June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking...

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Relevant Independent Objecve gas resources thought to be previously determined as non-producve or not feasible to produce. These emerging sources of shale and ght gas are, however, changing the dynamics of US supply. As of 2016, the top 10 gas producing states (gas marketed producon) are Texas, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Colorado, Wyoming, Ohio, West Virginia, New Mexico and the Federal Offshore (Gulf of Mexico). The top 10 producers in 1997 were Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Wyoming, Colorado, Alabama, Alaska and California. Currently, the largest producing states coincide with states with high shale gas producon. Low cost, abundant gas from the Marcellus and Uca Shales is already changing energy flows in North America, spilling into the US Northeast, US Midwest and into Central Canada. While its good news for gas producers and supporng industries in Pennsylvania and nearby states, the flood of Marcellus gas is having a profound impact on western Canadian gas, increasingly displaced from the US Northeast and US Midwest, both of which were tradional export markets for western Canadian gas. The impacts of the shale revoluon are dramac and extend beyond producon of shale gas, or ght oil for that maer. Without doubt, the growth of shale gas producon and ght oil producon are impacng Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) producon, gaining the aenon of petrochemical producers, which account for over half of NGL consumpon. Ethane, 3 for example, is used almost exclusively as a petrochemical feedstock to produce ethylene, which in turn can be used as a building block for plascs, packaging materials, and other consumer products, while propane uses range from residenal heang to transportaon fuel for forkliſts, to petrochemical feedstock for ethylene and propylene producon. Figure 2 illustrates US NGLs producon between 2010 and 2016 by PADD. 4 NGLs producon increased from 757,019 thousand barrels in 2010 to 1,272,873 thousand barrels in 2016. This producon is led by PADD III (Gulf June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and New York, is the largest producing shale basin in North America by a wide margin, surpassing the once-prolific and pioneering Barne Shale in January 2012 and the Haynesville Shale in September 2012. And it hasn’t looked back, as illustrated in Figure 1. Figure 1: US Shale Gas Producon Source: EIA 1 As of May 2017, the Marcellus Shale produced 17.8 Bcfpd, accounng for approximately 40 percent of the total shale gas producon in the US. 2 The second largest producing basin in the US is the Permian Basin, producing 4.7 Bcfpd in May 2017, followed by the Uca Shale at 4.2 Bcfpd. Similar to the Marcellus, the laer is also located in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. All three plays are at record-high producon levels, as total US shale gas producon hit a record-high of 44.9 Bcfpd. Not conceivable even a decade ago, advances in horizontal drilling, 3-D seismic technology and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) have had a profound impact on natural gas producon in the Lower-48, opening up shale CERI Commodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial Commiee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan Fogwill About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Instute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objecve economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more informaon about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].

Transcript of June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking...

Page 1: June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and

Relevant • Independent • Objective

gas resources thought to be previously determined as non-productive or not feasible to produce. These emerging sources of shale and tight gas are, however, changing the dynamics of US supply. As of 2016, the top 10 gas producing states (gas marketed production) are Texas, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Colorado, Wyoming, Ohio, West Virginia, New Mexico and the Federal Offshore (Gulf of Mexico). The top 10 producers in 1997 were Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Wyoming, Colorado, Alabama, Alaska and California. Currently, the largest producing states coincide with states with high shale gas production. Low cost, abundant gas from the Marcellus and Utica Shales is already changing energy flows in North America, spilling into the US Northeast, US Midwest and into Central Canada. While its good news for gas producers and supporting industries in Pennsylvania and nearby states, the flood of Marcellus gas is having a profound impact on western Canadian gas, increasingly displaced from the US Northeast and US Midwest, both of which were traditional export markets for western Canadian gas. The impacts of the shale revolution are dramatic and extend beyond production of shale gas, or tight oil for that matter. Without doubt, the growth of shale gas production and tight oil production are impacting Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) production, gaining the attention of petrochemical producers, which account for over half of NGL consumption. Ethane,3 for example, is used almost exclusively as a petrochemical feedstock to produce ethylene, which in turn can be used as a building block for plastics, packaging materials, and other consumer products, while propane uses range from residential heating to transportation fuel for forklifts, to petrochemical feedstock for ethylene and propylene production. Figure 2 illustrates US NGLs production between 2010 and 2016 by PADD.4 NGLs production increased from 757,019 thousand barrels in 2010 to 1,272,873 thousand barrels in 2016. This production is led by PADD III (Gulf

June 2017

CERI Natural Gas Report

Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and New York, is the largest producing shale basin in North America by a wide margin, surpassing the once-prolific and pioneering Barnett Shale in January 2012 and the Haynesville Shale in September 2012. And it hasn’t looked back, as illustrated in Figure 1. Figure 1: US Shale Gas Production

Source: EIA1

As of May 2017, the Marcellus Shale produced 17.8 Bcfpd, accounting for approximately 40 percent of the total shale gas production in the US.2 The second largest producing basin in the US is the Permian Basin, producing 4.7 Bcfpd in May 2017, followed by the Utica Shale at 4.2 Bcfpd. Similar to the Marcellus, the latter is also located in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. All three plays are at record-high production levels, as total US shale gas production hit a record-high of 44.9 Bcfpd. Not conceivable even a decade ago, advances in horizontal drilling, 3-D seismic technology and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) have had a profound impact on natural gas production in the Lower-48, opening up shale

CERI Commodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial Committee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan Fogwill About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].

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Coast), accounting for 55 percent, followed by PADD II (Midwest) at 22 percent. PADD IV (Rockies) and PADD I (East Coast) are both at 10 percent, but the latter is increasing at a far greater rate. Figure 2: NGLs Production, 2010-2015 (thousand barrels)

Source: EIA5

The shale gas boom in North America has transformed petrochemical manufacturers in the US, Canada and Mexico from high-cost producers of key petrochemicals and resins to some of the lowest-cost producers globally, second only to the Middle East. The US possesses a cost advantage as nearly half of the world’s capacity is configured to operate on heavier feedstock such as naphtha—the single largest feedstock or 45 percent of global capacity. This is followed by ethane at 27 percent, propane, gas oil, butane and other non-specified feedstock to make up 17 percent, and other feedstock at 11 percent. The petrochemical industry has shifted away from naphtha and currently utilizes nearly all ethane production in the US, approximately 35 percent of propane and 25 percent of butane. Traditionally, the US has been a net importer of NGLs. Nevertheless, with the proliferation of shale gas production and the associated NGL production, imports have switched to exports. While well documented, the growth of NGLs lies outside of the glare of the media spotlight, but its impact on the energy landscape is tremendous. The US Gulf Coast is the largest petrochemical cluster in North America, accounting for approximately 47 percent of total US refining. As of January 2016, the 29 petroleum refineries in Texas had a capacity of over 5.4 million

barrels of crude oil per day and accounted for 30% of total US refining capacity.6 Louisiana is, as of January 2016, second only to Texas in both total and operating refinery capacity and has the largest total energy consumption per capita in the US.7 There are more than 300 major chemical plants located in Louisiana. Together the total capacity of the Gulf Coast is close to 10 million bpd.8 Without doubt, the US Gulf Coast petrochemical sector has really taken off in the past decade, fueled in part by the shale gas boom. In addition, the energy, petrochemicals and plastics industry in the US Gulf Coast region certainly benefits from a complex production and transportation infrastructure, such as ports, highways, railroads and pipelines, providing easy access to the rest of the world. Both are located near continental producers and consumers, connected by a vast network of pipelines and to foreign consuming markets, via their proximity to the coast. At 17,597 trillion Btu, Texas leads the US in total energy production, led primarily by crude oil and natural gas production.9 However, even though NGLs production is dominated by the US Gulf Coast, which includes Texas Inland, Texas Gulf Coast, Louisiana, Arkansas and New Mexico, the region’s share has decreased from 60 percent to 55 percent between 2010 and 2017. The share of production in the East Coast, on the other hand, increased from 1 percent to 10 percent over the same period. In terms of specific PADD regions, Appalachian No. 1, located in the heart of the Marcellus and Utica Shale, produced 129,068 thousand barrels in 2016, only behind PADD III’s Texas Inland (492,436 thousand barrels) PADD II’s Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri (140,151 thousand barrels). The states located above the Marcellus and Utica Shale, the largest subset of the Appalachian Basin, are certainly hoping to attract more attention from the petrochemical industry, creating jobs and economic impacts in a region decimated by the phasing out of coal, particularly with the production of ethylene cracking and derivatives to the region. Many hope the building of Shell Chemicals’ US$6 billion ethane cracker in Beaver County, Pennsylvania, will generate additional attention and investment. The facility, located 30 miles northwest of Pittsburgh, is in the heart of the enormous Marcellus Shale and the underlying and rapidly growing Utica Shale. It was

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approved in June 2016 and will likely be on-stream in the 2020s, if construction starts within the next 18 months.10 It will use 100,000 bpd of locally-produced ethane from the Appalachia Basin and have 1.6 million tons per annum (Mtpa) of polyethylene capacity.11 The latter is used in many products, from food packaging and containers to automotive components. It is generally regarded as a ‘building block’ for many products. A recent IHS Markit study, Prospects to Enhance Pennsylvania’s Opportunities in Petrochemical Manufacturing, suggests that the region is an ideal location for the cracker plant and that the area could easily support up to four additional ethane crackers.12 There are already four other major cracker proposed projects in the regions, at various stages of development: PTT Global Chemical (Belmont County, Ohio), Appalachian Resin (Monroe County) and Braskem Ethane Cracker (near Parkersburg, West Virginia). Despite no Final Investment Decision (FID), PTT Global Chemical already has a 168-acre property along the Ohio River to construct a 700,000 tonne per year ethane cracker. Figure 3 illustrates the location of the aforementioned facilities, as well as the location of fractionators, processing plants and NGL pipelines in the area. Figure 3: Marcellus and Utica NGL Existing and Planned Infrastructure

Source: IHS Markit13

According to IHS Markit, natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica Shale reserves accounted for a quarter of all natural gas produced in the US in 2015, and is expected to account for more than 40 percent by 2030.14 Additionally, 40 percent of the natural gas produced is rich in NGLs, more than 70 percent of which is ethane and propane.15 Driven by their natural gas production, Pennsylvania and West Virginia are the third and fourth

largest total energy producers in the US, at 7,087 trillion Btu and 4,154 trillion Btu, respectively — only Texas and Wyoming produce more total energy.16 On the demand side of the equation, Pennsylvania, Ohio and the US Northeast already possess a significant base of existing plastics manufacturers, benefitting from the significant reductions in feedstock costs due to their proximity to the high-quality, low-cost Marcellus and Utica Shale. Figure 4 illustrates the proximity of the Shell Chemicals facility to its potential polyethylene customers. Figure 4: Proximity of North American Polyethylene Demand

Source: Shell17

Currently, ethane from the Marcellus and Utica Shale is transported to the US Gulf Coast or exported to Canada or Europe. Pipelines exporting ethane from the Marcellus to the eastern Canadian market include the Mariner West; the Vantage Pipeline exports ethane to western Canadian markets. The former transports ethane from the Marcellus into Sarnia’s petrochemical complex, using the ethane as feedstock. The Vantage pipeline, on the other hand, transports ethane from the Williston Basin in North Dakota into the Alberta Ethane Gathering System (AEGS), where it is also used as a feedstock at NOVA’s petrochemical complex in Joffre, Alberta.18 Kinder Morgan’s 215-mile UTOPIA will transport ethane from Harrison County, Ohio to Sarnia’s petrochemical complex as well. Much like their US counterparts, Sarnia’s Chemical Valley now relies on a combination of ethane, propane and butane, after switching from heavier petroleum-based naphtha feedstock.19 NOVA Chemicals' Corunna site is a petrochemical complex that produces 1.9 billion pounds of ethylene and up to 1.1 billion pounds of co-products annually.20

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Ethane is also exported from the Marcus Hook terminal located in Pennsylvania. With an export capacity of 35,000 bpd, its first cargo was in March 2016.21 Marcus Hook, located just southwest of Philadelphia, is connected by the Mariner East 1 & 2 pipeline transporting ethane from the Pittsburgh area. Ethane is also exported from Morgan’s Point, Texas; with a capacity of 200,000 bpd, its first shipment was in September 2016.22 Figure 5 illustrates the growth in ethane production in the US, as well as petrochemical capacity and export capacity. As of April 2017, US ethane-ethylene exports are at 168,000 bpd, down slightly from record-high levels of 171,000 bpd in March 2017.23 Prior to January 2014, the US had virtually no imports and exports of ethane, only transported by pipeline within the US. Figure 5: Growth in US Ethane Production, Petrochemical Capacity and Export Capacity (million barrels per day)

Source: EIA24

It is important to note that Canada’s NGL trade balance had been on a downward trend over the past decade, decreasing from a surplus of C$1.9 billion in 1995 to a negative in the first 11 months of 2015.25 Dedicated ethane pipelines, such as the Mariner West and Vantage, as well as the conversion of the Cochin Pipeline from a propane export pipeline to a condensate import pipeline in 2014, built from producing areas in the US to petrochemical facilities in Canada, are certainly having an impact. The combination of abundant gas supply and a large regional polyethylene demand, Shell Chemicals ethane cracker in Pennsylvania could represent an impetus to attract additional investment in petrochemical facilities into the area. Like polyethylene itself, the end-product of the facility, many view the Shell cracker as a “building block” for a future petrochemical hub. Only time will tell.

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Endnotes 1 EIA website, Energy Explained, https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=natural_gas_where 2 EIA website, Energy Explained, Data US Shale Gas Production, https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/data/U.S.%20dry%20shale%20gas%20production.xlsx 3 Ethane is also a petrochemical by-product of petroleum refining. 4 EIA, Natural Gas Liquids Production Data, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_gp_a_EPL0_FPF_mbbl_a.htm 5 EIA website, Natural Gas Liquids Production Data, Natural Gas Liquids Production Data, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_gp_a_EPL0_FPF_mbbl_a.htm 6 EIA website, Texas State Profile and Energy Estimates, https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=TX 7 EIA website, Louisiana State Profile and Energy Estimates, https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=LA#tabs-3 8 EIA website, Number and Capacity of Petroleum Refineries, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_cap1_dcu_R30_a.htm 9 EIA website, Texas Analysis, http://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.cfm?sid=TX 10 ibid 11 Power Source, Shell cracker plant in Beaver County to provide 600 jobs when it opens, June 7, 2016, http://powersource.post-gazette.com/powersource/companies/2016/06/07/Shell-says-Marcellus-cracker-is-a-go-ethane-beaver-county-pennsylvania-pittsburgh/stories/201606070131 12 IHS Markit, Prospects to Enhance Pennsylvania’s Opportunities in Petrochemical Manufacturing, March 2017, https://teampa.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Prospects_to_Enhance_PAs_Opportunities_in_Petrochemical_Mfng_Report_21March2017.pdf , pp. 9 13 ibid, pp. 31 14 ibid, pp. 11 15 ibid, pp. 13 16 EIA website, Rankings: Total Energy Production, 2014 (trillion Btu), https://www.eia.gov/state/rankings/?sid=TX#/series/101

17 Shell website, Shell takes final investment decision to build a new petrochemicals complex in Pennsylvania, US, June 7, 2016, http://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2016/shell-final-investment-decision-petrochemicals-complex-pennsylvania.html 18 EIA website, Today in Energy, US purity ethane ships to Canada for first time in 25 years, May 6, 2014, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=16151 19 Sarnia-Lambton Economic Partnership website, From the Beginning – U.S. Ethane Squeezing Out Canadian Propane/Butane in Sarnia, http://www.sarnialambton.on.ca/beginning-u-s-ethane-squeezing-canadian-propanebutane-sarnia 20 NOVA Chemicals website, Plant Facilities, Corunna Site, http://www.novachem.com/pages/sarnia-lambton/locations-corunna.aspx 21 EIA website, Today in Energy, U.S. ethane production, consumption, and exports expected to increase through 2018, January 17, 2017, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29572 22 ibid 23 EIA website, Petroleum and Other Liquids, US Exports of Ethane-Ethylene, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=METEXUS2&f=M 24 EIA website, Today in Energy, U.S. ethane production, consumption, and exports expected to increase through 2018, January 17, 2017, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29572 25 National Energy Board website, Market Snapshot: Imported value of natural gas liquids surpasses export value in 2015, Release Date: 2016-01-06, https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mrkt/snpsht/2016/01-01mprtdvlngl-eng.html

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20

40

60

80

100

120

140 J

an

-09

Ja

n-1

0J

an

-11

Ja

n-1

2J

an

-13

Ja

n-1

4J

an

-15

Ja

n-1

6J

an

-17

Ind

ustr

ial

Ele

ctr

ic P

ow

er

Co

mm

erc

ial

Resid

en

tial

US

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n

By S

ec

to

r (

Bc

fpd

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 J

an

-09

Ja

n-1

0J

an

-11

Jan

-12

Ja

n-1

3J

an

-14

Ja

n-1

5Ja

n-1

6J

an

-17

US

To

tal

Lo

uis

ian

aG

OM

Fed

era

l W

ate

rsT

exas

US

Ma

rk

eta

ble

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Bc

fpd

)

Page 11: June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 11

SOU

RC

E: S

tati

stics

Can

ada,

NEB

. SO

UR

CE:

Sta

tisti

cs C

anad

a, N

EB.

SOU

RC

E: S

tati

stics

Can

ada,

NEB

. SO

UR

CE:

Sta

tisti

cs C

anad

a, N

EB.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2015

2016

2017

BC

, Y

uk

on

, N

WT

Ma

rk

eta

ble

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Bc

fpd

)

02468

10

12

14

16

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2015

2016

2017

Alb

erta

Ma

rk

eta

ble

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Bc

fpd

)

0.0

0.5

1.0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2015

2016

2017

Sa

sk

atc

he

wa

n M

ark

eta

ble

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Bc

fpd

)

0.0

0

0.2

5

0.5

0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2015

2016

2017

Ea

st C

oa

st M

ark

eta

ble

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Bc

fpd

)

Page 12: June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and

CERI Natural Gas Report

Page 12

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

TC

PL,

Wes

tco

ast

Ener

gy.

No

te:

Alli

ance

del

iver

ies

wer

e n

ot

avai

lab

le b

etw

een

Dec

. 1/1

5 a

nd

Jan

. 16

/16

.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

TC

PL,

Alli

ance

Pip

elin

e.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

02468

10

12

14

16

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2015

2016

2017

Syste

m F

ield

Re

ce

ipts

Tra

nsC

an

ad

a +

We

stc

oa

st; M

on

th

ly A

ve

ra

ge

(B

cfp

d)

01234

Ma

y-1

6J

ul-

16

Se

p-1

6N

ov-1

6J

an

-17

Ma

r-1

7M

ay

-17

Em

ers

on

Iro

qu

ois

Oth

ers

Nia

ga

ra

Ca

na

dia

n G

as E

xp

orts t

o t

he

US

By E

xp

ort P

oin

t -

Ea

st (B

cfp

d)

02468

10

12

14

Ju

n-1

6A

ug

-16

Oct-

16

Dec-1

6F

eb

-17

Ap

r-17

Ju

n-1

7

Em

pre

ss

McN

eill

AB

-BC

Allia

nce

Alb

erta

Syste

m D

elive

rie

s (

Bc

fpd

)

0123456789

Ma

y-1

6J

ul-

16

Se

p-1

6N

ov-1

6Ja

n-1

7M

ar-

17

Ma

y-1

7

Kin

gsg

ate

Mo

nc

hy

Elm

ore

Hu

nti

ng

do

n

Ca

na

dia

n G

as E

xp

orts t

o t

he

US

By E

xp

ort P

oin

t -

We

st (

Bc

fpd

)

Page 13: June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 13

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB, E

IA.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

02468

10

12

May-1

6Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6Jan

-17

Mar-

17

May-1

7

We

st

Mid

wes

tE

as

t

US

Im

po

rts o

f C

an

ad

ian

Ga

sB

y U

S R

eg

ion

(B

cfp

d)

02468

May-1

6Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6Jan

-17

Mar-

17

May-1

7

We

st

Mid

wes

tE

as

t

Ave

ra

ge

Ca

na

dia

n E

xp

ort P

ric

eB

y U

S R

eg

ion (

C$

/GJ

)

02468

10

12 Ap

r-1

6J

un

-16

Au

g-1

6O

ct-

16

De

c-1

6F

eb

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Ca

na

da

Me

xic

o

To

ta

l U

S P

ipe

lin

e G

as I

mp

orts (

Bc

fpd

)

01234

Ma

y-1

6J

ul-

16

Se

p-1

6N

ov-1

6J

an

-17

Ma

r-1

7M

ay

-17

Co

urt

rig

ht

Sa

rnia

St.

Cla

irO

the

r

Ca

na

dia

n G

as I

mp

orts

By I

mpo

rt P

oin

t (

Bcfp

d)

Page 14: June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and

CERI Natural Gas Report

Page 14

SOU

RC

E: U

S. D

OE.

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

No

te:

Ther

e w

ere

no

LN

G im

po

rts

for

the

mo

nth

of

No

vem

ber

20

14

.

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

02468

10

12

14

16

Ma

y-1

5A

ug

-15

No

v-1

5F

eb

-16

Ma

y-1

6A

ug

-16

No

v-1

6F

eb

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Co

ve P

oin

tE

lba Isla

nd

Evere

ttN

E G

ate

way

Nep

tun

e

Ea

ste

rn

US

LN

G I

mp

orts B

y F

ac

ilit

y (

Bc

f)

02468

Ma

y-1

5A

ug

-15

No

v-1

5F

eb

-16

Ma

y-1

6A

ug

-16

No

v-1

6F

eb

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Fre

ep

ort

Lake C

harl

es

Sab

ine P

ass

Cam

ero

nG

old

en

Pass

Gu

lf L

NG

US

Go

M L

NG

Im

po

rts B

y F

ac

ilit

y (

Bc

f)

05

10

15

20

Ma

y-1

5A

ug

-15

No

v-1

5F

eb

-16

Ma

y-1

6A

ug

-16

No

v-1

6F

eb

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Nig

eri

aT

rin

idad

No

rway

Yem

en

US

LN

G I

mp

orts B

y O

rig

in (

Bc

f)

02468

10

12

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2015

2016

2017

Volu

me-W

eig

hted A

verage L

NG

Pric

e (

US

$/M

MB

tu)

Page 15: June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 15

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE,

NEB

.

SOU

RC

E: E

IA, U

S D

OE.

SO

UR

CE:

US

DO

E.

01234567

May

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov-1

5F

eb

-16

Ma

y-1

6A

ug

-16

No

v-1

6F

eb

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Tu

rkey

Bra

zil

Eg

yp

tIn

dia

Arg

en

tin

a

US

LN

G R

e-E

xp

orts

By D

estin

atio

n (B

cf)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 M

ay

-15

Au

g-1

5N

ov-1

5F

eb

-16

Ma

y-1

6A

ug

-16

No

v-1

6F

eb

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Chart

Title

Po

lan

d

Ne

therl

an

ds

Th

ail

an

d

Pa

kis

tan

Ma

lta

Eg

yp

t

So

uth

Ko

rea

Ita

ly

Tu

rkey

Me

xic

o

Do

min

ica

n R

ep

.

Ch

ina

Jo

rdan

Sp

ain

Ch

ile

Ku

wa

it

Arg

en

tin

a

Po

rtu

ga

l

UA

E

Ind

ia

Bra

zil

Ta

iwan

Jap

an

US

LN

G E

xp

orts b

y D

estin

atio

n (

Bc

f)

Page 16: June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and

CERI Natural Gas Report

Page 16

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C, B

aker

Hu

ghes

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, C

AO

DC

.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C.

0

500

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00 Ja

n-0

6J

ul-

07

Jan

-09

Ju

l-1

0J

an

-12

Ju

l-1

3J

an

-15

Ju

l-1

6

US

WC

SB

No

rth

Am

eric

an

Ac

tiv

e R

igs

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,0

00 Jan

-06

Ju

l-07

Jan

-09

Ju

l-10

Jan

-12

Ju

l-13

Jan

-15

Ju

l-16

Acti

ve R

igs

To

tal R

ig D

rillin

g F

leet

Ca

na

dia

n R

ig F

lee

t U

tiliz

atio

nW

ee

kly

Ave

ra

ge

Ac

tiv

e R

igs

-

10

0

20

0

30

0

40

0

50

0

60

0

70

0

80

0

15

913

17

21

25

29

33

37

41

45

49

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.20

16

20

17

We

ste

rn

Ca

na

da

Ac

tiv

e R

igs

We

ek

ly A

ve

ra

ge

We

ek

Nu

mb

er

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C.

0

100

200

300

400

50

0

600

70

0 Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Chart

Title

SK

AB

BC

WC

SB

Ac

tiv

e R

igs b

y P

ro

vin

ce

We

ekly

Ave

ra

ge

Page 17: June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 17

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Bak

er H

ugh

es.

SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, B

aker

Hu

ghe

s.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Bak

er H

ugh

es.

0%

10%

20

%

30%

40

%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90

%

100%

0

20

0

400

600

80

0

1,0

00

1,2

00

1,4

00

1,6

00

1,8

00

2,0

00

2,2

00

2,4

00 Ja

n-0

6J

ul-

07

Ja

n-0

9J

ul-

10

Ja

n-1

2J

ul-

13

Ja

n-1

5J

ul-

16

Oil-d

irec

ted

Gas

-dir

ecte

dG

as

-dir

ecte

d %

US

To

ta

l O

il-

an

d G

as-d

ire

cte

d A

ctiv

e R

igs

0

500

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00 Jan

-06

Ju

l-07

Jan

-09

Ju

l-10

Jan

-12

Ju

l-13

Jan

-15

Ju

l-16

To

tal O

il-d

irecte

dG

oM

Gas-d

irecte

dO

nsh

ore

Gas-d

irecte

d

US

To

ta

l A

ctiv

e R

igs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120 J

an

-06

Ju

l-0

7J

an

-09

Ju

l-1

0J

an

-12

Ju

l-1

3J

an

-15

Ju

l-1

6

Oil-d

irecte

dG

as-d

irecte

d

US

Gu

lf o

f M

ex

ico

Ac

tiv

e R

igs

Page 18: June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and

CERI Natural Gas Report

Page 18

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly, S

tati

stics

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Sta

tisti

cs C

anad

a C

AN

SIM

Tab

le 1

29

-00

05

.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, E

IA.

0

100

200

300

400

50

0

600

70

0

800

900

1,0

00

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Ran

ge

2017

Ca

na

dia

n W

ork

ing

Ga

s S

to

ra

ge

(Bc

f, M

on

th

-en

d)

0

10

0

200

300

40

0

50

0

600

700

800

90

0

1000

May-1

6Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6Jan

-17

Mar-

17

May-1

7

West

East

Ca

na

dia

n S

to

ra

ge

by R

eg

ion

(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

0

500

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

5,0

00

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Avg

.2016

2017

US

Lo

we

r-4

8 W

ork

ing

Ga

s S

to

ra

ge

(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

0

500

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

Ju

n-1

6A

ug

-16

Oct-

16

De

c-1

6F

eb

-17

Ap

r-17

Ju

n-1

7

East

Mid

west

Mo

un

tain

Pacif

icS

ou

th C

en

tral

US

Sto

ra

ge

by R

eg

ion

(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

•Im

po

rtan

t N

ote

: So

urc

e o

f C

anad

ian

sto

rage

dat

a is

in

tra

nsi

tio

n,

fro

m P

latt

's G

as D

aily

to

Sta

tisti

cs

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5 -

Can

adia

n m

on

thly

nat

ura

l gas

sto

rage

, C

anad

a an

d p

rovi

nce

s. 2

01

6

dat

a an

d o

nw

ard

s is

no

w c

olle

cted

fro

m t

he

latt

er w

hile

dat

a p

rio

r to

20

16

is f

rom

th

e fo

rmer

.

Page 19: June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 19

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly, S

tati

stics

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tt’s

Gas

Dai

ly, S

tati

stics

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tt’s

Gas

Dai

ly, S

tati

stics

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5.

-60

-20

20

60

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

WC

_IJ

_W

D

5-Y

ear

Avg

.2016

2017

We

ste

rn

Ca

na

dia

n S

to

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

-80

-60

-40

-200

20

40

60

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Avg

.2016

2017

Ea

ste

rn

Ca

na

dia

n S

to

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(Bc

f, M

on

th

-en

d)

-150

-100

-500

50

100

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Avg

.2016

2017

Ca

na

dia

n S

to

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(Bcf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

Page 20: June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and

CERI Natural Gas Report

Page 20

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, E

IA.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

.

-250

-200

-150

-100

-500

50

10

0

150

200

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Avg

.2016

2017

US

Ea

st S

to

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

-300

-200

-1000

100

200

300

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Avg

.2016

2017

US

Mid

we

st R

eg

ion

Sto

ra

ge

Inje

ctio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-100

10

20

30

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Avg

.2016

2017

US

Mo

un

ta

in R

eg

ion

Sto

ra

ge

Inje

ctio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(Bc

f, M

on

th

-en

d)

-80

-60

-40

-200

20

40

60

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Avg

.2016

2017

US

Pa

cif

ic R

eg

ion

Sto

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

.

Page 21: June 2017 CERI Natural Gas Report · CERI Natural Gas Report Pennsylvania Gets (Ethane) Cracking Paul Kralovic The Marcellus Shale, located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 21

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, E

IA.

-300

-200

-1000

100

200

300

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Avg

.2016

2017

US

So

uth

Ce

ntra

l R

eg

ion

Sto

ra

ge

Inje

ctio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(Bcf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-2000

200

400

600

800

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Avg

.2016

2017

US

Sto

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(Bcf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)