Katonah-Lewisboro School Closure: Response to 10/21/13 Public Hearing
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Transcript of Katonah-Lewisboro School Closure: Response to 10/21/13 Public Hearing
![Page 1: Katonah-Lewisboro School Closure: Response to 10/21/13 Public Hearing](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032502/55b79333bb61ebf9268b4780/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
KLSD School Closure
A response to Dr. Kreutzer’s 10/21/2013
presentation
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The KLSD school board may voteto close Lewisboro Elementary in 2014
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On 10/21/2013, Dr. Paul Kreutzer, superintendent, presented the case for closure as a public hearing.
Let’s look at his slides.
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This slide tells the story of declining enrollment in elementary schools
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Let’s take a closer look …
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Let’s drop projected and look at actuals.
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This represents a 20 year period.
It looks a little stuffed together.
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Better, but still not quite right. Let’s add in some breathing room
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Interesting, what’s that big point in 1997?
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In 1997, Increase Miller was overflowing with students, so in 1998, redistricting was done.
Want to see what this looks like after that?
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1999-2013 Elementary Enrollment
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Any idea about the changes over time?
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More houses sold, means more elementary enrollment.
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Elementary enrollment
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Housing sales
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This is both on the same slide
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It kind of seems like when housing sales decrease, so does enrollment.
What about average enrollment?
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Average enrollment and housing
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Housing and enrollment definitely seem to move the same way.
Is there a correlation?
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The Pearson correlation between housing and enrollment is .85.
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Huh?
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You can use a statistical function in Excel called correl or pearson to determine the correlation between 2 sets of numbers.
For this the result is .85
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Is that good, does that mean there is a correlation?
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There is a very strong positive relationship between housing sales and elementary enrollment.
If r = +.70 or higher Very strong positive relationship
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We know this area. We see new families move in and old families move out.
These numbers tell us to believe what we see.
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The cost of this mistake is: • crowded classrooms • disruption• multi-million dollar cost to
reopen a school in 5 years• lower property values• higher taxes
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Taxes will not go down
Not in 2014 … and not in the future
Closing a school is not a plan for lower taxes.
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There is no rush.
Let’s get a demographic report that considers housing
We’ve been graduating large classes during a housing slump.
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In 2 years, we’ll see the effect of :
• Full day kindergarten• A housing sale uptick
And we’ll understand how correct those demographic projections are.
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Slow down
Let’s get this right.