%
4.6%
2Q11
0.1%
4.3% 5.0
1Q11
0.1%
4.2%
4Q10
0.1%
4.1%
3Q10
0.3%
4.0%
2Q10
0.1%
3.7%
1Q10
0.2%
3.6%
5.2% 5.5
0.3%
NPL formation NPL ratio
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Other (incl. interbank loans)
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Ireland Irish loan book – key figures as at 31 March 2012
Loan portfolio Outstanding NPL NPL coverage
Owner occupied mortgages
9.5bn 14.8% 28%
Buy to let mortgages 3.2bn 24.3% 39%
SME /corporate 2.0bn 20.3% 55%
Real estate investment Real estate development
1.4bn 0.5bn
26.7% 83.4%
53% 72%
16.6bn 20.5% 42%
4%
2Q11 1Q11
11.1%
17.1%
4Q10
10.3%
16.2%
3Q10
9.0%
15.2%
2Q10
7.7%
14.8%
1Q10
6.9%
13.0%
4Q09
6.4%
11.9%
3Q09
6.3%
9.7%
2Q09
5.6%
1Q09
4.6%
6.9% 8.1%
15.9%
13.2%
Non-performing High Risk (probability of default > 6.4%)
Proportion of High Risk and NPLs
• Loan loss provisions in 1Q12 of 195m EUR (228m EUR in 4Q11). The loss after tax in 1Q12 was 126m EUR
• Economic conditions have remained difficult in the early months of the year as budget austerity measures take their toll. Marginally positive economic growth for 2012 is anticipated as a whole
• Unemployment seems to be stabilising. The pipeline of new FDI into Ireland remains encouraging, with new jobs as a result of FDI increasing by 20% in 2011. EU/IMF programme targets continue to be reached
• Residential mortgage arrears continue to deteriorate, although the pace of deterioration has slowed. KBC Ireland is implementing its Mortgage Arrears Resolution Strategy to provide sustainable mortgage restructures to customers in difficulty
• The final shape of the personal insolvency legislation is still unknown and could represent further risk to lenders
• Commercial customers with Irish domestic exposure continue to face challenges and commercial collateral values continue to suffer as all Irish banks deleverage
• Expanded product range driving strong acquisition of retail customers. Successful deposit campaign with increased deposit levels (+0.1bn EUR q-o-q to roughly 1.0bn EUR) and some 2,500 new customers in 1Q12
• Local tier-1 ratio to 11.16% at the end of 1Q12 through a capital increase of 75m EUR (11.06% at the end of 4Q11)
15.2%
16.4%
3Q11 4Q11
17.7%
2%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
17.1% 18.3%
20.5%
1Q12
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Hungary (1)
The underlying net loss of K&H Group for 1Q12 was 36m EUR. Included in this loss are: • 46m EUR post-tax impact of the full year 2012 bank tax • 2m EUR post-tax 5-year accounting impact of the HUF ‘buffer account’ bearing below market interest rates • 1.6m EUR post-tax 2012 impact of interest rate reduction for customers opting for government FX debtor relief
programme
Loan loss provisions in 1Q12 amounted to 28m EUR. The credit cost ratio (without the one-off impact of FX mortgage easement) came to 1.63% in 1Q12 versus 1.72% in 1Q11
NPL rose to 11.3% in 1Q12 (10.5% in 4Q11) • NPL Retail: 17.0% in 1Q12 (13.3% in 4Q11):
• Rising NPL in retail was driven by - Repayment of FX mortgages until 28 February reducing performing portfolio (+1.6%) - Effect of temporary termination of own easement program due to upcoming new government scheme
(+0.8%) - Portfolio deterioration (+1.3%), partially explained by customers reducing their installment payments in
anticipation of the new government relief scheme • The expectation is that the government scheme will reduce new NPL formation in 2H12
• Corporate: stable portfolio quality (NPL: 7.0% in 1Q12, 8.1% in 4Q11)
Hungary (2)
Hungarian loan book – key figures as at 31 March 2012
Loan portfolio Outstanding NPL NPL coverage
SME/Corporate 2.8bn 7.0% 68%
Retail 2.7bn 15.9% 67%
o/w private 2.2bn 17.0% 67%
o/w companies 0.4bn 9.9% 74%
5.5bn 11.3% 68%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2Q11
11.2%
9.1%
1Q11
12.0%
9.0%
4Q10
11.9%
3Q10
12.8%
8.1%
2Q10
12.8%
7.1%
1Q10
13.5%
6.3%
4Q09
12.6%
5.3%
3Q09
11.6%
5.2%
High Risk (probability of default > 6.4%) Non-performing
Proportion of NPLs*
11.4%
8.4% 9.4%
3Q11
11.2%
10.5%
4Q11
10.6%
11.3%
1Q12
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Hungary (3) – FX conversion
Enacted government repayment scheme
≈ 30% of customers participated
30% of loan loss provisions deductible from 2011 bank tax FX conversion update: •636m EUR of FX loans repaid by the end of February 2012 •Total pre-tax effect for 2011 after recovering part of the banking tax, amounted to 119m EUR (booked in 2011)
Enacted Act on performing customers ≈ 55% *
Instalment to be split by all stakeholders through a buffer account for maximum 5y: • Up to 180 HUF/CHF: customer pays
principal and interest • Between 180-270 HUF/CHF:
• Principal paid by customer through buffer account
• Interest split between bank and state 50%-50%
• Above 270 HUF/CHF: state pays principal + interest
• Same for EUR with 250-340 limits Eligibility criteria: • Original loan value below 83k CHF / 67k
EUR • The debtor does not participate in any other
payment easement program • The debtor is not overdue more than 90 days
The FX prepayment will have a negative impact on NII at K&H of 30m EUR in 2012, gradually decreasing in the following years
Assuming a customer participation rate of 75%, the estimated pre-tax PV impact is 24m EUR over the 5-year period
Enacted Act on NPL customers ≈ 5% *
25% write-off of all eligible NPLs (90+ continuously from 30 Sep 2011): • Conversion into HUF following decision of
customer • 30% of loss from write-off deductible from
2012 bank tax
Eligibility criteria: • Deterioration of financial standing verified by
documents • Original loan amount below 83k CHF / 67k
EUR • Minimum amount due 260 EUR as of Sep 30
Additional support: • HUF interest subsidy based on further
eligibility criteria • Social cases sold to NAMC up to 25,000
properties at a value of 55/50/35% (per law passed on Dec 5)
Considering the existing average impairment level for the eligible customers, this measure has no substantial impact
* Eligible customers as a % of the total customers (FX mortgage loan portfolio as at 30 Sep 2011)
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Tangible & intangible fixed assets
Loan book
Trading assets
Investment portfolio
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Trading activities
1. Credit quality
Total Assets
2. Trading exposure
Less dependency on net (un)realised gains from FIFV within the ‘Market activities’ sub-unit (part of MEB), and more in particular on the dealing room results
Net (un)realised gains from FIFV within the ‘Market Activities’ sub-unit, 2005-2011
(on a pro forma basis)
Underlying net (un)realised gains from FIFV within ‘Market Activities’ (on a pro forma basis) as a % of group underlying total income
3. ‘Toxic’ assets
4. Sovereign bonds
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Other (incl. interbank loans)
9.8%
2006
6.7%
10.8%
2005 2007
8.3%
2011
7.4%
2008 2010
5.9%
2009
5.7%
Tangible & intangible fixed assets
Loan book
Trading assets
Investment portfolio
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Investment portfolio
Total Assets
* Figures exclude all expired, unwound or terminated CDOs ** Taking into account the guarantee agreed with the Belgian State and a provision rate for MBIA at 70% *** See appendices for more details
1. Credit quality
2. Trading exposure
3. ‘Toxic’ assets
4. Sovereign bonds
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Other (incl. interbank loans)
Outstanding CDO exposure* (bn EUR) at the end of 1Q12
Notional Outstanding markdowns
- Hedged portfolio - Unhedged portfolio
10.1 5.5
-0.8 -3.8
TOTAL 15.6 -4.5
Amounts in bn EUR Total Outstanding value adjustments Claimed and settled losses - Of which impact of settled credit events
-4.5 -2.2
-1.9
Total notional amount fell by 1.7bn EUR q-o-q in 1Q12 Outstanding value adjustments amounted to 4.5bn EUR at the
end of 1Q12 Claimed and settled losses amounted to 2.2bn EUR Within the scope of the sensitivity tests, the value adjustments
reflect a 12.6% cumulative loss in the underlying corporate risk (approx. 86% of the underlying collateral consists of corporate reference names)
Reminder: CDO exposure largely written down or covered by a State guarantee
10% 20% 50%
Spread tightening +0.1bn +0.2bn +0.6bn
Spread widening -0.1bn -0.2bn -0.4bn
P&L impact** of a shift in corporate and ABS credit spreads (reflecting credit risk)
Tangible & intangible fixed assets
Loan book
Trading assets
Investment portfolio
26 26
Investment portfolio (cont’d)
Total Assets
Government bond investment portfolio (carrying value, excluding trading book) at KBC Bank of 35bn EUR (at end of 2011)
Geographical composition:
• Belgium: 47%
• CEE (mainly locally held portfolios): 35%
• Italy: 4%
• Spain: 3%
• Greece, Portugal and Ireland: 1%
• Other (almost all European): 10%
1. Credit quality
2. Trading exposure
3. ‘Toxic’ assets
4. Sovereign bonds
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Other (incl. interbank loans)
Strategy and business profile of KBC Group
Financial performance of KBC Group
Asset quality of KBC Bank
Liquidity and solvency of KBC Bank
Wrap-up
Appendices
27 27
Contents
27
Shareholders’ equity
Funding & deposit base
28 28
Solvency and liquidity position
Total Liabilities & Equity
Capital adequacy
Liquidity position
With core tier-1 ratio of 10.1% at KBC Bank (excl. KBL epb) and 11.4% at KBC Group, KBC is well positioned to pursue organic growth
With loan-to-deposit ratio at 90%, need for refinancing in the market is limited compared to peers
Based on a preliminary analysis, funding & solvency seem to be manageable in light of the new ‘Basel’ proposals
28
Improved capital ratios at KBC Bank (excl. KBL)
29
16.6%
12.4%
FY10
15.4%
11.6%
9.6%
FY11
10.5%
FY09
14.4%
10.9%
9.0%
FY08
13.2%
9.6%
7.1%
FY07
12.2%
8.5%
7.2%
FY06
11.2%
8.5%
7.2%
1Q12
10.1%
12.1%
15.5%
CT1 T1 CAD
30
Strong capital position at KBC Group
Strong tier-1 ratio of 13.1% (15.5% pro forma) at KBC Group as at end 1Q12 comfortably meets the minimum required tier-1 ratio of 11% (under Basel 2)
Pro forma core tier-1 ratio – including the effect of divestments already signed – of 13.6% at KBC Group
First repayment, of 500m EUR, to the Federal Government in January 2012 at 15% premium. Intention is to make additional repayments in 2012 (with the aim being to repay at least 4.67bn EUR of the principal amount of the YES by the end of 2013)
13.6%
7.7%
15.5%
8.9%
7.2%
4.9%
1Q12*
13.1%
11.4%
6.1%
FY11
12.3%
10.6%
5.5%
FY10
12.6%
10.9%
5.6%
FY09
10.8%
9.2%
4.3%
FY08 1Q12 pro forma
T1 CT1 including State capital CT1 excluding State capital
* 1Q12 pro forma CT1 includes the impact of divestments already signed, but not yet closed (KBL epb, Warta and Kredyt Bank)
11,8%10,3% 9,9% 10,1% 9,5%
14,1% 13,7%11,8%
9,5%11,2%
9,6% 10,1% 10,1%8,6%
9,9% 10,0% 10,0%9,0% 9,4%
10,3%
1,8%
2,3% 2,5% 2,2%1,9%
1,9% 2,2%
4,5%1,9%
1,9%1,9%
3,3%1,0%
2,0% 1,4% 1,4%2,6%
1,2% 1,0% 0,9%1,7% 1,1%
12,7%
11,0%10,6%9,6%
10,7%
2,4%
2,1%
Citi PNC BoA JPM WellsFargo
UBS SEB CS KBC St. Ch. RBS Barclays DB Nordea INGBank
BNPP HSBC ISP CASA CB San. UCG SG Erste BBVA
Favourable peer group comparison
Source: Company filings as of Dec 11, BofAML Note: capital ratios under Basel 2.5 for EU banks and under Basel 1 for US banks (1) Excluding transition rules. (2) Including state capital and pro forma for divestments signed as of 28-Feb-12. (3) Proforma capital increase.
Avg: 10.6%
Avg: 12.4%
Tier 1 as of Dec 11
Core Tier 1 as of Dec 11
Avg: 12.4%
13.6% 12.6% 12.4% 12.3% 11.3% 16.0% 15.9% 12.9% 15.2% 13.7% 13.0% 14.6% 12.9% 12.2% 11.7% 11.6% 11.5% 11.5% 11.2% 11.1% 11.0% 10.9% 10.7% 10.4% 10.3%
US Banks EU Banks
(2)
Avg: 10.3%
(1) (1) (3)
FY11 pro forma (incl. KBL epb, Warta and KB)
31
32
A solid liquidity position (1)
• KBC Bank continues to have a strong retail/corporate deposit base in its core markets – resulting in a stable funding mix with a significant portion of the funding attracted from core customer segments & markets
14% 8% 8%9%7% 100%
1Q12
67%
3% 10%
8%
4%
FY11
69%
3% 9%
7%
3%
FY10
70%
7% 8%
7% 5% 3%
FY09
64%
7% 8%
8% 5%
FY08
66%
7% 7% 8%
5%
FY07
64%
8% 8% 10%
-4%
Funding from customers Certificates of deposit Total equity
Debt issues placed at institutional relations Net secured funding Net unsecured interbank funding
67% customer driven
33
A solid liquidity position (2)
• Funding needs 2012 covered and buffer established given:
• Our total mid/long-term wholesale funding (15bn EUR) only represents 8% of the total funding mix (which is relatively limited) – with only limited amounts maturing each year
• Long-term funding needs decrease as steps to reduce RWA continue
• We already issued 2.25bn EUR unsecured long-term debt YTD (1.25bn EUR 2y and 1.0bn EUR 5y)
• A regulation for the issuance of covered bonds is expected to be approved in Belgium
34
A solid liquidity position (3)
• LTD ratio of 90% at KBC Bank at the end of 1Q 2012. The decrease is the result of a strong deposit growth in retail/corporate and a recovery of the more volatile institutional deposits after the decrease in Q4 – (at that time due to a downgrade of our short-term rating by S&P and the risk aversion towards the European market in general)
LTD ratio at KBC Bank
FY11
94%
FY10
81%
FY09
88%
1Q12
90%
LTD ratio at Belgium BU*
FY11
58%
FY10
56%
FY09
56% 59%
1Q12
LTD ratio at CEE BU**
73%
FY09
74%
FY10
73%
FY11 1Q12
74%
* Excluding Centea (retroactively adjusted) ** Excluding Kredyt Bank and Absolut Bank (items earmarked for divestment in Group Centre)
The liquid asset buffer increased slightly amongst other things due to positive M2M evolutions on the portfolio The total amount of unencumbered assets declined moderately as more secured funding was attracted However, the liquidity position remains strong as: • Unencumbered assets are double the amount of the net recourse on short-term wholesale funding maturing in 1y • Funding coming from non-wholesale markets is stable funding from our core customer segments in our home markets
A solid liquidity position (4)
35
5,7
9,0
16,6 32,1
19,2
19,9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Gross ST funding Deposits at central bank
Net ST funding< 12 m
Liquid asset buffer
Short term unsecured funding KBC Bank (consolidated) as of end March 2012 (bn EUR)
CP/CD issues
Deposits at central bank Net ST funding< 12 m Unencumbered central bank eligible assets Central bank eligible assets encumbered due to net repo activity, incl. ECB tender Interbank deposits
35
36
Upcoming mid-term funding maturities
• KBC issued successfully 2 new benchmark senior unsecured deals for a total amount of 2.25bn EUR in 1Q 2012
• KBC Bank NV has 3 solid sources of EMTN Funding: • Public benchmark transactions • Structured Notes using the private placement format • Retail EMTN
• A regulation for the issuance of covered bonds is expected to be approved in Belgium
Breakdown funding maturity bucketsSenior vs. subordinated & callable vs. non-callable
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 >=2021
Maturity
Am
ount
mat
urin
g (in
€ m
io
eqv)
Senior funding non callable Senior funding callable
Subordinated funding non callable Subordinated funding callable
2012 refinancing needs covered, focus
on 2013
Note that this graph does not include the ECB-LTRO for a total amount of 8.7bn EUR (3y maturity)
37 37
Putting things into perspective...
• Term debt issuance in 2011: 4.3bn EUR (vs. 10bn - 43bn EUR for peer group)
• Term debt issuance 2011 / Total assets of KBC Bank 2011: 1.8% (vs. 1.2% - 6.3% for peer group)
• Term debt issuance 2011 / Total assets of KBC Group 2011: 1.5%
• Total LT debt outstanding / Total assets of KBC Bank 2011: 6.7% (vs. 5.5% - 25.6% for peer group)
• Total LT debt outstanding / Total assets of KBC Group 2011: 5.7%
37
Source: KBC Bank, Bloomberg, Company Reports – as of FY2011, Dealogic
Term Debt Issuance 2011 / Total Asset
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
DNB Bank Rabobank SHB ABN AMRO Intesa Lloyds BBVA Nordea BNP Paribas KBC Bank CASA Barclays
Strategy and business profile of KBC Group
Financial performance of KBC Group
Asset quality of KBC Bank
Liquidity and solvency of KBC Bank
Wrap-up
Appendices
38 38
Contents
38
39 39
Wrap up (at KBC Group level)
39
• Well-developed bancassurance strategy and strong cross-selling capabilities • Strong franchise in Belgium with high and stable return levels (ROAC of 37% in 1Q12) • Access to growth in ‘new Europe’ (most mature markets in the region)
• Strongly improved underlying 1Q12 results: 455m EUR, thanks to markedly lower impairments and strong dealing room income. Core profitability in home markets remains intact in difficult conditions. We are sticking to our guidance for loan loss provisions in Ireland of 500-600m EUR for the full year 2012
• Decisive progress on divestments, with capital gains to come in 2H12
• Further reduction of volatile elements: • CDO/ABS exposure further reduced by roughly 2.2bn EUR notional • PIIGS exposure further down by 42% since the end of 2011
• Strong capital position: pro forma core tier-1 ratio of 13.6% at KBC Group, which is a significant improvement compared to the end of last year. First 500m EUR repayment to the Federal Government in January 2012 at 15% premium. Working towards further repayment(s) in 2012
• Strong liquidity position: Unencumbered assets are double the amount of the net recourse on short-term wholesale funding maturing in 1 year
• Funding needs 2012 covered and additional buffer in place thanks to the issuance of 2.25bn EUR unsecured long-term debt (1.25bn EUR 2y and 1.0bn EUR 5y), strong growth in customer deposits (+4% q-o-q) and additional buffer established with participation in LTRO2
Appendices
40
Appendices
41
KBC 2012 benchmarks + overview of outstanding benchmarks
KBC Bank CDS levels
Refocused KBC taking shape
Sovereign risk at KBC Group
Additional info about our CDO portfolio
Macroeconomic views
42
KBC 2012 Benchmarks
KBC 2Y Fixed – XS0754262755
• Notional: 1.25bn EUR • Issue Date: 7 March 2012 – Maturity: 7 March 2014 • Coupon: 3.625%, A, Act/Act • Re-offer spread: Mid Swap + 255bp (issue price 99.941%) • Joint lead managers: KBC, DZ, JP Morgan, Natixis
43
KBC 2012 Benchmarks
44
KBC 2012 Benchmarks
KBC 5Y Fixed – XS0764303490
• Notional: 1bn EUR • Issue Date: 27 March 2012 – Maturity: 27 March 2017 • Coupon: 4.50%, A, Act/Act • Re-offer spread: Mid Swap + 285bp (issue price 99.77%) • Joint lead managers: KBC, UBS, GS, Commerzbank
45
KBC 2012 Benchmarks
Outstanding Benchmarks
46
Issuer Curr EUR Equivalent Amount issued Coupon Settlement Date Maturity Date ISIN YEARKBC Ifima N.V. EUR 1,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 3-mth Euribor +35bp 26 Oct 2007 26/10/2012 XS0327159074 2012KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 1,602,615,000 1,602,615,000 6-mth Euribor -60bp 31 Mar 2008 31/03/2014 XS0340282739 2014KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 250,000,000 250,000,000 3-mth Euribor +85bp 04 Mar 2008 04/03/2013 XS0350935671 2013KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 250,000,000 250,000,000 3-mth Euribor +85bp 06 Mar 2008 06/03/2013 XS0351341150 2013KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 743,968,000 743,968,000 16 May 2008 16/05/2014 XS0352674682 2014KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 250,000,000 250,000,000 4.75 26-Jan-09 26/01/2014 XS0406774538 2014KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 1,250,000,000 1,250,000,000 4.5 17-Sep-09 17/09/2014 XS0452462723 2014KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 750,000,000 750,000,000 3.875 31 Mar 2010 31/03/2015 XS0498962124 2015KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 350,000,000 350,000,000 3-mth Euribor +165bp 19-Jul-10 19/07/2013 XS0527072937 2013KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 1,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 4 01-Mar-11 01/03/2013 XS0597921724 2013KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 750,000,000 750,000,000 5 16-Mar-11 16/03/2016 XS0605440345 2016KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 250,000,000 250,000,000 3.875 14/04/2011 31/03/2015 XS0498962124 2015KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 500,000,000 500,000,000 4.375 25/05/2011 26/10/2015 XS0630375912 2015KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 1,250,000,000 1,250,000,000 3.625 07/03/2012 07/03/2014 XS0754262755 2014KBC Ifima N.V. EUR 1,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 4.5 27/03/2012 27/03/2017 XS0764303490 2017
Tranche Report
Maturity profile KBC Ifima benchmark issues
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ions
mill
ions
(in
EUR
equi
vale
nt)
Main characteristics of outstanding T1 issues
47
SUBORDINATED BOND ISSUES KBC BANK
KBC Bank
Funding Trust II KBC Bank
Funding Trust IIIKBC Bank
Funding Trust IV KBC Bank NV KBC Bank NV KBC Bank NV
Amount issued EUR 280,000,000 USD 600,000,000 EUR 300,000,000 GBP 525,000,000 EUR 1,250,000,000 EUR 700,000,000Tendered EUR 161,300,000 USD 431,400,000 EUR 179,200,000 GBP 480,500,000
Net Amount EUR 118,700,000 USD 168,600,000 EUR 120,800,000 GBP 44.500,000
ISIN-code XS0099124793 USU2445QAA68 / US48239AAA79 US48239FAA66 / USU2445TAA08 BE0119284710 BE0934378747 XS0368735154
Call date 30/06/2009 02/11/2009 10/11/2009 19/12/2019 27/06/2013
Coupon 6.875% 9.86% 8.220% 6.202% 8.000% 8.000%
Step-up coupon 3m euribor + 300bps 3m usd libor + 405bps 3m usd libor + 405bps 3m gbp libor + 193bps no step-up no step-up
First (next) call date 30/06/2012 02/08/2012 10/08/2012 19/12/2019 14/05/2013 27/06/2013
ACPM - - - Yes Yes YesDividend Stopper - - - Yes Yes Yes
Conversion into PSC - - - Yes Yes Yes
Trigger - -- Supervisory Event or general
"concursus creditorum"Supervisory Event or general
"concursus creditorum"Supervisory Event or general
"concursus creditorum"
Dividend payments
Tender offer organized in September 2009
Dividends are only payable with respect to any Dividend Period if, and to the extent that, the Dividends for the corresponding Dividend Period are declared (or deemed declared for the purposes, and subject to the conditions
of the Bank Guarantuee or Holding Guarantee) on the securities owned by the Trust (together with the aforementioned guarantees, the assets of the Trust). Dividends will be paid to the extent that the Trust has funds
available for the payment of such Dividends from its assets.
Appendices
48
KBC 2011 benchmarks + overview of outstanding benchmarks
KBC Bank CDS levels
Refocused KBC taking shape
Sovereign risk at KBC Group
Additional info about our CDO portfolio
Macroeconomic views
49
KBC Bank CDS levels since January 2009
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
09/04/2009
09/06/2009
09/08/2009
09/10/2009
09/12/2009
09/02/2010
09/04/2010
09/06/2010
09/08/2010
09/10/2010
09/12/2010
09/02/2011
09/04/2011
09/06/2011
09/08/2011
09/10/2011
09/12/2011
09/02/2012
09/04/2012
Cred
it sp
read
leve
ls (i
n bp
s)
KBC CDS EUR SR 2Y Corp KBC CDS EUR SR 3Y Corp KBC CDS EUR SR 5Y CorpKBC CDS EUR SR 7Y Corp KBC CDS EUR SR 10Y Corp
Appendices
50
KBC 2011 benchmarks + overview of outstanding benchmarks
KBC Bank CDS levels
Refocused KBC taking shape
Sovereign risk at KBC Group
Additional info about our CDO portfolio
Macroeconomic views
Overview of divestment programme
Finalised:
KBC FP Convertible Bonds
KBC FP Asian Equity Derivatives
KBC FP Insurance Derivatives
KBC FP Reverse Mortgages
KBC Peel Hunt
KBC AM in the UK
KBC AM in Ireland
KBC Securities BIC
KBC Business Capital
Secura
KBC Concord Taiwan
KBC Securities Romania
KBC Securities Serbia
Organic wind-down of international MEB loan book outside home markets
Centea
Fidea
Signed:
KBL European Private Bankers
Warta
Kredyt Bank
Zagiel
In preparation/work-in-progress for 2012/2013
Absolut Bank
KBC Banka
NLB
Antwerp Diamond Bank
KBC Germany
KBC Real Estate Development
51
52
Strategic plan: Execution progresses at a brisk pace
Execution status, mid-May 2012:
Stream 1: Agreement to sell Warta signed in January 2012 Stream 2: The agreement between Santander and KBC to merge BZ WBK with Kredyt Bank was a
major step towards a full divestment of Kredyt Bank Stream 3: PIIGS exposure further down by 42% since the end of 2011 Stream 4: CDO/ABS exposure further reduced by roughly 2.2bn EUR notional Stream 5: RWA at 110.8bn EUR (pro forma) including B2.5/CRD3 impact, reduction better than
initially planned. Nevertheless, core profitability remains intact in difficult years
53
Stream 1: Divestment of Warta
• 20 January: agreement with Talanx announced
• Transaction price: 770m EUR ≈ 2.5x tangible BV
• Total capital relief of almost 0.7bn EUR
• Closure expected in 2H12
=> KBC’s tier-1 ratio will rise by ±0.7% (at close)
FY11
Total assets 1.5bn EUR
RWA 1.3bn EUR
Market share 8%-9%
Book value... 0.46bn EUR
... of which goodwill 0.15bn EUR
Underlying net profit 41m EUR
54
Stream 2: Divestment of Kredyt Bank
FY11
Total assets 9.3bn EUR
RWA 6.8bn EUR
Market share 4%
Book value... 0.6bn EUR
... of which goodwill 0.1bn EUR
Underlying net profit 68m EUR
• 28 February: agreement with Santander announced to merge Bank Zachodni WBK and Kredyt Bank in Poland
• KBC’s intention is to divest its remaining 9.99% stake, with a view to maximising value (thanks to significant synergies)
• Another major milestone in execution of disposal plan imposed by the European Commission in challenging market circumstances
• Total capital relief of 0.7bn EUR at closing
• Closure expected in 2H12
=> KBC’s tier-1 ratio will rise by ±0.8% (at close)
55
Stream 3: PIIGS exposure down by 42% since the end of 2011
Breakdown of government bond portfolio, banking and insurance (carrying value in bn EUR)
End 2010 End 1Q11 End 2Q11 End 3Q11 End 2011 End 1Q12 End of April 2012
Portugal 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Ireland 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Italy 6.4 6.2 6.1 3.8 2.1 2.0 2.0
Greece 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Spain 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 0.3
TOTAL 10.0 9.7 9.6 6.7 4.8 4.4 2.8
Year-to-date, KBC reduced its PIIGS exposure (carrying amount) by roughly 42%:
• Greece: reduction of 0.2bn EUR • Italy: reduction of 0.1bn EUR • Spain: reduction of 1.6bn EUR • TOTAL reduction of 2.0bn EUR
KBC further reduced its exposure to Spanish sovereign bonds mainly during April against a cost of 34m EUR post-tax
56
Stream 4: CDO/ABS exposure reduced
• In 1Q12, two CDOs were de-risked, resulting in a reduction of the outstanding notional amount of CDOs by 1.7bn EUR. This had a negative impact on P&L of 64m EUR post-tax, but no material impact on the capital position
• During 1Q12, we sold 0.2bn EUR in notional amount of US ABS assets to the market, resulting in a 34m EUR post-tax P&L loss and a net saving of roughly 150m EUR of regulatory capital. Further on, the notional amount of the remaining ABS-portfolio decreased by 0.3bn EUR due to the natural run-off of the portfolio
• We will continue to look at reducing our ABS and CDO exposure, when and if this leads to additional capital relief and lower P&L volatility
0
2.500
5.000
7.500
10.000
12.500
15.000
17.500
20.000
22.500
25.000
27.500Notional(m EUR)
Maturity schedule of CDOs issued by KBC Financial Products
Equity/Cash reserves All Notes issued KBC SSS MBIA SSS Original maturity schedule total notional
Mar’12
Stream 5: RWA reduction better than initially planned
KBC Group risk weighted assets (in bn EUR)
-29%
end 1Q12, after divestment of
KBL epb, Warta and Kredyt Bank
110.8
end 2011, after divestment of KBL epb, Fidea
and Warta, including the B2.5 impact
119.1
end 2010
132.0
end 2009
143.4
end 2008
155.3
end 2007
147.0
end 2006
140.0
end 2005
128.7
end 2004
114.8
-44.5bn EUR
57
58
Core earnings power intact
Underlying gross operating income (before impairments)
Amounts in m EUR for KBC Group
FY11*
3,830
FY10
3,912
FY09
4,223
FY08
3,581
FY07
4,317
FY06
3,762
Core earnings power intact, with a significantly reduced risk profile (trading), despite drastic RWA reduction (including B2.5 impact) since the end of 2008: 36.2bn EUR per end 2011 and 44.5bn EUR per end 1Q12
* FY11 with neutralisation of impact of 5-5-5 bonds
59
Estimated RWA at the end of 2013
RWA impact (bn EUR)
6
89
2013e
110
Other
-3
Remaining divestments
-6
Poland
-8
Fidea
-2
KBL
-4
B3 + S2 + org. growth
+ shift to IRB Advanced
FY11
126
10
12
16
Counterp. RWA Operat. RWA Insurance Credit RWA
• Taking into account the sale of our Polish entities, the lower-than-initially-estimated impact on RWA of CRD3, B3 and Solvency2, the reduction in RWA due to the shift from IRB Foundation to IRB Advanced and lower-than-expected organic growth, we estimate that RWA will amount to110bn EUR at the end of 2013
Appendices
60
KBC 2011 benchmarks + overview of outstanding benchmarks
KBC Bank CDS levels
Refocused KBC taking shape
Sovereign risk at KBC Group
Additional info about our CDO portfolio
Macroeconomic views
Government bond portfolio
Notional investment of 53bn EUR in government bonds (excl trading book) at end 1Q12, primarily as a result of significant excess liquidity position and the reinvestment of insurance reserves into fixed income instruments
5%
10%45%
Portugal * Ireland *
Netherlands * Greece *
Austria * Germany **
Spain 4% Other
4% France
Italy
Slovakia** 2%
Hungary 4%
Poland 5%
Czech Rep.
14% Belgium
(*) 1%, (**) 2%
End 2010 (60bn EUR notional)
End 1Q12 (53bn EUR notional)
(*) 1%, (**) 2%
7%
5%
44%
Portugal Ireland *
Netherlands * Greece *
Austria ** Germany
3% Spain 4%
Other 6%
France
Italy
Slovakia** 2%
Hungary 4%
Poland 5%
Czech Rep. 15%
Belgium
End 2011 (51bn EUR notional)
6%
4%
44%
Czech Rep.
6%
16% Belgium
Greece Portugal
Spain
Ireland * Austria **
Netherlands *
Germany
4% Other
Italy
France
Slovakia **
Hungary
2%
Poland
5%
6%
3%
(*) 1%, (**) 2%
61
Appendices
62
KBC 2011 benchmarks + overview of outstanding benchmarks
KBC Bank CDS levels
Refocused KBC taking shape
Sovereign risk at KBC Group
Additional info about our CDO portfolio
Macroeconomic views
63
Breakdown of KBCs CDOs originated by KBC FP Breakdown of assets underlying to KBCs CDOs originated by KBC FP*
Direct Corporate Exposure, 53%
Tranched Corporate Exposure, 32%
Multi-Sector ABS Exposure, 14%
* % of total initial deal exposure; figures as of 10 April 2012
Corporate ratings distribution *
Corporate geographical distribution* Corporate industry distribution*
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Aaa
Aa1
Aa2
Aa3
A1 A2 A3 Baa1
Baa2
Baa3
Ba1
Ba2
Ba3
B1 B2 B3 Caa1
Caa2
Caa3
Ca C D/Credit Event
NR
Direct Corporate Portfolio
Tranched Corporate Portfolio
* Direct Corporate exposure as a % of the total Corporate Portfolio; Tranched Corporate exposure as a % of total Corporate Portfolio. Figures as of 10 April 2012, based on Moody’s Ratings
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Buildings & Real Estate
Banking
Insurance
Mining, Steel, Iron & Nonprecious Metals
Printing & Publishing
Utilities
Retail Stores
Automobile
Telecommunications
Finance
Oil & Gas
Electronics
Hotels, Motels, Inns and Gaming
Diversified Natural Resources, Precious Metals & Minerals
Cargo Transport
Personal Transportation
Diversified/Conglomerate Service
Leisure, Amusement, Entertainment
Home & Office Furnishings, Housewares, & Durable Consumer Products
Broadcasting & Entertainment
Chemicals, Plastics & Rubber
Diversified/Conglomerate Manufacturing
Other
Direct Corporate Portfolio
Tranched Corporate Portfolio
* Direct Corporate exposure as a % of the total Corporate Portfolio; Tranched Corporate exposure as a % of total Corporate Portfolio. Figures as of 10 April 2012
North America, 56%
Europe, 23%
Asia, 17%
Other, 4%
* Direct and Tranched Corporate exposure as a % of the total Corporate Portfolio; figures as of 10 April 2012
64
Maturity schedule for CDO portfolio
The total FP CDO exposure includes the ‘unhedged’ own investment portfolio as well as the ‘hedged’ portfolio that is insured by MBIA
0
2.500
5.000
7.500
10.000
12.500
15.000
17.500
20.000
22.500
25.000
27.500Notional(m EUR)
Maturity schedule of CDOs issued by KBC Financial Products
Equity/Cash reserves All Notes issued KBC SSS MBIA SSS Original maturity schedule total notional
Mar’12
65
Potential P&L impact for KBC
Potential capital impact for KBC
100% 100%
100% 10% (90% compensated by
equity guarantee)
10% (90% compensated by
cash guarantee)
10% (90% compensated by
cash guarantee)
12.2bn - 100%
1st tranche
10.5bn - 86%
2nd tranche
9.0bn - 74%
3rd tranche
1.7bn 1.5bn
9.0bn
State guarantee covering 12.2bn* euros’ worth of CDO-linked instruments • Scope
– CDO investments that were not yet written down to zero (2.1bn EUR) when the transaction was finalised
– CDO-linked exposure to MBIA, the US monoline insurer (10.1bn EUR)
• First and second tranche: 3.2bn EUR, impact on P&L borne in full by KBC, KBC has option to call on equity capital increase up to 1.3bn EUR (90% of 1.5bn EUR) from the Belgian State
• Third tranche: 9.0bn EUR, 10% of potential impact borne by KBC
• Instrument by instrument approach
Summary of government transactions (1)
• Excluding all cover for expired, unwound or terminated CDOs positions
66
7bn EUR worth of core capital securities subscribed by the Belgian Federal and Flemish Regional Governments
Summary of government transactions (2)
Belgian State Flemish Region Amount 3.5bn 3.5bn
Instrument Perpetual fully paid up new class of non-transferable securities qualifying as core capital
Ranking Pari passu with ordinary stock upon liquidation
Issuer KBC Group Proceeds used to subscribe ordinary share capital at KBC Bank (5.5bn) and KBC Insurance (1.5bn)
Issue Price 29.5 EUR
Interest coupon Conditional on payment of dividend to shareholders The higher of (i) 8.5% or (ii) 120% of the dividend for 2009 and 125% for 2010 onwards
Not tax deductible
Buyback option KBC Option for KBC to buy back the securities at 150% of the issue price (44.25)
Conversion option KBC
From December 2011 onwards, option for KBC to convert securities into shares (1 for 1). In that case, the State can ask for
cash at 115% (33.93) increasing every year by 5% to the maximum of 150%
No conversion option
Appendices
67
KBC 2011 benchmarks + overview of outstanding benchmarks
KBC Bank CDS levels
Refocused KBC taking shape
Sovereign risk at KBC Group
Additional info about our CDO portfolio
Macroeconomic views
(*) Euro-periphery = Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece & Spain
Source: KBC, Group Chief Economist Department
Real GDP-growth (QoQ annualised, in % )
Real GDP (Q4 2007 = 100)
Belgian economy falling into
a ‘technical recession’ in H2 2011...
68
...but confidence indicators up again
69
Producer confidence (standard deviation from LT-average)
Source: KBC, Group Chief Economist Department
(*) Euro-periphery = Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece & Spain
Consumer confidence (standard deviation from LT-average)
Unemployment rate (in % of labour force)
Belgian labour market keeping up quite well
Export driven growth expected in 2012
70
Evolution of consensus forecasts real GDP-growth 2012 (in %)
Economic outlook
Real GDP-growth (in %)
Real GDP growth (in %)
2011 2012 2013
US 1.7 2.0 2.1
EMU 1.6 -0.2 1.2
Belgium 1.9 0.2 1.4
Czech Rep. 1.7 0.0 2.0
Slovakia 3.3 1.5 2.2
Hungary 1.7 -0.3 1.0
Poland 4.3 3.5 3.4
Source: Consensus Economics Inc.
71 Source: KBC, Group Chief Economist Department
Intra-EMU interest differentials (yield 10 y. gov. bonds vs. Germany in bps.)
Public deficit reduction in line with Stability Programme Target
72 Source: KBC, Group Chief Economist Department
Belgium - Government budget balance (% of GDP)