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June 2012 Edition PURPLEPOLL - Purple Strategies
Transcript of June 2012 Edition PURPLEPOLL - Purple Strategies
PURPLEPOLLJune 2012 Edition
WHY THE PURPLEPOLL?In 2012, a dozen states will decide whether President Obama
is elected to a second term. The PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the Purple Electorate - likely voters only in these swing states. Updated
regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll offers a unique lens through which you can gather original insight into this critical election.
The PurplePoll has built a reputation for accurate, unbiased and cutting-edge polling and analysis. It has been cited on television, in print,
and online by sources that span the political spectrum, including: MSNBC, Fox News, ABC News, the Wall Street Journal, Talking Points Memo, Slate, Politico, the National Review and dozens of others. And we will continue to
bring you this analysis through the November election, and beyond.
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]]
or Bruce Haynes [[email protected]], at 703-548-7877.
To subscribe, e-mail us at [email protected].
PURPLE INSIGHTS
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Romney improves across Purple States and leads in Ohio and Florida; Obama still leads in Purple America, Virginia and Colorado.
Mitt Romney is closing the gap with President Obama across Purple States, as Republicans consolidate and independents lean toward Romney.
Our last two Purple Polls showed President Obama and Mitt Romney with a 4-point ballot gap. June’s results show this gap has shrunk to 2 points, a statistical dead heat. The results show Barack Obama with 48% and Mitt Romney with 46% of the vote; 7% remain undecided. This marks the first time since January that the candidates were within 2 points of each other in these critical Purple States. Despite still trailing, Mitt Romney has reached his highest vote total since our tracking began in September of 2011.
Romney continues to consolidate support among Republicans (86%, up from 82% in April). At the same time, President Obama has seen his support among independents shrink by 4 points, to 40%. Obama continues to lead Romney among women (by 9 points), though that lead has shrunk from 11 points in April.
Purple Predictor States: Obama holds slim leads in Virginia and Colorado, while Romney leads in Florida and has moved up in Ohio.
Since our last poll, President Obama has improved his position in Virginia (49% to 46%, up 1 point from April) and Colorado (48% to 46%, tied at 47% in April). Mitt Romney has expanded his lead from 2 points to 4 in Florida (49% to 45%).
The largest movement we have seen since April is in Ohio: in our last poll, Obama led Romney by 5 points (49% to 44%). Today, Romney has taken a 3-point lead in the state, 48% to 45%. His strength in the state is fueled by a nearly complete consolidation of Republicans, with 91% offering him their support. This is higher than his support among GOP voters in the other three Purple Predictor States, which ranges from 83% to 87%.
President Obama’s job performance and Mitt Romney’s favorability point to the fickle nature of independents in Purple States.
Purple’s June results show President Obama’s job approval rating continues to be inverted: 47% approve of his job performance, and 49% disapprove. Since the last poll, his approval rating fell 2 points and his disapproval rating gained 5 points among independent voters (38% approve / 57% disapprove).
Mitt Romney is also having trouble connecting with voters. Today, 39% have a favorable view, 49% unfavorable. While these numbers showed a large bump in our April poll, they are unchanged since. He also has problems among independent voters: 39% have a favorable view, 47% unfavorable.
At this early stage, Romney appears to have an upper hand with independents, but they are clearly disenchanted with both candidates.
Purple State voters continue to have a gloomy outlook.
The initial improvement we had been seeing in perceptions about the country’s direction has stalled out. Between November and March, the share of Purple State voters who agreed that the country was moving in the right direction increased by 16 points, (from 20% to 36%), while those who thought the country was seriously off on the wrong track declined by 14 points (from 71% to 57%). Since then, these numbers haven’t changed (36% right direction, 57% wrong track).
Perhaps more problematic, Purple State voters are concerned about long-term, fundamental decline in America. Forty-seven percent (47%) agree with the statement “this is the start of a longer-term decline where the US is no longer the leading country in the world.” By contrast, 45% believe “we are experiencing the kind of tough times the country faces from time to time.” This pessimism about America’s future is particularly acute among independent voters, among whom a majority (53%) believes that we are on the verge of long-term decline.
Hedge fund/private equity arguments may provide a key wedge issue for Obama, though the argument appears to fall short in two of the four key predictor states.
Discussion of private equity and venture capital has moved front and center in the Presidential debate. To take a closer look, we explored arguments from the Obama and Romney campaigns (without specific reference to the candidates) about private equity and asked people to choose which one came closer to their view.
PURPLEPOLLJune 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877. PURPLE ANALYSIS
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For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877. PURPLE ANALYSIS
Overall, the Obama campaign position on private investment firms outperforms that of the Romney campaign: 47% believe that private investment firms hurt workers and cut jobs, while 38% believe that they foster economic growth and create jobs.
Across Purple States, this argument has the hallmarks of a classic wedge issue for the President: it consolidates Democrats (64% to 22%) and has a plurality of support among independents (48% to 38%).
However, in the Purple Predictor States, the results are more mixed. The President’s argument carries the strongest weight in Ohio (+16) and in Florida (+7). It is much more even in Colorado (+1) and Virginia (-2) – the predictor states that have better weathered the storm. While the overall results on this argument appear to bode well for the President, the electoral map dynamics may argue for a more subtle state-by-state strategy.
Purple State voters across parties agree: Let’s take a break from the constant campaign!
With five months to go before Election Day, we asked Purple State voters to choose whether they were “looking forward to hearing more from the candidates over the next five months as [they] prepare to make [their] choice for President,” or if they agreed that “we’d be better off if both presidential candidates stopped campaigning until Labor Day, and shortened the campaign to the two months after that. That would be more than enough time.” Sixty-one percent (61%) said that we’d be better off if the candidates took
a break until Labor Day. Just 32% are looking forward to hearing more over the next five months.
With a highly polarized electorate, this is one of the only questions we’ve asked that found bipartisan support: majorities of Republicans (63%), Democrats (56%) and independents (66%) would like to see a campaign ceasefire until September. Indeed, there is no single subgroup among which a majority thinks otherwise.
With dozens of speeches, campaign events, tours, and over a billion dollars in TV ad spending and attack ads ahead of us, Purple State voters are communicating with one voice: let’s take a break.
Purple Descriptors: Among independents, Obama has a strong advantage on caring about the middle class, while Romney has the edge on jobs and leading us into the future.
In this poll, we once again look at candidate descriptors. Campaigns turn to these to understand where the electorate is moving – it’s a look underneath the vote.
A striking general finding is that across every metric, President Obama lags behind Romney more among independents than he does overall. For example, President Obama holds a solid lead on “cares more about the middle class” (+13), though that lead is weaker among independents (+10). By contrast, Mitt Romney has a slight 1-point advantage on “knows what it takes to create jobs,” which climbs to 12 points among independents.
Obama holds an advantage on “has new ideas to lead us into the future” overall (+2), but trails Romney among independents (Romney +8).
Purple State voters as a whole believe that “a typical politician” equally describes both candidates (41%), but independents believe it best describes Obama by 1 point. And Romney’s 6-point overall advantage on “will change the way Washington does business” expands to 13 points among independents.
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For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
Direction of the CountryRight Direction: 36% Wrong Track: 57% Not sure: 7%
Obama vs. RomneyObama: 48% Romney: 46%Not sure: 7%
Impact of Private EquityPrivate equity helps economy: 38% Private equity hurts workers: 47%Not sure: 15%
Just Tough Times or Long-Term DeclineTough Times: 45% Long Term Decline: 47%Not sure: 8%
Views About the ElectionLooking forward to next five months: 32% Could wait until Labor Day: 61%Not sure: 7%
Obama JobApprove: 47% Disapprove: 49% Not sure: 4%
Romney FavorabilityFavorable: 39%Unfavorable: 49%Not sure: 12%
OVERALL:
PURPLE OVERALL
WHAT IS THE PURPLEPOLL?Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the 12 states that are most likely to determine whether President Obama will win re-election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
These states were won by President Obama en route to his 365 electoral votes. Since 1996, nine of these states have swung between the Republican and Democratic candidates. Three states (MN, PA, and WI) have been decided by 3 points or less at least once since 2000. The voters in these states have held the presidential election balance for the past dozen years, and will continue to do so in 2012.
Updated regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll will follow leading political indicators and track new issues as they emerge. It will offer a unique lens to gather original insight into this critical election.
In addition to data from the overall Purple electorate, we divide the data into regional state clusters: “The Wild West” (CO, NV, NM), “The Heartland” (IA, MN, WI), “The Rust Belt” (NH, OH, PA) and “The Southern Swing” (NC, VA, FL). These groupings help provide more texture to our results. We also include statewide results for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.
The PurplePoll is fielded and analyzed by Purple Insights, the research division of Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public affairs firm.
Fielded 5/31-6/5, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=2000 likely voters, margin of error +/-2.2. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.0. Sample size for OH, FL, VA and CO is 600.
PURPLEPOLLJune 2012
ABOUT PURPLE STRATEGIESPurple is a fully integrated, bipartisan team that excels at merging red and blue perspectives to find effective strategic solutions. We look to build a consensus that will support a public affairs initiative, influence a debate or stimulate change. Our team includes experts in opinion research, strategic communications, grassroots, government affairs, digital communications and creative.
Recognizing the need for a balanced, bipartisan approach to corporate communications and issue advocacy, Alex Castellanos and Steve McMahon merged two well-established Republican and Democratic firms – National Media and Issue & Image – to create Purple Strategies. By joining forces, Purple brings together strategists and communication specialists from across the political spectrum, including veteran political strategists Bruce Haynes, Mark Squier, Rob Collins and Jim Jordan.
For more: www.purplestrategies.com
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PURPLEPOLLJune 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
VirginiaColorado
PURPLE PREDICTOR STATES
Direction of the Country Direction of the CountryRight Direction: 37% Wrong Track: 57% Not sure: 6%
Right Direction: 36% Wrong Track: 58% Not sure: 6%
Obama vs. RomneyObama: 48% Romney: 46%Not sure: 5%
Obama vs. RomneyObama: 49% Romney: 46%Not sure: 5%
Impact of Private EquityPrivate equity helps economy: 43% Private equity hurts workers: 44%Not sure: 13%
Impact of Private EquityPrivate equity helps economy: 44% Private equity hurts workers: 42%Not sure: 14%
Just Tough Times or Long-Term DeclineTough Times: 47% Long Term Decline: 46%Not sure: 7%
Just Tough Times or Long-Term DeclineTough Times: 50% Long Term Decline: 44%Not sure: 5%
Views About the ElectionLooking forward to next five months: 30% Could wait until Labor Day: 63%Not sure: 7%
Views About the ElectionLooking forward to next five months: 34% Could wait until Labor Day: 59%Not sure: 7%
Obama JobApprove: 48% Disapprove: 48% Not sure: 5%
Obama JobApprove: 45% Disapprove: 51% Not sure: 5%
Romney FavorabilityFavorable: 42%Unfavorable: 50%Not sure: 7%
Romney FavorabilityFavorable: 43%Unfavorable: 49%Not sure: 8%
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PURPLEPOLLJune 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
Ohio Florida
PURPLE PREDICTOR STATES
Direction of the Country Direction of the CountryRight Direction: 31% Wrong Track: 62% Not sure: 6%
Right Direction: 36% Wrong Track: 56% Not sure: 8%
Obama vs. RomneyObama: 45% Romney: 48%Not sure: 8%
Obama vs. RomneyObama: 45% Romney: 49%Not sure: 6%
Impact of Private EquityPrivate equity helps economy: 33% Private equity hurts workers: 49%Not sure: 18%
Impact of Private EquityPrivate equity helps economy: 40% Private equity hurts workers: 47%Not sure: 14%
Just Tough Times or Long-Term DeclineTough Times: 39% Long Term Decline: 54%Not sure: 8%
Just Tough Times or Long-Term DeclineTough Times: 41% Long Term Decline: 49%Not sure: 10%
Views About the ElectionLooking forward to next five months: 29% Could wait until Labor Day: 65%Not sure: 6%
Views About the ElectionLooking forward to next five months: 33% Could wait until Labor Day: 59%Not sure: 8%
Obama JobApprove: 43% Disapprove: 52% Not sure: 5%
Obama JobApprove: 45% Disapprove: 50% Not sure: 5%
Romney FavorabilityFavorable: 38%Unfavorable: 48%Not sure: 13%
Romney FavorabilityFavorable: 43%Unfavorable: 47%Not sure: 11%
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PURPLEPOLLJune 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, VirginiaPURPLE TRACKING
20%22%
36% 36%32%
71% 69%
60%57% 57%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Wrong Track
Right Direction
Not Sure
Nov. ‘11 Dec. ‘12 Feb.‘12 Mar. ‘12 Jun. ‘12
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%Sep. ‘11 Nov. ‘11 Dec. ‘11 Jan. ‘12 Feb. ‘12 Mar. ‘12 Apr. ‘12 Jun‘12
53% 53%
41% 41% 41%45% 44%
46% 47% 47%
50% 50% 50% 48% 49%52%
Disapprove
Approve
Not Sure
57% 56%
48% 49%54%
47%45%
39%
27%29%
38% 39%
30%29%30%32%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Unfavorable
Favorable
Not Sure
Sep. ‘11 Nov. ‘11 Dec. ‘11 Jan. ‘12 Feb. ‘12 Mar. ‘12 Apr. ‘12 Jun ‘12
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%Sep. ‘11 Nov. ‘11 Dec. ‘11 Jan. ‘12 Feb. ‘12 Mar. ‘12 Apr. ‘12 Jun. ‘12
46%
46%43% 43% 44% 44% 44%43%
46%45%
45%
47% 47% 48%48% 48%
Mitt Romney
Barack Obama
Not Sure
Direction of the Country Obama Job Approval
Romney Favorability Obama vs. Romney
PURPLE OVERALL
37
54
9
34
50
15
41
48
11
42
50
7
43
49
8
38
48
13
43
47
11
47
49
4
44
47
9
52
44
4
46
51
3
45
51
4
48
48
5
45
51
5
43
52
5
45
50
5
49
46
4
10
87
3
38
57
5
85
12
3
47
49
5
47
50
3
44
53
3
43
47
10
35
51
14
68
18
14
39
47
14
13
78
9
38
48
14
40
50
10
47
48
5
36
57
7
36
57
7
32
60
9
-
-
-
-
-
-
22
69
9
20
71
9
34
59
7
40
51
9
34
60
6
33
59
8
37
57
6
36
58
6
31
62
6
36
56
8
34
59
6
37
55
8
10
87
4
27
66
7
64
26
10
36
56
9
36
59
5
-
-
-
47
49
4
46
50
4
44
50
6
45
50
6
41
53
6
41
52
6
41
53
7
38
48
15
48
46
7
48
44
8
48
44
8
47
43
10
46
44
10
47
43
11
45
45
11
43
46
11
46
48
6
54
38
8
47
45
8
45
48
7
48
46
5
49
46
5
45
48
8
45
49
6
44
49
6
51
42
7
10
86
4
40
46
14
86
11
4
48
44
8
47
48
5
39
49
12
29
56
14
27
57
16
30
54
16
29
47
24
30
45
25
32
39
29
42
40
18
41
42
17
48
33
19
44
38
18
40
43
17
45
39
16
42
42
16
38
42
20
41
42
17
39
45
16
45
36
19
10
73
17
34
42
24
76
10
14
42
38
21
43
43
14
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
42
41
17
41
41
18
43
40
17
36
47
16
38
44
17
46
37
17
37
44
19
41
40
19
37
42
21
44
37
19
45
39
16
38
42
20
63
20
18
41
40
19
23
59
17
41
38
21
41
44
15
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Sep‘11
Gender Party Education
Not sure
Not sure
Not sure
Not Sure
Not Sure
Not Sure
Wrong track
Disapprove
Unfavorable
Romney
Romney
Romney
Right direction
Approve
Favorable
Obama
Obama
Obama
%% % % % % % %
Are things in this country generally going in the right direction or are they pretty
seriously off on the wrong track?
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is
doing as president?
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of
Mitt Romney?
Has new ideas to lead us into the future?
A typical politician?
If the 2012 presidential election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom
would you vote?
Fielded 5/31-6/5, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=2000 likely voters, margin of error +/- 2.2. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.0. Sample size for OH, FL, VA and CO is 600.
June 2012 Main Questionnaire Region By State
Male Female GOP Ind Dem Coll+Non-CollDec‘11 Nov‘11 Sep‘11Jan’12Feb’12April-12Total Mar’12
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PURPLEPOLLJune 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
PURPLE JUNE 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE
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PURPLEPOLLJune 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
PURPLE JUNE 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE
49
36
15
46
40
14
53
33
14
47
33
19
49
38
13
50
37
13
49
39
12
46
34
20
48
39
13
47
39
14
52
33
15
14
67
18
46
36
18
82
9
9
47
35
18
52
37
11
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
42
43
15
37
47
16
48
39
13
40
43
17
42
44
14
40
43
17
43
47
10
40
43
17
42
45
13
39
48
13
45
39
16
8
80
12
33
45
23
78
11
11
43
42
15
41
45
15
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
48
44
9
48
43
9
48
44
8
43
48
9
47
46
7
51
40
9
47
46
7
49
44
7
46
45
9
50
42
7
51
42
6
45
45
11
78
16
6
48
40
12
22
70
8
48
41
11
47
47
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
32
38
30
-
-
-
29
40
32
37
33
30
29
37
34
32
38
30
29
37
34
31
36
33
28
37
35
32
41
27
30
41
30
34
35
31
11
65
25
24
37
40
55
16
29
32
39
28
31
36
33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Sep‘11
Gender Party Education
Not Sure
Not Sure
Not Sure
Not Sure
Not Sure
Not Sure
Romney
Romney
Romney
Romney
Long Term Decline
Could wait until Labor Day
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Tough Times
Looking forward to the next five months
Private equity helps economyPrivate equity hurts workers
Not sure
%% % % % % % %
Cares more about the middle class?
Knows what it takes to create jobs?
I have serious concerns about what he would do to the country
over the next four years.
Will change the way Washington does business.
Impactof private
equity.
Just tough times or long-term decline?
ViewsAbout theElection.
Fielded 5/31-6/5, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=2000 likely voters, margin of error +/- 2.2. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.0. Sample size for OH, FL, VA and CO is 600.
June 2012 Main Questionnaire Region By State
Male Female GOP Ind Dem Coll+Non-CollDec‘11 Nov‘11 Sep‘11Jan’12Feb’12April-12Total Mar’12
38
47
15
45
47
8
32
61
7
32
59
10
32
63
6
29
64
7
34
58
8
30
63
7
34
59
7
29
65
6
33
59
8
32
61
6
31
61
8
29
63
8
26
66
8
38
56
6
36
56
8
26
67
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
44
50
6
49
44
7
42
50
8
43
49
8
47
46
7
50
44
5
39
54
8
41
49
10
43
52
5
46
44
10
24
69
7
39
53
7
66
25
8
45
47
8
45
48
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
41
45
14
35
48
17
35
50
15
40
46
14
43
44
13
44
42
14
33
49
18
40
47
14
44
47
9
33
47
20
57
26
17
38
48
14
22
64
14
37
46
17
39
48
13
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
37
57
6
31
62
6
36
56
8
36
58
6
48
48
5
43
52
5
45
50
5
45
51
5
42
50
7
38
48
13
43
47
11
43
49
8
48
46
5
45
48
8
45
49
6
49
46
5
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
43
53
4
47
47
5
46
50
4
45
50
6
36
51
14
34
54
12
45
44
12
36
48
16
47
47
6
49
44
7
45
47
7
48
46
6
34
58
8
29
65
5
39
54
7
30
66
4
46
50
4
40
55
6
44
51
5
38
60
2
46
49
5
44
45
11
48
44
8
48
45
7
45
50
5
39
51
10
44
51
6
42
52
6
39
56
5
33
59
7
34
58
9
41
52
7
50
46
5
46
49
4
45
50
5
50
43
6
39
51
9
33
51
15
38
48
13
38
53
9
51
43
6
50
44
6
46
48
7
54
41
4
12
84
4
7
92
1
9
86
5
6
91
3
13
82
5
6
92
2
11
84
5
8
91
1
74
18
8
70
15
15
71
20
9
76
17
7
11
85
4
3
91
6
13
83
4
11
87
2
25
71
5
27
63
10
28
63
9
25
72
4
37
58
4
42
49
8
35
60
5
36
57
7
44
49
7
37
48
16
48
39
13
41
45
14
45
47
8
44
42
14
34
54
12
38
50
12
70
21
9
57
35
9
67
23
10
74
17
9
88
8
4
78
17
5
84
11
4
87
7
6
14
80
7
11
79
10
12
77
11
12
83
5
84
12
4
82
12
5
82
13
5
93
4
3
34
60
6
31
61
8
35
56
10
34
60
6
43
51
5
41
53
6
44
51
5
45
50
5
44
48
8
39
45
15
42
44
13
42
50
8
45
48
7
42
48
10
44
49
8
50
44
6
39
55
6
32
64
5
38
57
6
38
57
5
51
44
4
47
51
3
46
50
4
44
52
4
41
52
7
38
52
10
43
49
8
44
48
8
51
45
4
48
47
5
45
50
4
47
48
4
Gender Gender
Gender Gender
Party Party
Party Party
Education Education
Education Education
Not sure Not sure
Not sure Not sure
Not sure Not sure
Not sure Not sure
Not sure Not sure
Not sure Not sure
Not Sure Not Sure
Not Sure Not Sure
Wrong track Wrong track
Wrong track Wrong track
Disapprove Disapprove
Disapprove Disapprove
Unfavorable Unfavorable
Unfavorable Unfavorable
Romney Romney
Romney Romney
Right direction Right direction
Right direction Right direction
Approve Approve
Approve Approve
Favorable Favorable
Favorable Favorable
Obama Obama
Obama Obama
% %
% %
% %
% %
Directionof theCountry
Directionof theCountry
Directionof theCountry
Directionof theCountry
Obama Job Obama Job
Obama Job Obama Job
Romney Favorability
Romney Favorability
Romney Favorability
Romney Favorability
Obama vs. Romney
Obama vs. Romney
Obama vs. Romney
Obama vs. Romney
COLORADO VIRGINIA
OHIO FLORIDA
Male Male
Male Male
Female Female
Female Female
GOP GOP
GOP GOP
Ind Ind
Ind Ind
Dem Dem
Dem Dem
Coll+ Coll+
Coll+ Coll+
Non- Coll Non- Coll
Non- Coll Non- Coll
April-12 April-12
April-12 April-12
Total Total
Total Total
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For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
PURPLEPOLLJune 2012
PURPLE JUNE 2012 STATE RESULTS
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
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PURPLEPOLLJune 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
PURPLE JUNE 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE
1. Are things in this country generally going in the right direction or are they pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
1) Right Direction
2) Wrong Track
3) Not sure
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
1) Approve
2) Disapprove
3) Not sure
3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mitt Romney?
1) Favorable
2) Unfavorable
3) Not sure
4. If the 2012 presidential election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?
1) Barack Obama
2) Mitt Romney
3) Not sure
You will now hear a series of phrases. For each one, if the phrase better describes Barack Obama, press 1 and if the phrase better describes Mitt Romney, press 2. If you are not sure, press 3.
5. Has new ideas to lead us into the future.
6. A typical politician.
7. Cares more about the middle class.
8. Knows what it takes to create jobs.
9. I have serious concerns about what he would do to the country over the next four years.
10. Will change the way Washington does business.
11. Which of the following comes closer to your view?
1) Private investment and equity firms help the American economy grow. They launch new companies and rebuild existing ones, including some of the biggest employers in America. Their work has created millions of jobs, and will help drive America’s recovery.
2) Private investment and equity firms care only about profits and short-term gains for investors. When they come in, workers get laid off, benefits disappear, and pensions are cut. Investors walk off with big returns, and working folks get stuck holding the bag.
3) Not sure
12. All in all, do you feel we are experiencing the kind of tough times the country faces from time to time, or is this the start of a longer-term decline where the US is no longer the leading country in the world?
1) Tough Times
2) Long Term Decline
3) Not sure
13. Which of the following comes closer to your view?
1) I’m looking forward to hearing more from the candidates over the next five months as I prepare to make my choice for President.
2) We’d be better off if both presidential candidates stopped campaigning until Labor Day, and shorten the campaign to the two months after that. That would be more than enough time.
3) Not sure
June 2012 Main Questionnaire
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PURPLEPOLLJune 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
Has new ideas to lead us into the future
A typical politician (June ‘12)
A typical politician (April ‘12)
Cares more about the middle class
Knows what it takes to create jobs
I have serious concerns about what he would do tothe country over the next four years (June ‘12)
I have serious concerns about what he would do tothe country over the next four years (April ‘12)
Will change the way Washington does business
*slight differences due to rounding
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
0 0
42 34
41 41
42 43
49 46
42 33
48 48
48 48
32 24
40 42
41 40
41 39
36 36
43 45
44 40
43 37
38 37
2 8
0 1
1 4
13 10
1 12
4 8
5 11
6 13
OVERALL INDEPENDENTSADV.* ADV.*
PURPLE DESCRIPTOR TRACKING RESULTS