Kanban for Portfolio Management

75
Kanban for Portfolio Management Gaetano Mazzanti @mgaewsj Agile42

description

slides for my presentation at OSS4B 2013

Transcript of Kanban for Portfolio Management

Page 1: Kanban for Portfolio Management

Kanban for���Portfolio Management

Gaetano Mazzanti @mgaewsj

Agile42

Page 2: Kanban for Portfolio Management

sounds familiar?

“too many things to do” “slipping schedule”

“continuous resource reallocation, multitasking”

“too slow to react”

Page 3: Kanban for Portfolio Management

demand

capacity

Page 4: Kanban for Portfolio Management

the illusion of predictability

delays

defects plan

uncertainty emerging knowledge

impediments

more detailed planning rigid change management

additional overhead

Page 5: Kanban for Portfolio Management

welcome to uncertainty

Page 6: Kanban for Portfolio Management

Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is the centralized management of processes, methods, and technologies used by project managers and Project Management Offices (PMOs) to analyze and collectively manage a group of current or proposed projects based on numerous key characteristics. The objectives of PPM are to determine the optimal resource mix for delivery and to schedule activities to best achieve an organization’s operational and financial goals ― while honouring constraints imposed by customers, strategic objectives, or external real-world factors.

wikipedia

Page 7: Kanban for Portfolio Management

traditional portfolio tenets

Governance

Compliance

Control

PMO (budget administration, staffing, auditing)

Page 8: Kanban for Portfolio Management

traditional portfolio “pillars”

Top-down

Centralized Annual Budget

Detailed Planning

Fixed date, fixed cost, fixed scope���(fixed fate L)

Cumbersome electronic tools

starting vs finishing

people as “resources”

full capacity allocation

PUSH!

Page 9: Kanban for Portfolio Management

we love Excel!

Page 10: Kanban for Portfolio Management

rebooting teams

project “completed”: ���reboot the team and…���

start again L ouch!

teams are rebooted, project to project, putting together different people each time and expecting to have predictable outcomes

Tuckman model of team development

Page 11: Kanban for Portfolio Management

On time, On Budget & Conformant to Specs

oops!

how is success measured

Page 12: Kanban for Portfolio Management

inspired by Joakim Sunden

Page 13: Kanban for Portfolio Management

What is Lean Kanban?

The Kanban method is an���evolutionary approach to change

Page 14: Kanban for Portfolio Management

Lean

add value without generating waste

Page 15: Kanban for Portfolio Management

muri, mura, muda

Page 16: Kanban for Portfolio Management

principles of the���Kanban method

start with what you do now

agree to pursue incremental, evolutionary change

respect the current process, roles, responsibilities & titles

encourage acts of leadership at all levels in your organization – from individual contributor to senior management

Page 17: Kanban for Portfolio Management

Kanban���six core practices

visualize ���limit WIP���manage flow ���make process policies explicit���implement feedback loops���improve collaboratively, evolve experimentally

Page 18: Kanban for Portfolio Management

if you can’t see it���you can’t manage it

Page 19: Kanban for Portfolio Management

Visualize

Knowledge work is invisible. If you can’t see something, it is (almost) impossible to manage it.

Collaborative process improvement is almost impossible if work and workflow are invisible and if process policies are not explicit.

David J Anderson

Page 20: Kanban for Portfolio Management

a Kanban board

visualize to understand the process

how the process works and fails to work for you and your customers

how it can be changed

Page 21: Kanban for Portfolio Management

expose dysfunctions

Page 22: Kanban for Portfolio Management

Limit WIP

Page 23: Kanban for Portfolio Management

balancing���demand & capacity

demand

capacity

no matter how good you are at filtering���capacity is always full (and more)

Page 24: Kanban for Portfolio Management

# of items in system (WIP)

B

C D F

E

A

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

G

H

I

# of items in a specific state = 2

# of items in���specific area = 4

total # of���items = 9

Page 25: Kanban for Portfolio Management

limiting WIP

fewer commitments

more options

finishing stuff-> stop starting start finishing

Page 26: Kanban for Portfolio Management

100% utilization myth idle work

vs

idle workers

efficiency (doing things right)

vs

effectiveness (doing the right things)

Page 27: Kanban for Portfolio Management

multitasking sucks

it’s easier to start than it is to finish

Page 28: Kanban for Portfolio Management

multitasking sucks

visualphotos.com

123456

YOUR MULTITASKING ���IS MY BOTTLENECK

Jim Benson

12

34

56

Page 29: Kanban for Portfolio Management

let work flow let work flow

Page 30: Kanban for Portfolio Management

visualize flow

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

B C

D

F E

A

Page 31: Kanban for Portfolio Management

visualize flow

B

C

D

F E

A

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

Page 32: Kanban for Portfolio Management

highlight issues

B

C

D

F E

A

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

!

!

Page 33: Kanban for Portfolio Management

measure flow

B

C D F

E

A

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

G

H

I

Page 34: Kanban for Portfolio Management

cycle time

= WIP / throughput

(throughput = average completion rate)

Little’s Law

Page 35: Kanban for Portfolio Management

flow = speed * density

Page 36: Kanban for Portfolio Management

slack (%) absorb variations

% capacity utilization

queue size

queue size grows

exponentially at high capacity 0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   80   90   100  

Page 37: Kanban for Portfolio Management

make process policies explicit (i.e. definition of done, WIP limits, pairing reviews, test automation, …) implement feedback loops (i.e. standups, retrospectives, operation reviews, metrics, …) improve collaboratively, evolve experimentally (using models and the scientific method)

Page 38: Kanban for Portfolio Management

Lean Agile Portfolio traits

Value driven

WIP limited

Decentralized, adaptive

Empirical, Probabilistic (statistical data support)

Lightweight business case/specs

Lightweight estimation

Physical Boards

Traditional Portolio Management

Centralized Annual Budget

Detailed Planning

Fixed date, fixed cost, fixed scope���(fixed fate L)

Compliance driven, top-down approach

Cumbersome electronic tools

Page 39: Kanban for Portfolio Management

Kanban board design Ideas

ooBiz Case Tech

Assessment15-30 5-12

Committed5

In Progress5

Verification5

RejectedCommitment

Point

Busines

s

R&D

source David J Anderson

Page 40: Kanban for Portfolio Management

Kanban board designs

source Pawel Brodzinski

Page 41: Kanban for Portfolio Management

demand analysis

where does work come from?

how is value assigned (and verified) to initiatives?

is arrival rate predictable? (usually not)

Ideasoo

Biz Case TechAssessment

15-30 5-12Committed

5In Progress

5Verification

5

RejectedCommitment

Point

Busines

s

R&D

Page 42: Kanban for Portfolio Management

work item types

standard

fixed date

urgent/emergency

intangible

small

medium

large

growth

maintenance

innovation

Page 43: Kanban for Portfolio Management

the magic of visualizing

waiting for approval initial design,

planning, outsourcing,

mold design, etc.

demand

capacity

Page 44: Kanban for Portfolio Management

one week later

Page 45: Kanban for Portfolio Management

a new board

color = team

Page 46: Kanban for Portfolio Management

46  

flow

Page 47: Kanban for Portfolio Management

(bad) flow

Z Z ZZ Z

Z Z ZZ Z

Z Z ZZ Z

Page 48: Kanban for Portfolio Management

bottlenecks

B

C D F

E

A

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

G

H

I

gate

J

K

Page 49: Kanban for Portfolio Management

bottlenecks

B

C

D

F

E

A

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

G H

I

gate

J

K L

Page 50: Kanban for Portfolio Management

bottlenecks

B

C

D

F

E

A

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

G H

I J

K

L

gate

items queueing up

empty area

Page 51: Kanban for Portfolio Management

limit WIP

by # of initiatives (size matters)

by size

by team capacity

by space available

by conversation

Page 52: Kanban for Portfolio Management

limit WIP by���team capacity / space available

mar apr may jun jul aug sep

TeamA

TeamB

TeamC

TeamD

TeamE

Page 53: Kanban for Portfolio Management

once again: ���complexity and uncertainty are

intrinsic to knowledge work

we must be able to���react to unfolding events and���adapt to changing circumstances

David J Anderson

Page 54: Kanban for Portfolio Management

but… we hate uncertainty

we prefer to take a decision now

even if it risks being wrong

i.e. annual budget (we remove options, we increase risks)

Page 55: Kanban for Portfolio Management

decision making in uncertainty

balance:

risk/return

maintenance/growth

short term/long term

etc.

Page 56: Kanban for Portfolio Management

selection

what to do next?

what to finish next?

Page 57: Kanban for Portfolio Management

last responsible moment selection

Discoverwhat to do

Do It Validate Outcome

Reject Commitment

keep your options open

pull

Page 58: Kanban for Portfolio Management

selecting/pulling���a project

do first

do next

do soon /���re-evaluate

do sometime or reject

fit with goals

timeliness (urgency, ���

Cost of Delay, ���fit with strategy)

source GDS select what you don’t do

Page 59: Kanban for Portfolio Management

what about���specs & estimations?

what if you have 50 candidate initiatives and only 15 can be done?

what’s the point (cost) of specifying and estimating all 50?

precision is worthless

guesstimation -> range + historical data

check and adapt

Page 60: Kanban for Portfolio Management

when starting a project

we simply need a rough idea of size and���an understanding of (un)certainty

Page 61: Kanban for Portfolio Management

which parameters should you consider to select what to do next

ROI, IRR, NPV, etc. ?

Do you know your Cost of Delay???

ROI Cost of Delay���

(1 month)

Project A 25% 5k

Project B 15% 30k

which one would you select next? example credit: Kenny Rubin

Page 62: Kanban for Portfolio Management

cost of delay &���classes of service

cost

time

cost

time

cost

time

Page 63: Kanban for Portfolio Management

classes of service and WIP standard work = 60%

urgent = 10%

due date = 20%

maintenance = 10%

Page 64: Kanban for Portfolio Management

classes of service, WIP, expedite lane

D

H

J I

F B

A E C

6

M L K 2

1

1

O

Q

N

P

EXPEDITE LANE

G

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

Page 65: Kanban for Portfolio Management

metrics?

try

measure learn

goal

measure learn

as a learning loop

Page 66: Kanban for Portfolio Management

control chart

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

average cycletime

UCL

LCL

cycle time

knowledge work has high variability

time!

Page 67: Kanban for Portfolio Management

CFD���Cumulative Flow Diagram

Page 68: Kanban for Portfolio Management

monitoring progress 90% complete

remaining 10% could take forever

is usually meaningless

90% of what?

Page 69: Kanban for Portfolio Management

burn-up chart

time

outcome

Page 70: Kanban for Portfolio Management

enough…

Page 71: Kanban for Portfolio Management

Lean Agile Portfolio traits

Value driven

WIP limited

Decentralized, adaptive

Empirical, Probabilistic (statistical data support)

Lightweight business case/specs

Lightweight estimation

Physical Boards

Traditional Portolio Management

Centralized Annual Budget

Detailed Planning

Fixed date, fixed cost, fixed scope���(fixed fate L)

Compliance driven, top-down approach

Cumbersome electronic tools

Page 72: Kanban for Portfolio Management

Portfolio Kanban���is more about���

changing/transforming the organization���than about���

stickies on a board

Mike Burrows

Page 73: Kanban for Portfolio Management

no change disruptive change

Kanban

Page 74: Kanban for Portfolio Management

inspired by the works of many, including���Mike Burrows, Pawel Brodzinski and David J Anderson

Kanban

learn from the people plan with the people begin with what they have build on what they know

Lao-Tzu

Page 75: Kanban for Portfolio Management

Gaetano Mazzanti

@mgaewsj

[email protected]

Agile42

Kanban