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A FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF RETURNS FROM COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

PROPERTIES IN THE UNITED STATES

Done for

Project report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement of Pondicherry University for the

award of the degree of

MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

Submitted By

KARTHIGA. D

(Reg No.1095526)

Under the guidance of

INTERNAL GUIDE: EXTERNAL GUIDE:

Dr. B. CHARUMATHI, Mr. MOHAMED ALI. A. S

Associate Professor Senior Analyst

Department of Management Studies Zenta Knowledge Services Pvt Ltd

School of Management Chennai.

Pondicherry University

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTPONDICHERRY UNIVERSITY

PUDUCHERRY- 605 014

MARCH- APRIL 2011

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT

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PONDICHERRY UNIVERSITY

PUDUCHERRY-605014

CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that this project entitled A FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF RETURNS FROM

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE PROPERTIES IN THE UNITED STATES. done for

ZENTA KNOWLEDGE SERVICES PVT LTD, CHENNAI, is submitted by KARTHIGA.D, II

year MBA (Reg NO. 1095526) to the Department of Management Studies, School of

Management, Pondicherry University in partial fulfillment of the degree requirement for the

award of degree Master of Business Administration and is certified to be an original and

bonafide work.

DR.R.P.RAYA DR.B.CHARUMATHI

Professor & Head of the Department

Place: Puducherry

Date:

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DECLARATION

I, KARTHIGA. D, Student of Department of Management Studies, Pondicherry

University, hereby declare that this project report titled A FINANCIAL

ANALYSIS OF RETURNS FROM COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

PROPERTIES IN THE UNITED STATES is an original work done by me and

submitted to the Department of Management Studies, for the award of Master

Degree in Business Administration. I further declare that any part this project itself

has not been submitted elsewhere for award of any degree.

PLACE:

DATE: Signature of the candidate

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I am indebted to the powerful Almighty God for the blessings he showered on me and for

being with me throughout the study.

I place on record my sincere gratitude and appreciation to my project guide Dr.B.CHARUMATHI,

Reader, Faculty Advisor Corporate Relations and Placements, Department of Management Studies,

for her kind co-operation and guidance which enabled me to complete this project.

I express my sincere thanks to Dr. R. P. RAYA, HOD, Department of Management Studies, School of

Management, Pondicherry University, who provided me an opportunity to do this project.

I am deeply obliged to Mr. MOHAMMED ALI, Senior Analyst,Zenta Knowledge Services Pvt Ltd,

Chennai, for his exemplary guidance and support for this project. I would also like to extend my

thanks to Ms. PRAVINA RAVINDRA, Senior Manager, Zenta Knowledge Services Pvt Ltd, Chennai,

for her support.

I take this opportunity to dedicate this project to my parents who were a constant source of motivation

and I express my deep gratitude for their never ending support and encouragement during this project.

Finally I thank each and everyone who helped me to complete this project.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Real Estate in India is investment, but Real Estate in US is business. It is like any stocks, bonds or any

other security. The market for real estate in US is booming over a period of time. The investment

done in US real estate is basically long term and the return is also high. Real estate finance and

Securitization has emerged the driving forces of Real Estate Industry.

The study emphasizes on valuation of US Real Estate, as the industry is highly organized and

structured, large holdings and that there is a distinct difference between residential and commercial

markets. The trend is also increasing in Indian market. But the importance given in the Indian market

is not as high as compared to the US market. The level of transparency is high in the US market.

This study is done to analyze the returns and estimate the value of a commercial property from

borrowers and lenders perspective. This valuation is triggered by various factors and the study

considers their influence on valuation.

The major factors influencing the valuation are the property characteristics, the markets andsubmarkets, the base rental income, the escalations, the retails sales, Capitalization rate and the Market

leasing assumptions. These factors are considered as most important with regard to the Real Estate

Valuation.

The study is therefore useful for the lenders to determine the value of a property and calculate the LTV

(Loan to Value) and the borrowers to value their property to approach the Real Estate Financiers.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER DESCRIPTION PAGE NO.

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1Introduction to the topic

1.2 Statement of problem

1.3 Objective of the study

1.4 Period of the study

1.5 Research methodology

1.6 Limitations of the study

1.7 Chapterization

2 PROFILES

2.1 Profile of US Real Estate Industry

2.2 Profile of Zenta

3 INVESTMENT IN REAL ESTATE &FUNCTIONING OF RE INDUSTRY

4 ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION

5

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS,

RECOMMENDATIONS &CONCLUSIONS

5.1 General findings

5.2 Special findings

5.3 Recommendations

5.4 Conclusion

6 BIBLIOGRAPHY

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LIST OF TABLES

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INTRODUCTION

1.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE TOPIC:

Real estate is a legal term that encompasses land along with improvements to the land, such asbuildings, fences, wells and other site improvements that are fixed in location -- immovable. Real

estate law is the body of regulations and legal codes which pertain to such matters under a particular

jurisdiction and include things such as commercial and residential real property transactions. Real

estate is often considered synonymous with real property, in contrast with personal property.

The real estate industry in the United States mainly deals with three types of properties namely

commercial real estate, residential real estate, and industrial real estate.

This project titled, A financial Analysis of Returns from Commercial Properties in the United

States aims to study the factors influencing the US real estate value and the relationship between

those factors and analyzes the various valuation approach that gives the maximum yield through which

the income generation capability of a property can be determined. There are several factors which

determine the value of a property viz., rent, reimbursement, capital expenditure, probability, inflation,

occupancy, location, cost of capital etc.

1.2 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

There has been a slowdown in the US real estate market over the last couple of years. The

process of slowdown came into prominence between the late summer of the year 2005 and summer

2006. The real estate dealers suffered from huge financial loss due to decrease in sales volume and

declining real estate prices. Any collapse of the U.S. Housing Bubble has a direct impact not only on

home valuations, but the nation's mortgage markets, home builders, real estate, home supply retail

outlets,Wall Streethedge funds held by large institutional investors, and foreign banks, increasing the

risk of a nationwide recession. The housing bubble has been the result of significant increase in

valuations of real estates. In this current scenario, this project aims to determine returns from

commercial properties and estimate the value of properties in the US. The purpose of this study is to

facilitate the investment decision of a client through a risk-return analysis of the income streams of

different Retail properties in the US Real Estate.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buildinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jurisdictionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_propertyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_propertyhttp://www.economywatch.com/sector-watch/us-real-estate.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estatehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estatehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Streethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Streethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_fundshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buildinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jurisdictionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_propertyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_propertyhttp://www.economywatch.com/sector-watch/us-real-estate.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estatehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Streethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_fundshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_bank


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1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To analyze the returns from various commercial real estate properties to facilitate the lending

decision.

To arrive at estimates of value of the properties based on the DCF approach.

To analyze the risk associated with the loan from the lenders perspective.

To analyze the credit worthiness of tenants.

1.4 SCOPE

The Scope of the Study is confined to US Retail Properties.

1.5 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

The major limitations of this research are

Only secondary data of last 5 years data for US is used for analysis.

Projections are made only for a period of 5 years.

This study is confined only to US Real Estate Industry. It gives suggestion only for

investor of the real property in the major cities and markets and not for the buyers

whose ultimate aim is to buy for living purpose and also not for brokers of real estate.

Details such as the clients name, the property name and address are not revealed, as it

would amount to breach of the confidentiality agreement between the company and its

client.

Only commercial properties have been focused upon.

1.6 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

This is a descriptive research which aims at evaluating the returns from a set of properties.

TOOLS USED

- Loan To Value

- Debt Service Coverage Ratio

- Number of Credit Tenants

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- Rollover Risk

1.7 Chapterization:

The introductory chapter deals with a crisp introduction of US Real Estate Industry, statement

of problem, objectives of study, research methodology and limitations.

Chapter 2 portrays the profiles of the US Real Estate Industry and Zenta Knowledge Services

Pvt. Ltd.,

Investments in Real Estate & functioning of the industry are reviewed in chapter 3

The data collected were compiled and analyzed in chapter 4.

Suggestions based on findings emanated from the study were presented in the concluding

chapter 5.

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2.2 PROFILE OF ZENTA KNOWLEDGE SERVICES PVT. LTD.,

About Zenta

Overview

Founded in 2001, Zenta is a world-class knowledge process

outsourcing (KPO) and business process outsourcing (BPO)

and Company, offering a full range of back-office, voice and

on-site support solutions such as Credit Card Servicing,

Consumer Lending Servicing, Accounts Receivable

Management, Mortgage Servicing and Real Estate Capital

Market Analytics. The Company serves the following

verticals: Consumer Credit, Insurance and Financial Services,

and Commercial and Residential Real Estate.

With 4,500+ employees worldwide, Zenta has operations in six

locations across three continents. Zenta is a preferred

employer in India.

For further information visit www.zenta.comYear Founded 2001

Executive Chairman Henry Hortenstien

Country Head Jaswinder Ghumman

Number of Employees 4500+

Global Headquarters New York City

Number of Facilities India: 4 operating centers

2 in Mumbai, and

2 in Chennai

USA Service delivery centers:

Philadelphia, PA

Charlotte, NC

Dallas, TX and

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Los Angeles, CA

Rank 6th in the 2004 NASSCOM Indian BPO survey

Notable Customers Fortune 1000 clients

Financial Services: 10 in the Fortune 500

7 in the Fortune 100

3 of the top 5 US banks

5 of the top 10 US banks

4 of the top 6 US credit card issuers

Healthcare

Top three US healthcare system

Vertical Practices Real Estate

Financial Services

Healthcare

Services Credit Card Servicing

Commercial Realty

Residential Realty

Account Receivables Management, and

Healthcare Revenue Cycle Management

Quality Certification ISO 9001:2000 certified

CMM Level 3 assessed

SAS70 (2006) assessed

Vision & Mission

The May 2007 realignment of the Companys services under the Zenta brand reflects the new

corporate vision of building a world-class Knowledge and Business Process Outsourcing Company

focused on the real estate and financial services industries. As a fully integrated global enterprise,

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Zenta now offers real estate and financial services customers a broad array of services from its centers

of excellence around the globe.

INDUSTRY AND SERVICES

Commercial Real Estate Services

Zenta's focused approach and industry expertise is unique among business process outsourcing

firms. Our senior management team averages over 20 years of real estate and financial services

experience with major balance sheet lenders, institutional investment firms, securitization programs

and loan servicers. Since its founding, our company has conducted analysis on more than 45,000

properties in over $1 trillion of commercial real estate transactions, provides servicing support on over

16,000 commercial loans each month and provides comprehensive research and information

management services for real estate lenders and investors.

Commercial Real Estate Services include

Buy & Sell Due Diligence

Lendor/Investor Services

Commercial Mortgage Underwriting

Finance and Accounting

Lease Administration

Residential Mortgage Services

Zenta's Residential Services Group provides processing, servicing and operational support for

a variety of residential real estate services. Zentas team of residential mortgage professionals has the

operational experience to implement a program specific to your needs and processes. Examples of our

residential real estate capabilities include:

Residential Master Servicing

Broker Services

Loan Origination and Underwriting

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Loan Administration

Default Services

Repeatable Results

Representative ClientsTechnology Services

IT Services

Zenta provides a comprehensive range of IT services that are backed by years of experience in

complex, integrated BPO management and a thorough understanding of the industry verticals in which

we operate. Zenta's IT professionals are also extensively trained in client-specific implementation

methodologies creating a dedicated IT team, which you can allocate where needed.

With Zenta's ISO 9001 registration and a CMM Level 3 rating, you can be assured of

consistent, high quality solutions. In addition, Zenta's IT division is housed in a facility that features

high service availability and redundancy to ensure secure, dependable operations. Leading edge

technology platforms deliver fast, effective transaction processing.

In addition, Zenta's IT Services increase overall productivity through better quality SLAs and the use

of 24-hour production.

Zenta offers three-tiered IT solutions viz., Preferred Partner Program & Application Integration

and Solution Architecture

Informative Services

Zenta develops real estate information management & technology solutions to assist in client

assignments and portfolio monitoring. Applying customized research services & tailored web-based

applications, we deliver proprietary portfolio & third party data in a centralized format.

Our information service capabilities deliver relevant and timely information with unprecedentedspeed, scale & savings to our clients.

Zenta information services team provides:

Web-Based Information Management Applications

Data Sourcing & Extraction Services

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Customized Research Services

Health Care Services

Customer Lending Services

Group Focus - Consumer lending lifecycle services.

Representative Clients - Commercial/Investment Banks, Credit Grantors, Specialty Finance

Companies.

Products/Services

Lead Generation

Contact Strategy

Outbound for Home Warranty, Checking Accounts, Home Equity Loans, Credit Insurance,

etc.

Customer Service and Relationship Management

Collections

Custom Analytics

Notice of Repossession / Foreclosure

Adaptive Control

Post-charge-off services

Revenue Care Services

In combination, Zenta and its partners provide the most highly trained, certified and qualified

professionals in the industry today, providing a comprehensive suite of revenue cycle services, along

with HIS and bolt-on technology expertise, including:

Third party follow-up, all payers

Self-pay follow-up including day-one

Early-out receivables outsourcing

Computer conversion projects with A/R protection

Full business office, medical records & patient access outsourcing

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Medical records transcription and coding

Embedded process reengineering with each engagement

Among the key Zenta advantages are:

Extensive Industry Expertise

Sophisticated Networking Access

In-depth Understanding of HIPAA and Regulatory

On-site Presence

THE US REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY

Real estate plays a vital role in the US economy. Following are some of the facts and figures that

show the importance of the real estate sector to the overall US economy, according to a report as of

February 2005 prepared by Economic Intelligence Company:

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In 2002, the real estate industry employed 1.56 million people in its various segments.

Over the past two decades employment in real estate has grown more rapidly than the general

economy. Since1982, employment in the real estate industry has increased more than 60%, far

more than the 46% increase in total employment.

In 2001, the real estate industry generated more than $66 billion in compensation for its

employees. That makes it one of the largest income producing industries in the country.

The total value of commercial real estate in the US as estimated by the Department of

Commerce is $3.54 trillion dollars.

Since 1992, the value of commercial real estate has increased by 67.5%, while GDP has

increased by only 59.6%

The value of all real estate in the US is larger than the total GDP of every country in the world

except Japan. In fact, the total value of commercial real estate in the US is roughly equal to the

annual output of Germany, France, Sweden and Switzerland combined.

In 2001, the real estate industry generated $326.6 billion in output, accounting for 3.24% of the

total output of goods and services in the US economy.

The commercial real estate industry contributes more to the US economy than many other

large industries. In 2005, real estates contribution to GDP was almost three times as large as

the motor vehicle industry, twice as large as the chemicals industry and larger than the

communication or transportation sectors.

Real Estate Property Types:

The two major types of real estate property are:

Residential Properties

Commercial Properties

Residential Properties:

idential properties include single family houses and multifamily properties such as apartments.

Condominiums and co-ops are also included as residential property. In general, residential properties

are properties that provide residences for individuals or families.

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Single family houses are usually individual, detached units. Multifamily housing is differentiated by

location (urban or suburban) and size of structure (high rise, low rise, or garden apartments. High rise

apartments are usually found near or close to the central business district of cities because land costs

are greater than suburban areas.

Commercial Properties:

Commercial properties are typically broken down into five major subcategories:

office,

retail,

industrial,

hotel/ motel,

recreational and

institutional.

Office buildings range from major multi-tenant buildings found in the central business district of most

large cities to single tenant buildings, often built with the needs of a specific tenant or tenants in mind.

Retail properties vary from large regional shopping containing over million square feet of space to

small stores with single tenants.

Industrial real estate includes property used for light or heavy manufacturing as well as associated

warehouse space. This category includes special purpose buildings designed specifically for

industrial use that would be difficult to convert to another use, buildings used by wholesale

distributors, and combinations of warehouse/ showroom and office facilities. Older buildings that were

initially used as office space often become warehouse or light industrial space.

Hotels and motels vary considerably in size and facilities available. Motels and smaller hotels are

used primarily as a place of business travelers and families to spend a night. These properties may

have limited amenities, such as swimming pools, dining facilities, or meeting space. The property will

often be located very close to a minor highway. Hotels designed for tourists who plan to stay longer

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will usually provide dining, a swimming pool, and other amenities. They are also typically located

near other attractions that tourists visit. Hotels at destination resorts provide the greatest amount of

amenities. Hotels are of various types such as discount or budget, extended stay, mid-price, full

service, limited service, suites, luxury.

Recreational real estate includes uses such as country clubs, marinas, sports complexes, and so on.

These are very special uses, usually associated with retail space that compliments the recreational

activity. Dining facilities and hotel facilities may also be present.

Institutional real estate is a general category of property that is used by a special institution such as a

government agency, a hospital or a university. The physical structure could be similar to other

properties; government office space for example, would be similar to other offices, and could in fact

be in the same building. However, space used by institutions such as universities and hospitals is

usually designed for a specific purpose and are not easily adaptable for other uses.

INCOME STREAMS FROM COMMERCIAL PROPERTY TYPES

COMMERCIAL OFFICE

Revenues:

The primary source of revenue for a commercial office building is rent. However all things being

equal desirability or the demand for a particular office building governs the rents it can command

within a class. Desirability is primarily a function of location. Other sources of revenue for an office

building include reimbursement of operating costs. These are subject to annual adjustments. Office

building owners receive other forms of income such as building services income and even percentage

rents from other retail tenants.

Expenses:

Expenses are incurred to operate and maintain a building occupied by tenants. Major office building

costs include

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Cleaning and custodial supplies

Repairs and maintenance costs

General and administrative expenses

Management fees and leasing commissions

Utilities

Property taxes

Insurance

Such costs are referred to as Operating expenses

RETAIL:

Revenues:

The rental income of a shopping center comes from base rent and percentage rent. One of the primary

sources of other income for a retail center is income related to the pass through of Common Area

Maintenance (CAM). CAMs are those that relate to the center as a whole and therefore relate to each

retail tenant.

Expenses:

Operating costs of a shopping center are much smaller, in terms of magnitude, than those incurred by a

commercial office building. This occurs because the tenants in a retail center pay many of the

operating costs, including utilities for which they are usually separately metered. Management fees

are generally low for a retail property since less work is involved from an administrative and

management standpoint.

MULTIFAMILY:

Revenues:

The income from apartments is generally rent. Depending on the facilities, there may be some

ancillary income from laundry, parking, vending, interest and the rental of special facilities-

recreational facilities or club houses. Apartments do not charge the common area maintenance pass

throughs that one finds in retail. There is no need for such pass throughs, since the leases are short

term and are subject to constant adjustment as leases roll over.

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Apartments differ from most forms of real estate ownership in the requirement for security deposits.

Expenses:

Expenses run into same broad categories found in any commercial property including repairs and

maintenance, taxes and utilities, insurance, management fees and administrative charges. Certain

repair and maintenance charges relate to items that are funded from a reserve and are therefore not

considered as ordinary operating expenses.

Management fees run from 2.5% to 5% depending on market conditions and the owners of the

property

INDUSTRIAL:

Revenues:

The basic revenue of an industrial project is rent. Again, product type, construction, area

demographics, amenities, location and market perception drive industrial rental revenues. Since many

industrial buildings or parks serve as distribution or warehouse facilities, building or park accessibility

to various forms of transportation may also impact the rent charged. There may be some pass through

of expenses.

Expenses:

The expenses of an industrial warehouse project fall into some major categories found in the other

commercial property types- insurance, taxes and operating costs. Operating costs of such facilities are

fairly low and the tenants often bear a great deal of the operating costs since the operations contained

within the industrial space belong to the tenant and not the landlord. The landlord incurs taxes, subject

to pass through. The landlord also incurs casualty insurance costs for the building and general liability

insurance.

HOTELS:

Income:

Hotels earn revenues from the range of services that they offer. Depending on the hotels services,

revenues could include catering, meetings conventions, office services, gambling or golf revenues.

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Expenses:

The expenses other than those in the cost of sales category are generally the same found with any real

estate project. Since many hotels are franchises, a franchise fee may also be paid to the franchisor.

Major Participants In The Real Estate Industry

Developers:

Development is an idea that comes to fruition when consumers tenants or owner occupants acquire

and use the space put in place by the development team. Land, labor, capital management and

entrepreneurship are needed to transform an idea into reality. Developers balance the needs of diverse

providers and consumers of the real estate product. The developers have to demonstrate the projects

feasibility to the capital markets and pay interest or assign Equity positions in return for funding.

Appraisers:

Appraisers can be a part of every stage of the property development process. Appraisers are primarily

responsible for valuation of the project. They estimate the market value of the property and typically

prepare a formal document called appraisal. Appraisals may be necessary when a developer transfers

ownership, seeks financing and credit, resolves tax matters, and establishes just compensation in

condemnation in condemnation proceedings. Appraisers can also evaluate a project as input to market

studies and feasibility studies.

The total number of appraisers registered with the National Appraisal Institute, USA is approximately

100,000 as of September 2002. Some of the familiar names in the US Real Estate markets include CB

Richard Ellis, Cushman and Wakefield and Grubb and Ellis.

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Property managers:

Property mangers focus on the day to day operation of the asset. Property managers carry

responsibility for all respects of the physical space in accordance with the asset managers plan. The

responsibilities of a property manager include:

Marketing and leasing

Maintenance and repair

Tenant relations including rent collection

Insurance

Accounting

Human resource Management

Providing timely information to the asset manager about events affecting the property.

Some of the major property managers include Trammel Crow Company and Grubb and Ellis

Company.

Brokers/ Leasing Agents:

Real Estate brokers and leasing agents are hired to act in the name of the developer in leasing and

selling space to prospective tenants or buyers. Their function, particularly in leasing large industrial

and commercial spaces is to carry out one of the most complex financial negotiations in the

development process. Leasing agents must balance all the various users individual needs against the

developers financial model.

Lenders:

Construction Lenders are usually commercial banks which are responsible for financing during

project construction and for seeing that the developer completes the project within the budget andaccording to the specifications. Construction lenders faced the risk that construction costs will exceed

the construction loan that they have agreed to provide, requiring the developer to cover the difference.

Permanent lenders seek to originate safe loans generating the maximum possible return. The market

value of the completed project is very critical in that it serves as the primary collateral for the loan.

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REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) are an efficient way for many investors to invest in

commercial and residential real estate businesses. REITs own and in many cases operate income

producing real estate such as apartments, shopping centers, offices, hotels and warehouses. REITs

were created in 1960 to make investments in large scale income producing real estate accessible to

small investors. A company to qualify as a REIT must comply with certain provisions within the

Internal Revenue Code. There are about 300 REITs operating in the United States. In addition there

are several REITs that are not traded on a stock exchange. REITs can be classified as Equity REITs,

Mortgage REITs and Hybrid REITs. REITs are managed like other publicly managed companies.

At the end of 2002, the market capitalization of all REITs in the US reached a record high of $161.9

billion. At the end of 2002 there were 176 REITs operating in the US

Portfolio Managers:

Portfolio Managers view assets in a larger context than only one asset. For Real Estate investments,

managers are concerned about the return and risk of single property investment opportunities and how

they affect the performance of both the entire mixed-asset portfolio and the component real asset

portfolio.

Boundaries Of The Market:

The US Real Estate market extends across the fifty states which are grouped into six Census regions.

Direct Capitalization Model:

This technique is a very simple approach to the valuation of income-producing property. It is based on

the idea that any given point in time the current NOI produced by a property is related to its current

market value. Symbolically,

NOI1

R = -------

V

Where NOI1 is net operating income in the first year of the holding, as developed from the operating

statement, V is the property value and R is the capitalization rate.

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Calculation of the direct cap rate:

Example:

Comparable Sale Sale Price NOI

1. $1,400,000 $145,000

2. $1,350,000 $150,000

The capitalization rate on the first sale is $145,000 / $1,400,000 = 0.104 and on the second sale is

$150,000 / $1,350,000 = .111. The weighted average of the two cap rates is about 0.1075. Assuming

that the above two properties are similar to one another and to the subject property, this average can be

used as the direct cap rate to find out the value of the subject property.

Discounted Cash flow model: n

The present value method involves projecting the NOI for the property over a typical investment

holding period. When projecting over a holding period, the resale value of the property at the end of

the holding period must also be estimated. The discount rate must reflect a competitive investment

yield for the type of property being valued. That is, it should be a rate that the typical investor would

normally require as a minimum return over the life of the investment to be willing to purchase the

property. One guide for the discount rate would be the interest rate on a mortgage for the same

property plus a risk premium for ownership (equity).

The present value of an income stream that is increasing at a compound growth rate g as a perpetuity

is found as follows:

V = NOI1 / (r-g)

where,

V = Present value of the income stream

NOI1 = the first year income (NOI)

g = annual growth in income

r = discount rate for present value

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Holding period: Investors typically hold assets for a period that is lesser than the entire economic life

of the asset. The property obviously must be sold at the end of the holding period subject to any leases

that extend beyond the holding period. In such a situation, the value at which the property would be

sold at the end of the holding period should be determined.

Reversionary value:

The reversionary value of the property is calculated by applying the terminal cap rate over the income

projected for the year following the holding period.

Example:

V10 = NOI11 / Terminal Cap Rate

Where,

Holding period = 10 years

V10 = Value at the end of the tenth year

NOI11 = NOI of the eleventh year

Calculation of the property value:

The reversionary value along with the income streams expected during the holding period are

discounted to find the present value of all the cash flows expected during the holding period.

In theory, the estimated value of the property under all the three approaches should be equal. But, in

practice, there is always a discrepancy between the values estimated under different approaches. So it

is left to the judgment of the appraiser to conclude the final value of the property by assigning

appropriate weights to the values calculated under the different approaches. For instance, according to

the FHA guidelines, the sales comparison approach has the most weight when determining the market

value of a home that is to be insured by an FHA loan.

Another viewpoint is that when the estimates of value under the direct cap approach and DCF

approach diverge, it is better to rely on the results of the DCF analysis for two reasons. First, DCF

models force the analyst to make explicit assumptions about the future income streams and the sales

price assumptions that finally generates the present value of the property. Second, the use of a direct

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cap rate assumes that the properties from which the cap rate was extracted were very similar to the one

being valued.

Measures Of Investment Performance Based On Cash Flow Projections:

Net Present Value (NPV):

To find the NPV, first the present value (PV) of all the estimated future cash flows. Then the initial

cash outlay invested to acquire this investment is subtracted from this present value to obtain the net

present value.

NPV = Present Value of cash inflows - Present Value of cash outflows

Thus, NPV measures the extent, if any, that the present value of cash flows to be received from the

investment exceeds the equity invested in the property. A positive NPV indicates that the value of the

investment in present value terms exceeds the equity investment. The NPV obviously depends on the

discount rate used to calculate the present value of cash inflows. This discount rate should reflect the

minimum rate of return that the investor requires to make the investment, considering the risk of the

investment. NPV is an opportunity cost concept in that the return required for the investment being

analyzed should be at least as good as the return available on comparable investments. By investing in

the properties being analyzed, the investor must forgo the return that could have been earned on

alternative investment opportunities.

Internal Rate of Return:

The investment yield or IRR is the discount rate that equates the present value of the future cash

inflows with the initial cash outflow.

3.2 EVALUATION PARAMETERS

A. Loan To Value

B. Debt Service Coverage Ratio

C. Credit Tenants

D. Lease Rollover Risk

E. Location

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A. Loan To Value

One of the factors lenders consider before they approve a mortgage is the loan-to-value ratio

(LTV). The LTV is the loan amount expressed as a percent of either the purchase price or the

appraised value of the property. So, if you make a 20 percent cash down payment on a property you're

buying, the LTV is 80 percent. Or, if you're buying a property for $25 0,000 and the mortgage amount

is $200,000, the LTV is 80 percent (the $200,000 loan amount divided by the $250,000 purchase

price).

A mortgage with a high LTV is one where the mortgage amount is high relative to the

borrower's cash down payment or to the equity in the property. For example, if the LTV is 95 percent,the mortgage amount is equal to 95 percent of the purchase price and the buyer's cash down payment

is equal to only 5 percent of the price. From a lender's perspective, a high LTV mortgage is more risky

than one where the LTV is low. When borrowers make a large cash down payment, or have a large

equity in a property, they are less likely to default on the mortgage. Borrowers with less equity in a

property have less to lose which puts lenders more at risk.

B. Debt Service Coverage Ratio

The debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) is the NOI divided by debt service.

DSCR = NOI

----------------

Debt Service

The DSCR is indicative of the ability of the propertys income stream to service the loan. The lender

fixes a minimum required DSCR that is expected from a property which is to be financed. The DSCR

projections over the loan period are compared against this benchmark and the risk associated with the

propertys income streams is assessed.

C. Credit Tenants

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Credit Tenants are those tenants whose creditworthiness is high and default risk is almost nil. Credit

tenants play a major role in retail properties. They also play the role of anchor tenants who attract

more customers than an ordinary tenant. These tenants are usually rated by Credit Rating Agencies

like Standards & Poors and Moodys .The concept of credit tenants plays an important role in risk

return analysis and in valuation. Therefore the number of credit tenants in retail properties and their

contribution to the revenue helps us in determining the profitability of the proposal. The more the

credit tenants and the area occupied by them the lesser the risk.

Table 3.1 Credit Rating Table

D. Lease Rollover risk

Rollover is the probability that an existing tenant might continue to occupy the space. It is a risk to the

owners of the building and to the lenders. Incase of a rollover, the landlord has to take some efforts to

29

General Credit Quality Standard & Poors Moody's

INVESTMENTGRADE

AAAAA+AAAA-A+AA-

BBB+BBBBBB-BB+BBBB-

AAAAA1AA2AA3A1A2A3

Baa1Baa2Baa3Baa1Baa2Baa3

NON-INVESTMENT GRADE

B+BB-

Ba1Ba2Ba3


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bring in new tenants to the building. The occupancy of the building depends on various factors like

location, market rent, anchor tenants existing in the building and the various demand & supply factors.

This is a risk. If the landlord is unable to bring in a tenant within the stipulated time, it might result in

downtime leading to vacancy in the building. This would affect the Debt Service of the borrower in

turn affecting the lender. Thus the rollover risk has to be considered before evaluating the proposals

for retail properties. The longer the rollover, lesser is the risk.

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CHAPTER V - DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

PROPERTY #1

Name : Altamont Avenue

Type : Retail

Net Rentable Area : 60,802 SF

Value : $ 10,197,191

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Table 5.1

CASH FLOWS

For the Years Ending

POTENTIAL GROSS REVEN

Base Rental Revenue32


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CASH FLOWS

For the Years Ending

POTENTIAL GROSS REVEN

Base Rental Revenue

Absorption & Turnover Vacan

Table 5.2 Terminal Value Calculation

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Terminal Value Calculation

Valuation Term 10 Years

Year 11 NOI $1,248,948

Terminal Cap Rate 8.00%

Gross Sale Proceeds $15,611,850

Net Sale Proceeds $15,611,850 Table 5.3 Present Value Summary

Present Value Summary

Total PSF %

$6,019,044 $98.99 59.0%4,178,147 68.72 41.0%

Total Present Value $10,197,000 $167.71 100.0%

PV of Residual @ 10.0%PV of Cash Flow @ 10.0%

Interpretation:

Here we have assumed a 10 year holding period irrespective of the useful life of the asset. At the end of the 10th year, the

property is assumed to be sold. So, the 11th year NOI is capitalized to get the Net Sale Proceeds. The capitalized value is

then discounted to get the present value. This value is added to the present value of the 10 year cash flows to get the

value of the property.

Table 5.4 NPV Sensitivity Table

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9.50% 9.75% 10.00% 10.25% 10.50%

7.50% $11,009 $10,801 $10,598 $10,400 $10,206

(181.06) (177.65) (174.31) (171.05) (167.86)

7.75% $10,792 $10,590 $10,391 $10,198 $10,009

(177.50) (174.16) (170.90) (167.72) (164.61)

8.00% $10,589 $10,391 $10,197 $10,008 $9,823

(174.16) (170.90) (167.71) (164.60) (161.56)

8.25% $10,398 $10,204 $10,015 $9,830 $9,649

(171.02) (167.83) (164.71) (161.67) (158.69)

8.50% $10,219 $10,029 $9,843 $9,662 $9,485

(168.06) (164.94) (161.89) (158.91) (155.99)

Discount Rate

TerminalCapRate

Interpretation:

The above table shows the resulting Net Present Value of the property in response to the fluctuations in Cap rate and

Discount rate due to changes in market conditions.

Table 5.5 Sensitivity Of DSCR And LTV To Changes In Interest Rates And Cap Rates

Debt Service Coverage Matrix Loan To Value Matrix

Interest Rate Debt Service DSCR Direct Cap. Rate Value LTV

5.75% $566,196 1.20 7.00% $9,746,000 82.1%

6.25% $593,702 1.15 7.50% $9,096,000 88.0%

6.75% $621,820 1.10 8.00% $8,528,000 93.8%

7.25% $650,526 1.05 8.50% $8,026,000 99.7%

7.75% $679,796 1.00 9.00% $7,580,000 105.5%

The above tables show the corresponding changes in Debt Service Coverage Ratio to the changing Interest rates and the

changes in the Loan To Value corresponding changes in Cap Rates. Clients generally require this table for their decision

making.

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Table 5.6 Lease Expiration

TENANT SUITE

MADISON LINEN 401 480

HEBRON YESHIVA 406 536

MERCHA NT RENA ISSA NCE 503 712

BUREKHOVICH TRAVEL 504 1,575

INNO FUND CORP. 505 1,100

SA LOMON ENGINEERING 803 1,125

GLAMOUR (USA), INC. 407 776

SAMUEL SANG HYON 502 2,081

SENECA TRADING, INC. 610 752

PRIMARY RESOURCE 901 2,000

KA M CONSULTING SERV ICE 410 650

WELLINK PRODUCTS 603 1,210

BEST STYLES, INC. 0604A 2,145

URBAN OUTDOOR 701 400

MA RKETING GRA PHICS, INC 707 636

C & M INTERNATIONAL 708 600

J & J CORP. 201 1,215BEST SILVER, INC. 0205A 4,130

TIME CENTER, INC. STOR3 315

J & J CORP. STOR5 682

KI KI JEWELRY CORP 605 1,000

WENCY LLC 408 1,460

HERITAGE, INC. 810 1,275

HOWARD NOWES 405 640

K. YOUNG A SSESSARIES 508 1,800

AFRICAN ANGELS STOR4 445

STATE TO STATE RISK 802 553

CIRCLEX CORPORATION 601 1,782

BEST STYLES, INC. 0610A 460

EMPORIO PLUS, INC. 0703A 365

SECURE TRADING EST. 801 410

V ERMA NI PERFUMES STOR7

un-2013Jun-201 un-2015un-2009 un-2010 un-2011Jun-2012For the Years Ending Jun-200 Jun-2007 un-200

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TENANT SUITE

MADISON LINEN 401 480

HEBRON YESHIVA 406 536

MERCHA NT RENA ISSA NCE 503 712

BUREKHOVICH TRAVEL 504 1,575

INNO FUND CORP. 505 1,100SA LOMON ENGINEERING 803 1,125

GLAMOUR (USA), INC. 407 776

SAMUEL SANG HYON 502 2,081

SENECA TRADING, INC. 610 752

PRIMARY RESOURCE 901 2,000

KA M CONSULTING SERV ICE 410 650

WELLINK PRODUCTS 603 1,210

BEST STYLES, INC. 0604A 2,145

URBAN OUTDOOR 701 400

MA RKETING GRA PHICS, INC 707 636

C & M INTERNATIONAL 708 600

J & J CORP. 201 1,215

BEST SILVER, INC. 0205A 4,130

TIME CENTER, INC. STOR3 315

J & J CORP. STOR5 682

KI KI JEWELRY CORP 605 1,000

WENCY LLC 408 1,460

HERITAGE, INC. 810 1,275

HOWARD NOWES 405 640

K. YOUNG A SSESSARIES 508 1,800

AFRICAN ANGELS STOR4 445

STATE TO STATE RISK 802 553

CIRCLEX CORPORATION 601 1,782

BEST STYLES, INC. 0610A 460

EMPORIO PLUS, INC. 0703A 365

SECURE TRADING EST. 801 410

V ERMA NI PERFUMES STOR7BEST STYLES INC. 400 1,800

AA & TC, INC. 706 1,400

HIND FASHION, INC. 800 1,037

EARTH MECHANICAL CORP 806 1,044

UNICOM CRAFTS, INC. 809 1,063

GENESIS INTERNATIONAL STOR2 689

LUCKY SILVER INC. 404 1,000

LUCKY GEM, INC. 300 630

LUCKY GEM, INC. 301 1,295

ABLE JEWELRY CREATION 305 530

LUCKY GEM, INC. 308 5,107

TOP SALE TRADE USA 807 1,700

HAN SOL USA GROUP, INC. 704 600

BARATO TRADING STOR6 1,000

SILVER GALORE, INC. STOR8 881

GURU IMPORTS, INC. 202 625

DECENT TRADING, INC. STOR1 2,000

TOTAL 30,337 23,842 4,506 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

% of Total SF Expiring 49.89% 39.21% 7.41% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Culm ulative Expiration 49.89% 89.1% 96.5% 96.5% 96.5% 96.5% 96.5% 96.5% 96.5% 96.5%

un-2013Jun-201 un-2015un-2009 un-2010 un-2011Jun-2012For the Years Ending Jun-200 Jun-2007 un-200

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Fig 5.1 Lease Expiration Chart

Year % of NRA % of NRA Expiring CumulativeJun-2006 2006 2006 49.9% 49.9%Jun-2007 2007 2007 39.2% 89.1%Jun-2008 2008 2008 7.4% 96.5%Jun-2009 2009 2009 0.0% 96.5%

Jun-2010 2010 2010 0.0% 96.5%Jun-2011 2011 2011 0.0% 96.5%

Jun-2012 2012 2012 0.0% 96.5%Jun-2013 2013 2013 0.0% 96.5%

Jun-2014 2014 2014 0.0% 96.5%Jun-2015 2015 2015 0.0% 96.5%

Interpretation

The above chart depicts the percentage of Net Rentable Area completing the first lease

rollover. Table 6 shows the total square foot of first rollover of each tenant.

The information was obtained from the lease agreements. Whenever there is a lease

rollover, there is a probability of either the tenant renewing the lease or vacating. This risk is

shown above. Here 96.5 % gets rolled over within 3 years, hence the risk is high.

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Table 5.7 Rent Roll

Tenant Suite No. SF % of Total Rent/SF Annual % of Annual

SF Income Income

Credit Tenants

J & J CORP. STOR5 682 1.1% $138.56 $94,501 4.5%

J & J CORP. 0201 1,215 2.0% $13.00 $15,790 0.7%

Credit Tenants Total/Average 1,897 3.1% $58.14 $110,291 5.2%

Non-Credit Tenants

DECENT TRADING, INC. STOR1 1,487 2.4% $196.98 $292,903 13.9%

GENESIS INTERNATIONAL STOR2 1,000 1.6% 156.60 156,600 7.4%

TIME CENTER, INC. STOR3 315 0.5% 197.78 62,300 2.9%

AFRICAN ANGELS STOR4 445 0.7% 321.35 143,002 6.8%

BARATO TRADING STOR6 881 1.4% 194.10 170,998 8.1%

VERMANI PERFUMES STOR7 1,800 3.0% 53.17 95,706 4.5%

SILVER GALORE, INC. STOR8 625 1.0% 115.20 72,000 3.4%

GURU IMPORTS, INC. 0202 2,000 3.3% 24.90 49,800 2.4%

BEST SILVER, INC. 0205A 4,130 6.8% 11.14 45,998 2.2%

LUCKY GEM, INC. 0300 1,295 2.1% 24.68 31,961 1.5%

LUCKY GEM, INC. 0301 530 0.9% 24.68 13,080 0.6%

ABLE JEWELRY CREATION 0305 5,107 8.4% 24.08 122,977 5.8%

LUCKY GEM, INC. 0308 1,700 2.8% 24.68 41,956 2.0%BEST STYLES INC. 0400 1,400 2.3% 24.86 34,804 1.6%

MADISON LINEN 0401 480 0.8% 12.71 6,100 0.3%

GLAMOUR LINE INC. 0402 500 0.8% 25.20 12,600 0.6%

DYNAMIC AIRCONDITIONING 0403 400 0.7% 29.63 11,850 0.6%

LUCKY SILVER INC. 0404 630 1.0% 28.57 17,999 0.9%

HOWARD NOWES 0405 640 1.1% 23.46 15,013 0.7%

HEBRON YESHIVA 0406 536 0.9% 11.63 6,231 0.3%

GLAMOUR (USA), INC. 0407 776 1.3% 12.23 9,490 0.4%

WENCY LLC 0408 1,460 2.4% 18.08 26,397 1.2%

KAM CONSULTING SERVICE 0410 650 1.1% 11.51 7,479 0.4%

SAMUEL SANG HYON 0502 2,081 3.4% 12.58 26,186 1.2%

MERCHANT RENAISSANCE 0503 712 1.2% 12.80 9,114 0.4%

BUREKHOVICH TRAVEL 0504 1,575 2.6% 12.42 19,555 0.9%

INNO FUND CORP. 0505 1,100 1.8% 13.02 14,317 0.7%

K. YOUNG ASSESSARIES 0508 1,800 3.0% 19.86 35,756 1.7%CIRCLEX CORPORATION 0601 1,782 2.9% 25.59 45,595 2.2%

WELLINK PRODUCTS 0603 1,210 2.0% 14.91 18,045 0.9%

BEST STYLES, INC. 0604A 2,145 3.5% 11.67 25,032 1.2%

KI KI JEWELRY CORP 0605 1,000 1.6% 13.65 13,650 0.6%

SENECA TRADING, INC. 0610 752 1.2% 12.65 9,510 0.5%

BEST STYLES, INC. 0610A 460 0.8% 27.18 12,502 0.6%

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P.O.M. PLANNING SERVICE 0700 1,042 1.7% 19.58 20,402 1.0%

URBAN OUTDOOR 0701 400 0.7% 13.08 5,233 0.2%

METRO OFFICE FURNITURE 0702 630 1.0% 20.95 13,199 0.6%

EMPORIO PLUS, INC. 0703A 365 0.6% 29.59 10,800 0.5%

HAN SOL USA GROUP, INC. 0704 1,000 1.6% 28.60 28,600 1.4%

AA & TC, INC. 0706 1,037 1.7% 26.04 27,003 1.3%MARKETING GRAPHICS, INC 0707 636 1.0% 12.92 8,215 0.4%

C & M INTERNATIONAL 0708 600 1.0% 12.92 7,750 0.4%

HIND FASHION, INC. 0800 1,044 1.7% 23.18 24,202 1.1%

SECURE TRADING EST. 0801 410 0.7% 26.95 11,049 0.5%

1220 BROADWAY BUSINESS 0801A 1,032 1.7% 27.91 28,803 1.4%

STATE TO STATE RISK 0802 553 0.9% 25.50 14,102 0.7%

SALOMON ENGINEERING 0803 1,125 1.9% 13.01 14,637 0.7%

EARTH MECHANICAL CORP 0806 1,063 1.7% 29.54 31,399 1.5%

TOP SALE TRADE USA 0807 600 1.0% 23.00 13,800 0.7%

UNICOM CRAFTS, INC. 0809 689 1.1% 26.27 18,098 0.9%

HERITAGE, INC. 0810 1,275 2.1% 22.74 28,996 1.4%

PRIMARY RESOURCE 0901 2,000 3.3% 9.93 19,867 0.9%

Non-Credit Total/Average 58,905 96.9% $34.00 $2,002,661 94.8%

Total/Average 60,802 100.0% $34.75 $2,112,952 100.0%

Interpretation:

The above table shows whether the tenants are credit tenants or not. This information was

searched from websites such as Standard & Poors, Moodys and Fitch to find out the credit

rating of each tenant. Then they are rated as credit and non-credit based on the credit rating

table. A credit tenant generally is an anchor tenant who attracts customers to the property.

His lease lasts long and he is a credit worthy tenant. The area occupied by the tenant and

the income generated by them is also shown in the table.

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PROPERTY #2

Name : Orchards

Type : Retail


Value : $ 10,195,446

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Table 5.8 Cash Flows

For the Years Ending Jun-2006 Jun-2007 Jun-2008 Jun-2009 Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015 Jun-2016

POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE

Bas e Rental Rev enue $747,767 $780,567 $804,824 $828,481 $833,249 $857,447 $903,593 $919,405 $958,492 $1,003,625 $1,060,211

Absorption & Turnover Vacancy 0 0 (3,278) 0 0 (13,842) 0 (3,800) (8,313) (5,258) (25,792)

Scheduled Base Rental Revenue 747,767 780,567 801,546 828,481 833,249 843,605 903,593 915,605 950,179 998,367 1,034,419

Expense Reimbursement Revenue 356,876 366,479 374,715 386,121 396,235 400,557 418,137 427,917 438,787 452,442 458,089

TOTAL POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE $1,104,643 $1,147,046 $1,176,261 $1,214,602 $1,229,484 $1,244,162 $1,321,730 $1,343,522 $1,388,966 $1,450,809 $1,492,508

General Vacancy (33,139) (34,411) (32,108) (36,438) (36,885) (23,898) (39,652) (36,620) (33,605) (38,424) (19,757)

Collection Loss (22,093) (22,941) (23,525) (24,292) (24,590) (24,883) (26,435) (26,870) (27,779) (29,016) (29,850)

EFFECTIVE GROSS REVENUE $1,049,411 $1,089,694 $1,120,628 $1,153,872 $1,168,009 $1,195,381 $1,255,643 $1,280,032 $1,327,582 $1,383,369 $1,442,901

OPERATING EXPENSES

Grease Trap Pumping $1,250 $1,288 $1,326 $1,366 $1,407 $1,449 $1,493 $1,537 $1,583 $1,631 $1,680

Alarm Monitoring 300 309 318 328 338 348 358 369 380 391 403

Elevator 1,200 1,236 1,273 1,311 1,351 1,391 1,433 1,476 1,520 1,566 1,613

Management Fee 31,482 32,691 33,619 34,616 35,040 35,861 37,669 38,401 39,827 41,501 43,287

Liability Expense 27,000 27,810 28,644 29,504 30,389 31,300 32,239 33,207 34,203 35,229 36,286

Administration Charges 1,000 1,030 1,061 1,093 1,126 1,159 1,194 1,230 1,267 1,305 1,344

Other CAM 115,294 118,753 122,315 125,985 129,764 133,657 137,667 141,797 146,051 150,433 154,945

Real Estate Taxes 102,000 106,080 110,323 114,736 119,326 124,099 129,063 134,225 139,594 145,178 150,985

TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES $279,526 $289,197 $298,879 $308,939 $318,741 $329,264 $341,116 $352,242 $364,425 $377,234 $390,543

NET OPERATING INCOME $769,885 $800,497 $821,749 $844,933 $849,268 $866,117 $914,527 $927,790 $963,157 $1,006,135 $1,052,358

LEASING & CAPITAL COSTS

Tenant Improvements $0 $0 $12,293 $0 $0 $26,373 $26,299 $14,251 $4,988 $19,718 $41,158

Leasing Commissions 0 0 9,835 0 0 21,099 21,039 11,401 24,940 15,775 79,829

Capital Reserve 5,927 6,105 6,288 6,477 6,671 6,871 7,077 7,290 7,508 7,734 7,966

TOTAL LEASING & CAPITAL COSTS $5,927 $6,105 $28,416 $6,477 $6,671 $54,343 $54,415 $32,942 $37,436 $43,227 $128,953

CASH FLOW BEFORE DEBT SERVICE $763,958 $794,392 $793,333 $838,456 $842,597 $811,774 $860,112 $894,848 $925,721 $962,908 $923,405

& TAXES

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Table 5.9 Present Value Summary


Total PSF %

$5,071,620 $128.35 49.7%

5,123,826 129.67 50.3%


PV of Residual @ 10.0%

PV of Cash Flow @ 10.0%



Valuation Term 10 Years

Year 11 NOI $1,052,358



Net Sale Proceeds $13,154,475

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Present Value Analysis - Total/(PSF) (in '000s)

9.50% 9.75% 10.00% 10.25% 10.50%

7.50% $10,902 $10,716 $10,534 $10,356 $10,181

(275.90) (271.20) (266.59) (262.08) (257.66)

7.75% $10,719 $10,537 $10,359 $10,185 $10,015

(271.27) (266.66) (262.16) (257.76) (253.45)

8.00% $10,548 $10,370 $10,195 $10,025 $9,858

(266.94) (262.44) (258.02) (253.71) (249.48)

8.25% $10,387 $10,213 $10,042 $9,875 $9,711

(262.87) (258.47) (254.14) (249.91) (245.76)

8.50% $10,236 $10,065 $9,897 $9,733 $9,573

(259.05) (254.72) (250.47) (246.32) (242.27)

Discount Rate

Term

inalCapRate

Table 5.12 Sensitivity Of DSCR And LTV To Changes In Interest Rates And Cap Rate



5.75% $566,196 1.36 7.00% $10,998,000 63.6%

6.25% $593,702 1.30 7.50% $10,265,000 68.2%

6.75% $621,820 1.24 8.00% $9,624,000 72.7%

7.25% $650,526 1.18 8.50% $9,057,000 77.3%

7.75% $679,796 1.13 9.00% $8,554,000 81.8%

Interpretation:The Debt Service Coverage Ratios of this property are acceptable and the Loan To Value Values are in good range. The

risk is low in this property for the lender.

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TENANT

Procare 1,854

OBGYN Associates 3,640

Dr. Messo 3,524

C & L Bagels L.L.C. 1,525

Little Expressions 1,494

Gingers Salon 3,150

J & K Interiors 3,150

Estate Jewelry 605

Xact Solutions 2,965

American Realty 1,390

Hip Yoga, L.L.C. 1,575

Monmouth Health 2,418

Art & San L.L.C.

TOTAL 1,854 0 7,164 9,319 4,960 1,575 0 0 0 2,418


Culmulative Expiration 4.69% 4.7% 22.8% 46.4% 59.0% 62.9% 62.9% 62.9% 62.9% 69.1%

Speculative leases are not included in the Lease Expiration Schedule.

For the Years Ending Jun-2006 Jun-2007 Jun-2008 Jun-2009 Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015

45


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Fig 5.2 Lease Expiration Chart

Lease Expiration Analysis

23.6%

12.6%

4.0%0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

6.1%4.7%0.0%

18.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% of NRA Expir ing Annual ly % of NRA Expir ing Cumulative

Year % of NRA % of NRA Expiring Cumulative

Jun-2006 2006 2006 4.7% 4.7%Jun-2007 2007 2007 0.0% 4.7%

Jun-2008 2008 2008 18.1% 22.8%Jun-2009 2009 2009 23.6% 46.4%

Jun-2010 2010 2010 12.6% 59.0%Jun-2011 2011 2011 4.0% 62.9%

Jun-2012 2012 2012 0.0% 62.9%Jun-2013 2013 2013 0.0% 62.9%

Jun-2014 2014 2014 0.0% 62.9%

Jun-2015 2015 2015 6.1% 69.1%Apr-2016 42461 2016 0.0% 69.1%

Interpretation

The chart shows that 69.1 % of the net rentable area is at risk of vacation loss after the first

lease is completed for all the tenants.

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Table 5.14 Rent Roll

For the Years Ending Suite No. SF % of Total Rent/SF Annual % of Annual

ncome ncomeTenants

C & L Bagels L.L.C. A 1,525 3.9% $22.23 $33,897 4.5%

Art & San L.L.C. B,C,D 4,725 12.0% 23.67 111,857 15.0%

Little Expressions E 1,494 3.8% 22.16 33,100 4.4%

Orchards Cleaners F 1,557 3.9% 20.89 32,518 4.3%

Gingers Salon G, H 3,150 8.0% 22.24 70,046 9.4%

Perkins J, K 3,404 8.6% 17.74 60,401 8.1%

R.G. Holding L 1,288 3.3% 3.75 4,830 0.6%

Blooming Things M 1,250 3.2% 21.65 27,067 3.6%

Estate Jewelry M (Fro 605 1.5% 21.44 12,972 1.7%

J & K Interiors N, P 3,150 8.0% 21.51 67,757 9.1%

Xact Solutions Q, R 2,965 7.5% 20.19 59,849 8.0%

Hip Yoga, L.L.C. S 1,575 4.0% 21.01 33,091 4.4%

American Realty T 1,390 3.5% 20.96 29,130 3.9%

Monmouth Health A & D 2,418 6.1% 16.00 38,688 5.2%

Dr. Messo B/C1 3,524 8.9% 14.19 50,017 6.7%

Procare C2 1,854 4.7% 15.14 28,068 3.8%

OBGYN Associates C3 3,640 9.2% 14.97 54,479 7.3%

Total/Average 39,514 100.0% $319.73 $747,767 100.0%

Interpretation:

This property does not have any credit tenants. So the property does not have any major

anchor tenant who can drive in customers. This is a disadvantage for the property.

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PROPERTY #3

Name : Sunrise

Type : Retail


Value : $ 7,369,616

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For the Years Ending Jun-2006 Jun-2007 Jun-2008 Jun-2009 Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015 Jun-2016


Base Rental Revenue $690,685 $767,267 $791,944 $851,758 $934,986 $980,295 $1,006,732 $1,032,265 $1,059,673 $1,090,746 $1,117,164

Abs orption & Turnover V acancy (7,578) (8,226) (2,245) (27,021) ( 17,483) ( 69,932) (15,406) (3,274) (34,005) ( 20,268) (81,071)

Scheduled Base Rental Revenue $683,107 $759,041 $789,699 $824,737 $917,503 $910,363 $991,326 $1,028,991 $1,025,668 $1,070,478 $1,036,093

Base Rental Step Revenue 90,857 67,874 60,213 45,570 273 0 0 0 0 0 0

Miscellaneous Rental Revenue 109,671 13,671 4,071 4,071 678 0 0 0 0 0 0Expense Reimbursement Revenue 41,823 39,703 42,620 40,863 20,949 22,050 24,421 29,495 30,817 26,158 25,852

TOTAL POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE $925,458 $880,289 $896,603 $915,241 $939,403 $932,413 $1,015,747 $1,058,486 $1,056,485 $1,096,636 $1,061,945Collection Loss (9,255) (8,803) (8,966) (9,152) (9,394) (9,324) (10,157) (10,585) (10,565) (10,966) (10,619)

EFFECTIVE GROSS REVENUE $916,203 $871,486 $887,637 $906,089 $930,009 $923,089 $1,005,590 $1,047,901 $1,045,920 $1,085,670 $1,051,326

OPERATING EXPENSES

Insurance $17,453 $17,977 $18,516 $19,071 $19,644 $20,233 $20,840 $21,465 $22,109 $22,772 $23,455

Contract Services 4,505 4,640 4,780 4,923 5,071 5,222 5,379 5,541 5,707 5,878 6,055

Repairs & Maintenance 10,352 10,663 10,982 11,312 11,651 12,001 12,361 12,732 13,114 13,507 13,912

Cleaning 10,307 10,616 10,935 11,263 11,601 11,949 12,307 12,676 13,057 13,448 13,852

Utilities 71,544 73,690 75,901 78,178 80,523 82,939 85,427 87,990 90,630 93,349 96,149

Management Fees 27,486 26,145 26,629 27,183 27,900 27,693 30,168 31,437 31,378 32,570 31,540

Salaries & Benefits 53,170 54,765 56,408 58,100 59,843 61,639 63,488 65,392 67,354 69,375 71,456

Office Costs 10,846 11,171 11,506 11,851 12,208 12,572 12,952 13,338 13,739 14,153 14,577Real Estate Taxes 32,987 33,647 34,320 35,006 35,706 36,420 37,149 37,892 38,650 39,423 40,211

TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES $238,650 $243,314 $249,977 $256,887 $264,147 $270,668 $280,071 $288,463 $295,738 $304,475 $311,207

NET OPERATING INCOME $677,553 $628,172 $637,660 $649,202 $665,862 $652,421 $725,519 $759,438 $750,182 $781,195 $740,119


Tenant Improvements $40,000 $12,691 $0 $23,221 $13,841 $55,363 $7,163 $7,776 $26,921 $16,046 $64,181

Leasing Commissions 41,284 11,064 0 20,246 12,067 48,266 6,245 6,779 23,470 13,988 55,953

Capital Reserves 4,512 4,648 4,787 4,931 5,079 5,231 5,388 5,549 5,716 5,887 6,064

TOTAL LEASING & CAPITAL COSTS $85,796 $28,403 $4,787 $48,398 $30,987 $108,860 $18,796 $20,104 $56,107 $35,921 $126,198

CASH FLOW BEFORE DEBT SERVICE $591,757 $599,769 $632,873 $600,804 $634,875 $543,561 $706,723 $739,334 $694,075 $745,274 $613,921

& TAXES

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Total PSF %

$3,566,834 $79.05 48.3%

3,819,100 84.64 51.7%






Valuation Term 10 YearsYear 11 NOI $740,119




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9.50% 9.75% 10.00% 10.25% 10.50%

6.50% $7,981 $7,846 $7,714 $7,586 $7,460

(176.88) (173.88) (170.96) (168.12) (165.33)

6.75% $7,852 $7,720 $7,592 $7,466 $7,343

(174.02) (171.09) (168.25) (165.46) (162.74)

7.00% $7,732 $7,603 $7,370 $7,353 $7,233

(171.36) (168.50) (163.33) (162.96) (160.30)

7.25% $7,619 $7,492 $7,369 $7,248 $7,129

(168.85) (166.04) (163.31) (160.63) (157.99)7.50% $7,512 $7,388 $7,267 $7,148 $7,032

(166.48) (163.73) (161.05) (158.41) (155.84)

Discount Rate

TerminalCapRate




5.75% $566,196 1.03 7.00% $8,338,000 89.9%

6.25% $593,702 0.98 7.50% $7,782,000 96.4%

6.75% $621,820 0.94 8.00% $7,296,000 102.8%

7.25% $650,526 0.90 8.50% $6,867,000 109.2%

7.75% $679,796 0.86 9.00% $6,485,000 115.7%

Interpretation:The Debt Service Coverage Ratio is lower than 1, which means that the income of the borrower may not be sufficient

enough to service his debt. The Loan To Value is also on the higher side. Typically LTVs greater than 100% call for huge

risks.

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TENANT SUITE

New Paradigm Investment 210 1,263

Dr. Lang, MD 230 1,105

Mercy Healthcare 300 7,921

Dr. John Von Brecht 260 1,331

Dr. Gloria S. Simard 220 1,058

Dr. Lang, MD 230 1,105

Sierra Foothills Thorac 250 2,311

CHW Medical 100 17,030

Mercy Blood Draw Lab 270 460

Dr. Shaari, DDS 290 2,129

Dr. Daisuke Bannai 240 1,350

Dr. Carol F. Milazzo 280 1,504

Sierra Counseling 310B 7,200

TOTAL 2,368 9,252 4,474 17,030 2,589 10,054 0 0 0 0




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Fig.53 Lease Expiration Chart


37.7%

5.7%

22.3%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

9.9%20.5%

5.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% of NRA Expiring Annually % of NRA Expiring Cumulative

Year % of NRA % of NRA Expiring CumulativeJun-2006 2006 2006 5.2% 5.2%Jun-2007 2007 2007 20.5% 25.8%Jun-2008 2008 2008 9.9% 35.7%Jun-2009 2009 2009 37.7% 73.4%Jun-2010 2010 2010 5.7% 79.1%

Jun-2011 2011 2011 22.3% 101.4%Jun-2012 2012 2012 0.0% 101.4%

Jun-2013 2013 2013 0.0% 101.4%Jun-2014 2014 2014 0.0% 101.4%Jun-2015 2015 2015 0.0% 101.4%

Interpretation:

The probability of the property becoming 100% vacant arises in the 6 th year itself. The

rollover risk is high.

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Tenant Suite No. SF % of Total Rent/SF Annual % of Annual

SF Income Income

Non-Credit Tenants

CHW Medical 0100 17,030 37.7% $11.09 $188,873 27.6%

New Paradigm Investment 0210 1,263 2.8% 15.57 19,665 2.9%

Dr. Gloria S. Simard 0220 1,058 2.3% 22.25 23,540 3.4%

Dr. Lang, MD 0230 1,105 2.4% 21.00 23,205 3.4%

Dr. Daisuke Bannai 0240 1,350 3.0% 18.80 25,380 3.7%

Sierra Foothills Thorac 0250 2,311 5.1% 21.00 48,528 7.1%

Dr. John Von Brecht 0260 1,331 2.9% 19.93 26,526 3.9%

Mercy Blood Draw Lab 0270 460 1.0% 23.88 10,987 1.6%

Dr. Shaari, DDS 0290 2,129 4.7% 23.99 51,065 7.5%

Mercy Healthcare 0300 7,921 17.6% 11.43 90,525 13.3%

Nextel Communications 0350 460 1.0% 37.80 17,389 2.5%

Dr.Carol F. Milazza 0280 1,504 3.3% 18.50 27,824 4.1%

Sierra Counselling 310 B 7,200 16.0% 18.00 129,600 19.0%Non-Credit Total/Average 45,122 100.0% $245.24 $683,107 100.0%

Total/Average 45,122 100.0% $15.14 $683,107 100.0%

Interpretation:

This property does not have any credit tenants. So the property does not have any major

anchor tenant who can drive in customers. This is a disadvantage for the property.

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PROPERTY #4

Name : Georges Avenue

Type : Retail


Value : $ 9,788,461

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Bas e Rental Rev enue $765,438 $797,918 $818,131 $886,069 $906,913 $940,397 $986,265 $1,018,045 $1,059,939 $1,143,260

Absorption & Turnover Vacancy 0 (14,163) (9,061) 0 (2,814) (23,623) (13,433) (19,729) (16,086) (6,864)

Sche dule d Bas e Re ntal Re ve nue $765,438 $783,755 $809,070 $886,069 $904,099 $916,774 $972,832 $998,316 $1,043,853 $1,136,396

Expense Reimbursement Revenue 352,395 370,896 387,329 404,997 419,203 423,576 401,239 417,775 442,850 470,033

TOTAL POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE $1,117,833 $1,154,651 $1,196,399 $1,291,066 $1,323,302 $1,340,350 $1,374,071 $1,416,091 $1,486,703 $1,606,429

General Vacancy (33,535) (20,901) (27,103) (38,732) (36,969) (17,296) (28,192) (23,346) (28,998) (41,535)

Collection Loss (22,357) (23,093) (23,928) (25,821) (26,466) (26,807) (27,481) (28,322) (29,734) (32,129)

EFFECTIVE GROSS REVENUE $1,061,941 $1,110,657 $1,145,368 $1,226,513 $1,259,867 $1,296,247 $1,318,398 $1,364,423 $1,427,971 $1,532,765

OPERATING EXPENSES

Real Estate Taxes $149,876 $155,871 $162,106 $168,590 $175,334 $182,347 $189,641 $197,227 $205,116 $213,320Water/Sew er 9,296 9,575 9,862 10,158 10,463 10,777 11,100 11,433 11,776 12,129

Insurance 32,016 32,976 33,966 34,985 36,034 37,115 38,229 39,376 40,557 41,774

Utilities 13,892 14,309 14,738 15,180 15,636 16,105 16,588 17,085 17,598 18,126

Landscaping 34,531 35,567 36,634 37,733 38,865 40,031 41,232 42,469 43,743 45,055

Trash Removal 8,965 9,234 9,511 9,796 10,090 10,393 10,705 11,026 11,357 11,697

Snow Removal 20,440 21,053 21,685 22,335 23,005 23,696 24,406 25,139 25,893 26,670

Payroll/Taxes 12,000 12,360 12,731 13,113 13,506 13,911 14,329 14,758 15,201 15,657

Repairs & Maintenance 53,097 55,533 57,268 61,326 62,993 64,812 65,920 68,221 71,399 76,638

Management Fee 31,858 33,320 34,361 36,795 37,796 38,887 39,552 40,933 42,839 45,983

TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES $365,971 $379,798 $392,862 $410,011 $423,722 $438,074 $451,702 $467,667 $485,479 $507,049

NET OPERATING INCOM E $695,970 $730,859 $752,506 $816,502 $836,145 $858,173 $866,696 $896,756 $942,492 $1,025,716


Tenant Improvements $15,000 $6,953 $7,028 $0 $1,688 $4,347 $16,494 $11,838 $7,917 $5,904

Leasing Commissions 18,750 34,763 35,143 0 8,441 21,736 90,905 59,187 39,587 29,521

Reserves 6,641 6,840 7,045 7,256 7,474 7,698 7,929 8,167 8,412 8,665

CASH FLOW BEFORE DEBT SERV ICE $655,579 $682,303 $703,290 $809,246 $818,542 $824,392 $751,368 $817,564 $886,576 $981,626

& TAXES


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9.50% 9.75% 10.00% 10.25% 10.50%

7.50% $11,354 $11,152 $10,954 $10,761 $10,572

(256.47) (251.90) (247.43) (243.07) (238.80)

7.75% $11,113 $10,916 $10,724 $10,536 $10,352

(251.02) (246.57) (242.24) (237.99) (233.83)

8.00% $10,889 $10,698 $9,788 $10,327 $10,148

(245.96) (241.65) (221.10) (233.27) (229.22)

8.25% $10,681 $10,494 $10,311 $10,132 $9,958

(241.26) (237.04) (232.91) (228.86) (224.93)

8.50% $10,486 $10,304 $10,125 $9,951 $9,780

(236.86) (232.75) (228.71) (224.77) (220.91)

Discount Rate

Term

inalCapRate




5.75% $566,196 1.23 7.00% $9,942,000 80.5%

6.25% $593,702 1.17 7.50% $9,280,000 86.2%

6.75% $621,820 1.12 8.00% $8,700,000 92.0%

7.25% $650,526 1.07 8.50% $8,188,000 97.7%

7.75% $679,796 1.02 9.00% $7,733,000 103.5%

Interpretation:

The Debt Service Coverage Ratios of the property are closer to the ideal value. The Loan To Value is slightly higher. This

would have been acceptable if there were credit tenants in the property, which would have reduced the risk of getting

back the loan payments.

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TENANT SUITE

Dr. Mark Zeintek 1082 1,800

Classic Comics 1006 1,200

Two Girls Inc. 1000 1,200

Yuno Corp. 1090 1,200

Raymond & Susan 1050 5,000

JJ Pizza 1008 1,200

UPS Store (Jin Kim) 1092 1,200

Dr. Eugene & Tendler 1086 1,800

Saibaba Cellular 1002 1,100Ming Feng 998 1,095

Beneficial Finance 1004 1,325

Sip & Dip 1096 1,200

Community Distribution 1064 13,900

Bank of America 1034 5,651

Krauzer's Food Store 1100 2,400

TOTAL 1,800 9,800 4,100 2,420 15,100 5,651 0 2,400 0 0



Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015Jun-2009 Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012For the Years Ending Jun-2006 Jun-2007 Jun-2008

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60


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Fig.5.4 Lease Expiration Chart


0.0%5.4%

0.0% 0.0%

12.8%

34.1%

5.5%

9.3%22.1%

4.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Year % of NRA % of NRA Expiring CumulativeJun-2006 2005 2005 4.1% 4.1%Jun-2007 2006 2006 22.1% 26.2%Jun-2008 2007 2007 9.3% 35.5%Jun-2009 2008 2008 5.5% 40.9%Jun-2010 2009 2009 34.1% 75.0%

Jun-2011 2010 2010 12.8% 87.8%Jun-2012 2011 2011 0.0% 87.8%

Jun-2013 2012 2012 5.4% 93.2%Jun-2014 2013 2013 0.0% 93.2%Jun-2015 2014 2014 0.0% 93.2%

Interpretation

The Rollover risk is medium. Considering the first rollover term, the probability of building

becoming vacant is 75 % in 5 years and 93 % in 10 years.

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For the Years Ending Suite No. SF % of Total Rent/SF Annual % of Annual

SF Income IncomeCredit Tenants

Bank of America 1034 5,651 12.8% $27.72 $156,672 20.5%

Credit Tenants Total/Average 5,651 12.8% $27.72 $156,672 20.5%

Non-Credit Tenants

Two Girls Inc. 1000 1,200 2.7% $14.00 $16,800 2.2%

Saibaba Cellular 1002 1,100 2.5% 13.96 15,352 2.0%

Beneficial Finance 1004 1,325 3.0% 19.34 25,625 3.3%

Classic Comics 1006 1,200 2.7% 14.82 17,788 2.3%

JJ Pizza 1008 1,200 2.7% 26.00 31,200 4.1%

Community Distribution 1064 13,900 31.4% 11.20 155,680 20.3%

Raymond & Susan 1050 5,000 11.3% 12.48 62,417 8.2%

Dr. Mark Zeintek 1082 1,800 4.1% 27.35 49,233 6.4%

Dr. Eugene & Tendler 1086 1,800 4.1% 15.00 27,000 3.5%Yuno Corp. 1090 1,200 2.7% 22.10 26,520 3.5%

UPS Store (Jin Kim) 1092 1,200 2.7% 19.77 23,724 3.1%

Sip & Dip 1096 1,200 2.7% 23.05 27,662 3.6%

Krauzer's Food Store 1100 2,400 5.4% 21.63 51,911 6.8%

Ming Feng 0998 1,095 2.5% 19.73 21,604 2.8%

Non-Credit Total/Average 35,620 80.5% $15.51 $552,516 72.2%

Speculative lease 1110 3,000 6.8% 18.75 56,250 7.3%

Total/Average 44,271 100.0% $17.29 $765,438 100.0%

Interpretation:

The above table shows the list of credit and non credit tenants. The credit tenant Bank Of

America occupies 12.8 % of the total square foot and generates the maximum Income, 20.5%

of Total Annual Income.

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PROPERTY #5

Name : Tri Main

Type : Retail


Value : $ 11,516,794

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For the Years Ending Sep-2006 Sep-2007 Sep-2008 Sep-2009 Sep-2010 Sep-2011 Sep-2012 Sep-2013 Sep-2014 Sep-2015


Base Rental Revenue $2,175,461 $2,418,701 $2,430,989 $2,396,355 $2,425,699 $2,494,822 $2,679,437 $2,857,890 $3,004,543 $3,025,701

Absorption & Turnover Vacancy (110,161) (51,927) (27,154) (22,955) (14,371) (189,514) (111,027) (120,896) (49,805) (30,448)

Sc heduled Bas e Rental Rev enue 2,065,300 2,366,774 2,403,835 2,373,400 2,411,328 2,305,308 2,568,410 2,736,994 2,954,738 2,995,253

Expense Reimbursement Revenue 597,086 603,430 626,867 663,483 708,002 684,829 659,334 618,070 597,947 639,637

TOTAL POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE $2,705,293 $3,014,398 $3,076,222 $3,083,769 $3,167,622 $3,039,878 $3,278,977 $3,407,834 $3,607,038 $3,690,874

General Vacancy 0 (40,063) (65,947) (70,247) (81,089) 0 0 0 (59,900) (81,192)

Collection Loss (54,106) (60,288) (61,524) (61,675) (63,352) (60,798) (65,580) (68,157) (72,141) (73,817)

EFFECTIVE GROSS REVENUE $2,651,187 $2,914,047 $2,948,751 $2,951,847 $3,023,181 $2,979,080 $3,213,397 $3,339,677 $3,474,997 $3,535,865

OPERATING EXPENSES

Real Estate Taxes $112,000 $115,360 $118,821 $122,385 $126,057 $129,839 $133,734 $137,746 $141,878 $146,135

Electricity 413,375 425,776 438,550 451,706 465,257 479,215 493,591 508,399 523,651 539,361

Gas 246,000 253,380 260,981 268,811 276,875 285,181 293,737 302,549 311,625 320,974

Water 24,100 24,823 25,568 26,335 27,125 27,939 28,777 29,640 30,529 31,445

Management Fee 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000

Insurance 150,000 154,500 159,135 163,909 168,826 173,891 179,108 184,481 190,016 195,716

Operating Expenses - CAM 690,900 711,627 732,976 754,965 777,614 800,942 824,971 849,720 875,211 901,468

TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES $1,706,375 $1,755,466 $1,806,031 $1,858,111 $1,911,754 $1,967,007 $2,023,918 $2,082,535 $2,142,910 $2,205,099

NET OPERATING INCOME $944,812 $1,158,581 $1,142,720 $1,093,736 $1,111,427 $1,012,073 $1,189,479 $1,257,142 $1,332,087 $1,330,766


Tenant Improvements $152,591 $126,030 $31,396 $25,882 $13,268 $126,809 $169,003 $121,970 $43,932 $26,966

Leasing Commissions 152,949 127,896 25,699 37,437 17,460 144,501 213,891 153,569 63,544 36,996

Capital Reserve 87,212 89,828 92,523 95,299 98,158 101,103 104,136 107,260 110,477 113,792

TOTAL LEASING & CAPITAL COSTS $392,752 $343,754 $149,618 $158,618 $128,886 $372,413 $487,030 $382,799 $217,953 $177,754

CASH FLOW BEFORE DEBT SERVICE $552,060 $814,827 $993,102 $935,118 $982,541 $639,660 $702,449 $874,343 $1,114,134 $1,153,012

& TAXES

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Total PSF %

$6,300,139 $10.84 54.7%

5,216,658 8.97 45.3%





65


Valuation Term 10 YearsYear 11 NOI $1,307,275





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9.50% 9.75% 10.00% 10.25% 10.50%

7.50% $12,372 $12,152 $11,937 $11,727 $11,521

(21.28) (20.90) (20.53) (20.17) (19.82)

7.75% $12,145 $11,930 $11,720 $11,515 $11,314

(20.89) (20.52) (20.16) (19.80) (19.46)

8.00% $11,932 $11,722 $11,517 $11,316 $11,120

(20.52) (20.16) (19.81) (19.46) (19.13)

8.25% $11,732 $11,527 $11,326 $11,129 $10,937

(20.18) (19.83) (19.48) (19.14) (18.81)8.50% $11,544 $11,343 $11,146 $10,954 $10,766

(19.86) (19.51) (19.17) (18.84) (18.52)

Discount Rate

TerminalCapRate




5.75% $566,196 1.67 7.00% $13,497,000 55.6%

6.25% $593,702 1.59 7.50% $12,597,000 59.5%

6.75% $621,820 1.52 8.00% $11,810,000 63.5%

7.25% $650,526 1.45 8.50% $11,115,000 67.5%

7.75% $679,796 1.39 9.00% $10,498,000 71.4%

Interpretation:The above table shows that this property has high Debt Service Coverage Ratios and low Loan To Value values. This

means that the default risk of the borrower is very low.

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TENANT SUITE

Freedom Justice & Hope 314 2,867Optimal Therapy Associa 339 83Bradford Exploration, I 345 1,430Optimal Therapy Associa 355 3,420Erie County Bd of Elect 360 23,000Mill-Lane Inc. 410 1,210Catholic Charities 412 1,370Diane Delfino 414a 229Glass Roots 430 2,600McMahon & Mann Cons. 432 3,586

Petrozzi Fine Arts. 433 700Great Arrow Graphics 457 12,834Great Arrow Graphics 457a 2,542McMahon & Mann Cons. 498 138Buffalo Arts Studio 500 15,850Nickel City Productions 516 1,400Board of Education 524 9,300Optimal Therapy Associa 532 2,480Semour H. Knox 547 1,055Buffalo Arts Studio 553 1,085Louis P. Jacobs 414 578Gardners Pick of Crop 425 886Buffalo Inner City Ball 351 4,333Resource Planning Assoc 343 2,800Stephanie Costner 466 1,170Cardoso, Lenz, Toomey 557 1,037Keller/Grace/Manias 311 1,534Commonwealth Cultural 448 1,780The Buffalo Fine Arts A 333 6,716Rollers Inc. 359 7,300

Advanced Educational 230 2,240TOTAL 170,827 45,376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Sep-2013 Sep-2014 Sep-2015Sep-2009 Sep-2010 Sep-2011 Sep-2012For the Years Ending Sep-2006 Sep-2007 Sep-2008

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Fig.5.5 Lease Expiration Chart


0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

0.0%7.8%

29.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Year % of NRA % of NRA Expiring CumulativeSep-2006 2006 2006 29.4% 29.4%Sep-2007 2007 2007 7.8% 37.2%Sep-2008 2008 2008 0.0% 37.2%Sep-2009 2009 2009 0.0% 37.2%Sep-2010 2010 2010 0.0% 37.2%Sep-2011 2011 2011 0.0% 37.2%

Sep-2012 2012 2012 0.0% 37.2%Sep-2013 2013 2013 0.0% 37.2%Sep-2014 2014 2014 0.0% 37.2%Sep-2015 2015 2015 0.0% 37.2% Interpretation:

The above chart shows that at the end of 10 years only 37.2 % of the Net Rentable Area gets

rolled over first the first time. This means that the rollover risk is low.

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Tenant Suite No. SF % of Total Rent/SF Annual of AnnualSF Income Income

Credit TenantsThe Board of Education 0100 34,102 5.9% $3.4

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