k 7 4 s 0 e Pakistan Weekly Update...
Transcript of k 7 4 s 0 e Pakistan Weekly Update...
AKD Research [email protected]
+92-21-111-253-111
Weekly Review
The benchmark index went downhill in four of the five trading sessions, resultantly closing
the week at 41,742pts, down 1.99%WoW. Fearing gas price hike and its spillover effects on
industries, investor sentiments had turned negative even before the ECC meeting. An incon-
clusive outcome with regards to fertilizer inventories, circular debt clearance and postpone-
ment of gas price hike led to further selling in the mainboard sectors, ramping the index
down for rest of the week. Volumes however improved 19.1%WoW during the outgoing
week to daily average of 177.48mn shares, where volume leaders included 1) EPCL
(53.97mn shares), 2) NRSL (51.23mn shares), 3) AGL (43.86mn shares), 4) STPL (42.38mn
shares) and 5) UNITY (42.23mn shares). Other news highlights for the week included: 1)
World Bank delegation emphasizing that Pakistan needs to focus on private sector policies
for a longer time horizon to encourage private investors, while committing an indicative
financing of US$11bn in CAS’ 2014-19, 2) Moody’s identifying Pakistan as a country most
vulnerable to US$ appreciation, 3) Pakistan’s budget deficit widening to PkR2.26trn or 6.6%
of GDP in FY18, 4) Federal Cabinet setting up six committees to introduce reforms in differ-
ent sectors and to carve out a new province from Punjab and 5) recent data from EAD show-
ing that Pakistan has received US$439mn loans from various international lenders in Jul’18.
Performance leaders from AKD universe during the week were: 1) HASCOL (+3.16%WoW),
2) FFBL (+2.88%WoW), 3) NBP (+2.29%WoW) and 4) BAFL (+1.82%WoW); while laggards
included: 1) MLCF (-9.14%WoW), 2) CHCC (-9.06%WoW), 3) PIOC (-8.14%WoW), 4) LUCK (-
6.43%WoW) and 5) FFC (-5.97%WoW). Foreigners continued to offload their stake in do-
mestic equities with net outflow of US$10.0mn in the outgoing week.
StockSmart
AKD Equity Research / Pakistan
Pakistan Weekly Update
Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Important disclosures
Copyright©2018 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.
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Policy focus particularly macro-economic framework ushered by PTI led set-up is the most important determinant of the market direction, in our view. In this regard, we look forward to the next ECC meeting (scheduled in the mid of week) where pending decisions on key areas (i.e. gas pricing and circular debt) would impact market accordingly. Moreover, a visit from US delegation led by Secretary of the State Mike Pompeo is of key strategic im-portance, where positive developments could improve investors’ confidence.
31 August 2018
Outlook
Index & Volume Chart
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Universe Gainers & Losers
42,746
42,544
42,249
41,864
41,742
41,200
41,400
41,600
41,800
42,000
42,200
42,400
42,600
42,800
43,000
-
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
180,000
210,000
27-Aug 28-Aug 29-Aug 30-Aug 31-Aug
(Index)(Shrs'000)
Ready Volume (LHS) KSE100 Index (RHS)
Top- 5 Volume Le a de rs
Symbol Volume (mn)
EPCL : 53.97
NRSL : 51.23
AGL : 43.86
STPL : 42.38
UNITY : 42.23
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Indices KSE-100 KSE-30
This w eek 41,742 20,491
Last w eek 42,588 21,012
Indices KMI-30 Allshare
This w eek 70,817 30,654
Last w eek 72,970 30,890
Mkt Cap. PkRbn US$bn
This w eek 8,678 69.85
Last w eek 8,753 70.45
Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)
This w eek 177.48
Last w eek 149.02
Change 19.10%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
HA
SCO
L
FFB
L
NB
P
BA
FL
APL
FFC
LUC
K
PIO
C
CH
CC
MLC
F
37,000
39,000
41,000
43,000
45,000
47,000
0
55
110
165
220
275
330
385
440
495
Aug
-17
Oct
-17
Nov-1
7
Dec-1
7
Feb-1
8
Mar-
18
Apr-
18
May-
18
Jul-18
Aug
-18
(Index)(share mn)
Volume (LHS) KSE-100 Index
AKD Securities Limited
31 August 2018
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
This Week’s Daily Reports
2
Aug 30, 2018
Pakistan Economy: Aug'18 CPI preview losing steam, (AKD Daily, Aug 31, 2018)
Breaking its monthly upward momentum, headline inflation for Aug'18 is expected to hover at the same levels as of last month, likely to be recorded at 5.86%YoY (vs. 5.83%/3.42%YoY
in Jul'18/Aug'17). On MoM basis, CPI index is expected to rise 0.22% vs. 0.94%MoM in Jul'18. Key contributor is anticipated to be the decline in oil prices (in the previous month)
by way of reduced sales tax, likely to pull down transportation index down 0.3%MoM. Addi-tionally, uptick in perishable food prices should be countered by seasonal fall in chicken and
fruits prices to restrict food index, rising only 0.42%MoM (vs. 0.63%MoM in Jul'18). That
said, keeping in view higher international oil prices and FX swings, inflationary pressures are likely to persist, where we estimate CPI to average out to 6.8%YoY in FY19F. However sea-
sonal dip in perishable food prices in winters is likely to set tone for CPI readings in 2HFY19. While the stance of new setup with regards to its willingness to push monetary policy to
counter inflation remains uncertain, an upward interest rate profile seems incontrovertible. In this backdrop, another +175bps hike remains on the table in FY19 with TR/DR ending at
9.25%/9.75%.
Pakistan Economy: Fiscal tweaks pose challenges, (AKD Daily, Aug 30, 2018)
Amongst the key challenges facing the newly formed government is an escalating fiscal defi-cit (6.6% of GDP for FY18 vs. 5.8% in FY17 – marking the highest ever quantum PkR2.26trn).
Riding on the populist wave of an election year, spillovers in provincial deficits (PkR22.4bn
deficit vs. budgeted surplus of PkR274bn) along with slippages in non-tax revenue (down 21%YoY) paved the way for a massive breach of the GoP's revised target of 5.6% of GDP. For
the PTI's economic policy set-up, enacting fiscal consolidation measures with the priorities of enhancing the tax base (currently less than 1%), while enacting austerity measures, limit-
ing subsidies and reviving sick units serve as key tenets to cut back on expenditures. Even so, burdened by inevitable debt servicing (PkR1.7trn in FY19) as well as defense spending
(PkR1.1trn), we maintain our fiscal deficit outlook (estimated at 5.4% of GDP vs. GoP target
of 4.9%). We highlight possible constraints on development spending as a clear detriment to foreseeable growth prospects, posing headwinds (for construction and allied industries).
PAEL: Power division remains a pain in 1HCY18, (AKD Daily, Aug 29, 2018)
Management of PAEL conducted an analyst briefing going over 1HCY18 operational parame-ters, coupled with guidance on CY18 results and outlook for additional business lines. Key
highlights were: 1) the company has issued gross sales guidance aiming to reach topline of
PkR44.95bn (+6%YoY) where tepid growth results from both segments undergoing height-ened competition, 2) power division continuing to lag, expected to constitute 32% of Gross
sales for CY18 arising from a slowdown in power transformer/energy meter/switchgear business revenues to punch through 2/3/6%YoY growth, and 3) incremental CAPEX to initi-
ate additional business lines in the appliances business, where PEL intends on expanding its brand to the mid-tier LED and washing machine segments. We retain a BUY stance on the
stock where at present levels the stock trades at CY18/19F P/E of 5.9/4.9x.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Strong Jul'18 draws inventory to 7yr low, (AKD Daily, Aug 28, 2018)
Pakistan's fertilizer offtake remained promising in Jul'18, courtesy of early monsoon rains that came to the rescue spurring a delayed lift-off for Kharif season demand amid water
scarcity. According to the latest NFDC read, total fertilizer sales in Jul'18 stood at 980k tons
against 746k tons sold in Jul'17 (up 31%YoY/12%MoM). In tandem, Urea/DAP offtakes have increased by 46%/7%YoY to 497/302k tons during the month under review. Similarly, CAN/
NP sales have also jumped by 83%/16%YoY to 99/56k tons in Jul'18. On a cumulative basis, total fertilizer sales posted nominal growth of 4%YoY to 5.06mn tons during 7MCY18 where
urea offtake climbed 6%YoY to stand at 3.22mn tons. Backed by continuous improvements in industry dynamics, the fertilizer sector has gained 21%CYTD, outperforming the KSE-100
index by +13% during FY18. With this impressive run-up in the backdrop, we assert a Market
-weight stance on the sector, where EFERT (TP of PkR87.8/sh) remains our top pick on an appealing dividend yield of ~11%, followed by FATIMA (TP of PkR45.1/sh).
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Aug 29, 2018
Aug 31, 2018
Aug 27, 2018
Aug 28, 2018
41,550
41,600
41,650
41,700
41,750
41,800
41,850
41,900
41,950
42,000
42,050
9:1
5
9:3
8
10:0
2
10:2
5
10:4
9
11:1
2
11:3
6
11:5
9
12:2
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12:4
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13:0
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13:3
3
13:5
6
14:2
0
14:4
3
15:0
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15:3
0
15:5
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16:1
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41,600
41,700
41,800
41,900
42,000
42,100
42,200
42,300
9:3
0
9:5
3
10:1
7
10:4
0
11:0
4
11:2
7
11:5
1
12:1
4
12:3
8
13:0
1
13:2
5
13:4
8
14:1
2
14:3
5
14:5
9
15:2
2
42,100
42,159
42,218
42,277
42,336
42,395
42,454
42,513
42,572
42,631
9:3
0
9:5
3
10:1
7
10:4
0
11:0
3
11:2
7
11:5
0
12:1
4
12:3
7
13:0
1
13:2
4
13:4
8
14:1
1
14:3
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15:2
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42,500
42,550
42,600
42,650
42,700
42,750
42,800
42,850
9:3
0
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0
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9
11:3
4
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9
12:2
4
12:4
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13:1
3
13:3
7
14:0
2
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7
14:5
1
15:1
6
42,590
42,630
42,670
42,710
42,750
42,790
42,830
42,870
42,910
9:3
0
9:5
5
10:2
0
10:4
4
11:0
9
11:3
4
11:5
8
12:2
3
12:4
8
13:1
3
13:3
7
14:0
2
14:2
7
14:5
1
15:1
6
AKD Securities Limited
31 August 2018
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
This Week’s Daily Reports
3
Pakistan Textiles: Sector update Jul'18, (AKD Daily, Aug 27, 2018)
Latest PBS data shows that country's export sector is facing headwinds from seasonal slow-down and softening commodity prices in international markets, with Jul'18 exports resting
at US$1.646bn (marginally up by 1.2%YoY). Amongst the major categories, food exports
were up 6.1%YoY to US$266mn (declining 16.3%MoM), while textile exports went down both on sequential and year-on-year basis, with group exports clocking in at US$1,002mn
(down 16.1%MoM/0.5%YoY). In the Textile group, double digit sequential decline in both value (16.0%MoM) and low value added (16.4%MoM) exports was primarily attributable to
softening final product prices and seasonal slowdown. On a cumulative basis, 7MCY18 tex-tile exports moved 8.1%YoY higher at US$7.90bn (vs. US$7.31bn in 7MCY17), while value
added exports inched up by 7.8%YoY to US$5.76bn. Low value added exports, which re-
mained largely sanguine in the 2HCY17, strongly recovered in 1HCY18 reaching US$2.13bn (up 9.7%YoY) in 7MCY18. Moving forward, we expect textile sector to benefit from flexible
exchange rate regime and continued gov't support in the form of export incentives. Howev-er, key structural challenges in the form of slow materialization of export package and ongo-
ing trade spat between global economic powers pose downside risk to export outlook.
AKD Securities Limited
31 August 2018
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
4
Commodities
International Major Currencies
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Major World Indices’ Performance
Source: Bloomberg
TRJ-CRB Index
Source: Bloomberg
PkR/US$ Trend
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Valuations (2018)
Source: AKD Research & Bloomberg
103.0
106.0
109.0
112.0
115.0
118.0
121.0
124.0
127.0
130.0
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct-17
Nov-
17
Dec-
17
Jan-1
8
Feb
-18
Mar-
18
May-
18
Jun-1
8
Jul-18
Aug-1
8
SPOT Units 31-Aug-18 24-Aug-18 WoW CYTD
TRJ-CRB Points 192.8049 192.0795 0.38% -0.55%
Nymex (WTI) US$/bbl. 69.77 68.72 1.53% 15.48%
ICE Brent US$/bbl. 77.09 75.01 2.77% 15.37%
N. Gas Henry Hub US$/Mmbtu 2.95 2.99 -1.34% -16.66%
Cotton USd/Pound 92.65 91.4 1.37% 3.40%
Gold US$/Tr.Oz 1203.79 1205.9 -0.17% -7.62%
Sliver US$/Tr.Oz 14.6012 14.815 -1.44% -13.81%
Copper US$/MT 6062.5 6091.5 -0.48% -15.88%
Platinum US$/Oz 795.68 791.5 0.53% -14.49%
Coal US$/MT 99.6 99.45 0.15% 4.62%
SPOT 31-Aug-18 24-Aug-18 Chg +/- WoW CYTD
Dollar Index 94.783 95.146 -0.363 -0.38% 2.89%
USD/PkR 124.249 124.225 0.024 0.02% 12.49%
USD/JPY 110.860 111.240 -0.380 -0.34% -1.62%
EUR/USD 1.165 1.162 0.003 0.25% -2.95%
GBP/USD 1.298 1.285 0.014 1.05% -3.94%
AUD/USD 0.723 0.733 -0.010 -1.41% -7.47%
NZD/USD 0.663 0.667 -0.004 -0.54% -6.54%
CHF/USD 0.968 0.984 -0.015 -1.57% -0.64%
CAD/USD 1.300 1.303 -0.002 -0.17% 3.44%
USD/KRW 1,113 1,119 -6.100 -0.55% 3.95%
CNY/USD 6.838 6.811 0.027 0.40% 5.08%
Country Bloomberg Code 31-Aug-18 24-Aug-18 WoW CYTD
Pakistan KSE100 Index 41,721 42,588 -2.04% 3.1%
Srilanka CSEALL Index 6,080 6,053 0.46% -4.5%
Thailand SET Index 1,722 1,704 1.04% -1.8%
Indonesia JCI Index 6,018 5,969 0.83% -5.3%
Malaysia FBMKLCI Index 1,820 1,809 0.61% 1.3%
Philippines PCOMP Index 7,856 7,766 1.15% -8.2%
Vietnam VNINDEX Index 990 987 0.25% 0.5%
Hong Kong HSI Index 27,889 27,672 0.78% -6.8%
Singapore FSSTI Index 3,213 3,213 0.01% -5.6%
Brazil IBX Index 31,465 31,382 0.26% -0.5%
Russia RTSSTD Index 15,533 15,169 2.40% 13.6%
India SENSEX Index 38,645 38,252 1.03% 13.5%
S&P SPX Index 2,901 2,875 0.92% 8.5%
DJIA INDU Index 25,987 25,790 0.76% 5.1%
UK UKX Index 7,485 7,577 -1.23% -2.6%
Germany DAX Index 12,395 12,395 0.00% -4.0%
Qatar DSM Index 9,886 9,448 4.64% 16.0%
Abu Dhabi ADSMI Index 4,987 4,885 2.09% 13.4%
Dubai DFMGI Index 2,840 2,816 0.87% -15.7%
Kuwait KWSEIDX Index 6,633 6,633 0.00% 3.5%
Oman MSM30 Index 4,419 4,390 0.66% -12.4%
Saudi Arabia SASEIDX Index 7,948 7,867 1.03% 9.9%
MSCI EM MXEF Index 1,058 1,050 0.73% -8.7%
MSCI FM MXFM Index 536 551 -2.80% -15.9%
EPS Growth PE(x)
Pakistan 20.38% 7.14
Indonesia 10.12% 14.49
Malaysia 12.95% 13.79
Philippines 7.90% 16.36
Vitenam 13.10% 16.11
India 19.95% 17.21
China 13.53% 9.60
% ROE Divd Yld
Pakistan 16.0% 6.87
Indonesia 15.24 2.51
Malaysia 10.45 3.28
Philippines 11.69 1.76
Vitenam 19.27 1.59
India 15.26 1.60
China 12.38 3.22
175
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5
AKD Securities Limited
31 August 2018
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Chart Bank
FIPI Flows for the week
Advance to Decline Ratio
AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index
LIPI Flows for the week
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential
KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Au
g-1
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-17
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-18
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KSE100 MSCI EM
MSCI FM
(666)
(1,868)
(3,804)
(3,032)
(631)
(4,000)
(3,500)
(3,000)
(2,500)
(2,000)
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(500)
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27-Aug-18 28-Aug-18 29-Aug-18 30-Aug-18 31-Aug-18
(US$'000)
-1.70
-1.30
-0.90
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1.10
Au
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Au
g-18
(%)
Ind., 0.76
Co., 0.96
Bank/DFI, 0.06
NBFC, (1.00)
M.Funds, (0.12)
Ins, 8.38
Others, 1.43
Prop. Trading , (0.48) (2.00)
-
2.00
4.00
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0.60
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0.90
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1.10
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Sep-1
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-32%
-27%
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-7%
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3%
Au
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r-1
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-18
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-18
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Au
g-1
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KSE-All Share Index AKD Universe
6
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Market PER Chart 2018
Source: AKD Research
Market P/BVS Chart 2018
Source: AKD Research
31 August 2018
Jul-
07
Ma
r-08
De
c-08
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14.0
10.5
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3.5
(x)
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r-08
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-17
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Au
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2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
(x)
31-Aug-18 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
EPS (PkR) 7.59 7.21 8.11 9.39 11.52
EPS chg (%) (0.50) (4.91) 12.38 15.77 22.72
EPS chg (%) ex-E&P 19.21 (15.73) 8.76 8.97 36.45
Book Value per Share (PkR) 43.02 46.52 51.43 56.37 62.79
Payout (%) 49.14 47.88 51.06 51.95 44.80
Valuations
Price to Earnings (x) 8.83 9.28 8.26 7.14 5.81
PER (ex-E&P) (x) 7.25 8.61 7.91 7.26 5.32
Price to Book (x) 1.56 1.44 1.30 1.19 1.07
Price to CF (x) 10.82 12.57 8.67 8.58 7.03
Earnings Yield (%) 11.33 10.77 12.11 14.02 17.20
Dividend Yield (%) 5.57 5.16 6.18 7.28 7.70
EV / EBITDA (x) 5.77 5.91 5.56 4.91 4.39
Profitability
Return on Equity (%) 17.64 15.51 15.76 16.65 18.34
Return on Assets (%) 3.58 2.96 3.22 3.43 3.86
Chg in Sales (%) (14.06) 18.71 11.99 12.01 8.74
Gross Margin (%) 32.87 35.23 35.47 35.79 35.70
Operating Margin (%) 22.03 25.40 26.02 26.61 26.51
Net Margin (%) 15.65 12.53 12.58 13.00 14.67
AKD Universe Valuations
Source: AKD Research
7
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
AKD Universe Active Coverage Cluster’s Valuations
31 August 2018
Source: AKD Research UR Under Review
Stock Symbol Price TP Stance EPS(PkR) PE(x) PB(x) DY(%)
(PkR) (PkR) 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F
Automobile and Parts
Indus Motors INDU 1,513.21 2,191.48 Buy 165.41 188.74 199.71 9.15 8.02 7.58 3.81 3.24 2.79 7.60 7.80 8.26
Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 283.25 610.01 Buy 46.49 44.38 59.03 6.09 6.38 4.80 0.79 0.74 0.67 6.57 6.35 8.47
Cements
DG Khan Cement DGKC 112.76 118.00 Neutral 18.20 18.52 15.10 6.19 6.09 7.47 0.66 0.61 0.59 6.65 6.65 5.32
Lucky Cement LUCK 540.78 666.00 Buy 42.34 39.21 32.51 12.77 13.79 16.63 2.19 2.10 1.95 2.22 2.22 1.85
Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF 52.29 65.00 Buy 8.05 6.39 5.10 6.50 8.18 10.25 1.31 0.96 0.82 6.37 10.84 5.74
Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL 24.62 26.00 Accumulate 1.89 2.03 1.95 13.00 12.11 12.62 1.73 1.60 1.60 3.66 7.11 7.11
Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 46.02 70.00 Buy 12.84 6.96 6.39 3.58 6.61 7.20 0.85 0.80 0.76 11.95 8.15 7.61
Cherat Cement Co Limited CHCC 85.07 88.00 Neutral 11.08 12.58 7.27 7.68 6.76 11.71 1.44 1.28 1.21 3.15 3.53 3.53
Gharibwal Cement Ltd GWLC 20.64 36.00 Buy 5.71 3.32 2.25 3.62 6.22 9.19 0.73 0.68 0.69 14.53 15.75 6.06
Cable & Electrical Goods
Pak Elektron Ltd PAEL 33.99 51.70 Buy 6.65 6.08 7.57 5.11 5.59 4.49 0.63 0.59 0.54 7.94 7.06 8.83
Engineering
Amreli Steels Ltd. ASTL 77.46 117.00 Buy 3.62 4.82 11.17 21.42 16.07 6.93 2.06 1.82 1.50 2.58 2.58 6.45
Fertilizers
Engro Corporation ENGRO 328.96 348.84 Accumulate 20.47 21.56 27.91 16.07 15.26 11.79 2.08 2.05 1.97 6.38 6.08 6.69
Engro Fertilizers Limited EFERT 78.94 87.75 Accumulate 8.35 9.40 10.25 9.45 8.40 7.70 2.48 2.41 2.34 10.77 10.72 11.69
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 41.47 48.10 Accumulate 2.03 2.60 2.79 20.39 15.94 14.86 2.88 2.67 2.48 2.05 5.02 5.38
Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 97.49 104.57 Accumulate 8.42 8.75 10.22 11.58 11.14 9.54 4.23 3.76 3.58 7.18 8.04 9.13
Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 33.71 45.11 Buy 5.06 5.44 6.00 6.66 6.20 5.62 1.30 1.20 1.11 - 11.29 12.46
Food Producers
Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 88.96 84.20 Reduce 0.75 1.19 1.22 118.91 74.50 72.73 3.69 3.49 3.27 - - -
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 152.46 217.00 Buy 14.83 18.53 23.68 10.28 8.23 6.44 1.28 1.16 1.04 3.94 4.26 5.41
Pak Oilfields POL 643.26 676.29 Accumulate 40.46 47.83 73.47 15.90 13.45 8.76 4.83 4.65 4.00 6.22 6.53 9.72
Pakistan Petroleum PPL 208.30 276.00 Buy 18.10 21.62 29.45 11.51 9.64 7.07 1.90 1.71 1.51 4.32 5.04 6.48
Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 302.39 317.69 Accumulate 13.61 17.46 22.39 22.22 17.32 13.51 5.92 5.11 4.42 2.89 3.72 5.21
Attock Petroleum APL 619.92 724.84 Accumulate 63.89 73.88 80.18 9.70 8.39 7.73 3.16 3.02 2.88 6.86 10.49 11.29
Pakistan State Oil PSO 343.58 399.08 Accumulate 55.90 53.54 58.22 6.15 6.42 5.90 1.09 1.01 0.93 6.06 7.86 8.73
Power
Hub Power Co. HUBC 96.39 UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR
K-Electric Co. KEL 5.42 UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR
Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 56.73 64.38 Accumulate 10.73 11.09 10.79 5.29 5.12 5.26 1.54 1.47 1.42 15.95 16.75 16.31
Personal Goods
Nishat Mills NML 135.45 169.10 Buy 12.12 15.48 18.09 11.17 8.75 7.49 0.54 0.52 0.49 3.69 5.17 6.09
Nishat Chunian Ltd. NCL 50.66 57.15 Accumulate 6.75 5.48 7.60 7.51 9.25 6.67 1.01 0.96 0.87 5.43 4.44 5.92
Banks
Allied Bank Limited ABL 105.05 100.69 Neutral 11.29 12.77 14.93 9.31 8.22 7.04 1.13 1.07 1.00 6.66 7.62 8.57
Bank AlFalah BAFL 57.08 55.16 Neutral 5.30 6.39 6.84 10.78 8.93 8.34 1.38 1.26 1.12 2.63 2.63 2.63
Habib Bank Limited HBL 151.03 237.30 Buy 5.54 19.74 23.41 27.25 7.65 6.45 1.17 1.06 0.95 5.30 4.63 9.27
MCB Bank Limited MCB 201.23 253.88 Buy 18.53 18.82 23.30 10.86 10.69 8.64 1.52 1.44 1.38 7.95 7.95 8.45
National Bank of Pakistan NBP 52.34 71.15 Buy 10.97 9.86 10.61 4.77 5.31 4.93 0.62 0.50 0.47 - 10.51 16.24
United Bank Ltd UBL 158.03 253.30 Buy 21.39 16.58 23.62 7.39 9.53 6.69 1.11 1.07 1.02 8.23 8.86 8.86
8
AKD Securities Limited
31 August 2018
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
AKD Universe Coverage Cluster’s Performance
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Stoc ks Symbol Pric e 1 Ye a r 1 Ye a r
3 1- Aug- 18 1M 3 M 6 M 12 M CYTD High Low
KSE- 10 0 Inde x 4 1,7 4 2 .2 4 - 2 .3 - 2 .6 - 3 .5 1.3 3 .1 4 6 ,6 3 7 .6 3 7 ,9 19 .4
Automobile a nd Pa rts
Indus Motors INDU 1513.21 9.4 - 4.2 - 12.0 - 13.3 - 9.9 1941.95 1251.61
Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 283.25 - 17.7 - 38.4 - 40.4 - 36.9 - 43.1 566.60 282.79
Ce me nts
DG Khan Cement DGKC 112.76 - 2.0 - 10.8 - 21.5 - 27.5 - 15.7 171.58 91.54
Lucky Cement LUCK 540.78 - 1.9 - 1.0 - 10.0 - 9.4 4.5 723.19 445.80
Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF 52.29 - 3.4 - 18.8 - 22.5 - 43.2 - 23.6 95.58 39.90
Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL 24.62 1.6 - 2.0 - 1.4 - 28.2 - 1.6 35.21 19.24
Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 46.02 - 9.6 - 10.7 - 29.5 - 53.8 - 27.1 99.54 39.59
Cherat Cement Limited CHCC 85.07 - 8.3 - 24.8 - 32.6 - 39.7 - 23.3 141.15 80.79
Gharibwal Cement Limited GWLC 20.64 - 8.1 - 5.8 - 19.7 - 43.5 - 14.4 37.75 18.38
Engine e ring
Amreli Steel Ltd ASTL 75.02 - 4.4 - 7.4 - 18.6 - 21.7 - 19.0 106.06 54.40
Fe rtilize rs
Dawood Hercules DAWH 113.04 - 3.1 - 6.6 - 6.6 - 5.0 1.0 137.58 99.49
Engro Fertilizers Ltd. EFERT 78.94 - 0.2 6.2 14.1 46.5 16.6 82.36 54.91
Engro Chemical ENGRO 328.96 - 2.7 6.8 9.4 16.0 19.7 350.22 253.43
Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 33.71 - 3.7 18.4 8.7 17.9 9.2 35.90 26.83
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 41.47 4.9 5.1 14.1 23.7 16.7 44.81 32.30
Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 97.49 - 2.1 - 0.8 9.9 37.6 23.2 103.68 70.86
Food Produc e rs
Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 88.96 - 2.6 - 7.5 1.4 3.3 10.8 105.73 70.19
Ca ble & Ele c tric a l Goods
Pak Elektron Limited PAEL 33.99 - 11.3 - 11.7 - 30.4 - 53.7 - 28.4 77.97 31.82
Oil & Ga s
Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 152.46 0.8 - 6.1 - 6.6 8.1 - 6.3 177.31 141.10
Pak Oilfields POL 643.26 - 2.9 - 5.2 3.0 33.9 8.2 707.34 462.18
Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. PPL 208.30 - 2.5 - 2.8 2.2 26.1 1.2 222.96 165.15
Pakistan State Oil PSO 343.58 5.4 7.5 15.4 - 18.2 17.2 459.31 265.17
Attock Petroleum Ltd. APL 619.92 11.7 3.4 9.8 - 2.4 18.5 644.75 490.02
Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 302.39 - 1.7 - 1.5 11.5 - 4.6 22.4 322.42 211.63
Powe r
Hub Power Co. HUBC 92.38 - 3.7 - 6.5 - 5.8 - 18.3 1.5 117.46 87.19
K- Electric Limited KEL 5.31 - 1.3 - 10.6 - 14.5 - 12.7 - 15.8 7.11 5.14
Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 56.73 0.4 - 3.1 - 5.1 - 22.1 5.3 77.44 49.39
Pe rsona l Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd. NCL 50.66 - 0.9 0.2 2.2 - 3.0 10.7 62.35 43.70
Nishat Mills NML 135.45 - 1.9 - 6.5 - 15.1 - 5.2 - 9.4 171.56 126.05
Ba nks
Allied Bank Limited ABL 105.05 - 1.3 8.2 14.2 20.9 23.6 109.95 76.72
Bank AlFalah BAFL 57.08 0.4 8.3 20.6 42.1 34.3 58.94 38.15
Habib Bank Limited HBL 151.03 - 15.0 - 11.8 - 27.5 - 15.0 - 9.6 218.99 151.03
MCB Bank Limited MCB 201.23 - 2.9 - 1.4 - 7.9 4.0 - 5.2 236.56 189.90
National Bank of Pakistan NBP 52.34 4.2 5.7 11.8 - 5.7 7.8 60.14 43.01
United Bank Ltd UBL 158.03 - 9.9 - 6.6 - 16.2 - 15.1 - 15.9 215.16 152.57
Absolute Pe rforma nc e (%)
9
AKD Securities Limited
31 August 2018
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Economic Snapshot
Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research
End Month Data Units Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18
Monetary Rates
T-Bills - 3M % 5.99 5.99 5.99 6.21 6.26 6.26 6.24 6.26 6.76
T-Bills - 6M % 6.01 6.01 6.01 n.a n.a n.a 6.35 6.35 6.85
T-Bills - 12M % 5.91 5.91 5.92 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
PIB 10Y % n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
KIBOR 6M % 6.17 6.18 6.21 6.23 6.44 6.51 6.25 6.34 6.73
Discount rate % 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
Policy rate % 5.75 5.75 5.75 6.0 6.0 6.25 6.00 6.00 6.00
Inflation
Headline inflation % 3.8 4.0 4.6 4.4 3.8 3.2 3.7 4.2 5.2
Core inflation % 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.8 7.0 7.0 7.1
Food inflation % 2.2 2.4 3.8 3.7 2.2 0.1 (0.20) 1.0 3.0
External Indicators
Export (PBS) US$ (mn) 1,888 1,974 1,977 1,971 1,902 2,231 2,133 2,144 n.a
Import (PBS) US$ (mn) 4,929 4,898 4,910 5,607 4,797 5,280 5,066 5,814 n.a
Trade Deficit (PBS) US$ (mn) (3,041) (2,924) (2,933) (3,636) -2,895 -3,049 1947 1934 n.a
Export (SBP) 2,380 2,546 2,464 2,111 2,059 2,305 2,246 2,266 n.a
Import (SBP) 5,258 5,346 5,140 4874 4,334 4,943 4,949 5,149 n.a
Trade Deficit (SBP) (2,878) (2,800) (2,676) (2,763) (2,275) (2,638) (2,703) (2,883) n.a
Home Remittances US$ (mn) 1,654 1,577 1,724 1,639 1,672 n.a 1,651 1,771 n.a
Current Account US$ (mn) (1,315) (1,441) (1,256) -1,617 -1,241 1,160 1947 1934 n.a
Banking Sector
Deposits PkR (bn) 11,777 11,969 12,362 12,002 11,933 12,571 12,277 12,258 13,063
Advances PkR (bn) 6,151 6,280 6,530 6,556 6,629 6,812 6,839 7,046 7,362
Investments PkR (bn) 8,342 8,475 8,542 7,637 8,127 6,853 7,784 6,733 8,179
W. A. lending rate % 7.82 7.81 7.74 7.72 7.99 7.60 7.75 7.74 n.a
W. A. deposit rate % 2.91 2.91 2.89 2.89 2.92 2.95 2.91 2.92 n.a
Spread rate % 4.90 4.90 4.85 4.83 5.07 4.65 4.84 4.83 n.a
Public Finance
Tax collection PkR (mn) 541,120 547,902 841,472 546,994 527,652 720,486 n.a n.a n.a
Direct taxes PkR (mn) 270,560 273,951 420,736 273,497 263,826 360,243 n.a n.a n.a
Indirect Taxes PkR (mn) 270,560 273,951 420,736 273,497 263,826 360,243 n.a n.a n.a
Currency
Fx Reserves US$ (mn) 19,584 18,774 20,154 18,957 18,317 17,796 17,540 15,977 16,386
USDPkR - Interbank PkR/USD 105.41 105.44 109.13 110.53 110.55 111.73 115.60 115.61 119.57
10
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
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AKD Research Team
Analyst Tel no. E-mail Coverage
Usman Zahid +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] Executive Director Research
Haris Imtiaz +92 111 253 111 (639) [email protected] Economy
Ali Asghar Poonawala +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] OMCs & Automobiles
Waqas Imdad Ali +92 111 253 111 (634) [email protected] Cements & Fertilizer
M.Daniyal Kanani +92 111 253 111 (602) [email protected] Oil & Gas & Power
Umer Farooq +92 111 253 111 (637) [email protected] Textiles & Steel
Qasim Anwar +92 111 253 111 (680) [email protected] Technical Analysis
Nasir Khan +92 111 253 111 (639) [email protected] Research Production
Tariq Mehmood +92 111 253 111 (643) [email protected] Library Operations
31 August 2018